Who will be the next army chief?

Whomever Raheel Shareef likely prefers. Unlike his own promotion, there is now a good understanding between the gov and military, so there will likely be less interference with military affairs.

 

Someone recommended by Raheel Sharief and National security advisor

 

SOURCE: DAWN NEWS
http://www.dawn.com/news/1277442/who-will-be-the-next-army-chief
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After Gen Musharraf, all four-star generals in the army — Gen Tariq Majid, Gen Khalid Shamim Wynne, Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Gen Rashad Mehmood and Gen Raheel Sharif — were from the infantry. Gen Musharraf was the last four-star general from the artillery — a trend that has been attributed to the army’s engagement with the ‘war on terrorism’.

Historically, of the last 14 four-star generals, nine had served as chief of general staff (CGS), which is the most prestigious office after the army chief, as it is the organisational lead on both intelligence and operations. This time, both Gen Zubair, the incumbent CGS, and Gen Ishfaq, the previous CGS, are in the run for the two four-star vacancies.

Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee

The appointment of the CJCSC — a position that will fall vacant on the same day as army chief’s — is a major complicating factor in the appointment of the next COAS.

Theoretically, the CJCSC has to be the senior-most four-star officer from any of the three services — army, navy and air force. However, since the establishment of the National Command Authority (NCA), the army has staked a claim to its leadership, because it controls the key areas of nuclear command and strategic assets. The CJCSC is the deputy chairman of NCA’s deployment committee, which is headed by the prime minister.

The position, though a ceremonial one, is in principle senior to the office of the army chief, therefore, a senior general would have to be appointed. It is generally believed that the government would not reverse the seniority order by putting a relatively junior general in the office of CJCSC.


Lt Gen Zubair Hayat


The selection process

The process of both men’s appointment starts with the prime minister asking the General Headquarters (GHQ) via the defence ministry for the personal dossiers of the top six lieutenant generals. The dossiers mention the eligibility of the candidates, but other than that, officials say, there is no formal recommendation from the outgoing army chief at that stage. The only person who can make a recommendation, as per the procedure, is the defence minister. But the incumbent, Khawaja Asif, seems to be following a hands-off policy vis-à-vis the army, and is not expected to get too involved in the process.

The prime minister subsequently holds a one-on-one consultation with the army chief on prospective candidates.

“Gen Raheel Sharif would not like to become controversial and would not like the prime minister to use his recommendation as an excuse to distort the seniority list,” a retired general commented when asked who Gen Sharif’s preference could be.

A politician believed to be close to the prime minister was of the opinion that while assessing the suitability of the candidates for promotion, PM Sharif would specifically take into consideration his working relationship with those who, due to official assignments, had interacted with him frequently. In addition, the position of the candidates on political developments in the country, particularly their stance during the 2014 dharna, will also be a deciding factor. It may be recalled that some corps commanders reportedly counselled restraint when there was pressure on Gen Sharif from other generals to act during the sit-in. For this, it is said, the prime minister will be relying on intelligence reports he has been receiving.

Another consideration likely to be taken into account would be the prospective candidates’ views on foreign policy issues, particularly ties with India.

The next army chief would be required to preside over the military’s withdrawal from kinetic operations in the tribal areas. Due to its prolonged engagement with counter-militancy operations, most of the army’s infantry units have served around three rotations in militancy-hit areas. This, officers say, has caused war-weariness and begun to affect their professionalism.

The candidates

Lt Gen Zubair Hayat is from the artillery and the serving CGS. As a three-star general, he was previously posted as director general of the Strategic Plans Division (SPD), which is the secretariat of the NCA; and corps commander Bahawalpur. This makes him an ideal choice for the post of CJCSC, who has an almost exclusive jurisdiction over nuclear forces and assets.

It is very rare for someone posted at the SPD to go back to the army. Therefore, many see in his return to the GHQ within a year and half of his transfer to the SPD an ambitious rise to a four-star position.




His postings as CGS and DG SPD afforded him an opportunity to work very closely with PM Sharif and Finance Minister Ishaq Dar.

During his tenure as a major general, he was general officer commanding (GOC) Sialkot and later headed the Staff Duties (SD) Directorate, whose personnel are commonly known in the army as ‘paper tigers’. His stay at the directorate and his earlier posting as principal staff officer to the army chief brought him closer to Gen Kayani, and he is generally seen as Gen Kayani’s protégé.

However, his primary shortcoming is that he has never served in a conflict zone.

Some of those who worked with him describe him as “workaholic” and a “vociferous reader”.

He is also said to have a very sharp memory.

Gen Zubair is a second generation officer. His father retired as a major general, while two of his brothers are generals: Pakistan Ordnance Factories Wah Chairman Lt Gen Omar Hayat and Inter-Services Intelligence DG (Analysis) Maj Gen Ahmad Mahmood Hayat.

The other potential pick is Lt Gen Ishfaq Nadeem Ahmed, who is considered to have had a ‘textbook career’. He is currently serving as Multan corps commander and has previously served as CGS.

Gen Ishfaq’s appointment as CGS was one of the first few things Gen Raheel Sharif did when he took charge as army chief, and many see him as the man behind Gen Sharif’s successes.

Gen Sharif’s claim to fame has been his successful campaign in North Waziristan, which is known as Zarb-i-Azb. But it is little known that the blueprint for the operation had been prepared by Gen Ishfaq as director general of military operations (DMGO). PM Sharif had received a briefing at the GHQ on the plan for North Waziristan and approved it in principle in August 2013.

Gen Ishfaq also took part in the Swat operation as a major general and served in Waziristan as a brigadier.

Due to his involvement with the operations directorate, which started when he was a lieutenant colonel, several army officers say that no one understands operations better than him.

He is currently leading the mechanised corps, which is considered a major honour for an officer from infantry.

Moreover, he belongs to the Azad Kashmir Regiment. Therefore, his elevation as army chief would be a rare achievement for that smaller group within the military.

His detractors, however, say that he is very assertive and blunt. “As CGS, he frequently visited PM House for meetings, where his blunt and candid views did not usually go down well with the prime minister,” a source said. He is otherwise deeply apolitical and will be difficult for the government to ignore.

To quote a young officer, his supersession may create disquiet among the ranks, because he is held in very high esteem.

Lt Gen Javed Iqbal Ramday is now leading the Bahawalpur corps and was previously president of the National Defence University in Islamabad.

He served as GOC Swat during the operation there. In 2011, he was injured by sniper fire on his helicopter by militants over the mountainous part of Swat. For the next four years he was at the NDU, first as commandant and chief instructor, and then as president. He hails from the infantry’s Sindh Regiment.

“Lt Gen Ramday is a very capable and intellectually sound officer,” one of his former bosses remarked.

Due to his family’s political background, he is being described by some political analysts as the PML-N’s preferred choice. Public talk about his family’s political affiliations could potentially spoil his prospects.

He is reportedly also related to a former Supreme Court judge, retired Justice Khalilur Rehman Ramday.

One of his relatives, Brig Anwarul Haq Ramday, was killed in the terrorist attack on the GHQ in 2009.

Lt Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa is something of a dark horse in this race and someone who needs to be closely watched. Currently serving at the GHQ as Inspector General of Training and Evaluation — the position Gen Sharif held before becoming army chief — he has commanded the 10 Corps, the army’s largest, which is responsible for the area along the Line of Control (LoC).

Lt Gen Bajwa has extensive experience of handling affairs in Kashmir and the northern areas of the country. As a major general, he led the Force Command Northern Areas. He also served in the 10 Corps as lieutenant colonel, where he was GSO.

Despite his extensive involvement with Kashmir and northern areas, he is said to consider extremism a bigger threat for the country than India.

Lt Gen Bajwa has served with a UN mission in Congo as a brigade commander alongside former Indian army chief Gen Bikram Singh, who was also there as a division commander.

He has previously also remained the commandant of the Infantry School in Quetta.

His military colleagues say he is not attention-seeking and remains well-connected with his troops.

“He is extremely professional, but very easy-going and full of compassion,” an officer who had served under him said, adding that he was not protocol-minded either. Gen Bajwa is also said to be an apolitical person without any biases.

He is from the infantry’s Baloch Regiment, which has given three officers to the post of army chief — Gen Yahya Khan, Gen Aslam Beg and Gen Kayani.

Published in Dawn, Au

General ishfaq and Lt gen bajwa sound like very good picks.. Ishfaq is also from the azad kasir regiment ( which will be great)...

 

No way Nawaz is never going to agree with Raheel Shareef. He would come up with his own name

 

i already like him.....but imho the next chief should be either Gen.Bajwa or Gen. Ishfaq Nadeem..they both have the right background to successfully continue the WoT campaign.
P.S thanks for providing detailed analysis..

 

Its too early to decide.. we can just assume i am sure NS already have his eye on someone cud be down below from the list or who he think will listen to him after all he has empire to take care of cant ruin it with some patriotic General.
he will name someone just before Raheel Sharif leaves..
unless RS already decided then janga cant do thing.

 

Actually Nawaz Sharif will agree with Raheel Sharif

 

Totally agree with that.

 

but history tells us whenever a prime minister has selected his preferential army chief, his choice has turned against him in a spectacular fashion

 

Might be corrupt puppet like Kiyani I hope we continue the chain of chiefs like raheel Sharif not coward kiyani not doing operation

 

Cool. The source was in the op but the article was not pasted here so I copied most of it and posted since some find it difficult to click and read. :p :p

This way we can have a better discussions with the article pasted here so that posters can look at the choices and argue which might be the best for the job.


At the end it is written by dawn. Never the less thanks...

I am personally more inclined towards ishfaq and bajwa. Ishfaq more bcz it seems he was massively involved in the successful operation zarb e azb and the war on terror is not over for us. Plus having a general from azad kashmir regiment is very attractive.

Gen bajwa is very well aware about the horrors of insurgencies and feels Pakistan's greatest threat is terrorism.

These two are perfect for our anti terror ops..

Its up to raheel and nawaz.

 

He won't he never trusts Army and he chose Raheel Shareef because Kiyani was pushing for who is current Joint Chief of Staff