I for one am pretty happy that the ANA is getting dismantled in front of the onslaught by the Taliban to the extent these guys are surrending en masse. However, we know that the Taliban are a persistent fighting force that keeps going even in the face of horrendous casualties. The Taliban has become a battle hardened, unrelenting force.
However, looking at how quickly and efficiently they are taking back Afghanistan, one has to wonder as to who the genious is behind such meticulous planning and execution where the Taliban try to win battles with a well calibrated mix of diplomacy and the use of force. To me, such balance is hard with such speed and across such a large landscape.
This is why I wanted to open this thread to explore how the Taliban has become what we see today and assess the future implications of such a new force in power. I put forward, simplistically, the following reason behind such a success, in my opinion that is:
1) The Taliban are just foot soldiers with a decentralised command and control but being guided by a strategic force be it the more senior Taliban commanders in Pakistan or the Pakistani estate itself. The Taliban may have engaged the US and ANA in a war of attrition but behind the scenes Pakistan looked for a diplomatic solution to get the US to disengage...a more of a waiting game. However, behind the scenes, Pakistani Generals and Taliban senior commanders build a comprehensive plan with accurate leavers to start their offensive the moment the US disengaged via diplomatic solution. This explains the strategy of how Pakistan, in front of the world, showed that it was not able to exert much leverage with the exception of bringing them to the table to talk to the US and ensuring the Taliban agreed to political settlement to give the US an exit strategy. But, behind the scenes, Pakistan must have promised the Taliban to be unleashed on the corrupt Afghan government which is what we see playing out and most possibly being guided by ISI and other military services to support the Taliban. I am leaning towards this possibility.
2) Taliban no longer want to deal with Pakistan or at least accept them as allies but want to fight their own battles. Twenty years of unrelenting fighting must have taught the Taliban the art of war and diplomacy, understanding full well the limits of their capabilities. On the flip side, the Afghan government maintained a situation on the ground and in the political space where it would be humiliating for the US to disengage. The Afghan government may have deliberately created such an atmosphere with no intent of ever reaching a political solution while have the legitimacy to voice its severe vulnerability at the international stage which in turn puts pressure on the US to deliver on the war it initiated. In twenty years, all the warlords of 1990s got old and no longer relied on for the security of the puppet regime. These were exceptionally good times for the Afghan government that now only produced weak and unmotivated while looting the US by giving the money to corrupt individuals. I guess, they never saw this day coming, and now that it is here....they are facing a battle hardened Taliban who is no longer battling the former Northern Alliance but a bunch of corrupt and demoralised enemy which is just making it easier to win on the ground. Its the natural order of things where the strong defeat the weak. No external party can be responsible for such an outcome, the lack of fighting spirit on the ANA part is even making it difficult for the US and others to blame Pakistan.
So, which one do you think is the approach here, who is the mastermind behind the Taliban blitzkreig? Do you have a different view? Where does Pakistan stand in the eventual Taliban victory from the above two possibilities? How easy will it be for the west to blame Pakistan after such an abysmal performance by the ANA?
I can agree with this.The reality of the situation is that a lot of Taliban sympathizers joined the newly formed government under American auspices back in 2001. They were always waiting for the winds to change, and have invited the Taliban with open hands. Then there are those who are sensing the changing winds and finding it much more convenient to lay down arms rather than wasting lives. This is combined with the Taliban's own magnanimous offer. They are encouraging people to lay down arms so Afghans don't spill Afghan blood. This leaves the hardcore libturds - the people who sold their souls to America, never thinking this day will arrive. For them, accepting Taliban rule is worse than death and they are the only ones fighting. The current situation is merely a reflection of the number of people in Afghanistan who are willing to fight rather than surrender. And it looks like there aren't many.
As far as the planning and execution goes, remember that the Taliban infantryman is a seasoned and battle-hardened fighter who has up-to-date experience of obeying orders and executing them on the battlefield. Secondly, when people question the Taliban's abilities, they are just showing their inherent biases and prejudices. They see bearded, turban wearing villagers who look dirty and unclean, and their biases lead them to believe they are uneducated simpletons. Whereas, circa 2007, the Americans themselves were saying that in Iraq and Afghanistan it is the survival of the fittest - the dumb terrorists die quickly, leaving behind only the smartest and fittest. This was their way of explaining away their own losses. You don't survive 20 years against a superpower by being dumb. Let this sink in.
I have to agree...we think of ourselves that we have some hidden superhuman capabilities. But we have not.Lol....we have nothing to do ...it took a decade for us to clear TTP..even that is not complete...bla launch terrorist attacks here and there ..
And we are taking credit of taliban offensive ...
Wishful thinking has no limits..
It's just that ANA is useless and no motivation to fight ...
They looted the US aid and didn't do much for the common folks and now they expect the common man to fight for them to stay in power. Soldiers have got no interest in the fight as they have got no stakes in the government and they don't see why they have to loose life and limb for these selfish rulers. Taliban's are just collecting weapons from the soldiers and telling them. their jobs are still safe. Would you not do the same as you are just an employee and tomorrow you still have the same employment without getting involve in some one else war.The incompetence of the Kabul swine puppets and the popular civilian support were the mastermind behind the Taliban blitzkrieg....
The regional countries are very happy. Now they ought to take ownership and never ever let US/NATO in.Russia took its revenge from USA for Soviet humiliation
China did its part
Iran took the revenge of sulmani
Pakistan did kick out india. And took the revenge of 80 thousands lives
Yes ...and they are having town after town without fight .I have to agree...we think of ourselves that we have some hidden superhuman capabilities. But we have not.
Last time it was Pakistan Army that fought dressed like Talibans, does not look the case this time.
Taliban's themselves.Who is Guiding Taliban's Military Planning and Execution - Discussion
It is quiet unbelievable taliban could take so much casualties and withstand two decades of war against rest of the world ( USA, NATO. India, ANF, Pakistan, ME Gulf) and still survive.The world wants to blame Pakistan again and unfortunately many fanboy Pakistanis fall in this trap.
Tell me something, would the taliban have been happy when we gave US bases and handed over their ambassador?? U think taliban are zombies that follow Pakistan or Pakistan have some magic?? This is western ploy to put all blame on Pakistan.
Reality is that yes there were taliban sympathisers in Pakistan, mainly in religious circles and even in military. They may have looked the other way with few things but that does not mean Pakistan generals control things or that all plans are made in GHQ. This is indian and afghan propaganda and fanboys fall in it. Taliban came into existence after defeat of USSR but contains mostly ex mujahideen, eg mullah umar was ex mujahid of USSR war. So the taliban though a new ideology, still retained decades of experience from that war. They then fought another 20 years against the best military in the world. This means they have gathered immense experience and battle hardened. I would say taliban commanders would have more experience that Pakistani generals who barely seen a war. Never underestimate the street smart and life long training. The young lot of taliban literally grew up and trained in a real war, there can be no better training than this.