• Monday, January 20, 2020

Trump withdraws US from Iran nuclear deal

Discussion in 'Iranian Defence Forum' started by OldTwilight, May 8, 2018.

  1. Stryker1982

    Stryker1982 FULL MEMBER

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    I don't think Iran can enforce such demands unless the PG region is laced with AshBM's, CM's, and torpedo's.
     
  2. Arminkh

    Arminkh SENIOR MEMBER

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    It would work well as a psychological warfare. Us also says a lot of things that it's not able to do but still affects world markets. A list of sanctioned entities by Iran would send the oil price above $100 per barrel
     
  3. raptor22

    raptor22 SENIOR MEMBER

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    I agree with you but one of problems in Iran ain't going after a technology .. for example right now we exports high tech devices to china all designed and produced in Iran by Iranian experts but when I ask them we want 50 of them annually they can not ...
    we don't have people could design production lines for high numbers experts of productions
    or materials .. lab scale no problem once ask them this amount of that material response is nothing .. صنعتگر کم داریم تا دلت بخواد محقق داریم
     
  4. VEVAK

    VEVAK SENIOR MEMBER

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    We live in a world with international laws and if Iran openly breaks a treaty that it has agreed upon no country in the world will EVER trust us again!!!!!!!! And we are not the worlds sole superpower with the worlds largest economy where we can simply muscle our way pass it!
    None of our treaties would matter!!!!! Nothing we agree upon will ever be trusted ever again!!!!!!!!

    It's as simple as that!!!!!!!! And frankly it would be idiotic not to do so!!!!!!!!!!

    Once Iran enriches above 60% going the rest of the way is not as time consuming if the tech is there and you don't need large quantities of highly enriched uranium (above 90%) to get a chain reaction! Only a small portion of the fissile material is actually enriched to that level!

    Once Iran enriches to 60% and then leaves the NPT then everyone will be under the assumption that Iran is weeks away from testing a Nuclear Bomb but we will have to leave the NPT if we ever get to that point because it would be idiotic NOT too

    I'm not saying we need to leave the NPT tomorrow that's why as I said there needs to be logical steps taken before we reach that point!!!!!!!!!!!! For now we still haven't even left the JCPOA yet!!!!!!!!
     
  5. VEVAK

    VEVAK SENIOR MEMBER

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    Yes it's a weakness Iran needs to work upon and invest in!!!!!!!
    Iran technologically shouldn't have a problem in developing industrial robots let alone other industrial tools & equipment!

    A lot of this has to do with bad management! Not technology! And a lot of the time the actual blame falls on the Iranian government!!!!!!!!
    Iranian GM's & CEO that work for government owned companies constantly get pressured to hire people because each government that comes to power is more worried about unemployment rate rather than the actual products produced.....

    So rather than paying for a $20,000 Robot that will end up paying for it's self within a few years they hire people that do the same task in over twice the time it takes a robot to accomplish.
    That's why investing in advanced tool like advanced industrial 3d printers & Industrial robots is so vital if Iran ever hopes to compete globally

    As for your Order no real business that's after making money is going to pass up on orders without a good reason if orders are coming in then you simply expand but that takes time and in Iran due to currency problems a lot of companies are more after foreign currency and I would say that's why they don't wanna fill your order. Because even if they are constantly expanding production the have backed up foreign orders to fill and they become a priority for them!!!!
    I don't see that as a bad thing! Yes I would also be upset if export orders are a priority for them but if Iran wants to compete globally foreign orders need to be a priority but no business is going to pass up on money given time they will finally get to domestic orders as well!


    Iran's economy today is loosing upwards of $20 Billion USD a year in international receipts from tourism with indirect benefits that take that number to $50 Billion USD a year at least and an estimated loss of $100 Billion USD loss annually if you were to add potential business ventures and or marketing opportunities into the mix!
    We are also losing God knows how many BILLIONS due to continued expansion of Sat dishes in Iran!WHY??? Because we wanna enforce religious policies in every corner of the country? Because we don't wanna compete with channels like GEM TV, Manoto, PMC,.... inside Iran??? Why? If the only thing Sat dishes had to offer compared to Iranian broadcasted channels were VOA and BBC farsi then no one would be buying them!

    And simply put that's how the Iranian government should be fixing unemployment rather than over hiring!

    Today fake Turkish Diesel Jeans are of a higher quality than real Diesel Jeans sold in the U.S. and people from all over Europe travel there to buy them and slowly but surly Turkish companies started producing better quality products and slowly they are moving beyond low tech products!!
    And the MAIN thing that allowed all that to happen was the Turkish tourism industry that forced Turkish companies to compete at least in terms of quality & design with major companies! and within decades Turkey went from an economy about Iran's size to an economy twice the size of Iran's with a none Oil economy but with the same size population.
    Today Turkish TV programs like Harim Soltan, Toghrol, Mah paykar,.... get translated to various languages which will slowly allow Turkey to expand it's marketing capability well beyond it's own boarders.


    Today I would say most Russians like Iran as a country for it's politics at least most Russians I personally know do but millions of Russians don't travel to Iran annually for Tourism they go to Turkey as to why they choose Turkey over Iran the answer is quite simple!!!!!!!!!! And we have NO ONE to blame but ourselves!
     
  6. BATMAN

    BATMAN ELITE MEMBER

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    Treaty did its meaning full purpose, which was an economic bailout.
    Another treaty will happen, when its required next.
     
  7. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal SENIOR MEMBER

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    Talk about oversimplifying things.

    Turkey is under ZERO sanctions, friendly with the US, they recieve transfer of technology on MANY deals that they sign with foreign countries, they are helped by many different European countries since they are in NATO. The list goes on.

    Turkey asks for ToT on technology if it can’t reverse engineer and companies agree in order to win the deal. That is a huge difference in deals that Iran signs.

    The reason Turkey finally prospered is because they got their central government in order after decades of coups and dysfunctional government. Compare that to Iran whose fractured government cannot even Agree to revamp Economic laws and pass some reforms for pro growth policies.

    Tourism helps Turkey, but take a look at the type of tourists going into Turkey and you see people from 2nd/3rd rate countries (Iran, Arab countries, Russia, Pakistan, African countries like Egypt, etc).

    Iran turning into Turkey is unlikely as long as US is pressuring the world to keep that country out of economic circle.

    You are comparing apples to oranges. Like many of your posts you over simplify complex problems.

    For the sake of example, if Iran were to have a robust tourism industry right this second that is simply another area for US/EU to target with sanctions. They can simply ban their citizens or easily pass out laws saying that if you visit Iran you will need to apply for some complex visa process to enter their own country.

    Then you would have another hypothetical problem where there are now hotels/restaurants/resorts in iran facing economic problems because of a substantial decrease in tourism to the country. Just look at what happened to Turkey when Russia prevented its citizens from visiting Turkey for tourism. You saw how quickly turkey moved to resolve the Syria confrontation they had. Just take a look at Egypt to see how decreased tourism can affect your economy.

    Again my point is things are much more complex than you make it. While a tourism industry would certainly benefit Iran, that is not what I am arguing, it will also create another area for foreign powers to pressure Iran economically.

    If Iran was a US stooge right now, it wouldn’t be facing a lot of these problems. So without normalization of ties, it’s hard for Iran to escape economic pressures.
     
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  8. VEVAK

    VEVAK SENIOR MEMBER

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    Turkey isn't bringing in +$35 Billion USD a year in international receipts because it has good ties!!!!! And that's just the direct benefits of their International Tourism industry!!!!!!
    The small business opportunities those tourists bring, the marketing opportunities, the demand for Turkish currency they bring,..... These things are priceless!!!!!!!!!!!

    Yes if Iran had a healthy Tourism industry such an industry would be so vital that the decrease of such an industry would effect the country!!!!!!!!!!!!! SO WHAT??????????????
    It's like saying lets not export Oil and Gas because if we ever get sanctioned and prevented from exporting Oil and Gas our economy would be in trouble!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Do you know how absurd that sounds???????
    And you can apply that absurd theory to any exported product!
    That doesn't mean you don't diversify your economy in every which way you can!!!!!!!!

    And if anything we 1st have to stop shooting ourselves in the foot before we start worrying about escaping foreign pressure!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Right now Iran is loosing control of the most powerful marketing tool inside the country due to an ever expansion of Sat Dishes!!!!!!! And yes Iran may be able to stop Iranian products from marketing on those channels but all your doing is giving foreign brands to have a better opportunity to get a better foothold in our country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  9. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal SENIOR MEMBER

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    Again more rambling.

    The real reason Iran is in this situation is because of the “neither east nor west” & “resistance economy” policy. As well as a serious miscalculation in the 30 year reign of the Islamic Republic when it comes to its oil.

    Let me explain:

    By adopting a policy of resistance economy and not relying on any country economically you also eliminate any country to NOT rely on YOU economically. Thus magnifying the concept of sanctions on you. If you do not have leverage on the opposing countries (see North Korea) then you have no card to play economic warfare. Compare this to China that both relies on domestic production, but also embraces economic trade.

    Alongside this policy was the disastrous thinking by Iran’s government that its oil would never be sanctioned and thus it would always have a steady source of petro revenue. Iran assumed the world couldn’t handle a lack of Iranian oil.

    Why is this important?

    Because by always being reassured that you have (oil) revenue to rely on, you had a half hearted attempt at passing the need reforms in 80’s and 90’s to put Iran in better position to compete economically.

    So inevitably decades later when Saudi Arabia increased production, the development of fracking technology which transformed US oil industry, increase of Iraqi oil production, etc. you had the ability for the US to sanction Iranian oil which even during Bush Adminstration was considered a unlikely draconian option.

    Now you have an Iranian economy that has weakly embraced economic reform over the past 3 decades and made a half hearted attempt at a “resistance economy”.
     
  10. VEVAK

    VEVAK SENIOR MEMBER

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    Your the one rambling nonsense!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And changing the subject!!!!!!!!!!!

    Iran's Auto Industry is both reliant on the French just as the French are reliant on us!

    Who exactly do you think Iran sell's it's Oil & Gas too????????????

    A resistance economy has nothing to do with NOT wanting international business partners!!!!!!!!

    upload_2018-7-12_14-24-35.png



    Have you ever even been to Iran??????????????

    NO East NO West is mainly about NOT wanting to be a puppet state for any Easter or Western country!!!!!!!

    And the Slogan NO East NO West was 1st created when the USSR was still around!!!!!!!!!!! Meaning we didn't wanna join the communist block NOR the U.S. Capitalists block!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    As for a Resistance economy a resistance economy for Iran means technologically being able to produce anything we need domestically if FORCED to do so!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Iran doesn't want to increase production of outdated car engines unless forced to do so!

    Iran doesn't want to be forced to produce outdated computer processers but technologically we have the capability to do so if forced to do so!!!

    And in terms of a resistance economy there is still a long list of things we currently can NOT produce even if we wanted too!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And completing that list is what it means to have a resistance economy for Iran!!!!!! Especially things that are vital to any country! And things that foreigners restrict us from buying like Passenger Aircraft, Advanced Communication sat's,.....

    It has absolutely NOTHING to do with NOT wanting international partners!!!!!!!!!!!! Iran wants as many international business partners as it can including U.S. business partners!!!!!!!! Didn't we sign a deal to buy a bunch of aircrafts from Boeing which have clearly made us dependent on them?


    Let me ask this "Should Iran give up it's Missile Program" for the removal of all sanctions????????????
    My answer to that is NEVER!!!!! Even if the U.S. was to offer 1000 armed F-35's freely + the Removal all sanctions I still wouldn't give up our missile program!!!!!!!! Hell I wouldn't even restrict our Missile Program to under 300km for that let alone give them up!!!!!!!!!

    Saddam restricted it's Missile Program to 300km take a good look at what happened after!!!!!!!!!!! Qaddafi gave up all it's Missiles and take a good look at what happened after!!!

    The only thing I would offer the U.S. in exchange for a fair deal is a promise NOT to ever test an ICBM capable of reaching U.S. soil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And only if it doesn't effect Iran's SLV's for our Space Program! And I would have no problem coordinating our launches with NASA if required to do so!

    The reason Iranian built products haven't been more successful has more to do with Quality, Design & or Marketing!
    If Iran was building Hybird Sedans with the same Quality, Design & Capabilities as a BMW with proper marketing and at a lower cost as a BMW then we can go on about Iran's relations with other countries but until then we have no one else to blame but ourselves for the state of our car industry!!!!!

    And don't forget ~40% of the world population live in China, India & Pakistan!

    And the U.S. obsession with Iran is due to Iran's Geographic location with access to both Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea and is also vital for future ground transport and pipelines on top of Iran's Energy Capabilities, Tourism Potential, various other natural resources on top of a well educated workforce.

    China & India both have ever expanding economies with massive populations and the U.S. is thinking about how to deal with these countries not today not tomorrow but 50 years down the line!!!!!!!!!!

    So giving up our missile program and making peace with Israel is NOT going to take away the U.S. obsession with Iran and that's why there will always be economic pressure on Iran and that's why we need a resistance economy!!!!!!!!!!!
    And all this doesn't mean you kill your own Tourism Industry, Entertainment Industry, Music Industry & the most powerful Marketing tool in your own country!
     
  11. Sineva

    Sineva FULL MEMBER

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    Vevak,I think the exclamation mark "!" key might be broken on your keyboard.
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2018
  12. Sineva

    Sineva FULL MEMBER

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  13. sahureka2

    sahureka2 FULL MEMBER

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  14. Sineva

    Sineva FULL MEMBER

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  15. sha ah

    sha ah FULL MEMBER

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    At the moment Turkey's economy is on the verge of collapse, with the Lira having lost a third of its value after the minor sanctions imposed by Trump. In fact in the last 10 years the Lira has not been doing so great. 10 years ago 1 USD = 1.2 Lira, now 1 USD = 5.7 Lira & it's likely to drop even more this year.

    Having a robust tourism industry is a good thing, however Turkey has had to make tremendous sacrifices in order to achieve this. For example, US troops are currently in Turkey & although being a member of NATO has its benefits, it also comes with its limitations. Just look at how Turkey's desire to buy the S-400 is getting them into even more trouble with Washington.

    In the past the Turks have tried to work out a deal to buy the Patriot Missile Defense system from Washington, however the Americans either outright refused or the Turks were not satisfied with the price tag & the fact that Washington was not willing to offer technology transfers. Of course when you compare the price & performance of both the S-400 & the Patriot systems, there basically is no comparison.

    One S-400 battery costs approx $500 million dollars whereas one Patriot Pac-2 battery costs $1 billion dollars. However the Patriot Pac-2 is not designed to intercept ballistic missiles, which means that if a country like Turkey were to buy the Patriot & wanted that option, they would then have to opt to purchase the THAAD system as well, which costs a whopping $3 billion a battery.

    Realistically the American option is at least EIGHT times as expensive and with this you have to consider the fact that the S-400 is more capable compared to the Patriot. The upside of the American option however is that the THAAD was specifically designed to counter ballistic missiles, whereas the S-400 is like a jack of all trades. However if you consider the fact that the Americans are unwilling to give the Turks technology transfers, its obvious that the S-400 is a much more economical & practical choice for Turkey.

    Despite this, the Americans are imposing a tremendous amount of pressure, threatening Turkey with more sanctions and threatening to withhold the F-35 jets from Turkey. This is despite the fact that Turkey is supposedly a "partner" in the F-35 program, having already made payments toward the jet & the program which led to its creation.

    Turkey is now learning a hard lesson. A lesson which Iran already learned during the Iran-Iraq war in the 80's, when western weapons suppliers refused to sell Iran spare parts, promptly withdrew technicians from the country & even tried to prevent Iran from purchasing weapons & parts from other alternative sources.

    Realistically I believe that Iran could benefit tremendously from not only tourism but also from a free market economy & more liberal societal laws in general. In China for example gambling is banned, however in Macau it's legal & generates tremendous revenue for the nation with most of the earnings coming from outside the country. During the last few decades, the Chinese have turned several desolate & underdeveloped backwaters, like Shenzhen for example, into major metropolitan mega cities simply by designating them as free trade zones. Iran does indeed have limitless potential, however with the current status quo & power structure, Iran has a long way to go before its tourism industry could ever really flourish. At the same time while looking to progress & taking Turkey's current situation into consideration, Iran should be weary of getting into an arrangement where its industry or economy could be used as leverage against it by outside powers looking to pressure the nation into submission.

     
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