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What default means.?

ziaulislam

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If defaults happen
Which is 92% chance(up from 5%)

The first thing to be useless will be rupee.so get everything out of rupees.

The second thing to go will be dollars in banks. Get them out of the banking sector/govt will confiscate them


Third thing to go will be real estate. Real estate values will fall as a lot of foreigners will cash out of it.

Basically just see what happened in Afghanistan..that's your template.

Hoard dollars as much as you can.
No wonder my family were selling dollars at 250 4 months ago in black. I have checked but rumours are they are running at 300+

 

PakSword

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If defaults happen
Which is 92% chance(up from 5%)

The first thing to be useless will be rupee.so get everything out of rupees.

The second thing to go will be dollars in banks. Get them out of the banking sector/govt will confiscate them


Third thing to go will be real estate. Real estate values will fall as a lot of foreigners will cash out of it.

Basically just see what happened in Afghanistan..that's your template.

Hoard dollars as much as you can.
No wonder my family were selling dollars at 250 4 months ago in black. I have checked but rumours are they are running at 300+

Best thing is to get gold or silver against whatever cash you have.

I don't agree with your comment about real estate. In the short term, real estate will serve as an asset like any other asset.

Basically, anything other than PKR is good.
 

VCheng

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Best thing is to get gold or silver against whatever cash you have.

I don't agree with your comment about real estate. In the short term, real estate will serve as an asset like any other asset.

Basically, anything other than PKR is good.

Other countries have defaulted and come through it just fine. It is not the end of the world, just a difficult financial step, that is all.
 

PakFactor

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Other countries have defaulted and come through it just fine. It is not the end of the world, just a difficult financial step, that is all.

In business, we consider it a cleaning phase, as if you are removing the excess fat of a chicken if done correctly before cooking it. My family's business went through it during the 2009-2010 economic phase with tenants leaving, etc., but we came out much cleaner and more robust with a stronger balance sheet. It's not the end, but a new beginning if appropriately managed.
 
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PakSword

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Other countries have defaulted and come through it just fine. It is not the end of the world, just a difficult financial step, that is all.
I didn't say that a default is bad or always bad.

However, unless a government is able to get a bailout package, the defaulted country's population comes on roads. A country like Pakistan can't survive without petroleum, and as there is no money to pay for its import, it effectively jams the entire economy.

I don't know whether Pakistan will be able to get a nice bailout package, and against which gaurantees.
 

VCheng

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In business, we consider it a cleaning phase, as if you are removing the excess fat of a chicken if done correctly before cooking it. My family's business went through it during the 2009-2010 economic phase with tenants leaving, etc., but we came out much leaner and more robust with a stronger balance sheet.

Exactly. Default is a difficult step, but sometimes the better step to take in the long run. It is not the end of the world, as I said.

I didn't say that a default is bad or always bad.

However, unless a government is able to get a bailout package, the defaulted country's population comes on roads. A country like Pakistan can't survive without petroleum, and as there is no money to pay for its import, it effectively jams the entire economy.

I don't know whether Pakistan will be able to get a nice bailout package, and against which gaurantees.

If Pakistan defaults, it will not be easy, for sure, but it will be survivable, I am equally sure.
 

Imran Khan

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The second thing to go will be dollars in banks. Get them out of the banking sector/govt will confiscate them


you are wrong here in fact agricultural land will save people then yes apartments and expensive items will loss some value but it will not be free . and best thing will be agriculture land .if paksitan default i am going to buy so many RE items .

Best thing is to get gold or silver against whatever cash you have.

I don't agree with your comment about real estate. In the short term, real estate will serve as an asset like any other asset.

Basically, anything other than PKR is good.
lets see when RE will crash . its not possible . if you see market people now trading in dollar already for installments .
 

PakSword

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but it will be survivable
What makes you think that it will be survivable?

Mostly, IMF provides a bailout package. Pakistan was struglling to get trenches of an approved loan when the default risk was low.

There are two sources that Pakistan will approach. IMF and the Islamic world. If both hesitate, I don't know for how long people behave nicely without electricity, petrol, LNG and wheat.

We should expect scenes of Sri Lanka in Pakistan where people will be dragging the politicians out of their dens. This time, the situation will be worse as the majority thinks that establishment is behind all the mess.
 

VCheng

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What makes you think that it will be survivable?

Mostly, IMF provides a bailout package. Pakistan was struglling to get trenches of an approved loan when the default risk was low.

There are two sources that Pakistan will approach. IMF and the Islamic world. If both hesitate, I don't know for how long people behave nicely without electricity, petrol, LNG and wheat.

We should expect scenes of Sri Lanka in Pakistan where people will be dragging the politicians out of their dens. This time, the situation will be worse as the majority thinks that establishment is behind all the mess.

So people will not behave "nicely", as you said, and a few politicians will be killed. Not a big deal, in the overall scheme of things, as I said. Survivable.
 

PakSword

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So people will not behave "nicely", as you said, and a few politicians will be killed. Not a big deal, in the overall scheme of things, as I said. Survivable.
Lol..

What do you think from where and how Pakistan will get the required commodities. Please don't think that I want to argue. Maybe I am missing something. Sri Lanka's bailout package was 4 billion USD only. Pakistan will require much more than that.
 

PakFactor

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Exactly. Default is a difficult step, but sometimes the better step to take in the long run. It is not the end of the world, as I said.



If Pakistan defaults, it will not be easy, for sure, but it will be survivable, I am equally sure.

The problem is the stigma. As individuals, we avoid it as it shows the third person you failed. We went through that phase also, but in the end, we said screw it; the system allows us why should care about what others think. Ultimately, we must keep the kitchen warm and the food on the table.

For a country, it's political suicide. However, it could also revitalize that party as well. If IK comes, he can go that route and claim PDM's mismanagement forced his hand and possibly put a nail in PDM's coffin.
 

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