• Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Turkish F-16C/D Vs Russian SU-30SM3

Discussion in 'Air Warfare' started by Shabi1, Feb 14, 2016.

  1. Shabi1

    Shabi1 FULL MEMBER

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    With the deployment of Russian SU-30SM3s following the downing of a SU-24 by Turkey there is a very real possibility that there will be a F-16C/D Vs SU-30SM confrontation. Things are escalating so chances seem to increase. What are your takes on this.

    SU-30s do have an advantage in standalone but Turks are very clever and F-16s will have support of force multiplier assets along with carefully thought out tactics.

    F-16 Designer: Turkey 'Set up an Ambush' for Unsuspecting Russian Su-24
    Next Up for Syria: Even More Lethal Russian Military Hardware | The National Interest Blog

    F-16 Designer: Turkey 'Set up an Ambush' for Unsuspecting Russian Su-24

    Pierre Sprey, a highly respected US defense analyst who was on the team that developed the F-16, says that he has no doubt whatsoever that the Turkish Air Force attack on the Russian Su-24M bomber over Syria last month was the result of a well-planned ambush.
    Asked for comment by Harper's Magazine on the Turkish F-16 shoot down of a Russian Su-24M over Syria near the Turkish border, Sprey noted that after carrying out a close analysis of both Russian and Turkish materials on the attack, "the evidence looks pretty strong that the Turks were setting up an ambush."

    It's obvious, according to Sprey, that the Turkish F-16s were not just patrolling their borders, but carrying out a special assignment, circling for over an hour at an extremely low altitude waiting for the Russian planes.



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    © REUTERS/ KHALIL ASHAWI
    'Utterly Confused' US No-Fly Zones Target Syrian Government, Russia
    "They certainly weren't doing anything that would point to a routine air patrol along the border," the analyst noted. "Their actions in no way represented a routine, all day long type of patrol."


    Sprey recalled that the Su-24M bombers' targets were in an area about five miles (about 8 kilometers) south of the Turkish border, near an important border crossing harboring tribesmen sympathetic to al-Nusra and Daesh (ISIL).

    Noting that the Turkish planes had flown around in an area 25 miles (40 km) north of the border crossing for nearly an hour-and-a-half, "the crucial thing," the analyst said, was that "they were not loitering up at high altitude –say twenty to thirty thousand feet – to conserve fuel, which is where you would normally be loitering if you were simply doing a routine border patrol. They were loitering quite low, at about 7,500 to eight thousand feet…below the coverage of the Syrian and Russian radars down around Latakia."

    Given their distance (over 400 km) from their home base, and their low altitude loitering, Sprey suggested that the F-16s were probably topped up on fuel from the air, which again points to the idea that it was an ambush.

    "…It's now about 10:15. The Russian Su-24s are just finishing their racetrack pattern after their first strike and are about to re-attack from the holding position well east of the target. At that point, the two F-16s break out of their loiter patterns to fly in a straight line south, quite certainly under Turkish ground control because they clearly are not hunting for the Su-24s and following a curved path, they're heading straight for an intercept point that apparently ground control has provided them."



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    © SPUTNIK/ MIKHAIL VOSKRESENSKIY
    Turkey Made Plans to Shoot Down Russian Su-24 a Month in Advance - Assange
    In the analyst's words, following the attack, the Turkish plane executed a turn, again dove under eight thousand feet to avoid Syrian radar, and actually penetrated Syrian airspace "before [heading] north to go home to Diyarbakir, probably at that point out of fuel and hooking up with a tanker again in order to make it home."


    Suggesting that it remains unclear whether the violation of Turkish airspace, even for 17 seconds as the Turks claim, actually took place, Sprey noted that in any case, their planes did not attack the Russian plane on its first attack run, "but simply sat and waited until the plane flew a long re-attack pattern and came back on a second run seven or eight minutes later, and that's when they attacked and shot him down."

    Ultimately, the analyst suggested, "between the fuel-guzzling low altitude of the holding pattern of the F-16s, which miraculously coincided with the flight times of the Russian airplanes, and the fact that they didn't even chase the airplane immediately upon its alleged border incursion, all that smells very much like a pre-planned operation."

    "Such an ambush," Sprey noted, "wouldn't have been hard to pull off, because the Russians, in their detailed account of this, state very clearly that they had coordinated with NATO, with the Americans, announcing this attack well in advance, and had followed the protocol of listening on the NATO-agreed frequency for any warnings or alerts from NATO or from the Turks."



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    © AP PHOTO/ VADIM GHIRDA
    Russia, France Should Bar Turkish Jets From Syrian Airspace
    As for the Turks' supposed radio warnings, the analyst noted that they may have of the kind that were not intended to be received: "Now it so happens that Su-24s have no radios onboard for receiving UHF-frequency signals, a fact which is well known to American, NATO and Turkish intelligence." Thus, while "it's likely true that the Turks radioed warnings…those warnings may have been deliberately transmitted only on the international civilian frequency so that the Su-24s would never hear them."

    Read more: F-16 Designer: Turkey 'Set up an Ambush' for Unsuspecting Russian Su-24
     
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  2. damm1t

    damm1t SENIOR MEMBER

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    Why I am not surprised :)
     
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  3. That Guy

    That Guy PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    I doubt there will be another major incident between Russia and Turkey. In fact, if KSA and Turkey are both serious about sending troops into Syria, with US backing, Russia may end up being pushed out of the conflict nonviolently, due to political pressure.
     
  4. Syed Hussain

    Syed Hussain FULL MEMBER

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    Well the thing is that this time Russia is waiting for them to try the "adventure" again and as far as the SU-30sm VS F-16 thing is concerned...lets not even waist our time and "keystrokes" on that :tup:
     
  5. Tshering22

    Tshering22 ELITE MEMBER

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    Iran Hezbollah and Russia will continue their presence in Syria till Assad is safe.

    Turk-Saudi plan for boots on ground is really counter productive at this point as this would cause serious flashpoints between Syrian and Russian side with the Turk-KSA side.
     
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  6. Ankit Kumar

    Ankit Kumar BANNED

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    About the invasion part, yes . The Saudi, are going to execute an exercise with Arabs and its coalition partners while gathering 3,50,000 men, near 20,000 tanks , armoured vehicles and SPHs, near 2,500 aircrafts and 450 helicopters.

    I see this buildup in north Saudi as a cover to prepare and start the invasion.

    The Russians have quite a good amount of air assets, so they will be more or less able to confront the air, the problem will be ground. They cannot stop an invading force of such big numbers accompanied by armoured and artillery divisions.
    How they take it up will sure be a thing of interest.
    ( Some say tactical nukes....) but its too far fetched.

    Aleppo will surely fall to the Russia Nd allies, no doubt.
     
  7. Lonely Hermit

    Lonely Hermit FULL MEMBER

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    If you control the air, you also control the ground.
     
  8. touela

    touela FULL MEMBER

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    And that's exactly why US and Nato's bombing have brought them total control of all the areas they've bombed heavily for like a year ?!?!?!??!?
     
  9. anon45

    anon45 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Pierre Sprey is not the designer of the F-16, or even an engineer. He was part of a group of analysts (google fighter mafia) that contributed to the set of requirements for an aircraft that eventually became the F-16. He is also a clown stuck in the 1970's and not to be trusted on issues outside of the time period.
     
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  10. madmusti

    madmusti BANNED

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    [​IMG]
     
  11. Oublious

    Oublious SENIOR MEMBER

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    What a stupid article, ambush like we are fighting on the ground. Are we going to ambuhs behind the clouds?

    And far for this part of the story.

    So first we have not warned, and now teher su24 don't have UHF:-).
     
  12. That Guy

    That Guy PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    I think you need to reread my comment. Russia will not engage any sort of invading force, and neither will the invading forces engage Russia. Such a conflict would spiral out of control, as such both sides would actively seek to avoid each other. Why do you think Russia has never truly retaliated to Turkey's downing of the Su-24?

    None of the actors are irrational, they've not looking to destroy the world. The invading force will target ISIS, but also actively hunt Assad's inner circle. Russia will most likely transport Assad out of the country, they'll never protect himwith their own troops, while he's still in Syria.

    Counter productive for whom? The logic behind the Turk-KSA side is that Russia is rational enough to actively avoid the invading forces, and I believe that Russia is.

    Russia doesn't really care about Assad's rule, they care about the geopolitics of it. If they can get what they want, they'll abandon Assad at the drop of a hat.

    The only ones that it's really counterproductive for is Iran, whom want Assad to stay.
     
  13. HAIDER

    HAIDER ELITE MEMBER

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    I thought German already retired F4
     
  14. Tshering22

    Tshering22 ELITE MEMBER

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    Syria has far more strategic importance for Russia in the region than anyone else. I am talking about Assad as the last Russian fortress in Middle East.

    Rest are all US/EU aligned countries and Yemen is in a bad state.

    Considering its presence in mediterranean, Russia will do its nut to save Assad as there is little NATO, Turkey or Saudi can offer Russians in terms of strategic benefits.

    Turkey as such has a negative image in Russia; this time if there is any attack on Russian assets, the Bear won't sit down quietly.

    NATO protocol can be invoked only if Turkey as a country is attacked; which means that Russians are free to take their gloves off to target their and Saudi troops inside Syria without touching either countries' borders directly.

    NATO bombings in Syria are doing nothing but targeting those sympathetic to Assad.

    The real slugfest is done by Russia who is crushing terrorists along with Syrian military.
     
  15. That Guy

    That Guy PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    Like I said, if Russia can get what it wants, Assad is expendable.

    Yemen, sure, but the rest isn't true.

    You say that, but Russia's aims are a) keeping it's military base, and b) pressuring the US into giving up on Ukraine, by diverting their attention to Syria. If the Russians can get one out of two, they'll be happy to let Assad go.

    Turkey is protected by NATO, an anti-Russian alliance, Russia would do anything. It would devastate Russia's already weak economy, if the Russians started a war.

    If Russia violates Turkish airspace, like they did last time, even for less than a second, Turkey will have every right.

    Any war that Russia starts will be devastating to the Russian people and economy, they'd be isolated completely. No one in their right mind would back Russia. India may end up supporting Russia, but even China would only (at most) pay lip service.

    Russians can't afford a conventional war, so they'll keep their gloves on.