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Jan 28, 2020
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WASHINGTON/UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump plans to issue an executive order allowing him to impose U.S. sanctions on anyone who violates a conventional arms embargo against Iran, three sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.
 
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Unless the US thinks Iran was going to buy weapons from US companies, these sanctions won't work just as they haven't on North Korea.

Americans actions are only forcing other nations to pick a side (which they rather not and remain neutral instead), in the new cold war.
 

Arminkh

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WASHINGTON/UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump plans to issue an executive order allowing him to impose U.S. sanctions on anyone who violates a conventional arms embargo against Iran, three sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday.
Not sure what's new about this? They had this sanction on any kind of trade with Iran. Were weapons an exception?
 

TheImmortal

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Not sure what's new about this? They had this sanction on any kind of trade with Iran. Were weapons an exception?
Some (Naive) users on this board thought that Russia and China would swoop in and sell to Iran.

They took the political theater of UN arms vote literally.

World trades in dollar not rial.

Are Russian arms companies willing to be sanctioned over Iran arms trade? Doubtful. Iran doesn’t have much money to throw at lavish foreign arms deals like the Saudi and PG Arabs do, in order to entice Russia to take such a risk.

China is a even a bigger non factor as they hate standing up directly to the US in matters that aren’t of upmost importance.

Meanwhile Iran continues sitting in a deal that gives it no benefits, but suffers the worst sanctions in modern history. Meanwhile idiots like Salehi say we should be pleased with supposed progress of nuclear program by Iran that are a JOKE compared to amount of machines, uranium, sites it had operating prior to the deal that they foolishly negotiated away.

Now Iran has very little leverage even if it DID want to re-negotiate the deal. It has nothing to GIVE UP without capitulating because it already gave up its chips (Fordow, Arak, advanced centrifuges deployment) in the last deal.
 
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SalarHaqq

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No well informed person would claim Russia or China will work wonders. At the same time, every Iranian patriot enjoyed America's unprecedented diplomatic humiliation at the UN Security Council, which is symbolic of the gradual power shift at the global scale. Power shift which Iran one way or another is destined to benefit from, even if it doesn't entail any major arms transfers from Russia or China.

Patriotic Iranians are similarly enjoying the fact that all bilateral economic transactions in the world are no longer being carried out in US dollars, as exemplified by China's and Russia's decision to trade in local currencies.

Some seem to give credit to the notion that the US regime is potentially interested in or willing to concede enough to reach a balanced deal in any negotiation with Iran... It is not.

Simply put, had the Rohani gang given up any less than it did with the JCPOA, no accord could have been reached with Washington. Also, it's not as if proponents of engagement with Iran among the US ruling mafia would have been satisfied with the sole nuclear JCPOA: JCPOA's II (on ballistic missiles) and III (on Iran's relations with her allies), in other terms Iran's self-induced capitulation, had formed part and parcel of their long term plan from the very first day.

Any suggestion that a fair deal is even possible or imaginable with the US regime, and that it's just the IR which was too "dumb" to go for it, is entirely baseless.

Truth, once again, is that the zionist- / bankster- / corporate mafia- and masonic-controlled US regime is seeking to destroy and to balkanize Iran, no more no less, and nothing short of the downfall of this criminal ruling oligarchy is going to alter this reality. Until then, the duty of Iranian Muslims and patriots (hopefully joined by increasing numbers of allies, God willing) is clear: to resist, resist and resist even more, thereby driving their enemies madder and madder and making them more and more desperate.

Now for the US to reach their goal, they absolutely need Iranian fifth columnist liberals to either remain in power, or to possess sufficient amounts of political clout in order to effectively dictate policy orientations or impose red lines on the Supreme Leader and the IRGC. For if the zio-Americans ever harbored the slightest delusion that Iran and the IR (whose fates are henceforth unseparably intertwined) are going to crumble under the weight of aggression originating from outside - namely endless sanctions, psy-ops, terror attacks and sabotage operations, they should brace themselves for yet another huge disappointment (and this is where the marginal, occasional little act of cooperation from Iran's close allies from the Resistance Axis and then from the likes of Moscow and Beijing in whatever form as well as from minor partners, is going to come in pretty handy).

So the decisive factor is not the strength of the US regime which is globally dwindling to boot, but it is and will be the domestic distribution of power inside Iran, and in particular the question of how much influence in-house liberals within the IR establishment (fifth columnists) will be wielding. They, not terrorist or separatist groups nor the US regime's military muscle, is what Iranians out to be more wary of.

Now this danger needs to be addressed in a shrewd, cautious and thought out manner by the revolutionary, patriotic, sovereignist and anti-imperialist core of the IR. Zio-Americans and their Euro-minions for their part, are going to do all within their power to prop up Iranian liberals, as they absolutely need those liberals to prepare the ground and open the gates from within, so that their ghastly executioner-henchmen would be enabled to step in and set Iran on fire.

However, Seyyed Khamenei begs to differ. His policy of strategic patience was never meant to placate the Americans at all, nor was it motivated by any fear of a confrontation: the sole purpose and meaning of the strategic patience policy is to sideline Iranian liberals and ensure that they will stay away from key institutional decision making centers for the upcoming eight years (and that this will eventually lead to a complete, irreversible uprooting of their levers of power).

Years during which not only no negotiation will take place with the US regime, no matter who will be in charge in D.C. - other than purely tactical, symbolic talks with no underlying intention on Iran's part to concede anything; but moreover, Iran's nuclear program is going to find to and even surpass its past extent and glory - not as a potential "bargaining chip" for "future negotiations" but purely in order to be exploited to the benefit of the Iranian people for decades and centuries to come (incidentally, making zionists of all shades shake in their boots).

Observers who paint gloomy pictures and portray everything about Iran as being doomed to fail, will be proven wrong by history. Much like the never ending cohort of oppositionists on the one hand and defeatists on the other, whose apocalyptic prognoses have kept being proven wrong one by one for the past 40 plus years.
 

zhxy

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Nope ... their SMIC is already under a massive sanctions threat. The US could ban SMIC immediately if they sell arms to Iran.
Trade is a double-edged sword. It makes China rich, but it also makes China dependent on America. Russia and North Korea are another case. Russia does not suffer much from economic sanctions, and North Korea is not interested.
 

zectech

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Russians will chicken out but the biggest question here : Will China defy the US ?
China has much more to lose than Russia. China is going to save this as a bargaining chip. So no reason for Iran to leave the JCPOA yet. Wait a couple of years.
 

TheImmortal

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Trade is a double-edged sword. It makes China rich, but it also makes China dependent on America. Russia and North Korea are another case. Russia does not suffer much from economic sanctions, and North Korea is not interested.
Your idea of a successful country is North Korea where there have been mass famines since the 1980’s resulting in millions of deaths? The one whose population is boiling grass to survive?

The North Korea that relies on China to stay on life support?

I see you spreading some crazy propaganda on this forum.

And China is transitioning from an export economy to consumer spending economy. Which is a natural progression that every advanced economy has gone through from birth to maturity.
 

aryobarzan

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No well informed person would claim Russia or China will work wonders. At the same time, every Iranian patriot enjoyed America's unprecedented diplomatic humiliation at the UN Security Council, which is symbolic of the gradual power shift at the global scale. Power shift which Iran one way or another is destined to benefit from, even if it doesn't entail any major arms transfers from Russia or China.

Patriotic Iranians are similarly enjoying the fact that all bilateral economic transactions in the world are no longer being carried out in US dollars, as exemplified by China's and Russia's decision to trade in local currencies.

Some seem to give credit to the notion that the US regime is potentially interested in or willing to concede enough to reach a balanced deal in any negotiation with Iran... It is not.

Simply put, had the Rohani gang given up any less than it did with the JCPOA, no accord could have been reached with Washington. Also, it's not as if proponents of engagement with Iran among the US ruling mafia would have been satisfied with the sole nuclear JCPOA: JCPOA's II (on ballistic missiles) and III (on Iran's relations with her allies), in other terms Iran's self-induced capitulation, had formed part and parcel of their long term plan from the very first day.

Any suggestion that a fair deal is even possible or imaginable with the US regime, and that it's just the IR which was too "dumb" to go for it, is entirely baseless.

Truth, once again, is that the zionist- / bankster- / corporate mafia- and masonic-controlled US regime is seeking to destroy and to balkanize Iran, no more no less, and nothing short of the downfall of this criminal ruling oligarchy is going to alter this reality. Until then, the duty of Iranian Muslims and patriots (hopefully joined by increasing numbers of allies, God willing) is clear: to resist, resist and resist even more, thereby driving their enemies madder and madder and making them more and more desperate.

Now for the US to reach their goal, they absolutely need Iranian fifth columnist liberals to either remain in power, or to possess sufficient amounts of political clout in order to effectively dictate policy orientations or impose red lines on the Supreme Leader and the IRGC. For if the zio-Americans ever harbored the slightest delusion that Iran and the IR (whose fates are henceforth unseparably intertwined) are going to crumble under the weight of aggression originating from outside - namely endless sanctions, psy-ops, terror attacks and sabotage operations, they should brace themselves for yet another huge disappointment (and this is where the marginal, occasional little act of cooperation from Iran's close allies from the Resistance Axis and then from the likes of Moscow and Beijing in whatever form as well as from minor partners, is going to come in pretty handy).

So the decisive factor is not the strength of the US regime which is globally dwindling to boot, but it is and will be the domestic distribution of power inside Iran, and in particular the question of how much influence in-house liberals within the IR establishment (fifth columnists) will be wielding. They, not terrorist or separatist groups nor the US regime's military muscle, is what Iranians out to be more wary of.

Now this danger needs to be addressed in a shrewd, cautious and thought out manner by the revolutionary, patriotic, sovereignist and anti-imperialist core of the IR. Zio-Americans and their Euro-minions for their part, are going to do all within their power to prop up Iranian liberals, as they absolutely need those liberals to prepare the ground and open the gates from within, so that their ghastly executioner-henchmen would be enabled to step in and set Iran on fire.

However, Seyyed Khamenei begs to differ. His policy of strategic patience was never meant to placate the Americans at all, nor was it motivated by any fear of a confrontation: the sole purpose and meaning of the strategic patience policy is to sideline Iranian liberals and ensure that they will stay away from key institutional decision making centers for the upcoming eight years (and that this will eventually lead to a complete, irreversible uprooting of their levers of power).

Years during which not only no negotiation will take place with the US regime, no matter who will be in charge in D.C. - other than purely tactical, symbolic talks with no underlying intention on Iran's part to concede anything; but moreover, Iran's nuclear program is going to find to and even surpass its past extent and glory - not as a potential "bargaining chip" for "future negotiations" but purely in order to be exploited to the benefit of the Iranian people for decades and centuries to come (incidentally, making zionists of all shades shake in their boots).

Observers who paint gloomy pictures and portray everything about Iran as being doomed to fail, will be proven wrong by history. Much like the never ending cohort of oppositionists on the one hand and defeatists on the other, whose apocalyptic prognoses have kept being proven wrong one by one for the past 40 plus years.
Great analysis....I would like to know in your view as to what is irans end game in the nuclear domaine....I agree that nuclear has always been the excuse and the enemy is after a bigger objectives in iran ...if the destruction of iran is the ultimate goal then why iran is playing in their field .
 
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SalarHaqq

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Great analysis....I would like to know in your view as to what is irans end game in the nuclear domaine....I agree that nuclear has always been the excuse and the enemy is after a bigger objectives in iran ...if the destruction of iran is the ultimate goal then why iran is playing in their field .
Glad you enjoyed. As for your question, pardon me for not being entirely certain to have grasped what you meant. If by playing in their field you mean to ask why Iran has even engaged in any sort of negotiation on its nuclear program in the first place, then I believe my previous comment implicitly contained the response already: although the nuclear issue in itself isn't the enemy's final goal, they can still use it as a pretext to pose economic and other challenges to Iran (via sanctions etc), hence Iran must neutralize these challenges.

Now as concerns the principle of nuclear negotiations per se, and considering that the opposite side has managed to convince various actors with their baseless accusations against Iran, or provided other players as dishonest as themselves with a hollow pretext to brandish against Iran, revolutionary and patriotic elements of the IR needed to unmask the true intentions of the west both with domestic and international audiences, in order to be able to reject demands and pressures (both internal and external ones) for renewed negotiations.

I believe in the coming years, the way forward will be severalfold (since the nuclear issue is unseparable from a variety of external and domestic factors):

1) No more negotiations. At most, Iran might enter some formal rounds of negotiations simply for the sake of pretending to be interested in a compromise, but no deal shall be reached i. e. no meaningful concessions shall be made.

2) Build a resistance economy relying on domestic resources, while external trade will transit on the black market or use official channels where possible, specially with geopolitical rivals of the US and emerging powers (from Russia and China to Venezuela and Cuba, plus countries like South Africa, some East Asian nations etc) in addition to Iran's own neighbours (in effect it will be extremely difficult for the US to control covert means of cross-border trade, where currency and goods can be carried by columns of simple individuals etc). Settle for bilateral trade in local currencies or barter trade.

3) Further move away from oil dependence. In particular, this will be achieved through the introduction of a comprehensive and working system of tax collection.

4) Re-expand the welfare state and social handouts to the economically vulnerable segments of the population, following the Rohani administration's shameful cutbacks. This will dampen and ultimately neutralize risks of domestic instability stemming from the economic impact of sanctions.

5) Mercilessly but intelligently root out the prevailing economic and financial corruption among certain elites. It will be an arduous long term process, which has been kickstarted by hajj Raisi. Promote popular support and participation in this effort, advertize it massively in the media.

6) Strike hard at subversive domestic elements, from western-apologetic and globalist liberals to ethno-separatists, British turbans (Shirazi clan, Hojjatieh akhbaris) and salafo-taymiyist takfiris, Haifan Baha'i underground networks, covert agents of international freemasonry, MKO and shahi agents etc.

Here, combined efforts on the operational (police and intelligence) and informational (soft and cultural war) levels, as well as a measure of positive social engineering will be key. For example, in the battle against the ethno-separatist subversion, encourage mixed mariages between members of different linguistic groups of Iran, promote internal economic migration between Iranian provinces; through modern media campaigns, advertisements, feature films, documentaries, video games, strongly highlight the fact that in reality over 50% of Iranians are of mixed linguistic backgrounds and that therefore, Iranian citizens cannot be separated and crammed into narrow "ethnic" categories. In parallel, crack down on ethno-separatist elements, wherever they might spread their poison, from Trazktor-Sazi hooligans to members of Majles, NGO workers, militants and journalists.

As another example, in the resistance against globalist ideology, double down on public and private education efforts focusing on the virtues of Iranian history, religion, culture, civilization and identity (including when compared to western and global decadence).

7) Shills, saboteurs and agents of influence (nofoozis) associated with the aforementioned currents and organizations, whom infiltrated the state apparatus of the IR must be rooted out progressively. Likewise, spies recruited from amongst the 'khodis' with no previous contrarian affiliation must be identified and neutralized.

8) After the Rohani administration reduced budgets and even shut down some of Iran's foreign-language public broadcasters, reinvigorate and expand those services.

9) Encourage natality through adequate monetary and other types of incentives for families with more than two children, in order to avert the existentially threatening demographic catastrophe that is looming on the horizon. In this manner, Saudi efforts to socially engineer a sudden upwards trend in the relative size of taymiyist takfiri communities in Iran will be foiled as well.

Decisively counter the enemy's efforts to uproot the traditional nuclear family and to spread sexual perversions.

Hammer the illegal abortion mafia, as well as other criminals in the medical professions who harbor globalist persuasions and wish to open up Iran to Big Pharma.

10) Explain to people who might not adhere to the IR's official ideology (including agnostics and atheists), but who still believe in the necessity to implement natural law for a society to thrive and function properly, that the IR remains the best option at their disposal (specially when considering the rival western-led model).

11) Last but by far not least, set up a national internet system, completely disconnecting the bulk of Iranians from "social media" and other anti-Iranian websites controlled by global oligarchs or anti-IR oppositionists, as well as from the oceans of perversion and sickness the internet is largely composed of.

Evidently, there will be huge hurdles along the way and the enemy (whether foreign or domestic) will not sit still and allow this type of a program to be carried out without trying everything in its power to prevent it. However I do believe these policies, if conducted with success, will shield Iran from the major threats she's faced with.
 
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