• Tuesday, November 19, 2019

UAE, India and the Rafale issue

Discussion in 'Arab Defence Forum' started by Windjammer, Feb 14, 2017.

  1. Khafee

    Khafee PROFESSIONAL

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    He will cancel the Raffy's if you don't believe him:lol:

    :cheers:
    Have a good evening
     
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  2. A.P. Richelieu

    A.P. Richelieu SENIOR MEMBER

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    SAAB has said that a contract with India would make India a hub, not the hub.

    Brazil and Sweden would be other hubs.
    If Brazil orders additional Gripen, they will produce it locally, regardless of any MII contract.
    If Brazil promote Gripen in South America or in other places, the aircrafts will not be produced in India.
     
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  3. randomradio

    randomradio BANNED

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    I agree, but come on, look at the markets India will get access to. ASEAN, Africa, Middle East, the rest of Asia. These are the important markets.

    Brazil can keep S. America and Sweden can keep Europe.

    Yes. That's fine.

    No, but it looks like you will be more than willing to pressure UAE to cancel its air force if most of it's sent to India for maintenance.
     
  4. Khafee

    Khafee PROFESSIONAL

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    I'm glad the world is seeing how clueless you are.
     
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  5. Taygibay

    Taygibay PROFESSIONAL

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    You cite no names and incognitos.
    I give quotes by the person in charge.

    The field ain't even. End of discussion.

    Tay.
     
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  6. Louiq XIV

    Louiq XIV FULL MEMBER

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    You may won't believe it but many countries want to trade with France as well. So the Indian added value here is still hypothetical.


    Give me the list and I'll be able to see if those countries could have been natural prospects for French made Rafale or not.


    We'll extend Mérignac capacity and create a new line if needed. Do you think it is a problem for us really ?
    I've read that many sub-contractors are working just one day a year for Rafale so even if (a miracle) production had to be multiplied by 10 that wouldn't be a problem. "Un problème de riches" as we say in France.


    No you fail to understand that Dassault is not Renault. France has a huge control over military production of Dassault. The Rafale intellectual property must be something highly complicated but the Rafale is more a French government thing than a DA product. So DA is not free to chase for profit like any other normal company that has full control of its products.


    You've got nothing to prove that and that would be a suicide for Dassault.


    The Rafale in its category is extremely competitive. We have lost because of politics or because of the offer was not adapted to the need of the country who needed cheaper but less capable fighters like in Brazil or Switzerland. Those offer were cheaper but for a less powerful product so nothing "uncompetitive" here.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2017
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  7. randomradio

    randomradio BANNED

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    Now you are just in denial. "A person" is good enough because these "persons" are supposed to remain incognito when deals are being made. What matters is the publication is legit and the journalist is very well known, Manu Pubby.

    The process demands exports. That's why Saab and LM are talking about it, that's why even Dassault is offering it. Your pride won't stand in the way of what is obviously beneficial to Dassault and France.

    http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2017/01/india-uae-to-explore-joint-production.html
    “We are looking at armaments, we are looking at armoured personnel carriers. We are looking at joint-production of aircraft,” Ministry of External Affairs Secretary Amar Sinha told journalists during a press conference on Tuesday.

    Here also, the source is legit. He is talking about having some Rafales for UAE produced in India. Whether this may come to pass or not is unimportant, the fact is this shows Dassault is open to produce Rafales for export from India.

    I understand Khafee, he hates India, so he doesn't like to see India benefiting in anyway, especially at UAE's expense, even though UAE has signed a MoU with Reliance to maintain their weapons. I'm not saying India will make UAE Rafales, the Indian line will be too young for that, but I'm saying they will be supported in India.
    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...re-defence-equipment/articleshow/49136696.cms

    http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...l-ship-manufacturing/articleshow/48856842.cms

    http://www.business-standard.com/ar...orate-with-uae-s-mubadala-117021500999_1.html

    But in your case, it is quite astounding because you clearly don't see that this setup is beneficial to Dassault and France as well. A typical case of pearls before swines.

    Yup, end of conversation. You will see it for yourself when everything is said and done.
     
  8. randomradio

    randomradio BANNED

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    None of that has translated to a sale.

    The full list is classified, but some countries are known, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Venezuela, Chile, of course, Brazil. There's Argentina too.

    In fact, some of them are more interested in the airborne Brahmos, which means the sale of Su-30MKI along with it. Once Brahmos-NG is made, it can be equipped on Rafale also, so the Brahmos-Rafale combo will find more sales.

    Why waste money expanding when there is another cheaper and larger line being built?

    Yes, some subcontractors finish early, some subcontractors finish much later. Your supply chain is as fast as your slowest subcontractor. So you will have to take that into account.

    Bro, Dassault is setting up a factory with Reliance in India for exports also.

    Why?

    Even Picdel is of the opinion that France should develop AMCA together with India and buy it for the ADLA/MN, to replace the Mirage-2000s and older Rafales. Defence production between India and France can be synergistic. It's of immense benefit to both countries.

    As it stands, Dassault has an order of 180 jets from France, and future order is only for 45 jets. In India, the potential is anywhere between 200-350, all new build. Even if France orders all 225 jets as promised, that's just an increase of another 45 jets. So it's obvious that when you pit a 90 jets order against a potential of up to 350 jets, the market with the 350 jets will become more important. Even 200 jets is more than France's potential of just 90 jets.

    When shareholders look at the balance sheets, pride is the last thing on their mind.

    The problem is you have lost deals where you shouldn't have. Particularly in competition with Typhoon, F-15 and F-16. Even Gripen. Even the Qatar order should have been as many as 72 jets, had it not been for the F-15s.

    And you have no access to markets that India will have. All your Rafale customers are simply your older M-2000 customers. There is no breakthrough with new customers. Adding India in the supply chain can significantly reduce the impact of politics in a deal, and provide extremely good cost competitive advantage to Dassault.

    Take UAE for example, you are selling 60 jets to them. But once India gets in, India can make an offer they can't refuse. We will tell them, "Buy 60 more jets from an Indian line and we will buy another 100,000 bpd of oil from you for 10 years". Win-win. France cannot make such an offer.

    It's even better because Reliance is involved in Rafale production. Those 100,000 bpd will go straight to the brothers's own refineries, which they will then sell back to the UAE as processed petroleum. They are involved in so many businesses that it becomes very easy to barter defence contracts, an advantage that no other defence company in the world has. Give it 10 years, even Boeing and LM will look tiny in front of this conglomerate. And Dassault will have a lot of leverage in this company.

    In fact, France and India will begin selling defence equipment in all sectors, not just fighter jets, because Reliance wants to get into all defence fields, armour, ships, submarines, fighters, transports, helicopters etc. And the Rafale partners can easily become partners in other fields as well.

    It's a very long term and lucrative partnership. You want to ignore all that for what, make a few extra Rafales in France, while hoping to get contracts you will never get?
     
  9. Shaji Pappan

    Shaji Pappan FULL MEMBER

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    Why you are getting angry man?? Nobody says anything bad about your country.. If two governments discuss about defense deals, there are professionals in both sides who knows reality more than you and me.. They will conclude things..
     
  10. Louiq XIV

    Louiq XIV FULL MEMBER

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    Egypt, Qatar, India


    Al those can be French prospects without Indian help. Some of them are already former customers. But Brazil has already bought fighters and Argentina has no money.


    You may don't but French taxpayer know why.


    No No and ... No we don't have any production limitation. The only limitation we have is our ability to sell.


    That is you're word but I have never heard that before. So far only MII for India is on the table.


    Because once again you don't understand that the Rafale belongs to France. Almost everything has been finance by France. And France interests are not always DA shareholders interests.


    No. The only one that we really shouldn't have lost is in Morocco where we messed-up.

    So far you haven't told me the name of a single country where we would have no chance without India.

    Why can't we make such an offer ? We use more than a million bpd of oil.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2017
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  11. Shaji Pappan

    Shaji Pappan FULL MEMBER

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    Why you taking national average.. These are high skilled works.. High skilled in India & France works in same rate man.. HAL has nothing to do with it.. They are busy with LCA.. It's Dassault Reliance Aerospace Ltd (DRAL) will Make rafels in India..
    http://www.forbesindia.com/article/...nce-group-form-aerospace-jv-for-india/45987/1
    http://www.oneindia.com/india/reliance-partnership-rafale-deal-not-threat-says-hal-2349161.html
     
  12. randomradio

    randomradio BANNED

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    Those are already captive markets.

    Many countries want air launched Brahmos, that's possible only with SU-30MKI.

    They will all find money when strategic gains are to be made. France doesn't offer any major strategic gains, only a plane.

    The French taxpayer is not relevant here.

    That's never the case. If a subcontractor takes 3 months to deliver parts for 11 Rafales/year, then doubling that number would mean 6 months is lost to making Rafale parts. And Rafale is not as profitable as Falcon. So the subcontractor is actually making less money even with double the orders. In this case, they may decide not to increase their capacity.

    Some quotes from Picdel (in italics): This is for @Taygibay also. Obviously @Khafee can take home some pointers.
    There is no problem of employment for Dassault. Dassault can close completly military planes and Focus on civilian Falcon without damage for the company.

    Rafale is profitable by construction the French law fix the margin of the project at 7/93. It is low, and it's why Dassault could better use it's ressources on Falcon.

    You don't understand, cost doesn't matter for military production, the margin is 7/93 whatever is the cost. Trappier said that he will agree to move the assembly line in India because this activity is not interesting compare to civilian, not to reduce the cost.

    The link say that the workforce to build one Rafale is 3x the workforce to build one Falcon, but it is with subcontractors and there is a weapon system which is subcontracted mainly to Thales on a Rafale. For Dassault the rate is close to 2. And Dassault build 11 Rafale a year and 77 Falcon a year so there is 3.5 more workforce on Falcon than on Rafale.

    Trappier (Dassault CEO) would like to have only one production line.....in India! But French government doesn't allow it. (and some people thinks that the French line would close soon!)


    Military profits are not always good. Profits come mainly with volume of sales, but France obviously doesn't have the volumes. This is where India shines. And adding export production to an already large order makes the line more competitive.

    This will help you understand more.
    http://www.latribune.fr/entreprises...le-le-coup-de-blues-de-dassault-aviation.html

    Dassault's gonna chase profits. That won't change. The only thing that is of importance is how we can come to an agreement where everybody wins. And that's where the Indo-French GTG will play its part. When the two PMs get involved, things get a lot easier, and the French govt can be squeezed for more by both Dassault+ and the Indian govt.

    Not my word.
    http://www.indiatimes.com/news/indi...to-give-boost-to-tejas-technology-247838.html
    "It will not be possible to roll out any of the 36 fighters being acquired by India from the production line as it would take time to set up but future orders, including exports, will be fulfilled with the new line," a person involved in the discussions has told ET.

    French govt is also involved, it's a govt to govt contract.

    Then let's see how many more sales you will get by going alone. But that opportunity will not come since most future export sales will come out of the Indian line.

    You can't. You can make such an offer only if there is growth. India's oil consumption is growing, French oil consumption is decreasing.
    http://peakoilbarrel.com/a-surprising-look-at-oil-consumption/
    France’s oil consumption has been dropping since 2006 and really took a dive in 2014. France’s oil consumption is down 17 percent since 2001.

    How will you offer to buy more oil when you can't?

    And why will a French oil company make a deal for the benefit of Dassault? Here we are talking about Reliance selling Rafales in exchange for Reliance buying oil, and then selling petrol back to the UAE. There's no way you can do that, nobody can, only Reliance can. Reliance is a giant conglomerate, they are into a lot of industries. The elder brother controls 123 subsidiaries under Reliance Industries. The younger brother has setup 10 new defence subsidiaries under the Reliance ADAG.

    India can make real strategic deals with pretty much all other countries, in time. France cannot, only with a few countries and only in a few fields.
     
  13. Louiq XIV

    Louiq XIV FULL MEMBER

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    No market is captive. You have to fight to sell all the time. You said 'None of that has translated to a sale' but you were WRONG.


    France is as much a strategic partner as India for most countries in the world. On every aspects : defense, politics or economy France is at least as much if not more attractive than India so you're WRONG again


    Your answers are irrelevant not the French taxpayer which is the ultimate owner of the Rafale. Nothing will happen with the Rafale if it goes against the interest of the French taxpayer because it will become a political debate in France. I can tell you that if someday it is understood that the billions of R&D over 3 decades are spent to help India to export that won't be easy to explain to the French people and most of them won't agree and the move will be blocked.


    Not officially confirmed by DA or the French government so they are only dreamers like you for now.


    I can assure you that won't happen without a 2nd revolution in France with the current political mood.



    Yes we can. We buy billions of $ of oil a year far more than the value of export market fighters. So wrong again.


    You are too ambitious. A local production line for India is something normal if you become a big user of Rafale. To export a handful if needed due to though schedule is also possible. But to produce all future export Rafale from India instead of France is something unacceptable and that move will be rejected by so many people here that Trappier won't be able to explain it.
     
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  14. Taygibay

    Taygibay PROFESSIONAL

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    Louis, it's no use! Check the above!
    It's like trying to baptize a cat, he doesn't get it.

    Oh, and I saw it first, :p:, Tay.
     
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  15. Khafee

    Khafee PROFESSIONAL

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    And the UAE will tell you go away, you are drunk!
     
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