What's new

What is Karachi's population?

saiyan0321

PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST
Jan 9, 2012
6,450
114
9,409
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
@Indus Pakistan has there been ever a census that wasn't considered as controversial or a conspiracy against a group? The 1981 census was considered extremely flawed by many and the 1998 census even more so. Let me expand a bit.

By 1991 the census was due however no political party wanted to undertake the effort for census due to two major reasons.

The enormity of the task and the administrative nightmare that is a census

And

The ethnic and political strifes in pakistan that saw the census with suspicion.

In 1991 rather than undertake a census the government decided to utilize a head to head count however it did not release the results. The national assembly was composed on the basis of the 1981 census. Now this head to head result was kept hidden and was severely criticized and benazir made alot of noise. It was nawaza who was in power back then. Now in 1995, benazir decided to undertake the census and during that time, and in her election promises, she had supported a full census but the 1995 census had to be cut short. It literally abandoned halfway. Why? Apart from the many political issues, the political parties threatened to leave the coalition government of benazir, the ethnic strife and most notable being was the absolutely ridiculous results that were coming in.
For example the method of the census was that initially there would be a head count but the results of the head count were mind boggling. The initial result showed that the population of Sindh had went from 19.05M to 50 million bringing an increase of 171 percent and it became apparent that the sindhis and muhajirs were inflating their numbers to secure political positions since census basically divided how seats were gone distributed or funds allocated. Such was the result that benazir stopped the census and while she would hound the government of nawaza later on to reveal the 1991 head count, she herself never revealed it.

When 1998 census was happening, despite having a huge majority government, PMLN struggled as political parties and internal party elements all voiced dissatisfaction. Ethnic parties voiced ferociously against the census and despite him trying to ally concerns, he failed to make a dent. PMLN then adopted a most strange policy to have the census be done in a proper way and that was that they announced that the census would not bring any changes to the assembly nor to the funds which was in contradiction to the constitution and the very census system but this did helps address concerns most notable were the punjab elements that were afraid that punjab would witness reduction in seats if census happened. Benazir voiced repeatedly that the census being held was flawed, imperfect, had loopholes and opposed it greatly. You see the punjab party feared a census under benazir since she would inflate the numbers of Sindh and benazir opposed a census under PMLN since she feared that nawaza would hide any decrease or inflate the population of punjab.

In the 1998 census military was also used. This is a little known fact but in many centers army personal went with the census officers especially in Sindh and Karachi and infact the Sindh jiyye taraqqi tehreek raised issue that the villages would be scared of the military personal and won't come out thus the sindhi numbers would be lessened. The government answered that the soldiers were there just for the census and the ISPR assured all parties that the soldiers would act in the most professional of manner. Infact in Karachi many naval units were deployed with census officers as well.

Even before the census began, already people were shouting foul and screaming absolute injustice. In some tribes of FATA and baluchistan the villagers tore the census forms and threw it in the face of the officers, egged on by ethnic parties.
Many even feared that aliens would be counted as pakistanis especially in Karachi making the muhajir population less. The afghan refugee problem was particularly highlighted by muhajirs and baluchis
So here we have this census and then we have the 2017 which was largely conducted peacefully and was widely accepted. The point is that in pakistan, there will always be somebody somewhere who will cry foul. The 2017 census is now the official statistic till 2027 and we have already started to see various distributions being accorded to the census. I am afraid that the conspiracy theories and this play by ethnic parties will never end and every single census will be preceded and followed by cries of foul and conspiracy.

Confirmation bias will also play a major role.
 

VCheng

ELITE MEMBER
Sep 29, 2010
39,560
55
33,993
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
since census basically divided how seats were gone distributed or funds allocated.
And that is the basic problem, which appears to be unsolvable for the foreseeable future. There are indirect measurements that can be made to corroborate data, but they are not as reliable if used to replace direct counting methods.
 

newb3e

ELITE MEMBER
Jun 25, 2007
10,244
-21
9,855
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Hi,

I don't think this recent census is widely accepted. Recent news below

https://tribune.com.pk/story/2285326/kamal-stresses-five-per-cent-audit-of-census

Census results challenged in Supreme Court

Secondly, how can this census be genuine when half of Karachi's population is wiped out in it?

Like for example - as I mentioned earlier.

Look at below report of 2014 - regarding Karachi.

City’s traffic policemen too few to regulate over 3.5m vehicles daily

“Currently there are 3.6 million registered vehicles running on Karachi roads,” said Muhammad Shoaib Ahmed Siddiqui, director general of the Sindh excise and taxation.

Pakistan literally wiped out half of Karachi's population in recent last census.

As per Pakistan - There are more vehicles in city than people

How can this be justified?
as long as Fauji blue eyed prince Mr Zardari rules Sindh everything is justified!

zameenai kal say khi ki dha keh naam kardo ya zardari ko nikal dain gey! zameen do bas! bajri looha khud laga lain gey bhaduari dikha keh! bawakoof bana rahay hain sab aik dosray ko!

if educated Karachietes get fair share they will get more jobs in federal govt posts that would mean khoota khor ruling our country will have to answer for all the fk ups they have done for 75 years aur jab sawal uthain gey toh buhut say parday hatain gey! ya nai honay dayna! toh status qou chalao mulk looto!
 

Indus Pakistan

ELITE MEMBER
May 7, 2012
18,841
186
54,641
Country
Pakistan
Location
United Kingdom
there been ever a census that wasn't considered as controversial or a conspiracy against a group?
Thank you, that was a great post. This goes to add value to the thread. My own feeling already was that this claim of undercount was driven by agenda. Either MQM or PPP trying to slice or retain a larger pie. But I was open to this supposition being shot or shreded with reliable data or some solid facts or even logical deduction. But this thread got non. Other than wild claims of 30 million or hey maybe even 50 million or unreferance claims of a cop. I saw loads of Sindh registered vehicles up north. Can I use them for referancing population?

What you said makes eminent sense. Just as a sidenote I did some crude measures to make comparisons of Lahore and Karachi by using Google Earth to size the built up area. Of course this very crude because it assumes density of housing will be equal. But still we can use this to draw some ideas and are still better than pulling them out of my ar*se.

This is what Google Earth gave me as built up area -

  • Karachi 175 sq Miles
  • Lahore 135 sq Miles

When I used the calculator the population figures tallied at 15 million for Karachi and just over 11 million for Lahore. This fits in with the census. Thus there is absolutely no way Karachi has a population of 20 million let alone 30 million. I can't bothered to give the maths here but if anybody wants to I will post it. Obviously there will be some error factor like there is always but that will be plus/minus 5% and no way as big as some howl on about.
Look at below report of 2014 - regarding Karachi.
For the second time I am calling you out. Where is the link/source for this??
 

peagle

FULL MEMBER
Dec 29, 2019
1,401
3
3,325
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
Interesting that nobody chose to provide a argumant either way. But of interest and relevant to this thread is this article -


Here are 12 reasons why I think that under-reporting in Karachi’s population can’t be as large as claimed by political parties. Source: https://medium.com/@hasaankhawar/12...was-significantly-under-reported-3d1c5f4a1178

1. Karachi’s urban population stood at 5.2 million in 1981. It then grew at an average growth rate of 3.49% reaching 9.3 million by 1998. Since then however, the growth slowed down to 2.49%, as per recent census results, with population now reaching 14.9 million. Even at present level, it shows tremendous growth over the last two decades.

2. Interestingly, even if Karachi’s population had grown at the same rate, as was witnessed between 1981–1998, it would have still reached close to 18 million, way below what political parties are claiming.

3. In 2013, the total number of registered voters in Karachi division was 7.1 million, which represents 44% of present population. The percentage in Lahore is not very different, with 4.4 million voters representing 40% of city’s population.

4. For Karachi to have 30 million people, it should have grown at an average growth rate of 6.33%, which is absolutely unrealistic. Just to put things in perspective, this number is so absurd that if Karachi actually had 30 million people and continued to grow at this rate, its population would be way more than the rest of Pakistan in the next 50 years.

5. These counter estimates of 22–30 million mean that about 2–3 citizens out of every 6 were not counted. This does not seem to hold ground.

6. Even for Karachi to have a population of 22 million, this growth rate should have been 4.6%, significantly higher than that of Lahore. Those who had observed both cities grow over the last two decades know very well that the pace of change in Lahore’s infrastructure has been much more than that of Karachi.

7. The rural population of Karachi division however stands at merely 1.1 million, spread across parts of Karachi West and Malir districts. Even if we consider all of it urban, it wouldn’t still make a sizeable difference to Karachi’s reported population, and would merely increase it to 16 million. So allegations of deliberately categorizing urban population as ‘rural’ do not seem true.

8. The demarcation of rural and urban areas falls under the purview of provincial government and not Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

9. Another potential reason for under-reporting could be to make a dent in overall population of Sindh to lessen its provincial share in federal resources and National Assembly seats. Interestingly, when compared to the last census, Sindh is the only province that has retained its share of 23% in national population. KP and Baluchistan have gained share, while Punjab is the only one that has lost its share from 56% to 53%. This could result in loss of 8+ seats for Punjab in National Assembly. It is clear that Punjab is at the losing end here, not Sindh.

10. The census could have a methodological error. Such an unintentional error however would lead to erroneous results across the board and not just one city.

11. Yet another issue is of a large base and Karachi’s demographics. Considering the education and income level of Karachi residents, it can be safely assumed that Karachi’s birth rate should be way below the national average. Overestimates about Karachi’s population are based on the notion of urbanization, with people from other cities migrating to Karachi. These migrants however would translate into smaller growth figure, considering that Karachi already had close to 10 million people in 1998.

12. Anecdotal evidence suggests some out-migration from Karachi as well during the last two decades. Besides, we must take into account the huge inflow of people who commute to Karachi everyday to earn their livelihoods. This should also be a significant chunk, which does put a drain to Karachi’s resources but wouldn’t be counted as Karachi residents for census.

Why is it hard to believe that Karachi’s population growth has slowed down? Isn’t it intuitive that law and order challenges, poor civic services as compared to other major Pakistani metropolitans and lack of infrastructure investments have made Karachi a less attractive destination?
Realy enjoy reading his, good explanation.

One of my sister in law is from the so-called "Urdu speaking" group. Since the 20 years of their marriage, many of her relatives have moved to Lahore and Islamabad, there are other examples also.
Due to the political situation in Karachi over the past few decades, there has been an outward movement of people to other major cities in Pakistan, especially Lahore and Islamabad.
 

VCheng

ELITE MEMBER
Sep 29, 2010
39,560
55
33,993
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
“Currently there are 3.6 million registered vehicles running on Karachi roads,” said Muhammad Shoaib Ahmed Siddiqui, director general of the Sindh excise and taxation.

Pakistan literally wiped out half of Karachi's population in recent last census.

As per Pakistan - There are more vehicles in city than people

How can this be justified?
3 POINT 6 million is only one-tenth of 36 million.
 

Indus Pakistan

ELITE MEMBER
May 7, 2012
18,841
186
54,641
Country
Pakistan
Location
United Kingdom
Realy enjoy reading his, good explanation.

One of my sister in law is from the so-called "Urdu speaking" group. Since the 20 years of their marriage, many of her relatives have moved to Lahore and Islamabad, there are other examples also.
Due to the political situation in Karachi over the past few decades, there has been an outward movement of people to other major cities in Pakistan, especially Lahore and Islamabad.
Agreed. Following need to be taken into accoiunt -

  • political issues have dissuaded many from moving to the city
  • political issues have pushed out some people as you point out
  • rising economic opportunities have almost cut off fresh migration from India and Bangladesh
  • the urban birth rate has reduced
 

peagle

FULL MEMBER
Dec 29, 2019
1,401
3
3,325
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
Agreed. Following need to be taken into accoiunt -

  • political issues have dissuaded many from moving to the city
  • political issues have pushed out some people as you point out
  • rising economic opportunities have almost cut off fresh migration from India and Bangladesh
  • the urban birth rate has reduced
Very valid points,

But the sad fact is, we in Pakistan have become accustomed to crying foul about everything, whether it makes sense or not.

We are all guilty of this, some more than others, including you, lol, I've observed you doing lazy opposition on other threads.
But you raise important points, and hopefully, by realising our shortcomings, we can slowly start to move out of this bad habit.

Sometimes things go wrong, they do not work as they should, the solution isn't to cry foul all the time, but to rectify and amend so that it does not happen again, and move on. This thread, hopefully, is part of that movement.
 

PaklovesTurkiye

SENIOR MEMBER
Dec 1, 2015
6,594
9
16,334
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
3 POINT 6 million is only one-tenth of 36 million.
Apologies..Got confused. :)

Realy enjoy reading his, good explanation.

One of my sister in law is from the so-called "Urdu speaking" group. Since the 20 years of their marriage, many of her relatives have moved to Lahore and Islamabad, there are other examples also.
Due to the political situation in Karachi over the past few decades, there has been an outward movement of people to other major cities in Pakistan, especially Lahore and Islamabad.
That outward movement from Karachi is weigh LESSER than hordes of people coming to Karachi on daily basis.

as long as Fauji blue eyed prince Mr Zardari rules Sindh everything is justified!

zameenai kal say khi ki dha keh naam kardo ya zardari ko nikal dain gey! zameen do bas! bajri looha khud laga lain gey bhaduari dikha keh! bawakoof bana rahay hain sab aik dosray ko!

if educated Karachietes get fair share they will get more jobs in federal govt posts that would mean khoota khor ruling our country will have to answer for all the fk ups they have done for 75 years aur jab sawal uthain gey toh buhut say parday hatain gey! ya nai honay dayna! toh status qou chalao mulk looto!
Agreed..

But if Karachi is to be destroyed then WHOLE Pakistan should as well.
 

peagle

FULL MEMBER
Dec 29, 2019
1,401
3
3,325
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
Apologies..Got confused. :)



That outward movement from Karachi is weigh LESSER than hordes of people coming to Karachi on daily basis.



Agreed..

But if Karachi is to be destroyed then WHOLE Pakistan should as well.
I honestly do not know, but I've read your other posts, so if you say that is the case, then I'll accept your words.

But, for me, it's high time we stop crying foul about everything. We have to start learning from our mistakes to make amends for next time, not always keep looking back, and stopping everything till things are reversed. We will get nowhere if we stick to this habit.
 

PaklovesTurkiye

SENIOR MEMBER
Dec 1, 2015
6,594
9
16,334
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
I honestly do not know, but I've read your other posts, so if you say that is the case, then I'll accept your words.

But, for me, it's high time we stop crying foul about everything. We have to start learning from our mistakes to make amends for next time, not always keep looking back, and stopping everything till things are reversed. We will get nowhere if we stick to this habit.
Agreed.

But there is a difference in crying and telling people reality.

It is our job to tell what is wrong being done to our city.

Yes, overall, I agree with you
 

AZ1

SENIOR MEMBER
Jul 25, 2017
6,419
-2
6,307
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Simple to understand
2 crore = karachities
3 crore = from all over pakistan who stays here through out year and when census happens budget goes to their own place rather than to karachi based on their NIC.
 

Syed1.

BANNED
Dec 7, 2016
6,023
-1
11,275
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
Simple to understand
2 crore = karachities
3 crore = from all over pakistan who stays here through out year and when census happens budget goes to their own place rather than to karachi based on their NIC.
Quite correct.


Obviously Punjab centric establishment would not want to see Punjab's population numbers (and therefore NFC declining) if the migrant workers in Karachi are counted in Karachi rather than their home province.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Top Bottom