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What is leading Indian army's rethink of its typically inelastic position on Siachin?

Titanium100

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you are right - the goal is not to fight just to pretend

All it takes deployment of American air and naval power to get China's and Pakistan's attention

two front wars against India are a pipe dream

I repeat the US will never intervene here and never have I been more confident about a certain thing... You can bet your house on this
 

CrazyZ

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If Pakistan and China are attacking India going nuclear is not an option. it ensures America intervention in the war on the side of India. For Pakistan what is the point of such a war ?

Pakistan is not a pushover. Pakistan is not in a position to fight an extended war or all out conventional war with India.
USA will not intervene. India is not relevant to USA Pacific security (that's why was it left out of AUKAS) and has no treaty obligations to do so.

All sides know that a major war will nuclear after a week or so....so fights will be limited to short intense limited exchanges. This favors Pakistan.
 

Battlion25

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you are right - the goal is not to fight just to pretend

All it takes deployment of American air and naval power to get China's and Pakistan's attention

two front wars against India are a pipe dream

US intervention here? This is hilarious do you really think the US love India enough to sacrifice all their major cities to Chinese hypersonic glides and besides Aircraft carriers are a bygone era now and would be sunk at will. It can be achieved with mines and under water drones etc etc.. Just because no ships haven't been sunk at will doesn't mean the threat is not real.. As that poster put it they will fight from Eastern Europe which is their most eastern point or lead their charge from there but they will not fight on this parts of the world just not conventionally realistic for them
 

Saudang

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I repeat the US will never intervene here and never have I been more confident about a certain thing... You can bet your house on this
I can bet my estate in south London on US intervention. US will never have a better opportunity to fight China without putting boots on the ground in case India China war.

India is behind China in technology, not depth or manpower, resources. So in case of a war, what all we need is good sophisticated system to respond back to the Chinese. US can test all weapons systems in the conflict
 

Silverblaze

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So, an attempt to reduce convergences between Pakistan and China to minimize the possibility of joint operations at some time in the future by both to secure their respective interests in the Northern regions of present-day India?

Could be.

But heres the thing, the hindus are caught in a quandary. They presented themselves as a leader of asia against China. If they back down against China, US and rest of the qawal party will lose interest and might not back india fully. If the hindus dont back down, China is going to stomp them.

This leaves them with Pakistan, but since they cannot be seen to be talking to Pakistan for their own domestic audience, they cant even talk to Pakistan. Talking with Pakistan puts india and Pakistan on equal footing which the hindus loathe.

My humble assessment is that hindus will put up a brave face against China and give some positive signals to Pakistan while sponsoring terror acts as well. This will eventually back fire because China now believes india is an attack dog and needs to be leashed. We might see far more Chinese military collaboration with Pakistan than ever before as a Chinese reaction.

india will see more upheaval internally and externally but will it completely break down remains to be seen.

What should be Pakistan's policy? It should arm itself to the teeth. Sadly, I dont see Pakistan leadership doing enough economic reforms to upset the balance of power vis a vis india which is now a possibility considering india's clear 2 front quagmire. But Pakistans policies is another discussion totally.
I repeat the US will never intervene here and never have I been more confident about a certain thing... You can bet your house on this

US intervention will put Russia in a difficult position. China might ask Russia to choose a side either with China or India. Russians are not stupid, they will side with Chinese and possibly try to mediate between india and China. China's support in Kazakhstan and Ukraine is critical for Russia.
 

Titanium100

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I can bet my estate in south London on US intervention. US will never have a better opportunity to fight China without putting boots on the ground in case India China war.

India is behind China in technology, not depth or manpower, resources. So in case of a war, what all we need is good sophisticated system to respond back to the Chinese. US can test all weapons systems in the conflict

Lmao.. They don't want to fight for Ukraine who are in their backyard and one of their sons if they don't for them what makes you think they would for India across the other side of the world
 

Pak Nationalist

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As usual, the overzealous ones have found it relevant to share their beliefs sans knowledge to establish the supremacy of their country over South Asia and sing tales of rivers of blood. This thread asked some simple questions. It placed the information out there for analysis vis a vis why Indian military thinking on Siachin is departing from its staunchest positions. Nobody asked what would happen if there was a TFW that India faces. Why the expressions of machismo for no rhyme or reason? Look at the subject matters of the post, try to think critically before commenting lest your time is wasted (and that of others) by going on tangents and indulging in irrelevancies.
 
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Titanium100

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What should be Pakistan's policy? It should arm itself to the teeth..


US intervention will put Russia in a difficult position. China might ask Russia to choose a side either with China or India. Russians are not stupid, they will side with Chinese and possibly try to mediate between india and China. China's support in Kazakhstan and Ukraine is critical for Russia.

US intervention is completely off due to tactical reasons they will not jump into the eastern theater at all as this will jeopardize them in the operational and tactical level this would be logistically nightmare hence this is off the table for them period.. I understand this thing from the conventional level..

Besides military strength has no bearing on the economy look at Russia it is bearly surviving and has worse economy then Italy but 10 times stronger then Italy militarily but it is about desire and wanting strength and focussing on it like Pakistan is doing.. Pakistan is not placed on the 9th position in the global military ranking for random reasons because it wants it and it wants badly which is a great tradition that should continue..
 
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khansaheeb

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what is worthy about Pakistan military capacity ? All out conventional air strikes against Pakistan in two front war will cripple Pakistan economically for decades. Most of Pakistan's economic infrastructure is within 200 miles of international border.
Yeh but who would dare do it? Stop fantasizing Indian Bollywood movies and face the reality.
 

GumNaam

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india is making a fatal mistake thinking that it will be a 2 front war, it won't. it will be a single, unified front, kinda like getting orally AND analy raped at the same time!
 

Akatosh

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This vital statement somehow evaded the radars of many all over the Pakistani internet; mainstream media in Pakistan is a lost cause anyway. The same Indian army which had scuttled efforts of Pakistani and Indian political leaderships to reach a settlement on the Siachin dispute (demilitarization) in the past is now expressing a desire to demilitarize the Siachin glacier. Indian military at no cost wanted to vacate from the Siachin glacier (and adjacent territories) given their strategic significance. What has led to this change of heart, reevaluation of the strategic calculus?

- Realization after wargaming scenarios where joint Pak-Sino operations cut off the Indian troops in Siachin?

- Desire to limit the probability of collaboration between the Pakistani and Chinese militaries in a future conflict in the North by eliminating at least one point of friction in the North?

- Reorienting manpower locked up in high altitudes of Siachin to more vulnerable LAC, MacMohan Line borders?

- Economic pressures of sustaining military pressures all along the Northern frontier and Siachin simultaneously?

- A combination of all the above factors?


An interesting thing to note is that many people have forgotten about a statement given by FM SMQ and reported by radio Pakistan back in 2020 when Pakistan was still fuming Indian unilateral actions in IoJK. The PLA had already completed its incursions into territory Indian either held or previously had access to in Laddakh. It is very interesting to note that the said link is nowhere to be found on RP's website anymore. This also coincides with the same time NSA, FM, DGMO, ISI chief were holding some meetings.

Indian army chief might know something we don't.


Indian Army chief only repeated what has been India's official stance since atleast 2007-08:

Even though both neighbors are in agreement on the importance of demilitarization of the glacier, they remain at loggerheads on the formula for demilitarization. New Delhi wants Pakistan to authenticate currently held positions on the Saltoro Ridge as a recognized acknowledgment of territory controlled and a guarantee against any future invasion, something the latter refuses to acquiesce to.

 

arjunk

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I can bet my estate in south London on US intervention. US will never have a better opportunity to fight China without putting boots on the ground in case India China war.

India is behind China in technology, not depth or manpower, resources. So in case of a war, what all we need is good sophisticated system to respond back to the Chinese. US can test all weapons systems in the conflict

US will not risk allowing Chinese sensors to sniff its systems. The only thing the US can send that will help India against China is its latest and greatest tech, and if this falls to China then they are just shooting themselves in a foot.

The US is NOT going to be involved in a nuclear conflict anytime soon, ESPECIALLY FOR INDIA.
 

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