I agree with much of what you say, except that you passed a premature judgement on my opinion. We are almost on the same page. I don't like anarchy and chaos. Frankly, you are among the best thinkers I've met on this forum. But you read too little about me to understand my position. I'll attempt to clarify things here.
Erdogan made one big mistake: He supported the Arab spring revolutions, which, Islamically, is haram (forbidden). The prophet (SAWS) explicitly forbade revolting against a corrupt government, provided the leaders pray the salah and do not try to enforce apostasy. All deposed leaders used to pray (Hosni Mubarak, Muhammad Gaddafi, Ben Ali, and all the Arab kings. That means it's a religious duty for "their civilians" to obey these governments and not seek to overthrow them. This is where the Muslim Brotherhood got it wrong.
Erdogan's support for the Arab spring went against Muhammad's (SAWS) instructions. This resulted in massive suffering for the Muslims of these countries and invited all kinds of attacks against Turkey. Had Erdogan not made this mistake, Turkey would most likely be Saudi Arabia's security partner and could even replace America as the guarantor of security to the Arab monarchies like it does for Qatar. This would have increased Turkey's influence, boosted its economy and help the country get militarily stronger. Turkey might even have succeeded at building a Muslim alliance of sort to prevent Western invasion of any Muslim country. But now, these countries are suspicious of Turkey and won't cooperate. Erdogan has tried to correct this mistake, but the damage has already been done.
The reset between Qatar, the Quad, and Turkey isn't really strong due to the deep distrust they share now. But it helps all parties to step back from confrontation. The biggest evidence for this is Libya, Syria, Somalia, Tunisia, and Yemen. Although Turkey could help the Saudis in Yemen, it doesn't even sell them the military equipment that could defeat the Houthis. Had this being Qatar's war, it would be a different matter. Turkey's action is saying they don't give a **** about Saudi or Emirati regime stability. I know they sold the U.A.E. drones, but very little and only after the U.A.E. injected massive funds into the Turkish economy
Someone who's guided has the right to question a misguided person's Islam lest the misguided misguide others or harm the Muslim world. Secondly, Erdogan has the right to invade Saudi Arabia with the aim of unifying the Muslim world under a Sharia system if he is able to do that. Don't confuse this point with what I said earlier about overthrowing governments. Citizens are NOT permitted Islamically to revolt against a corrupt government that does not stop them from worshipping Allah. But this restriction does not apply to another Muslim country that has the military capacity to depose corrupt regimes and establish Shariah law. The Egyptians should not revolt against Sisi, but Erdogan has the Islamic right to overthrow Sisi militarily if he can. You can challenge me on this. There's no nationality in Islam. Any leader who's able to reunite the Muslim world SHOULD do that even by militarily invading some countries. That was what Salahuddeen did and he's one of our greatest heroes. America has the right to invade Iraq based on lies but no other country has that right? America did it because they COULD.
The AKP in Turkey wants to unite Muslim countries even if not in a Kaliphate style. Something like NATO is what they want to see happen. But to do this, they have to secure Turkey's borders first. Making Turkey more secure has NOT diminished this desire in them even by an inch.
The dialog between Egypt and Turkey will break down unless one of two things happen
- Sisi allows democracy to be established in Libya (a near impossibility for him due to regime security concerns and Libya's fragmented militias and armed forces)
- Turkey allows the U.S. and Europe to establish dictatorship in Libya - maybe Haftar, his son, or some other pupppet. I can't see the AKP agreeing to this. This is exactly what Sisi and his allies are demanding for full normalization. Libya poses an existential threat to Egypt, Saudi, U.A.E. and Bahrain. All these countries share land borders. Isntability in one will affect the others. If Egypt descends into chaos, Saudi Arabia will follow.
This is why I'm almost 100% certain that this normalization talks will break down. The LNA and GNU forces CANNOT coexist. One must destroy the other. Anyone who expects a different outcome is grossly mistaken.