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Ukraine says it downed three Ka-52 helicopters in two days

Stryker1982

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This war simply shows what I have been pounding the table about for ~20 years.

The only thing that breaks stalemates in modern warfare is effective armored advances.

The only way to do effective armored advances is with hard kill active protection systems along with air defense.

As of today, very few of the armor around the world actually has the hard kill active protection systems at the ready to be equipped to a large enough quantity to make such an effective armored advance sustainable.

This played out exactly as anyone who knew anything would know it would play out.

The lack of hard kill active protection systems is what is keeping this conflict, and any near-peer conflict, a stalemate.
I agree in this day an age.

You should take a look at the 33 days war between Hezbollah and Israel. A war that many people forgot existed. A foreshow for what modern warefare would look like, and largely overlooked by the public but not by military people.

How did a militia group with no airforce, or air defence, managed to halt a combined arms armoured advance. What previously took Israel 3 days to do (walk into Beirut) could not be achieved after 33 days. You should take a look at that if you haven't before.

Literally with well trained teams, and the right tools (ATGMs), dealing with 1000s of sorties, you can stop any advance that does not have hard kill active protection. If Hard kill APS, existed then perhaps the results would have been different.
 

jhungary

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People also forget how heavily outnumbered the Russians are in this fight. They only comitted some 175-200 BTGs whilst Ukraine at the start had ~230BTG. Russia has sent so little to what it actually has in service.
Ukraine never have that amount of number to begin with.......

Ukraine starts this war with 15 Brigade (5 in the East, 4 in the West, 3 in the North and 3 in the South) about 10 Battalion per Brigade, which made roughly 150 BTG. They "MAY" have 200 BTG now with the influx of TDF personnel and people volunteer to serve, but then being a defending force, they would need to have more, say for example, they still have 4 Brigade station near Kyiv where nothing ever happened.

On the other hand, Russia is actually the one that run out of soldier. You can see it from a few tale-tell sign. The dependence of Wagner Group, the influx of Foreign Volunteer, all these tell you they have force regeneration problem. And it is quite evident that they cannot spearhead 2 advances at the same time. And most of the time the Russian simply put wasting their troop into grinder.

Take Pisky as an example. It's 10 km from Donetsk City and 2 Km from Donetsk International Airport, both of which went under Separatist control. Pisky itself was under Ukrainian control. Yet til this day, the village of Pisky changed hand like 10 times in 6 months, there are no civilian in the village and the village were already flatten, there are no strategic advantage at all to hold that village, but still Russia loses about 10 BTG trying to take it......

Russian have to take land in order to win this war, but Ukraine only need to bleed Russian until they either cannot bleed troop anymore or got bored and go home. And the way it is going, the war is going to cost more to the Russian than the Ukrainian. Both for Russian economy and for their population.
 

Primus

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Ukraine never have that amount of number to begin with.......

Ukraine starts this war with 15 Brigade (5 in the East, 4 in the West, 3 in the North and 3 in the South) about 10 Battalion per Brigade, which made roughly 150 BTG. They "MAY" have 200 BTG now with the influx of TDF personnel and people volunteer to serve, but then being a defending force, they would need to have more, say for example, they still have 4 Brigade station near Kyiv where nothing ever happened.

On the other hand, Russia is actually the one that run out of soldier. You can see it from a few tale-tell sign. The dependence of Wagner Group, the influx of Foreign Volunteer, all these tell you they have force regeneration problem. And it is quite evident that they cannot spearhead 2 advances at the same time. And most of the time the Russian simply put wasting their troop into grinder.

Take Pisky as an example. It's 10 km from Donetsk City and 2 Km from Donetsk International Airport, both of which went under Separatist control. Pisky itself was under Ukrainian control. Yet til this day, the village of Pisky changed hand like 10 times in 6 months, there are no civilian in the village and the village were already flatten, there are no strategic advantage at all to hold that village, but still Russia loses about 10 BTG trying to take it......

Russian have to take land in order to win this war, but Ukraine only need to bleed Russian until they either cannot bleed troop anymore or got bored and go home. And the way it is going, the war is going to cost more to the Russian than the Ukrainian. Both for Russian economy and for their population.
Thank you for the correction
 

925boy

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Independently confirmed losses so far are 19 Su-25, 7 Su-24, 9 Su-30, 11 Su-34, 1 Su-35, and 3 unidentified Sukhois (30/34/35).
Liar- Show us PROOF or SHUT DA FUK UP- especailly foor the 11 Su-34 and 9 Su-30s!

I thought Russia will flatten Ukraine if they resist for couple of month.
You mean Russia should have used weapons of mass destruction and committed war crimes?
 

Beny Karachun

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I agree in this day an age.

You should take a look at the 33 days war between Hezbollah and Israel. A war that many people forgot existed. A foreshow for what modern warefare would look like, and largely overlooked by the public but not by military people.

How did a militia group with no airforce, or air defence, managed to halt a combined arms armoured advance. What previously took Israel 3 days to do (walk into Beirut) could not be achieved after 33 days. You should take a look at that if you haven't before.

Literally with well trained teams, and the right tools (ATGMs), dealing with 1000s of sorties, you can stop any advance that does not have hard kill active protection. If Hard kill APS, existed then perhaps the results would have been different.
The only thing that stopped Israel is the (stupid) humanity of its leaders. A war against a guerilla terrorist group that use civilian infastracture is always tough, the only way to defeat it is with absolute force against power plants, bridges and have 0 regard for civilians in the vicinity, and equation breaking technologies.

From what I understood, Israel figured that out after the war. Trophy system was developed, and the next war would be Lebanon's collapse as a nation.
 

Stryker1982

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The only thing that stopped Israel is the (stupid) humanity of its leaders. A war against a guerilla terrorist group that use civilian infastracture is always tough, the only way to defeat it is with absolute force against power plants, bridges and have 0 regard for civilians in the vicinity, and equation breaking technologies.
Last time I checked Israel has no issue with attacking entire apartment complexes and destroying them. Very easy to find such evidences.

From what I understood, Israel figured that out after the war. Trophy system was developed,
I agree, Israel is better prepared for next time scenario, other countries are just understanding the importance of APS well after Trophy was developed.
 

Michel Niesten

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Liar- Show us PROOF or SHUT DA FUK UP- especailly foor the 11 Su-34 and 9 Su-30s!


You mean Russia should have used weapons of mass destruction and committed war crimes?
If you look at the blog from Oryxspioenkop they have every loss documented with photos, videos. So am not a liar, you are an idiot. So **** up
 

Beny Karachun

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Last time I checked Israel has no issue with attacking entire apartment complexes and destroying them. Very easy to find such evidences.
Lol, Israel always warns with leaflets/phone calls or attacks specific floors. I wish we didn't, that's the only way to win.
 

Oldman1

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I could be wrong, if western endurance is actually superior to Russia endurance.

I was always under the impression that Russian inventory levels are so enormous that they have the endurance to fight longer than western nations, coupled with lower-end weapons which have faster production times, which I still think is true, but the combined assistance of 40 nations even with low inventories like the German military which is frankly quite pathetic, would be able to supply Ukraine much longer than Russia would expect, and in a war of attrition which Russia is expected to succeed, could actually struggle to advance.

Western production levels aside from the US is abysmally slow in producing systems, the US is the only reason why this war can sustain itself. So I think Russia loses the only advantage it has, which is endurance, and just has to outmatch Ukraine with firepower (which it does), but seems to not yield rapid results. Pace of advancements are very slow, and without recruitment could petter out. Russia could actually lose this war, if it continues for a few years.
The reason western production of military weaponry is so low is because nobody expect a major war in Europe ever to happen. Sure there have been wars in Europe mostly in Yugoslavia and not as major that it would affect all of Europe. The Russians have a hard time advancing as posters mentioned is because of advance anti tank weaponry and artillery as well as IEDS and mines. Its not about how much Russia can produce but more about their ability to deliver them and without them getting blown up especially their ammo depots. Can't advance if you can't artillery the enemy to bits and push further. They won't send in tanks and infantry until the area is cleared out by artillery. Hence the slow pace.
 

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