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Trump administration to end Iran deal waivers in a blow to Obama-era pact

raptor22

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Trump administration to end Iran deal waivers in a blow to Obama-era pact


The Trump administration is ending sanctions waivers that allow Russian, Chinese and European companies to do work at sensitive Iranian nuclear sites, following an internal battle between Iran hawks and a more aggressive group of hard-liners inside the U.S. government, according to U.S. officials and documents obtained by The Washington Post.

Nonproliferation experts say the waivers, issued after President Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, reduce Tehran’s incentive to enrich uranium at higher levels and provide a valuable window into the country’s atomic program. But Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and a group of lawmakers led by Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas pushed to exert even more pressure on Tehran and eliminate the vestiges of the Obama administration’s signature foreign policy objective.

Pompeo will “end the sanctions waiver covering JCPOA-related nuclear projects in Iran,” said an internal State Department memo, using an acronym for the Iran deal.

The Trump administration is ending sanctions waivers that allow Russian, Chinese and European companies to do work at sensitive Iranian nuclear sites, following an internal battle between Iran hawks and a more aggressive group of hard-liners inside the U.S. government, according to U.S. officials and documents obtained by The Washington Post.

Nonproliferation experts say the waivers, issued after President Trump withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, reduce Tehran’s incentive to enrich uranium at higher levels and provide a valuable window into the country’s atomic program. But Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and a group of lawmakers led by Republican Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas pushed to exert even more pressure on Tehran and eliminate the vestiges of the Obama administration’s signature foreign policy objective.

Pompeo will “end the sanctions waiver covering JCPOA-related nuclear projects in Iran,” said an internal State Department memo, using an acronym for the Iran deal.
“Ending waivers that allow Tehran to import fuel for the reactor hands Iran a justification to resume enriching uranium to 20 percent, a level that is below weapons grade, but poses a more significant proliferation risk than Iran’s current enrichment of less than 5 percent,” said Kelsey Davenport, director of Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association.

“The Trump administration is shooting itself in the foot with this move,” she said.

The nuclear deal also required modifications to the Arak reactor to block Iran’s pathway to nuclear weapons using plutonium. Companies involved in that modification effort will no longer be protected by the sanctions waiver.

“Iran could react to this by saying they’ll restart construction on the old design, which would be very much counter to our interests,” said Richard Nephew, a former State Department official who worked on the deal.

Trump administration officials believe such a move would take years and require money and expertise that Iran doesn’t currently have, said people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a hypothetical. They also believe Iran would be taking a significant risk if it went down that path.

Treasury and State Department officials declined to comment.

Pompeo fought to end the waivers in March but lost an interagency dispute to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who argued that the Trump administration was already under fire for its sanctions on Iran amid the burgeoning coronavirus outbreak. That resulted in the extension of the waivers for another 60 days.

This week’s decision to preserve the waiver for the Bushehr plant for 90 days sets up a final waiver battle inside the Tromp administration as the presidential election campaign heats up.

“The next decision point is at the start of the post-convention presidential election push,” said Jarrett Blanc, a former State Department official who was in charge of Iran deal implementation. “That greatly raises the chances of Pompeo staking out the most hawkish position possible.”
 

Sineva

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Awesome!!:yahoo:
Lets see how the us feels when the arak reactor,now rebuilt to its original specifications of course,produces its first load of plutonium.Now its probably only going to be enough for around perhaps 2 bombs per year,but hey....you`ve got to start somewhere.......

This is the sort of thing that happens when you have a political system that allows someone who is essentially a low level street thug in an expensive tailored suit with no political ability of any kind whatsoever to become president,someone who is so stupid that he is not only willing to cut off his own nose to spite his face,but is even willing to go so far as to cut off his own head to spite his face.
Donald Trump,americas great political experiment in :usflag::help:governance through non-governance:help::usflag:
 

Kastor

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Awesome!!:yahoo:
Lets see how the us feels when the arak reactor,now rebuilt to its original specifications of course,produces its first load of plutonium.Now its probably only going to be enough for around perhaps 2 bombs per year,but hey....you`ve got to start somewhere.......

This is the sort of thing that happens when you have a political system that allows someone who is essentially a low level street thug in an expensive tailored suit with no political ability of any kind whatsoever to become president,someone who is so stupid that he is not only willing to cut off his own nose to spite his face,but is even willing to go so far as to cut off his own head to spite his face.
Donald Trump,americas great political experiment in :usflag::help:governance through non-governance:help::usflag:
You give the orange ape way too much credit....this is all coming from AIPAC and Kushner, Pompeo is a servant boy to those two. Trump is not able to tell the difference between Iran and Iraq, he's clueless. This is all coming from Israeli backed puppetmasters.
 
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TheImmortal

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Awesome!!:yahoo:
Lets see how the us feels when the arak reactor,now rebuilt to its original specifications of course,produces its first load of plutonium.Now its probably only going to be enough for around perhaps 2 bombs per year,but hey....you`ve got to start somewhere.......

This is the sort of thing that happens when you have a political system that allows someone who is essentially a low level street thug in an expensive tailored suit with no political ability of any kind whatsoever to become president,someone who is so stupid that he is not only willing to cut off his own nose to spite his face,but is even willing to go so far as to cut off his own head to spite his face.
Donald Trump,americas great political experiment in :usflag::help:governance through non-governance:help::usflag:
Iran won’t rebuild Arak. This was US plan all along and you can thank US spy and village idiot Saleh for this bonehead move.

“Trump administration officials believe such a move would take years and require money and expertise that Iran doesn’t currently have, said people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a hypothetical. They also believe Iran would be taking a significant risk if it went down that path.”

Just goes to show you the whole deal was a farce to make Iran renegotiate a new one with leverage in place to permanently slow down Iran’s plutonium path.

The reactor without foreign assistance is stalled and useless. The old design will take way to long to implement and commission.

Arrest Salehi for treason against the state.
 

QWECXZ

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Iran won’t rebuild Arak. This was US plan all along and you can thank US spy and village idiot Saleh for this bonehead move.

“Trump administration officials believe such a move would take years and require money and expertise that Iran doesn’t currently have, said people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a hypothetical. They also believe Iran would be taking a significant risk if it went down that path.”

Just goes to show you the whole deal was a farce to make Iran renegotiate a new one with leverage in place to permanently slow down Iran’s plutonium path.

The reactor without foreign assistance is stalled and useless. The old design will take way to long to implement and commission.

Arrest Salehi for treason against the state.
Exactly. If Iran decides to rebuild the Arak reactor, at the most optimistic scenario it will take 2 years. But we all know that Iran's construction plans never go as planned. So, let's say 3 to 5 years.

Meanwhile, the US and the EU will exert full pressure on Iran because of the proliferation risks that the original design of the IR-40 reactor has. It produced about 10 kilograms of plutonium. Besides, Iran's HALEU reserves will end soon and we will need to start enriching uranium to keep the Tehran reactor running. So, in the best case scenario, assuming that the US fails to trigger the snapback mechanism legally, we will give the Europeans the excuse to trigger it sooner or later. So, the UN arms embargo won't be lifted for long really and even if lifted, it will become useless because no country will be able to deliver our orders in that short time.
 

Blue In Green

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Exactly. If Iran decides to rebuild the Arak reactor, at the most optimistic scenario it will take 2 years. But we all know that Iran's construction plans never go as planned. So, let's say 3 to 5 years.

Meanwhile, the US and the EU will exert full pressure on Iran because of the proliferation risks that the original design of the IR-40 reactor has. It produced about 10 kilograms of plutonium. Besides, Iran's HALEU reserves will end soon and we will need to start enriching uranium to keep the Tehran reactor running. So, in the best case scenario, assuming that the US fails to trigger the snapback mechanism legally, we will give the Europeans the excuse to trigger it sooner or later. So, the UN arms embargo won't be lifted for long really and even if lifted, it will become useless because no country will be able to deliver our orders in that short time.
Just how badly handicapped did Iran's nuclear infrastructure become post-JCPOA?

How many facilities are running right now, what is Iran producing in terms of energy output, how small is the Nuclear footprint now as apposed to before?
 

Sineva

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Iran won’t rebuild Arak. This was US plan all along and you can thank US spy and village idiot Saleh for this bonehead move.

“Trump administration officials believe such a move would take years and require money and expertise that Iran doesn’t currently have, said people familiar with the situation who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a hypothetical. They also believe Iran would be taking a significant risk if it went down that path.”

Just goes to show you the whole deal was a farce to make Iran renegotiate a new one with leverage in place to permanently slow down Iran’s plutonium path.

The reactor without foreign assistance is stalled and useless. The old design will take way to long to implement and commission.

Arrest Salehi for treason against the state.
If rouhanis regime had no intention of returning the reactor to its original non enriched design then why did salehi publicly state that iran had imported enough components to build a second calandria?
Also with the experience gained in constructing the first calandria the second one should be finished far more quickly than the several years that it took for the original.
Ultimately tho with the limited time remaining to the rouhani regime I think that decision will be up to rouhanis presidential successor to make and frankly I cannot see them either halting construction or implementing the redesign under the likely circumstances.
I do however agree that rouhani and his clique of appeasers were complete idiots to ever trust the west and were especially foolish to agree to destroy the original calandria before the new one had been designed,built and installed.
In the end tho this is a truly massive blunder by the chump regime as it clearly reopens irans path to the plutonium route to the bomb........and thats a good thing.
 

QWECXZ

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Just how badly handicapped did Iran's nuclear infrastructure become post-JCPOA?

How many facilities are running right now, what is Iran producing in terms of energy output, how small is the Nuclear footprint now as apposed to before?
I don't think handicapped is a good choice of word because it's not like Iran has lost the ability to return to where it was before the JCPOA, but the JCPOA successfully set back Iran's nuclear program by 10 to 15 years.

Iran had about 13,000 kilograms of enriched uranium, including hundreds of kilograms of HALEU. Now the Iranian authorities claim that we have about 1,200 kilograms of LEU (almost 10% of pre-JCPOA) but the IAEA says Iran has 360 kilograms of LEU. Obviously, the IAEA report is correct. The Arak reactor was almost finished and its inauguration was only a matter of political will at that point. Now the reactor has to be constructed from scratch (well, at least the building is still there). If there's a political willingness, Iran will be able to go back to the pre-JCPOA conditions in 2 - 4 years more or less; but all sanctions will be reimposed on Iran which makes the JCPOA a complete loss of capital and time for Iran. Also, we will need to look for new uranium reserves and mines to speed up our uranium enrichment. Otherwise it can take even more time.
 

Blue In Green

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I don't think handicapped is a good choice of word because it's not like Iran has lost the ability to return to where it was before the JCPOA, but the JCPOA successfully set back Iran's nuclear program by 10 to 15 years.

Iran had about 13,000 kilograms of enriched uranium, including hundreds of kilograms of HALEU. Now the Iranian authorities claim that we have about 1,200 kilograms of LEU (almost 10% of pre-JCPOA) but the IAEA says Iran has 360 kilograms of LEU. Obviously, the IAEA report is correct. The Arak reactor was almost finished and its inauguration was only a matter of political will at that point. Now the reactor has to be constructed from scratch (well, at least the building is still there). If there's a political willingness, Iran will be able to go back to the pre-JCPOA conditions in 2 - 4 years more or less; but all sanctions will be reimposed on Iran which makes the JCPOA a complete loss of capital and time for Iran. Also, we will need to look for new uranium reserves and mines to speed up our uranium enrichment. Otherwise it can take even more time.
10 to 15 years!?!

Mission accomplished then (Israel has nothing to worry about)...wtf were they thinking signing off on such a deal?

I swear Iran has an endemic knack for shooting itself in the foot time-and-time again. Well, at the time of signing I assume Rouhani and Co. that it wise to enter such an arrangement as they couldn't have really predicated that Trump would have gotten elected, so I don't think the fault entirely lies on them for giving away so much for next to nothing in return.

Here's to hoping future Iranian presidents wont leverage their entire presidency on a single issue...

I don't think handicapped is a good choice of word because it's not like Iran has lost the ability to return to where it was before the JCPOA, but the JCPOA successfully set back Iran's nuclear program by 10 to 15 years.

Iran had about 13,000 kilograms of enriched uranium, including hundreds of kilograms of HALEU. Now the Iranian authorities claim that we have about 1,200 kilograms of LEU (almost 10% of pre-JCPOA) but the IAEA says Iran has 360 kilograms of LEU. Obviously, the IAEA report is correct. The Arak reactor was almost finished and its inauguration was only a matter of political will at that point. Now the reactor has to be constructed from scratch (well, at least the building is still there). If there's a political willingness, Iran will be able to go back to the pre-JCPOA conditions in 2 - 4 years more or less; but all sanctions will be reimposed on Iran which makes the JCPOA a complete loss of capital and time for Iran. Also, we will need to look for new uranium reserves and mines to speed up our uranium enrichment. Otherwise it can take even more time.
I just...Zionist America and Israel hampered Iran's just nuclear energy production infrastructure without firing a single shot. Omg, wtf?

10-15 Fucking years.....FIFTEEN?!?! I'll be a middle aged man by then!!
 

raptor22

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The desirable scenario & ultimatum goal of current administration & its puppet masters is reimposing the UNSC's sanctions fully besides destruction of JCPoA before incoming presidential election in Nov (as they may not be reelected, even bibi wanna annex Palestine's land before it) .. all these policies & actions are made to push Iran to make an impulsive decision including this one or arm embargo, the point is whether Trump wins or Biden both are gonna use the sanctions as leverage in any possible future talks ..
I have no idea what is in the mind of our leaders & what they are gonna do I guess they're waiting out for trump administration but we're loosing time & in case of negotiation we need leverage too.

10 to 15 years!?!

Mission accomplished then (Israel has nothing to worry about)...wtf were they thinking signing off on such a deal?

I swear Iran has an endemic knack for shooting itself in the foot time-and-time again. Well, at the time of signing I assume Rouhani and Co. that it wise to enter such an arrangement as they couldn't have really predicated that Trump would have gotten elected, so I don't think the fault entirely lies on them for giving away so much for next to nothing in return.

Here's to hoping future Iranian presidents wont leverage their entire presidency on a single issue...
No I think it depends on your objectives my guess is 2 years just regarding Arak the rest has no problem ..even Arak could be shorten than this.
 

Blue In Green

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The desirable scenario & ultimatum goal of current administration & its puppet masters is reimposing the UNSC's sanctions fully besides destruction of JCPoA before incoming presidential election in Nov (as they may not be reelected, even bibi wanna annex Palestine's land before it) .. all these policies & actions are made to push Iran to make an impulsive decision including this one or arm embargo, the point is whether Trump wins or Biden both are gonna use the sanctions as leverage in any possible future talks ..
I have no idea what is in the mind of our leaders & what they are gonna do I guess they're waiting out for trump administration but we're loosing time & in case of negotiation we need leverage too.


No I think it depends on your objectives my guess is 2 years just regarding Arak the rest has no problem ..even Arak could be shorten than this.
Well I don't know really what to say honestly. The JCPOA/Trump's election was such an epic oversight that screwed over Iran it's sort of hard to walk away from this situation with your head held high knowing what has gone down ever since that Orange idiot stepped into Office.

If Iran can really bring Arak back to pre-JCPOA specifications within two years or less, weathering all the sanctions and deeming such a course of action as worth it, then godspeed.
 

QWECXZ

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10 to 15 years!?!

Mission accomplished then (Israel has nothing to worry about)...wtf were they thinking signing off on such a deal?

I swear Iran has an endemic knack for shooting itself in the foot time-and-time again. Well, at the time of signing I assume Rouhani and Co. that it wise to enter such an arrangement as they couldn't have really predicated that Trump would have gotten elected, so I don't think the fault entirely lies on them for giving away so much for next to nothing in return.

Here's to hoping future Iranian presidents wont leverage their entire presidency on a single issue...

I just...Zionist America and Israel hampered Iran's just nuclear energy production infrastructure without firing a single shot. Omg, wtf?

10-15 Fucking years.....FIFTEEN?!?! I'll be a middle aged man by then!!
Yes. But when I say 10 to 15 years, I am considering where we were in 2012-2013. Realistically, Iran will make no move before the UN arms embargo ends in September. Even after that, Iran will have to stay in the JCPOA for its orders to be delivered if it really wants to import weapons from foreign countries.

Even more realistically, as long as the Rouhani administration controls the Iranian nuclear program, there will be no major moves by Iran. Rouhani will leave the office in July 2021. The new government will spend the first two months choosing a cabinet and replacing people from the Rouhani administration. We will need to filter all people that are suspected to be spies. So, our nuclear program will have a fresh start from 2022.

Now there will be two options: 1- leave the NPT completely, 2- stay in the NPT but pull out of the JCPOA. In the first case scenario, Iran will need at least 7 months up to a year to have enough uranium enriched for just one nuclear bomb. Add to this the 3 month notice that Iran is obliged to give before leaving the NPT. In the second scenario, if Iran follows the IAEA regulations under the NPT, without following the additional protocol, Iran will need at least 2 years to reach where it was in 2013.

That assumes that Iran will have enough uranium and yellow cake for enrichment without interruption and it assumes that there will be no sabotage operations. Let's not forget that implementing the additional protocol of the NPT has given the US tremendous information about our nuclear program and our nuclear scientists. So, realistically, we will be where we were in 2013 by 2024.

I really hope the IRGC has a covert nuclear program of its own that we don't know of.

Well I don't know really what to say honestly. The JCPOA/Trump's election was such an epic oversight that screwed over Iran it's sort of hard to walk away from this situation with your head held high knowing what has gone down ever since that Orange idiot stepped into Office.

If Iran can really bring Arak back to pre-JCPOA specifications within two years or less, weathering all the sanctions and deeming such a course of action as worth it, then godspeed.
Even the Obama administration wasn't completely faithful to the JCPOA. Obama sanctioned Iranian persons even after the JCPOA. It canceled the visa waiver program for people who have traveled to Iran in the last 5 years, hitting the Iranian tourism industry that was blooming after the JCPOA.

We must accept that the whole deal was a trap. And I smell treason. It has been confirmed officially that there was at least one nuclear spy in the Iranian team during the nuclear deal talks.

Meanwhile, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are building nuclear reactors and soon they will be operating them with minimal IAEA supervision. They also have access to the market without sanctions.
 

Blue In Green

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Yes. But when I say 10 to 15 years, I am considering where we were in 2012-2013. Realistically, Iran will make no move before the UN arms embargo ends in September. Even after that, Iran will have to stay in the JCPOA for its orders to be delivered if it really wants to import weapons from foreign countries.

Even more realistically, as long as the Rouhani administration controls the Iranian nuclear program, there will be no major moves by Iran. Rouhani will leave the office in July 2021. The new government will spend the first two months choosing a cabinet and replacing people from the Rouhani administration. We will need to filter all people that are suspected to be spies. So, our nuclear program will have a fresh start from 2022.

Now there will be two options: 1- leave the NPT completely, 2- stay in the NPT but pull out of the JCPOA. In the first case scenario, Iran will need at least 7 months up to a year to have enough uranium enriched for just one nuclear bomb. Add to this the 3 month notice that Iran is obliged to give before leaving the NPT. In the second scenario, if Iran follows the IAEA regulations under the NPT, without following the additional protocol, Iran will need at least 2 years to reach where it was in 2013.

That assumes that Iran will have enough uranium and yellow cake for enrichment without interruption and it assumes that there will be no sabotage operations. Let's not forget that implementing the additional protocol of the NPT has given the US tremendous information about our nuclear program and our nuclear scientists. So, realistically, we will be where we were in 2013 by 2024.

I really hope the IRGC has a covert nuclear program of its own that we don't know of.


Even the Obama administration wasn't completely faithful to the JCPOA. Obama sanctioned Iranian persons even after the JCPOA. It canceled the visa waiver program for people who have traveled to Iran in the last 5 years, hitting the Iranian tourism industry that was blooming after the JCPOA.

We must accept that the whole deal was a trap. And I smell treason. It has been confirmed officially that there was at least one nuclear spy in the Iranian team during the nuclear deal talks.

Meanwhile, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are building nuclear reactors and soon they will be operating them with minimal IAEA supervision. They also have access to the market without sanctions.
What a mess....

Thank you though for thoroughly expanded on your original thought. I understand now what it is your saying although it doesn't bring me much joy knowing this given all that it entails.
 

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