What is India's true goal in Balochistan long-term?
In my opinion, the Indian game plan with Balochistan primarily is to keep an insurgency sustained for as long as possible with the goal of destablising and preventing any prospect of economic development, infrastructural development, FDI and internal investment, bad reputation, and no peace. You can't even safely play cricket without the risk of terrorism being brought up. Pakistan is essentially being strangled by India, and struggling to fight its way out.
Anything more than the above, like seccession, to them I think is simply a bonus but not a primary goal, to genuinely break it would require more severe efforts in other domains. For example they have begun trying to raise it to a diplomatic and social level given the recent documentaries which could point towards this.
We must admit they have been very successful with the above. Because they have actual functioning national instituions with competent, skilled, qualified and loyal individuals. They prioritise meritocracy with a strong system of accountability.
One method to achieve their seccessionist goals is to incite a nation-wide civil war, then India initates a war against the army, whole of Pakistan would cease to exist at the end of it. The only real thing which prevents this from happening is the existence of our nuclear weapons arsenal, I think India will 100% try to denuclearise Pakistan if it seeks to do this and it could be coming soon.
We can expect in the coming near years more co-operation between India and Afghanistan too, using TTP or perhaps a newly branded movement. The future does not look good.
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