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WHAT WOULD IT TAKE FOR PAKISTAN TO PRODUCE HELICOPTERS?

Discussion in 'Pakistan Defence & Industry' started by nadeemkhan110, Aug 21, 2016.

  1. nadeemkhan110

    nadeemkhan110 FULL MEMBER

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    [​IMG]
    A Pakistani Mi-171 helicopter picking up MEDEVAC personnel.

    Bilal Khan -
    THIS WEEK IN REVIEW: WHAT WOULD IT TAKE FOR PAKISTAN TO PRODUCE HELICOPTERS? (DISCUSSION)
    Every weekend, Quwa will close the week’s news with a review and analysis with the aim to tie together several topics into broader themes. It is an opportunity to reflect upon and discuss issues in a way where key trends are identified and individual news topics are connected into a “bigger picture.”

    This Week in Review: What would it take for Pakistan to produce helicopters? (Discussion)

    Foreword: This is not a news story, but a purely analytical piece for the purpose of discussion. There are no officially stated plans in any of Pakistan’s policy circles to engage in domestic helicopter production.

    Recently, the Government of Algeria and Leonardo, an Italian defence giant, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to raise a helicopter production facility in Algeria’s Sétif province.

    The Ain Arnat facility will offer maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) as well as assembly services to support current and future Algerian helicopter purchases from Leonardo. The specific helicopter types to be dealt with at Ain Arnat have not been disclosed, but according to IHS Jane’s and Defence Web, one could reasonably expect to see the facility manage light and medium-lift helicopters.

    In time, Algeria could work towards enhancing Ain Arnat’s capacity, especially genuine manufacturing, which could enable Algeria to become a source of spare parts which Leonardo could use to help sustain its global supply chain.

    In response to this news, and potentially in light of the recent launch ceremony of the Pakistan Navy Fleet Tanker, which was produced at Karachi Shipyard & Engineering Works (KSEW) with support from STM Turkey (and championed as an example of domestic production), a number of Quwa readers have raised the question of whether helicopters could be produced in Pakistan. The answer to this question will depend on how one defines “produce.

    Native manufacturing of complex solutions such as aircraft is neither a simple or low-cost avenue. To indigenously produce the airframe in its entirety requires substantial investment in a number of complex and high-value areas. These areas include advanced metallurgy and composite development, precision tooling, and assembly. This is not an exhaustive list, nor does it account for the arduous process of actually designing and developing an airframe from scratch, but genuine manufacturing is a capital intensive task, even for readymade solutions acquired off-the-shelf.

    Often times, the task of genuine manufacturing is confused with assembling, the latter is a less intensive task in that it simply involves the assembling of pre-manufactured components. It is also less costly and much easier to implement. Algeria’s deal with Leonardo is not one of genuine manufacturing (at least at this time), but assembly (as well as MRO and training). Yes, the Ain Arnat facility could develop and expand into the area of manufacturing eventually, but this would – at best – be a long-term factor. Moreover, it would require substantial investment, especially if pursued with complete airframe manufacturing (much less turboshaft engine and avionics production) in mind. A more likely route would be parts manufacturing – i.e. a scenario where Algeria produces certain components indigenously, and in turn, supplies them to Leonardo (which can then sell them to third party helicopter users).

    In Pakistan’s case, the vast bulk of domestic production is essentially assembly, especially in complex areas such as warship building. Even the Pakistan Navy Fleet Tanker, which had launched for sea trials last week, was produced with manufactured kits supplied from STM Turkey (STM). On the other hand, the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) JF-17 is an attempt at building genuine manufacturing capacities in Pakistan, but 42% of the airframe is still imported from China. Yet, the Thunder required a significant investment, and the military’s willingness to back it in this form stemmed from the reality that an alternative avenue for a flexible backbone multi-role fighter was simply not available.

    Herein lie several important points. First, the process of building a genuine manufacturing base for just an airframe – much less the engine – is a very expensive proposition, even for wealthy countries. Second, Pakistan’s own ability to manufacture complex solutions is still in its infancy. Third, the motivation to enter manufacturing works has to stem from absolute necessity. In terms of the third factor, if an affordable and sufficiently capable alternative exists, even as a straightforward import, Pakistan will almost certainly take up that available platform (and abandon the idea of domestic development or manufacturing). Ultimately, the Pakistani military is a cost-sensitive entity.

    One might propose the idea of standardizing the operational needs of armed forces and civilian users within the country as a means to create scale, which in turn could justify the costs of bringing in-house helicopter manufacturing. In theory, it is an excellent idea, but the practical implementation may not fit neatly. Each of Pakistan’s service arms has unique operational needs.

    For example, the Pakistan Navy requires helicopters that are suited to the maritime warfare environment, i.e. it needs a platform that is resistant to salt-erosion but is also capable of launching an anti-submarine warfare (ASW) torpedo or anti-ship missile (AShM). This platform would also need a capable electronics warfare (EW) and electronics countermeasures (ECM) suite so that it has a chance at surviving in a combat environment. These are very specific requirements, and having to incorporate them into a helicopter design may result in other service arms, such as the Pakistan Army, incurring a ‘cost punishment.’

    The Pakistan Army will probably not desire such a complex machine; it simply needs a utility helicopter that it can use to ferry troops and supplies behind enemy lines. Yet, if the helicopter is designed to do much more, then the costs associated with those features will have to be distributed among users who have no need for those features. In other words, the Army, Air Force, law enforcement agencies, and civil services will be stuck paying for a design that is capable of effective ASW. And this is simply the cost of development, never mind the costs associated with actually producing each helicopter (which will include additional costs, such as the cost of building the manufacturing line for that helicopter). While Pakistan’s financial problems are not new, the costs being discussed would impact much wealthier countries.

    The case made in this article is in regards to manufacturing and complete standardization, especially under Pakistan’s current political and climate. However, this is not to say that certain steps cannot be taken towards generating a helicopter industry in Pakistan. Platform rationalization (within the Army), domestic MRO, spare parts manufacturing via commercial offsets, and over the long-term, joint-ventures in areas that correspond with actual wide-scale requirements, could be pursued. These will be discussed later in a separate article.
    Source: http://quwa.org/2016/08/20/week-review-take-pakistan-produce-helicopters-discussion/
     
  2. AZADPAKISTAN2009

    AZADPAKISTAN2009 ELITE MEMBER

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    From R&D perspective having Engineering (Applied Science) Department of Pakistan is needed similar to perhaps the Nuclear Research facility which performs research and Deliveries in Nuclear Engineering Sector

    There is no point to just teach "THEORY" in school people need large conglomerate that hire 100,000-200,000 Engineers to deliver stuff - Supported 100% by Government for 30 years to produce "USABLE commodities" for civilian and military applications

    People hired in this company have to be Top Notch people not copy paste students

    a) Engine Research Prototype & and Real Engine Model Delivery, application in Auto Sector
    b) Helicopter Engine , application Civilian and Military Helicopters
    c) Railways Engine , application Locomotives for Train
    d) Fighter Jet Engine , applications , Aviation sector

    These Sector cannot be just bought from outside - because overtime you fall behind in term of understanding of technology and its application (Practical usage)

    The excuse against starting projects for Helicopters since 80's was well we don't need them we just need few here and there , and we can always buy it.

    Heavy influx of money departs Pakistan , putting burden on economic deficit, for purchase of auto engine, helicopter engine , or locomotives

    Fast forward 20-30 years and we are still where we were 30 years ago in both Engines for auto, helicopter , and also Locomotive

    Fast forward 2016,
    • We buy low grade cheap excuse for engines + cars from Suzuki, literally garbage
    • We buy limited locomotive engine there are always SHORTAGES for engines
    • Those Helicopters you ask , well we still feel we can always buy them but we don't have any in our fleet- we are still waiting delivery for some 2-3 helicopters here and there

    Compare to us South Korea or other nations have developed their industrial application
    their students look forward to

    a) Designing own cars
    b) Designing new engines
    c) Helping build new Locomotive applications
    d) Seeking jobs in Aviation industry in engineering (Plane manufacturing)

    • We need a mentality - Assign Task for Engineering Department to make us stuff

    The experience gained in KAMRA Aeronautical complex is undeniably valuable - however a dedicated "Engineering" Company or Corporation has to be formed to tackle the issue of
    Applied Science in Pakistan

    With Requirement for Hire 100,000-200,000 Engineers - 40% PHD , 60% Bachelor grade
    • Funds are fixed for the Group , annually
    • So the people come to office and they focus on "Engineering" and not about paycheck
    • Government facilitate the machinery / design units / tools at GOV-GOV level

    Civilian
    :

    Give Tax breaks to Pakistani who buy
    a) Cars using Pakistani Engine (Designed and made locally)
    b) Trucks using Pakistani Engine (Designed and made locally)
    c) Trains using Pakistani Engine (Designed and made locally)
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Military


    d) Military should induct Engine for Military Trucks , Cars, Jeeps so money funds the existence
    of Pakistani Applied Science Department
    e) Civilian Helicopters should be sold to Police force to get money from Government
    f) Military should buy from Local Engineering group first before trying to buy from outside
    g) Railways should be asked to use Local engine for 20% of its fleet untill it can eventually use
    100%

    Presently all the Billions are going to Suzuki Mehran like pathetic companies which has not fully designed a car 100% in Pakistan over 30-years of operation

    In Order to force people to buy cars (new engines) put a ban on cars older then 8-10 years on road , like in Japan , so people are forced to upgrade cars
    (Put ban on import of old cars)

    (Put ban on imported Motor cycle engine)

    Benefits:

    • Low pollution on road
    • New Cars on road
    • New sales finance the Applied Engineering Department directly

    With Population of 180 Million-220 Million People, enough sales for engine/cars would generate enough $$$$ that can fully fund the whole Applied Engineering Department of Pakistan

    BIG point : ( Mostly missed by Military heads, I don't use civilian politicians as example I find them clueless, on even simplest of concepts - they can't even put a cover on Karachi sewers )


    YOU DON'T FUND YOUR AVIATION DEPARTMENT & Defence project FROM SALE OF JF17 THUNDER SALES YOU FUND IT WHEN YOUR COUNTRYMEN BUY YOUR CARS AND MOTOR CYCLES , using 220 million people 's buying power to your advantage

    Example:
    Assume 40 million cars are sold with our goods over 4 years, Toyota as a example makes 10 Million cars per year

    40 Million cars lets assume made in Pakistan with Pakistani Engine , bought at $4000 USD rate

    Generates : 160 Billion USD for National Defence Sector & Applied Engineering Department
    160,000,000,000 USD not Pakistani rupees I am talking with 9 Zeros for Billion.


    Now I ask what is our Pakistan National Budget each year ? Just 4-5 Billion / Year
    So that itself is a 1000% reason why we must go in this direction

    What is the money we get from USA ? 300 million , or may be 1-2 Billion ?

    Whats greater 160 Billion from Car sale vs 1 Billion US Aid?
    Whats greater 160 Billion from Car sale vs 500 Million from JF17 Thunder sale (20 planes)

    Note: Not counting $$$ from car parts sale

    Cost of transporting food & animal , is only reduced when Trains transport stuff , with your own locally made engine!!! If you buy that Engine you wasted all they $$$ money from your economy
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2016
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  3. Imran Khan

    Imran Khan PDF VETERAN

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    Not big numbers required so turn blind eye from chopers making
     
  4. Signalian

    Signalian PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    lets make a car engine first for commercial use.
     
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  5. AZADPAKISTAN2009

    AZADPAKISTAN2009 ELITE MEMBER

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    I say

    Phase 1
    1) Make Department of Applied Science
    2) Hire 100,000 - 200,000 Engineers
    3) Goal : Build local Engine * Fully made cars in Pakistan 100% local

    NATIONALIZE THE AUTO SECTOR, Put it Under Command of Military Leadership same team that brought the JF17 thunder program to fruition

    Phase 2 : (After 4 years into Project)
    0) Ban all Cars Imported into Pakistan
    1) Sell 40 million cars , to 180 Million customers (registered Pakistani population)
    2) Make 160 Billion Dollars from sale of 40 Million cars Nationally inside Pakistan
    3) Scrap the old models (Sell the metal make $$$), you know melt the cars recover steel/metal
    4) Increase national defense budget , give Army 25% (40 Billion to Pakistan Army) of 160 Billion Dollars , 50% to Engineering Department (80 Billion to Engineering Department) , 25% for National Debt Reduction (40 Billion to pay off debt)

    Due to debt reduction Pakistani Currency will "RISE" Pakistani People will become RICHER!!! Automatically due to debt reduction

    Phase 3: (About 7-8 Years)
    (Note buses and truks normally alot more expensive then my estimates) so the total numbers may be less but the cost would higher for sales


    1) Build Truck Engines & Build Truck (100 % Locally made) , can also run a bus
    2) Sell 5 Million Trucks\buses in country\International market , at 10,000 USD , makes you 50 Billion Dollars
    3) Give 50% to Army (i.e 25 Billion Dollars) 50% to Engineering Department (Salary & Research) (i.e again 25 Billion Dollars)

    Phase 4: (About 10 years)
    1) Build Helicopter Engine
    2) Sell 10 Million more cars @ 4,000 USD and 5 Million more trucks @10,000 (40 Billion from cars, 50 Billion from Trucks)
    3) You have (90 Billion Surplus first time in our history) at disposal (Put it towards Hospital / Economy / Human Resource / Schooling)


    According to this plan Above following the 4 phase approach
    • 60 Billion went to National Defence (Army Usage)
    • 100 Billion went to Department of Applied Science for R&D who will likely not use even 55% of it
    • 40 Billion went to reduce our National Debt
    • 90 Billion of Surplus in "Phase 4" (Economy Improvement)

    I created 100,000-200,000 Jobs in Engineering Sector
    Created a plan to reduce our National Debt Budget by whopping 40 billion dollars

    60 Billion for Military !!!! Not to shabby , considering there is also money from our normal budget that is assigned from Pakistan's national budget

    90 Billion dollars for Economic projects 100% due to Pakistani's own money no debt - no aid

    All 100% from local manufacturing 100% complete work done in Pakistan not a scrap out of Pakistan
    • Car sales 100% nationally
    • Truck sales\Buses (Nationally / may be internationally as these are lesser then cars by great margin)
    All sales mostly to Pakistani Customers holding Pakistani rupee

    Right now all this $$ is going out of Pakistan due to imported Engine , Imported Cars , Imported Jeeps , Imported Trucks etc

    Every time you buy this suzuki car , that nissan car or that BMW , or that Toyota , money is going out of Pakistan


    Facts :

    • JF17 Thunder program sales made us mere 500 Million recovered its cost great but not close to 160 Billion potential from Car sales
    • US Aid we get is roughly 300 Million to 1.5 Billion Dollars , again 160 Billion from Car sales is higher
    • Military should own this sector 100% , becasue it will fuel Defense Budget, it will fuel debt reduction , it will fuel R & D and create 100,000-200,000 good civilian Engineering jobs. This type of project needs 0% corruption factor and needs PHD and talented Bachelors holders
    What can our Military do with extra 60 Billion to spend ? That is the big question that should interest the military - instead of focusing on US aid

    Reducing national Debt figures would improve our currency make average Pakistani more riches with existing amount of Rupees in their banks or savings

    The auto Manufacturing and Design sector is the single Most important area we have not focused on , and this sector is treated like an Orphan - Car , well we can always import these or assemble these
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2016
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  6. khail007

    khail007 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Seems very optimistic; but, our political leadership (which are masters of corruption) will be able to implement it?
    Why the civilian leadership will slam the doors closed to end their kickbacks and commissions.
    Any good reason?
     
  7. AZADPAKISTAN2009

    AZADPAKISTAN2009 ELITE MEMBER

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    That is why I said this type of Project is for Military it should be headed by the Program Manager for JF17 program , as it is a similar Manufacturing Project . This has to be treated at same level of priority as JF17 program as it generates 160 billion in revenues just by tapping into Pakistani market 100% , that is all that is needed Tap into Pakistani market like Telecommunication folks do with sale of mobile phone sale

    Military gets tremendous Boost by success of this project

    The scope of hiring has to be on a colossal scale vs the JF17 program but the engineering steps are all the same

    "Complete ban of Imported cars / trucks and buses into Pakistan"- Policy change has to get passed in Senate" once the Pakistani Made product is ready


    The finances would need a tremendous Overview to ensure $ are not illegally moved from corporation to outside

    Hiring of Engineers is crucial step as well , as the hiring has to be at a High level of professionalism to take the best 100,000-200,000 Engineers with PHD or Bachelors , not the folks who are doing the copy shoppy.

    Workers should have military Engineers status- same code of conduct should be used as it was done in KAMRA. However no weapons training would be necessary for this group

    This can only be done correctly with "Strict hiring process" that examines the knowledge of the Engineer , potential suitable people who can be trained would also be retained


    It will fail 100% in hands of Civilian Gov due to Tax evasion & Corruption, they are only concerned with property overseas. I do know some Civilian Pakistani Business entities are quite professional in delivery but this project perhaps is best to stay in Military's hand

    The business for smaller parts manufacturing perhaps can be given to Civilian Contractors who would be effected by the ban on car sales those who just assemble some cars or did used to make some parts
    • Generic stuff like brakes
    • door nobs
    • locks
    • keys
    • windows
    • hood
    • Nuts and bolts
    • Hose etc or radiator etc
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2016
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  8. Preacher

    Preacher FULL MEMBER

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    1) Do we really need a bigger number ?
    2) Where will we get the engine from ?
    3) How much estimated amount for R&D if we are really talking about self-built technology
     
  9. porris

    porris FULL MEMBER

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    Only will power to produce . As in Military language No (word) is punishable tale it like that Dont say it is not feasible. Govts invests on non beneficial projects at least govt take this project just like that.
     
  10. Furqan Sarwar

    Furqan Sarwar FULL MEMBER

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    @AZADPAKISTAN2009 Great posts. But who will do this?. Our politicians won't going to do that as it will stop money going into their swiss accounts or in their steel mills.
     
  11. AZADPAKISTAN2009

    AZADPAKISTAN2009 ELITE MEMBER

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    Well I think I mentioned , this should be a Priority Project ,should be headed by Managers who managed the JF17 project , or provide "Oversight"

    This project should not be done under any Province / or close to influence of any political party in Pakistan , we we all know when these parties get involved every thing goes to toilet (Copy paste folks , chacha mamoon hiring , political hiring etc , favours)

    • Steeles mills
    • PIA
    Are prime example

    Potential 160 Billion is enough to help gain attention of Military Heads

    It should be 100% Project Run Under Military (Advisory Board), who may setup a management board even from international Management consultants to Lead this initiative

    Bigger Design & Research -> Done by Pakistan , Applied Science Department
    all Engineers should have military Engineer status, highly technical Engineering & Research

    None Technical spare parts -> Handled by Civilian Contract suppliers (private companies) , the private companies can maintain their own hiring practice for their operations. The existing auto companies in Pakistan do manufacture spare parts already they would just have to adjust to the new "Requirements" for the new parts

    More Jobs would be created in recycling sector , becasue under the project Old Cars would be "SCRAPPED" , the scrap / recycling sector - Private companies would help recycle / melt the scrap and make new steel or metal which can be used or sole for $$$

    Major Goals for Project
    a) 10 Year Establishment of Functional Manufacturing Sector , ban on imported cars
    b) Work force of 100,000-200,000 Engineers (Design , Electronics , Assembly of high quality)
    c) Sales targets of 40 Million car "replacement" inside Pakistan
    d) Sale targets of 10 Million Trucks\Bus inside Pakistan & International Market
    e) Debt Reduction for Pakistan (40 Billion Debt reduced , Pakistani currency goes up)
    f) Defence Budget Increase (60 Billion extra funds not a penny from US Aid)
    g) Public Sector Budget Increase (100 Billion for Applied Science Center, 90 Billion for Public projects)
    h) Job Creation in Private Sector (Spare parts industry)

    All from just being 100% control of Auto / Engine sector in Pakistan

    By 10th Year - We would have enough funding being generated inside Pakistan to tackle greater next generation Projects
    • Helicopter
    • Locomotive
    • Next Generation (Aviation Projects)


    Why this project would succeed?
    • Pakistani People Buy cars
    • Pakistani people buy Motor cycles
    • We always have shortage of Buses
    • We always need Trucks , with CPEC around corner we will need plenty of Trucks
    • People of world buy Trucks /Car more then JF17 Thunder as it is a military project

    JF17 thunder will earn us max 500 Million to 2-3 Billion

    • Selling cars & trucks will make us 160 Billion , because we can ban other cars and introduce cars made in Pakistan for 10 years
    • We can Introduce "Pakistan Manufacturing Sector Protection Law", which will ensure no foreign cars are imported into Pakistan for period of 10 years.

    • Why should 90-95% of Profit of car sale should go out of Pakistan?The money would be on TOP of the Agricultural Money we make
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2016
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  12. livingdead

    livingdead ELITE MEMBER

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    partner with china.... and provide funds... just like jf-17
     
  13. Ipcha Mistabra

    Ipcha Mistabra ADVISORS

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    How about a requirement.

    once again to repeat the same thing

    Pakistan will only invest in R&D if it does not have a reliable supply for the item and if that item is critical.
    Since neither applies to helicopters; there will be no production of helicopters.
     
  14. Mo12

    Mo12 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Doesnt make economic sense to produce helicopters from scratch, when Pakistan can get it at stupidly low prices from China, on finance as well.

    Remember that China said it will give Pakistan more jets and helis in event of a war as well.
     
  15. Hassan Guy

    Hassan Guy SENIOR MEMBER

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    Signing a joint development contract with China or maybe SA or Italy.