What's new

TotalWar on Pakistan: Understanding all Vectors of Destruction

Mangus Ortus Novem

SENIOR MEMBER
Jun 7, 2008
2,997
186
32,237
Country
Netherlands
Location
Pakistan
War is the most horrible, darkest of human expression.

War is Stupid.
Only stupid want war.


The Idea of this thread is both an exposition of the nature and consequences of war... and... developing an understanding of dealing with it.
Of course, it is not intended as a Critique of HumanCondition.
It is about Framing the TotalWar in Pakistan's context.

Turning 75 this year. Pakistan is.
25 more years to go. 100!!!
What is Our GrandPlan? Any?
Milestones?
Roadmap?


A long journey it is going to be... beset with huge challenges of correcting the course of the PakState .. in governance and economy.. and most importantly improving the CollectiveLife of all Paks. Education, education, education.. and some more.

Our biggest challenge is going to be shaping the PakNational Character from present Escapismo to that of Inquiry, ScientificMethod and its Application ... and again.. education, education... education. @Reddington

PakState has made public its current thinking in the form of Pak National Security Policy. It is a good start. But it is that.. a start.
Of course, it needs to go through a lot of iterations to have clarity in goals and a Plan to achieve them.
In its current form it is more like an agenda item for discussion than an End Product.

Regardless, this the nature of such documents... and certainly in the case of a country like Pakistan... it is a good start.
It is instructive to read and reflect on the excellent critique of this NSP done by Gen. (rtd) Trariq Khan.
A brilliant analysis and clarity of questions is refreshing... giving impetus to hope that there are a lot of PakBrains which are active and alive to both National and International challenges and can frame their thinking to PakPositive outcomes. One tends to believe that there are more 'end-products' like the esteemed Gen. Khan coming out of our instituitions.

On to TotalWar then....

TotalWar on Pakistan:

The purpose of any conflict is to impose one's will on the other party. Be it tribal or national effort.
Subduing the enemy and imposing one's will is the Only Outcome that matters. If it is not achieved then the 'Cost n Benefit' Ratio of Conflict remains unbalanced... prolonging the it further... costing more.. time, material and lives. More so for the Weaker side.

It is the Cost-Benefit Analysis which is the foundation of actions, semi-actions or non-actions by the SaneStates.
Absence of such Extreme Rationality, states, like peopel, are prone to make massive errors and pay the price for it.

Paks need to understand, especially YoungPaks, that Pakistan, as InheritorState, is in Recovery and requires time still to become a Great Regional Power.
Our Decline started some two plus centuries ago.

And when Decline sets in... it follows its course. It does extract its pounds of Flesh. We should know.. we are still paying in PakBlood and so are PakKashmiris. Long road to Freedom.

It is also imperative to understand that Pakistan at 75 has taken a very long time to be here... being a Weaker and Smaller State than the Enemy and its Friends/Backers... we had to join alliances out of Weakness and need to Survive!
Easy it is for some to criticise on internet about Pak's Choices of the Past and Present... but all those choices have been Choices of Survival. @peagle

Hindsight is a privilge for commentators and critics... but decisions are made in the moments if there is No Long Term Plan of a State. It is what it is ... and this Fact doesn't bother about Morality or Honesty or Ethics.
Neither does it care for lamentations.

The Ugly Truth is that we are a Defeated Order in the Subcontinent and Pakistan is a Miracle to behold...

The Very Creation of Pakistan was the First Step in OurRecovery.
Having a State of our own has enabled us to protect OurTehzeeb and OurIdentity.
Yes, we have a lot of demons in our garden or front yard... but we are a State nevertheless... just have a look at the 'Indian' muslims. Nothing further to add here.

We need to visit and revisit, again and again, the Original, Natural... purposed Map of Pakistan.
And when the Meaning sets in .. it becomes abandently clear that why the British could not allow for such a State to come into being.

Please, YoungPaks, do remember that Quaid e Azam R.A. was against the devisions of Bengal and Punjab on the basis of religion..but the Congress of the good Indians wanted it.
They needed MassGenocide as first step their Recovery. Without the blood of million plus muslims their Order couldn't begin... and it was War.

The TotalWar for the Creation of Pakistan
costed Million+ Pak lives ... but the Benefit is Pakistan at 75... giving us OurLand so that we can have The Privilge to criticise Pakistan and PakState...because it is Ours!!!

From our Day 1 till today we are under attack.
Our existence is a threat to the IndianOrder simply because we represent and inherit the Old Order of 1000yrs.

The HybridWar on Pakistan
is not new.. it started even before Pakistan came into being @N.Siddiqui @Ace of Spades @M. Sarmad the Cleansing of Muslims from Jammu to Utrakand is yesterdays news.
So this Non-Kinetic Indian Doctorine is not a new thing @PanzerKiel @Signalian @HRK
Even now there is a thread on 10 PakArmy men killed by the Indians via their terrorist pets.
This is just daily addition to 80k PakLives and more billions to the incurring Costs for the PakState i.e Paks who pay for it. APS.

The day Paks or PakState forgets to repay the Debt of APS
... will be day Pakistan has accepted the IndianOrder.

And let us abuse any naivete here... even if Pakistan accepts the IndianOrder like BD it is not going to be enough. Rather it would be an inducement for the good Indians to impose their will more harshpy.
And frankly, why not? Isn't it the purpose of Vicotry?

Till today Pakistan has fought and won all Battles against the IndianOrder in the ArmedConflict Vector.
71 was a fluke and result of insanity and vulgarities of Pak politicos and drunk generals... we had decided long before to part ways with the BDs... lethargy has consequences.
So let the BDs and the good Indians claim that as victory. It has ZERO impact on Pakistan.

Since, 1948 till the current agreement on CeaseFireLine all ArmedConflicts have resulted in nothing that could change the status quo on this FrozenWar between the Two Orders.

There has been No War between Indias and Pakistan. One if fully aware of the implications of such a statement. Nevertheless!

Indians have been unable to impose their Order on us and we are NOT in a position to impose OurOrder on them. The UglyTruth.

But the FrozenWar can not always remain frozen ... A TotalWar on all Vectors is as real as Pakistan. Neither Pakistan nor India can escape it.
The longer it takes for this War to Unfreez the Desructive it shall be. Piling up weapons for what?
Peace is only won when one Order can become pervailant.

That is Essence of Peace. Anyhting else is Rainbows and unicorns... @StormBreaker

This brings us to identifying the Vectors of Destruction imposed on Pakistan.

Please, consider that Quantification of Accumlated Destruction is a challenge in itself and requires a Substative Framework to start compilying data as @SQ8 knows far too well. However, Quantification of Destruction is imperative. Without it understanding the Consequences/Cost of TotalWar is impossible. It should be Quantified in Gold!

The Economist's
estimation $200+Bln as Cost of Pak's War on Indian Terrorism in OurLand was a snapshot of that moment i.e. till that date. It failed to factor in the ensuing and subsequent costs, including impact and quantification of loss of life of bread-winner on left-behind widows and orphans... @SIPRA

It might appear dark, apathetic or insensitive...but human life is perfectly quantifiable.. just look at the insurance modelling... will rob anyone of their vague notions... not all humans are equal in quantifications... Woke or Not to Woke is irrellevant as it is fake @OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ

Now the Vectors of Destruction then... (these Vectors will be explored later in detail with welcome contribution of the ThinkingHeads of Paks on PDF)


1. Identity Vector
The Idea of Pakistan
is based on the Inheritence of PakCivilisation i.e. Two Nation Fact presented by the Original MuslimLeague and successfully championed by Quaid e Azam R.A. in accordance with the Vision of Allama Iqbal R.A.
Both the Great Muslims of their time.. and nemesis of FazoolMullahMafia.

The good Indians attacked this Civilisation/Identity Vector long before Pakistan came into being...
Ghandi's visit to KPK and him being stoned by OurPashtoons there is still great memory.
But lets not forget that the then KabulRegime tried to stir EthnoNationalism in OurPashtoonBelt.... and we can still see their remenants..though greatly reduced now.
PTM came and went... and a new PTM shall come and go as well. TTP is not a religious outfit but an armed variant of the PTM as we all know.
Talibans on OurFence. Reality check??

Similarly the BalochEthnoNationalism was/is financed by the good Indians and some borthers... during the Soviet times and recently during the American times... and of course, still financing them.

And there are the waderas... sain te sain.. sain da kutta vi sain.
Oh those glorious years of SindhuDesh... JaiSindh was all the rage. Money talks. Pay to Play EthnoNationalists. Just wonderful.
Even the all-to-blame-for Punjabis of NarcoTerroristLeague came up with slogans to wake up the Punjabis...jab Punjabi jab.. terri pag te lag gaya dagh. Fun never stops here.
Of course, how to forget the legendary Kalia of Londonistan. LingoFacists to add to the mix.

Now it is easy to play the Victim here. And Playing Victim shall Add Cost to Pakistan in this TotalWar. We don't have the luxury to do that.

That the good Indians wish to exploit and hire for-rent-terror-outfits or invest in political families/dynasties is FairGame as it is TotalWar.

Why wouldn't an Enemy exploit our internal fissures?

It is to be expected and all we can do is not offer Opportunities.

How halirous this is that a major Dam got undammed because some ethnofacist party member had a factory or something there... Ridiculous but true.
And why wouldn't the good Indians pay such people?
Isn't it Cost Effective for them?

Regardless of the above high level description... Paks remain Paks and the Idea of Pakistan has a Pull that is subliminal... even spiritual.
Yes, cynic has the right to see things through his/her lens. And it is valuable to have such views.

Now when we come to the Real meat of this Vector we need to Quantify the Loss to Pakistan when all the above are accumlated.
Just have a look at Karachi that should form the TrueBaseline in Quantification of Loss to Pakistan.
When we see Karachi as a Battleground ... then my dear Paks, have we won or lost?
Yes, we need to factor in the PPP's facist policies of quotaz and ChinaCutting by all the card-bearing memebers of the CriminalEnterprise. Surely, PDF has enough TTz to Quantify the Net Loss using Karachi as Baseline. Waiting for it.

And since Pakistan neither has the Resources nor do we have the inclination to affect similar courtesy to the good Indians in the Identity Vector... our Benefits have been none!

PakKashmiris
are in Struggle on their own despite the sold-out IOK politicos... and Mushy proved to be 'good guy' and fenced the CeaseFireLine... it is Stupid to call it LoC.

Fleatingly one would draw attention to the glorious SecterianFunk. Loyalists of Persians and Saudis... and that is that. Not going further than this. This too needs to be quantified in terms of Loss to Pakistan.

2. Economic Vector

When OurLand came up as a map on the atals we had No Money to run the nascent PakState. The good Indians withheld OurMoney to kill our statehood in infancy, courtesy Nehru!
YoungPaks must recall that it was Paks who left their homes for OurLand gave money to treasury to run the state.

We had NOTHING. Just land. IMF is our phraand!

Yes, we have had and still do... so many challenges that running the PakState and providing BasicServices to Paks is a Huge Challenge... but again we don't have the luxury to play the Victim.

It is instructive to note that China was far poorer and hungerier back then and all the way to the early 80s. They had a National Plan and we don't. That is why China is Doing the CPEC and not us. Something to ponder about. @vi-va @Shotgunner51

True that the Two AfghanWars have costed us an arm and a leg... and true too that we had No Choice in the matter but to live with the Costs and Consequences the best way we can.

But neither the IMF nor the WorldBank Forced us to NOT have an Economic/Industrial GamePlan i.e. LongTerm Plan divided into FiveYearPlans... eating an elphant with a spoon. And we hear slogans about the ChinaModel of Development. Stupid to say the least.

Once again let us thoroughly abuse this notion. Only China can/could have ChinaDevelopmentModel. None else can.
If someone suggests so then they lack both information and knowledge about the Nature of China. Even in the last years of QingDynasty the imperical court was sending the Chinese to study the American railways. And now if they have the most miles of railtracks of highspeed railways.. it is because they are studious and goal oriented. Call it ConfucianEthics.. call it genetics... it is what it is.

Frankly, most of our loss in this Vector is our own lack of long term planning and defining OurPlace in the World. How do we percieve ourselves?

That the good Indians and Phraandz have kept us in FATF greyzone.. is totally understandable. Again why would an enemy allow you to breath??

The suggestion or oration about we cann't go to war because of poor economy is laughable at best and criminal at worst. @ps3linux
And then there are lumanaries talking about pacifism because of economic realities... Is it acceptance of the IndianOrder? If so then come out a play... why eschew... Funk!

The UglyReality is that to be truly Viable PakState needs to have $1Bln per million Paks in the Reserve. This is MinimumRequirement! And it is so bloody doable that current state of affairs, though understandable as legacy effect, is scary!

So if India is apparently winning in EconomicVector of TotalWar on Pakistan... can we blame them? All we can do now is have an EconomicPlan... choose a DevelopmentModel and stick with it. SouthEastAsia is not descended from Heavens... same brown mass as us.

We need to win this ... we have no other Choice!

3. Diplomatic Vector
60s Pakistan is Gone.
The sooner we accept it the better it is for us. Pakistan then was an Economic and Industrial Power compared to our 'brotherly countries'. And that gave us Diplomatic Leverage ... of course, the alliance with the Yanks did help a bit too. But let us not forget 1962, 1965, 1971 and all the way to Kargil. Let us not forget the IndianBias in the CombinedWest.

Once again... YoungPaks need to revisit the history of the dismanteling of the Ottomans and why Paks Original Map was a no-no for the GlobalEmpire. Has anything changed in that equation?

The Rise of China
is benefitial to the Chinese first and farmost. It does give us breathing space.. considering that China has used its VetoPower to shield us in the UNSC and helped us with FATF along with Turkiye and Malaysia.

But it does show us our DiplmaticStrength... lack thereof actually.

And if India has leveraged its position/existence as a power to Keep Pakistan Down and China Out in the Subcontinet for the GlobalEmpire... then can we blame them. Enemy is expected to utilise everything to its advantage.

There is NO IslamicWorld. There are countries/states which happens to bear the name muslim... but there is no such thing as IslamicWorld. Yes, there is OilRichArabWorld and then there is Mughreb i.e NorthAfrica and some African countries with muslim majority.
Muslims of SouthEastAsia are nationalists first. A Reality we need to absorb.

The outcome of the SecondAfghanWar is not there yet. It would be diplomatic blunder of highest order to conclude that India is out of Afghanistan or CentralAsia. They are in SCO and have a deal with Russia and Iran to build a corridor through Iran and CaspianSea.

The Monkey was working in Chabhar should we forget ... and Persians fashion themselves after their ancient ancestors!

Therefore, let us accept OurWeakness and Baseline OurCondition so that we can have a Clear DiplomaticBattle Plan.

In case of ArmedWar no brother or friend is coming to our aid... and everyone will side with India even when they commit WarCrimes... as in IoJK so would be in Actual TotalWar.

Starting from such point is imperative in planning WarScenarios.

Just as Reality Check: Why would China want to help us in OurWar?

4. Armed Forces Vector

Of all branches of PakArmedForces PNS' coming of Age is the most welcome sight. OurFleet is shapping up nicely. Still a long way to go to become a RealNavalPower in AfroAsianRegion...but good development all around.

In terms of ArmedConflict the Reality is we are a DefensiveForce. Yes, there are Offensive-Defence elements within OurCapabilities but we are NOT in position to wage an OffensiveWar or War of Conquest against the Enemy. It is UglyTruth. We better accept it.

SwiftRetort was magnificent display of the above. And that is that. We need to forget it and move on.

The Purpose of OurArmedForces is to Deny the good Indians from imposing IndianOrder on Pakistan.
Liberation of IoJK
is a complex affair where China is the DecidingFactor. From GHQ to any analyst worth a read knows this. Political slogans are cheap and easy.

PakArmedForces are the Tip of Spear where body of the Spear is PakNation.
This is vitally important that YoungPaks understand this.
PakArmedForces is us and not some alien entity...even though none of this person's chacha, mama or dada was/is in the PakArmedForces... despite this the Ownership is claimed and cherrished.. hence, the desire/demand of Excellence from OurForces!

Till date the good Indians have FAILEd to break the Tip of OurSpear and that comes from the Idea of Pakistan and its Life and Resilience. Something to ponder upon by uniformed and un-uniformed alike!

Yes, OurArmedForces have made tons of mistakes and blunders... and many of decisions are frankly stupid... but overall we are NOT in bad shape.
Of many expectations is one that we NEED to become self-reliant and this has to be One of OurStrategicGoals...
Frankly, there needs to come a stop soon for buying complete systems from even China.. regardless, how helpful they have been or friendly terms of purchases.

It is deliberate attempt from this person to avoid the technical aspects or asset quality/ratio whence compared to the good Indians... simply, because one lacks knowledge and deems essential to take a student posture here.
Surely, we have Paks here who can offer excellent Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis of Strengths and Weakness of PakArmedForces.

For now we can be assured that the good Indians are not in a position to impose their Order on Pakistan. How long will it last depends on us Paks and NOT the good Indians!!!

Two Scenarios:

If the Observation is correct and there is a FrozenWar between India and Pakistan then it becomes obvious to frame WarScenarios in which such an Unfreezing can happen.

For the sake of discussion and exploration its evident that extremes positions in WarGaming take first row. Everything else is variation of these two. One doesn't have to be a general to understand this simple FACT.

Scenario 1:


Pakistan fails to course correct in Socio-Economic Vectors resulting in fragile Diplomatic Strength and less developed ArmedForces.

The Political Families further destablise OurLand and demand that Pakistan become a Confederation which essentially Pakistan has become since the 18th Amendment. Having no Financial stake in Pakistan the CompradorElite starts bagging the money.
No MarshalLaw can be imposed neither there is a clear PoliticalAthourity to affect an National Emergency.

Also, the CombinedWest has imposed massive SanctionsRegime as Punishment for Pakistan joining fully the BRI. HyperInflation and all that jazz.

India does a FalseFlag and blames it on Pakistan. The CombinedWest already primed to the 'defanging' of Pakistan... starts a media campaign.

NATO moblises all its naval strength in the AfroAsianOcean with the USN in the lead... threatening with NuclearStrikes if PakArmedForces were to use StrategicAssets. Green signal to India to move in.

This time, however, India doesn't amass troops on the border but goes for DecapitationStrike with Brahmos and the lot. The Indian strike is so massive that it not only destroys military instillations but also the civilian i.e. State Infrastructure. The goal being destroying the Functioning of the PakState on every level.

India doesn't move in to capture territory. But keeps the pressure for the disintegration of Pakistan into smaller units. The good old BloodBorder dreams!

Scenario 2:

Pakistan has course corrected and has built both the civilian and military strength. Also, Pakistan possesses ICBMs and has strategic assets above 200 with varrying yields.

The CriminalEnterprise is defanged and made impotent. A new, PanPakistan, political force has matured and enjoys human resources of professional quality to manage the economy and industerialisation. Overall Socio-Economic Indicators are condusive for Pakistan to be a Factor in the ThirdActorDynamics of the ME and Capabilites of Deterence in AfroAsianOceanRegion.

In this Scenario Pakistan does the same as India but only focusing on the BufferZone Destruction i.e. areas bordering Pakistan/HindiBelt and Bombay.

After the First Massive Strike Pakistan is already positioned for the SecondStrike with strategic assets primed and ready.

Pakistan pervails without massive capturing of IndianTerritory. The goal of destroying economic and military capabilities is achieved. IoJK is liberated.

Pakistan does incur damages too but nothing fatal.

The Strategic Objective of Creating BufferZone states is achieved with Sikhs given a choice of freedom.


In both senarios Pakistan depends on its own Zoray e Bazoo and neither on brothers nor on friends.

The outcomes of both scenarios will determine which Order pervails in the subcontinent and another war doesn't happen for a long long time.

Its instructive to note that Pakistan CanNOT afford to loose the TotalWar. Simply because if we loose we cease to exist. Both Afghanistan and Persia will have their pound of flesh from our body in case of defeat.

Pakistan is Tounge Leaving among Teeth for the past 75 years.

Our StrategicGoal has to be to change this equation to our benefit.


Mangus

After Thoughts:


It is quite true that the Vectors are not fully detailed and are generic. However, that is the intention to start a discussion. It is also true that the TwoScenarios appear to be too simplistic and don't involve the overall GlobalStruggle in the MulitpolarDynamics.
This is necessary to StressTest Pakistan's Ability to Pervail. Again we do NOT have the luxury to loose a war. India can loose all the BufferZone and still remain functional as a state. We can not.

Furthermore, one is fully aware that the Vectors of War are lightly touched and are more like place holders at first sight. It is understood that the each Vector has its Siblings and all have Qualities... and each Quality have its Atributes and each Atribute has different Aspects.

Modelling a TotalWar is long and expansive excercise. Hopefully, thinkers on PDF will contribute and remdy this.

Drawing Conclusions already is a great temptation but one should avoid it in the early stages of WarGaming and let the Scenario play out first.

It is Clear as PakSun what Pakistan needs to do.


@jaibi @The Eagle dear Paks, kindly, let this thread remain in this section... given the subject matter one expects it to die a quick death! Thankyou!!!
 

Hakikat ve Hikmet

ELITE MEMBER
Nov 14, 2015
14,748
19
39,156
Country
United States
Location
United States
A great sketch of the REALITY...

I have a couple of notes:
  • TNT (based on a Hadis-i Sherif): It started in the socio-political realm during the rule of Hazret Umar (RA), the 2nd Khalifa. The Ottoman Empire followed it till Sultan Mehmut II abolished it under the European pressure in 1820s to cater for a secular order. It is the beginning of the collapse of the Empire.
  • The Muslim civilization passes through ups and downs in a cyclic manner, the upside being longer the downside. IMO Pak has reached the nadir, so now it's her turn to go up. As stuffs are created in pairs, Pak's going up implies India's going down.
 

peagle

SENIOR MEMBER
Dec 29, 2019
2,108
10
5,073
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
War is the most horrible, darkest of human expression.

War is Stupid.
Only stupid want war.


The Idea of this thread is both an exposition of the nature and consequences of war... and... developing an understanding of dealing with it.
Of course, it is not intended as a Critique of HumanCondition.
It is about Framing the TotalWar in Pakistan's context.

Turning 75 this year. Pakistan is.
25 more years to go. 100!!!
What is Our GrandPlan? Any?
Milestones?
Roadmap?


A long journey it is going to be... beset with huge challenges of correcting the course of the PakState .. in governance and economy.. and most importantly improving the CollectiveLife of all Paks. Education, education, education.. and some more.

Our biggest challenge is going to be shaping the PakNational Character from present Escapismo to that of Inquiry, ScientificMethod and its Application ... and again.. education, education... education. @Reddington

PakState has made public its current thinking in the form of Pak National Security Policy. It is a good start. But it is that.. a start.
Of course, it needs to go through a lot of iterations to have clarity in goals and a Plan to achieve them.
In its current form it is more like an agenda item for discussion than an End Product.

Regardless, this the nature of such documents... and certainly in the case of a country like Pakistan... it is a good start.
It is instructive to read and reflect on the excellent critique of this NSP done by Gen. (rtd) Trariq Khan.
A brilliant analysis and clarity of questions is refreshing... giving impetus to hope that there are a lot of PakBrains which are active and alive to both National and International challenges and can frame their thinking to PakPositive outcomes. One tends to believe that there are more 'end-products' like the esteemed Gen. Khan coming out of our instituitions.

On to TotalWar then....

TotalWar on Pakistan:

The purpose of any conflict is to impose one's will on the other party. Be it tribal or national effort.
Subduing the enemy and imposing one's will is the Only Outcome that matters. If it is not achieved then the 'Cost n Benefit' Ratio of Conflict remains unbalanced... prolonging the it further... costing more.. time, material and lives. More so for the Weaker side.

It is the Cost-Benefit Analysis which is the foundation of actions, semi-actions or non-actions by the SaneStates.
Absence of such Extreme Rationality, states, like peopel, are prone to make massive errors and pay the price for it.

Paks need to understand, especially YoungPaks, that Pakistan, as InheritorState, is in Recovery and requires time still to become a Great Regional Power.
Our Decline started some two plus centuries ago.

And when Decline sets in... it follows its course. It does extract its pounds of Flesh. We should know.. we are still paying in PakBlood and so are PakKashmiris. Long road to Freedom.

It is also imperative to understand that Pakistan at 75 has taken a very long time to be here... being a Weaker and Smaller State than the Enemy and its Friends/Backers... we had to join alliances out of Weakness and need to Survive!
Easy it is for some to criticise on internet about Pak's Choices of the Past and Present... but all those choices have been Choices of Survival. @peagle

Hindsight is a privilge for commentators and critics... but decisions are made in the moments if there is No Long Term Plan of a State. It is what it is ... and this Fact doesn't bother about Morality or Honesty or Ethics.
Neither does it care for lamentations.

The Ugly Truth is that we are a Defeated Order in the Subcontinent and Pakistan is a Miracle to behold...

The Very Creation of Pakistan was the First Step in OurRecovery.
Having a State of our own has enabled us to protect OurTehzeeb and OurIdentity.
Yes, we have a lot of demons in our garden or front yard... but we are a State nevertheless... just have a look at the 'Indian' muslims. Nothing further to add here.

We need to visit and revisit, again and again, the Original, Natural... purposed Map of Pakistan.
And when the Meaning sets in .. it becomes abandently clear that why the British could not allow for such a State to come into being.

Please, YoungPaks, do remember that Quaid e Azam R.A. was against the devisions of Bengal and Punjab on the basis of religion..but the Congress of the good Indians wanted it.
They needed MassGenocide as first step their Recovery. Without the blood of million plus muslims their Order couldn't begin... and it was War.

The TotalWar for the Creation of Pakistan
costed Million+ Pak lives ... but the Benefit is Pakistan at 75... giving us OurLand so that we can have The Privilge to criticise Pakistan and PakState...because it is Ours!!!

From our Day 1 till today we are under attack.
Our existence is a threat to the IndianOrder simply because we represent and inherit the Old Order of 1000yrs.

The HybridWar on Pakistan
is not new.. it started even before Pakistan came into being @N.Siddiqui @Ace of Spades @M. Sarmad the Cleansing of Muslims from Jammu to Utrakand is yesterdays news.
So this Non-Kinetic Indian Doctorine is not a new thing @PanzerKiel @Signalian @HRK
Even now there is a thread on 10 PakArmy men killed by the Indians via their terrorist pets.
This is just daily addition to 80k PakLives and more billions to the incurring Costs for the PakState i.e Paks who pay for it. APS.

The day Paks or PakState forgets to repay the Debt of APS
... will be day Pakistan has accepted the IndianOrder.

And let us abuse any naivete here... even if Pakistan accepts the IndianOrder like BD it is not going to be enough. Rather it would be an inducement for the good Indians to impose their will more harshpy.
And frankly, why not? Isn't it the purpose of Vicotry?

Till today Pakistan has fought and won all Battles against the IndianOrder in the ArmedConflict Vector.
71 was a fluke and result of insanity and vulgarities of Pak politicos and drunk generals... we had decided long before to part ways with the BDs... lethargy has consequences.
So let the BDs and the good Indians claim that as victory. It has ZERO impact on Pakistan.

Since, 1948 till the current agreement on CeaseFireLine all ArmedConflicts have resulted in nothing that could change the status quo on this FrozenWar between the Two Orders.

There has been No War between Indias and Pakistan. One if fully aware of the implications of such a statement. Nevertheless!

Indians have been unable to impose their Order on us and we are NOT in a position to impose OurOrder on them. The UglyTruth.

But the FrozenWar can not always remain frozen ... A TotalWar on all Vectors is as real as Pakistan. Neither Pakistan nor India can escape it.
The longer it takes for this War to Unfreez the Desructive it shall be. Piling up weapons for what?
Peace is only won when one Order can become pervailant.

That is Essence of Peace. Anyhting else is Rainbows and unicorns... @StormBreaker

This brings us to identifying the Vectors of Destruction imposed on Pakistan.

Please, consider that Quantification of Accumlated Destruction is a challenge in itself and requires a Substative Framework to start compilying data as @SQ8 knows far too well. However, Quantification of Destruction is imperative. Without it understanding the Consequences/Cost of TotalWar is impossible. It should be Quantified in Gold!

The Economist's
estimation $200+Bln as Cost of Pak's War on Indian Terrorism in OurLand was a snapshot of that moment i.e. till that date. It failed to factor in the ensuing and subsequent costs, including impact and quantification of loss of life of bread-winner on left-behind widows and orphans... @SIPRA

It might appear dark, apathetic or insensitive...but human life is perfectly quantifiable.. just look at the insurance modelling... will rob anyone of their vague notions... not all humans are equal in quantifications... Woke or Not to Woke is irrellevant as it is fake @OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ

Now the Vectors of Destruction then... (these Vectors will be explored later in detail with welcome contribution of the ThinkingHeads of Paks on PDF)


1. Identity Vector
The Idea of Pakistan
is based on the Inheritence of PakCivilisation i.e. Two Nation Fact presented by the Original MuslimLeague and successfully championed by Quaid e Azam R.A. in accordance with the Vision of Allama Iqbal R.A.
Both the Great Muslims of their time.. and nemesis of FazoolMullahMafia.

The good Indians attacked this Civilisation/Identity Vector long before Pakistan came into being...
Ghandi's visit to KPK and him being stoned by OurPashtoons there is still great memory.
But lets not forget that the then KabulRegime tried to stir EthnoNationalism in OurPashtoonBelt.... and we can still see their remenants..though greatly reduced now.
PTM came and went... and a new PTM shall come and go as well. TTP is not a religious outfit but an armed variant of the PTM as we all know.
Talibans on OurFence. Reality check??

Similarly the BalochEthnoNationalism was/is financed by the good Indians and some borthers... during the Soviet times and recently during the American times... and of course, still financing them.

And there are the waderas... sain te sain.. sain da kutta vi sain.
Oh those glorious years of SindhuDesh... JaiSindh was all the rage. Money talks. Pay to Play EthnoNationalists. Just wonderful.
Even the all-to-blame-for Punjabis of NarcoTerroristLeague came up with slogans to wake up the Punjabis...jab Punjabi jab.. terri pag te lag gaya dagh. Fun never stops here.
Of course, how to forget the legendary Kalia of Londonistan. LingoFacists to add to the mix.

Now it is easy to play the Victim here. And Playing Victim shall Add Cost to Pakistan in this TotalWar. We don't have the luxury to do that.

That the good Indians wish to exploit and hire for-rent-terror-outfits or invest in political families/dynasties is FairGame as it is TotalWar.

Why wouldn't an Enemy exploit our internal fissures?

It is to be expected and all we can do is not offer Opportunities.

How halirous this is that a major Dam got undammed because some ethnofacist party member had a factory or something there... Ridiculous but true.
And why wouldn't the good Indians pay such people?
Isn't it Cost Effective for them?

Regardless of the above high level description... Paks remain Paks and the Idea of Pakistan has a Pull that is subliminal... even spiritual.
Yes, cynic has the right to see things through his/her lens. And it is valuable to have such views.

Now when we come to the Real meat of this Vector we need to Quantify the Loss to Pakistan when all the above are accumlated.
Just have a look at Karachi that should form the TrueBaseline in Quantification of Loss to Pakistan.
When we see Karachi as a Battleground ... then my dear Paks, have we won or lost?
Yes, we need to factor in the PPP's facist policies of quotaz and ChinaCutting by all the card-bearing memebers of the CriminalEnterprise. Surely, PDF has enough TTz to Quantify the Net Loss using Karachi as Baseline. Waiting for it.

And since Pakistan neither has the Resources nor do we have the inclination to affect similar courtesy to the good Indians in the Identity Vector... our Benefits have been none!

PakKashmiris
are in Struggle on their own despite the sold-out IOK politicos... and Mushy proved to be 'good guy' and fenced the CeaseFireLine... it is Stupid to call it LoC.

Fleatingly one would draw attention to the glorious SecterianFunk. Loyalists of Persians and Saudis... and that is that. Not going further than this. This too needs to be quantified in terms of Loss to Pakistan.

2. Economic Vector

When OurLand came up as a map on the atals we had No Money to run the nascent PakState. The good Indians withheld OurMoney to kill our statehood in infancy, courtesy Nehru!
YoungPaks must recall that it was Paks who left their homes for OurLand gave money to treasury to run the state.

We had NOTHING. Just land. IMF is our phraand!

Yes, we have had and still do... so many challenges that running the PakState and providing BasicServices to Paks is a Huge Challenge... but again we don't have the luxury to play the Victim.

It is instructive to note that China was far poorer and hungerier back then and all the way to the early 80s. They had a National Plan and we don't. That is why China is Doing the CPEC and not us. Something to ponder about. @vi-va @Shotgunner51

True that the Two AfghanWars have costed us an arm and a leg... and true too that we had No Choice in the matter but to live with the Costs and Consequences the best way we can.

But neither the IMF nor the WorldBank Forced us to NOT have an Economic/Industrial GamePlan i.e. LongTerm Plan divided into FiveYearPlans... eating an elphant with a spoon. And we hear slogans about the ChinaModel of Development. Stupid to say the least.

Once again let us thoroughly abuse this notion. Only China can/could have ChinaDevelopmentModel. None else can.
If someone suggests so then they lack both information and knowledge about the Nature of China. Even in the last years of QingDynasty the imperical court was sending the Chinese to study the American railways. And now if they have the most miles of railtracks of highspeed railways.. it is because they are studious and goal oriented. Call it ConfucianEthics.. call it genetics... it is what it is.

Frankly, most of our loss in this Vector is our own lack of long term planning and defining OurPlace in the World. How do we percieve ourselves?

That the good Indians and Phraandz have kept us in FATF greyzone.. is totally understandable. Again why would an enemy allow you to breath??

The suggestion or oration about we cann't go to war because of poor economy is laughable at best and criminal at worst. @ps3linux
And then there are lumanaries talking about pacifism because of economic realities... Is it acceptance of the IndianOrder? If so then come out a play... why eschew... Funk!

The UglyReality is that to be truly Viable PakState needs to have $1Bln per million Paks in the Reserve. This is MinimumRequirement! And it is so bloody doable that current state of affairs, though understandable as legacy effect, is scary!

So if India is apparently winning in EconomicVector of TotalWar on Pakistan... can we blame them? All we can do now is have an EconomicPlan... choose a DevelopmentModel and stick with it. SouthEastAsia is not descended from Heavens... same brown mass as us.

We need to win this ... we have no other Choice!

3. Diplomatic Vector
60s Pakistan is Gone.
The sooner we accept it the better it is for us. Pakistan then was an Economic and Industrial Power compared to our 'brotherly countries'. And that gave us Diplomatic Leverage ... of course, the alliance with the Yanks did help a bit too. But let us not forget 1962, 1965, 1971 and all the way to Kargil. Let us not forget the IndianBias in the CombinedWest.

Once again... YoungPaks need to revisit the history of the dismanteling of the Ottomans and why Paks Original Map was a no-no for the GlobalEmpire. Has anything changed in that equation?

The Rise of China
is benefitial to the Chinese first and farmost. It does give us breathing space.. considering that China has used its VetoPower to shield us in the UNSC and helped us with FATF along with Turkiye and Malaysia.

But it does show us our DiplmaticStrength... lack thereof actually.

And if India has leveraged its position/existence as a power to Keep Pakistan Down and China Out in the Subcontinet for the GlobalEmpire... then can we blame them. Enemy is expected to utilise everything to its advantage.

There is NO IslamicWorld. There are countries/states which happens to bear the name muslim... but there is no such thing as IslamicWorld. Yes, there is OilRichArabWorld and then there is Mughreb i.e NorthAfrica and some African countries with muslim majority.
Muslims of SouthEastAsia are nationalists first. A Reality we need to absorb.

The outcome of the SecondAfghanWar is not there yet. It would be diplomatic blunder of highest order to conclude that India is out of Afghanistan or CentralAsia. They are in SCO and have a deal with Russia and Iran to build a corridor through Iran and CaspianSea.

The Monkey was working in Chabhar should we forget ... and Persians fashion themselves after their ancient ancestors!

Therefore, let us accept OurWeakness and Baseline OurCondition so that we can have a Clear DiplomaticBattle Plan.

In case of ArmedWar no brother or friend is coming to our aid... and everyone will side with India even when they commit WarCrimes... as in IoJK so would be in Actual TotalWar.

Starting from such point is imperative in planning WarScenarios.

Just as Reality Check: Why would China want to help us in OurWar?

4. Armed Forces Vector

Of all branches of PakArmedForces PNS' coming of Age is the most welcome sight. OurFleet is shapping up nicely. Still a long way to go to become a RealNavalPower in AfroAsianRegion...but good development all around.

In terms of ArmedConflict the Reality is we are a DefensiveForce. Yes, there are Offensive-Defence elements within OurCapabilities but we are NOT in position to wage an OffensiveWar or War of Conquest against the Enemy. It is UglyTruth. We better accept it.

SwiftRetort was magnificent display of the above. And that is that. We need to forget it and move on.

The Purpose of OurArmedForces is to Deny the good Indians from imposing IndianOrder on Pakistan.
Liberation of IoJK
is a complex affair where China is the DecidingFactor. From GHQ to any analyst worth a read knows this. Political slogans are cheap and easy.

PakArmedForces are the Tip of Spear where body of the Spear is PakNation.
This is vitally important that YoungPaks understand this.
PakArmedForces is us and not some alien entity...even though none of this person's chacha, mama or dada was/is in the PakArmedForces... despite this the Ownership is claimed and cherrished.. hence, the desire/demand of Excellence from OurForces!

Till date the good Indians have FAILEd to break the Tip of OurSpear and that comes from the Idea of Pakistan and its Life and Resilience. Something to ponder upon by uniformed and un-uniformed alike!

Yes, OurArmedForces have made tons of mistakes and blunders... and many of decisions are frankly stupid... but overall we are NOT in bad shape.
Of many expectations is one that we NEED to become self-reliant and this has to be One of OurStrategicGoals...
Frankly, there needs to come a stop soon for buying complete systems from even China.. regardless, how helpful they have been or friendly terms of purchases.

It is deliberate attempt from this person to avoid the technical aspects or asset quality/ratio whence compared to the good Indians... simply, because one lacks knowledge and deems essential to take a student posture here.
Surely, we have Paks here who can offer excellent Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis of Strengths and Weakness of PakArmedForces.

For now we can be assured that the good Indians are not in a position to impose their Order on Pakistan. How long will it last depends on us Paks and NOT the good Indians!!!

Two Scenarios:

If the Observation is correct and there is a FrozenWar between India and Pakistan then it becomes obvious to frame WarScenarios in which such an Unfreezing can happen.

For the sake of discussion and exploration its evident that extremes positions in WarGaming take first row. Everything else is variation of these two. One doesn't have to be a general to understand this simple FACT.

Scenario 1:

Pakistan fails to course correct in Socio-Economic Vectors resulting in fragile Diplomatic Strength and less developed ArmedForces.

The Political Families further destablise OurLand and demand that Pakistan become a Confederation which essentially Pakistan has become since the 18th Amendment. Having no Financial stake in Pakistan the CompradorElite starts bagging the money.
No MarshalLaw can be imposed neither there is a clear PoliticalAthourity to affect an National Emergency.

Also, the CombinedWest has imposed massive SanctionsRegime as Punishment for Pakistan joining fully the BRI. HyperInflation and all that jazz.

India does a FalseFlag and blames it on Pakistan. The CombinedWest already primed to the 'defanging' of Pakistan... starts a media campaign.

NATO moblises all its naval strength in the AfroAsianOcean with the USN in the lead... threatening with NuclearStrikes if PakArmedForces were to use StrategicAssets. Green signal to India to move in.

This time, however, India doesn't amass troops on the border but goes for DecapitationStrike with Brahmos and the lot. The Indian strike is so massive that it not only destroys military instillations but also the civilian i.e. State Infrastructure. The goal being destroying the Functioning of the PakState on every level.

India doesn't move in to capture territory. But keeps the pressure for the disintegration of Pakistan into smaller units. The good old BloodBorder dreams!

Scenario 2:

Pakistan has course corrected and has built both the civilian and military strength. Also, Pakistan possesses ICBMs and has strategic assets above 200 with varrying yields.

The CriminalEnterprise is defanged and made impotent. A new, PanPakistan, political force has matured and enjoys human resources of professional quality to manage the economy and industerialisation. Overall Socio-Economic Indicators are condusive for Pakistan to be a Factor in the ThirdActorDynamics of the ME and Capabilites of Deterence in AfroAsianOceanRegion.

In this Scenario Pakistan does the same as India but only focusing on the BufferZone Destruction i.e. areas bordering Pakistan/HindiBelt and Bombay.

After the First Massive Strike Pakistan is already positioned for the SecondStrike with strategic assets primed and ready.

Pakistan pervails without massive capturing of IndianTerritory. The goal of destroying economic and military capabilities is achieved. IoJK is liberated.

Pakistan does incur damages too but nothing fatal.

The Strategic Objective of Creating BufferZone states is achieved with Sikhs given a choice of freedom.


In both senarios Pakistan depends on its own Zoray e Bazoo and neither on brothers nor on friends.

The outcomes of both scenarios will determine which Order pervails in the subcontinent and another war doesn't happen for a long long time.

Its instructive to note that Pakistan CanNOT afford to loose the TotalWar. Simply because if we loose we cease to exist. Both Afghanistan and Persia will have their pound of flesh from our body in case of defeat.

Pakistan is Tounge Leaving among Teeth for the past 75 years.

Our StrategicGoal has to be to change this equation to our benefit.


Mangus

After Thoughts:

It is quite true that the Vectors are not fully detailed and are generic. However, that is the intention to start a discussion. It is also true that the TwoScenarios appear to be too simplistic and don't involve the overall GlobalStruggle in the MulitpolarDynamics.
This is necessary to StressTest Pakistan's Ability to Pervail. Again we do NOT have the luxury to loose a war. India can loose all the BufferZone and still remain functional as a state. We can not.

Furthermore, one is fully aware that the Vectors of War are lightly touched and are more like place holders at first sight. It is understood that the each Vector has its Siblings and all have Qualities... and each Quality have its Atributes and each Atribute has different Aspects.

Modelling a TotalWar is long and expansive excercise. Hopefully, thinkers on PDF will contribute and remdy this.

Drawing Conclusions already is a great temptation but one should avoid it in the early stages of WarGaming and let the Scenario play out first.

It is Clear as PakSun what Pakistan needs to do.


@jaibi @The Eagle dear Paks, kindly, let this thread remain in this section... given the subject matter one expects it to die a quick death! Thankyou!!!

This was a mouthful, I actually set aside time in the evening to read it in peace, whilst listening to Arabian Oud music, something I've discovered recently, I'm sure you'll enjoy it on youtube.

First of all, welcome back to the old Mangus, good to see you again :)


The body of your argument was just beautiful, one can feel the thoughtful exercise you conducted in formulating your arguments and a splendid effort in trying to cover all aspects. There is very little to comment on in this section, because I largely agree. The only thing I would point out, not as a shortcoming but rather a different perspective, Tariq Khan no longer holds intellectual curiosity, his analysis is rather dull lately, although I haven't yet read his analysis on the NSP. And, I would say wait for the day BD pulls itself out of Indian shadow, I can already see the awakening of it's people, they are bidding their time, although I could be wrong.

However, I do have problems with both your scenarios.
For one, both are rather extreme, very unlikely scenarios. I suppose they cater to the dramatic side of Pakistani psyche, so there will be lot of takers.

I do not see any buffer zones in both the countries, there are areas of potential weaknesses, but not zones in how you've presented them.
Pakistani Buffer zone is at the international border, beyond that there is Punjab, and the new Sindh, the desh part died long ago, we can see that from afar and people we know in our lives. The areas of weakness that do exist were the former tribal areas, that will be completely resolved once the merger with KPK is in full effect, right now there is still a process. And, don't forget, when they did not even know what Pakistan was, they still came running to fight for Pakistan, that is the pull of Pakistaniate, it is an undefined ISHQ, I quit trying to find the meaning long ago. We are Pakistan, and Pakistan is us, no need to find an explanation. the only explanation is ISHQ.

The other area is Baluchistan, nothing except drama has happened in 75 years, what the heck can anyone do now? nothing, not a bloody thing. And once we get rid of the stupid A and B areas, that weakness will also be resolved permanently.

The weaknesses on the side of India are many, the North East, Punjab, South India, Maoist areas and of course Jammu and Kashmir, these are areas of weaknesses rather then buffer zones because a buffer zone is contingent to a line or an opponent, these areas are dotted around the country.

Plus, both the states are strong enough to push back against each other, unless there is superpower game play involved. Here again, Pakistan has seen the 20 years of "do more", backed by a free hand to India and Afghan regimes, it achieved nothing. Pakistan faced full pressure of the Soviets, backed by a belligerent India, what did they achieve? nothing. SO Pakistan has already shown it can handle superpower pressures, India however has not.

On one side you have a Pakistan with proven capacity to handle superpower gameplay, on the other side India is still unproven. but since your scenarios do not involved super power gameplay, I do not see them being played out.

Western powers and America will never come out openly against Pakistan in a physical manner, it has a cost, a cost they will not be willing to pay. Pakistan would have to do something extremely stupid and very direct for their active involvement, Pakistani state is far more clever then we give it credit.

I do however think, India might try one or two more Balakot type scenarios, just to test it's helplessness, after which it will decide, ok let's sort this out peacefully, because there is no other option. I'll leave it here and contribute further if required.
 

Mangus Ortus Novem

SENIOR MEMBER
Jun 7, 2008
2,997
186
32,237
Country
Netherlands
Location
Pakistan
This was a mouthful, I actually set aside time in the evening to read it in peace, whilst listening to Arabian Oud music, something I've discovered recently, I'm sure you'll enjoy it on youtube.

First of all, welcome back to the old Mangus, good to see you again :)


The body of your argument was just beautiful, one can feel the thoughtful exercise you conducted in formulating your arguments and a splendid effort in trying to cover all aspects. There is very little to comment on in this section, because I largely agree. The only thing I would point out, not as a shortcoming but rather a different perspective, Tariq Khan no longer holds intellectual curiosity, his analysis is rather dull lately, although I haven't yet read his analysis on the NSP. And, I would say wait for the day BD pulls itself out of Indian shadow, I can already see the awakening of it's people, they are bidding their time, although I could be wrong.

However, I do have problems with both your scenarios.
For one, both are rather extreme, very unlikely scenarios. I suppose they cater to the dramatic side of Pakistani psyche, so there will be lot of takers.

I do not see any buffer zones in both the countries, there are areas of potential weaknesses, but not zones in how you've presented them.
Pakistani Buffer zone is at the international border, beyond that there is Punjab, and the new Sindh, the desh part died long ago, we can see that from afar and people we know in our lives. The areas of weakness that do exist were the former tribal areas, that will be completely resolved once the merger with KPK is in full effect, right now there is still a process. And, don't forget, when they did not even know what Pakistan was, they still came running to fight for Pakistan, that is the pull of Pakistaniate, it is an undefined ISHQ, I quit trying to find the meaning long ago. We are Pakistan, and Pakistan is us, no need to find an explanation. the only explanation is ISHQ.

The other area is Baluchistan, nothing except drama has happened in 75 years, what the heck can anyone do now? nothing, not a bloody thing. And once we get rid of the stupid A and B areas, that weakness will also be resolved permanently.

The weaknesses on the side of India are many, the North East, Punjab, South India, Maoist areas and of course Jammu and Kashmir, these are areas of weaknesses rather then buffer zones because a buffer zone is contingent to a line or an opponent, these areas are dotted around the country.

Plus, both the states are strong enough to push back against each other, unless there is superpower game play involved. Here again, Pakistan has seen the 20 years of "do more", backed by a free hand to India and Afghan regimes, it achieved nothing. Pakistan faced full pressure of the Soviets, backed by a belligerent India, what did they achieve? nothing. SO Pakistan has already shown it can handle superpower pressures, India however has not.

On one side you have a Pakistan with proven capacity to handle superpower gameplay, on the other side India is still unproven. but since your scenarios do not involved super power gameplay, I do not see them being played out.

Western powers and America will never come out openly against Pakistan in a physical manner, it has a cost, a cost they will not be willing to pay. Pakistan would have to do something extremely stupid and very direct for their active involvement, Pakistani state is far more clever then we give it credit.

I do however think, India might try one or two more Balakot type scenarios, just to test it's helplessness, after which it will decide, ok let's sort this out peacefully, because there is no other option. I'll leave it here and contribute further if required.


Valid points, yaar meray!

The idea of creating ExtremeScenarios is obtaining a Baseline of Current and Future Capabilities of Pakistan.

Pakistan in its current form is a stub... I know what I say.. and your difference is welcome as always!!!

And this Reality is why we cann't afford to loose even a Battle to the good Indians let alone TheWar which shall come... even if heaven freeze or melts... global warming n all...

Finally PNS is coming of Age... as you no doubt can percieve PNS is going to carry massive responsibilities on its shoulders or bows... as in past 1000yrs we didn't have a navy... so our auto-piloted-thinking is non-naval... whereas Pakistan needs to have Navy second to none in AfroAsianOcean... regardless how many ships the good Indians possess.

This has to be our StrategicObjective.

And of course, it goes without saying that we need to build AreoSpaceCapabilities to facilitate this and much more...

Again it all depends on : How We Percieve Ourselves?

My vision is coloured by PakPositiveNationalism.. and my tendency to be hard/harsh on MyArmedForces and MyPakState is known...

Second to None!!!

Mangus
 

peagle

SENIOR MEMBER
Dec 29, 2019
2,108
10
5,073
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
Valid points, yaar meray!

The idea of creating ExtremeScenarios is obtaining a Baseline of Current and Future Capabilities of Pakistan.

Pakistan in its current form is a stub... I know what I say.. and your difference is welcome as always!!!

And this Reality is why we cann't afford to loose even a Battle to the good Indians let alone TheWar which shall come... even if heaven freeze or melts... global warming n all...

Finally PNS is coming of Age... as you no doubt can percieve PNS is going to carry massive responsibilities on its shoulders or bows... as in past 1000yrs we didn't have a navy... so our auto-piloted-thinking is non-naval... whereas Pakistan needs to have Navy second to none in AfroAsianOcean... regardless how many ships the good Indians possess.

This has to be our StrategicObjective.

And of course, it goes without saying that we need to build AreoSpaceCapabilities to facilitate this and much more...

Again it all depends on : How We Percieve Ourselves?

My vision is coloured by PakPositiveNationalism.. and my tendency to be hard/harsh on MyArmedForces and MyPakState is known...

Second to None!!!

Mangus

Well, the simple fact is that balanced realities are arrived at by evaluating every broad scenario, the mild and the extreme.
No one can tell the future, so it is better to touch upon all possible ideas, then remain wilfully blind.
 

Mangus Ortus Novem

SENIOR MEMBER
Jun 7, 2008
2,997
186
32,237
Country
Netherlands
Location
Pakistan
Well, the simple fact is that balanced realities are arrived at by evaluating every broad scenario, the mild and the extreme.
No one can tell the future, so it is better to touch upon all possible ideas, then remain wilfully blind.


O yaar meray,

Indeed, that is motive behind this exploration. To push our thinking process to the limits... otherwise, we are dazzeled too easily by an arrival of new jet or some new artillery pieces or smacking the good Indian behinds a la Feb27.

A very light spanking at best really. Nothing to hang for more than two weeks.

Now as The Momentum of History is advancing its impact on Pakistan is going to be heavy.
Once again a reminder that the BattleField is in Pakistan for the past 4+ decades.
This will only stop when OurOrder becomes pervailant. Not before!

Just to add more texture to our discussion... it is going to have great impact on Pakistan what happens in Ukarine.

If Russina Ultimatum wins what will be the impact on Pakistan?

If US/NATO wins what will be the impact on Pakistan?

Sadly, YoungPaks and Paks in general avoid StrategicThinking... perhaps the continum of OurFall... but it is a great hinderence for the StrategicThoughtCulture of OurLand.
It is too inward focused.

@Hakikat ve Hikmet brother ... when the Sultanat e Usmania fell... OurOrder fell. We Paks then went to Turkiye to fight for OurOrder i.e. preserving the Sultanant!

A TotalWar on Pakistan is a given. Time is flowing in this direction.

Mangus
 
Nov 18, 2014
1,391
2
1,818
Country
United States
Location
United States
Let the vessel dictate the shape...
Or,
As the vessel so the shape.

The domestic actors are provided a pedestal by the state itself... when it federalizes an otherwise local... as current political set up of the state.

Case in point in case of open Baloch agitation for example...

If each was confined into themselves with a local structure, it wouldn't easily translate into larger. Give them a larger meaning, or a larger vessel and they'll likewise try to fill that void, impossible though it may be...

All politics being local, their structures and polity must be unto themselves and not spilling over, costing lives of otherwise aimless and wide-eyed masses.
They should have local structured and tiered leadership in a defined scape and scope.
Agitation and violence cannot spillover in their vicinity.
Safe transit and commerce... etc.

In other words confine the defined.

The colonial rule was never intended to provide recognition, local rule and administration to their subjects. It must not be the aim of it's successor as well. Given that all still look towards, magnanify and apotheosize the west... they will never organically be able to suddenly start looking at things objectively and in their proper context.
Which becomes a tool for foreign and domestic adversaries to catalyze ... a wedge point that never should have been!

But once recognized, must be rectified!
 
Last edited:

peagle

SENIOR MEMBER
Dec 29, 2019
2,108
10
5,073
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom
I would like to apologise for multi quotes, a personal dislike, without reason. But, Today I'm especially tired so unable to keep a coherent statement intact lol, but wish to reply non-the-less.

otherwise, we are dazzeled too easily by an arrival of new jet or some new artillery pieces or smacking the good Indian behinds a la Feb27.
This really made me laugh, totally agree, but there are few things that unite us, raw comedy being one, so let them enjoy and enjoy with the proletariat as one :p:

Just to add more texture to our discussion... it is going to have great impact on Pakistan what happens in Ukarine.
I can't say I agree, it has no impact on Pakistan whatsoever, if you meant in a direct manner.

The indirect impact, in my view will be two.
It will push Russia closer to Pakistan, because it will push Russia closer to China, a new troika so to speak, in the long term off course, right now we are in stage stupid. People keep mentioning Iran with a population of 84 possibly 90+ million at most. The potentially 400 million have a pull of their own.

The second indirect impact will be for the Americans to rethink, do they really want to lose Pakistan fully to the Chinese. Indirect impact yes, direct impact, non whatsoever.
Like or not, Pakistan is a giant, the world knows, the only people who do not know it are the Pakistani nation.

If Russina Ultimatum wins what will be the impact on Pakistan?

If US/NATO wins what will be the impact on Pakistan?
If Russia wins, Pakistan wins in so many ways,
If Russia loses, Pakistan wins in so many ways.
My statements are not wishful thinking, but have solid reasons.

I'm hoping and praying for the day North Korea collapses, that will be the biggest win for Pakistan. I do not think anyone has though about it, I have not heard anyone mention it or write about it. It will be a bonanza like non other.

Sadly, YoungPaks and Paks in general avoid StrategicThinking... perhaps the continum of OurFall... but it is a great hinderence for the StrategicThoughtCulture of OurLand.
It is too inward focused.
You know, I think we are not as bad as we think. Strategic thinking is for the great powers, for lesser beings, it is about making do with the situation you have, and adjusting to your ground realities.

We haven't done so badly. We keep saying we're poor but at the same time expect miraculous things. Pakistan operates within certain realities and constraints, we are doing just fine. Not to say we haven't made mistakes, we have, but on the whole, personally speaking, we've had a beautiful ride lol

when the Sultanat e Usmania fell... OurOrder fell. We Paks then went to Turkiye to fight for OurOrder i.e. preserving the Sultanant!

This was among the best things to happen. To be clear my knowledge is limited on this topic, just from what I know, It was in a decline for a long time and did not know how to get out of it, being influenced by greater powers.
It was time to renew, and New realities have emerged, they are not too bad. Lovely :) lol
 

ps3linux

FULL MEMBER
Mar 4, 2019
912
33
2,804
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
War is the most horrible, darkest of human expression.

War is Stupid.
Only stupid want war.


The Idea of this thread is both an exposition of the nature and consequences of war... and... developing an understanding of dealing with it.
Of course, it is not intended as a Critique of HumanCondition.
It is about Framing the TotalWar in Pakistan's context.

Turning 75 this year. Pakistan is.
25 more years to go. 100!!!
What is Our GrandPlan? Any?
Milestones?
Roadmap?


A long journey it is going to be... beset with huge challenges of correcting the course of the PakState .. in governance and economy.. and most importantly improving the CollectiveLife of all Paks. Education, education, education.. and some more.

Our biggest challenge is going to be shaping the PakNational Character from present Escapismo to that of Inquiry, ScientificMethod and its Application ... and again.. education, education... education. @Reddington

PakState has made public its current thinking in the form of Pak National Security Policy. It is a good start. But it is that.. a start.
Of course, it needs to go through a lot of iterations to have clarity in goals and a Plan to achieve them.
In its current form it is more like an agenda item for discussion than an End Product.

Regardless, this the nature of such documents... and certainly in the case of a country like Pakistan... it is a good start.
It is instructive to read and reflect on the excellent critique of this NSP done by Gen. (rtd) Trariq Khan.
A brilliant analysis and clarity of questions is refreshing... giving impetus to hope that there are a lot of PakBrains which are active and alive to both National and International challenges and can frame their thinking to PakPositive outcomes. One tends to believe that there are more 'end-products' like the esteemed Gen. Khan coming out of our instituitions.

On to TotalWar then....

TotalWar on Pakistan:

The purpose of any conflict is to impose one's will on the other party. Be it tribal or national effort.
Subduing the enemy and imposing one's will is the Only Outcome that matters. If it is not achieved then the 'Cost n Benefit' Ratio of Conflict remains unbalanced... prolonging the it further... costing more.. time, material and lives. More so for the Weaker side.

It is the Cost-Benefit Analysis which is the foundation of actions, semi-actions or non-actions by the SaneStates.
Absence of such Extreme Rationality, states, like peopel, are prone to make massive errors and pay the price for it.

Paks need to understand, especially YoungPaks, that Pakistan, as InheritorState, is in Recovery and requires time still to become a Great Regional Power.
Our Decline started some two plus centuries ago.

And when Decline sets in... it follows its course. It does extract its pounds of Flesh. We should know.. we are still paying in PakBlood and so are PakKashmiris. Long road to Freedom.

It is also imperative to understand that Pakistan at 75 has taken a very long time to be here... being a Weaker and Smaller State than the Enemy and its Friends/Backers... we had to join alliances out of Weakness and need to Survive!
Easy it is for some to criticise on internet about Pak's Choices of the Past and Present... but all those choices have been Choices of Survival. @peagle

Hindsight is a privilge for commentators and critics... but decisions are made in the moments if there is No Long Term Plan of a State. It is what it is ... and this Fact doesn't bother about Morality or Honesty or Ethics.
Neither does it care for lamentations.

The Ugly Truth is that we are a Defeated Order in the Subcontinent and Pakistan is a Miracle to behold...

The Very Creation of Pakistan was the First Step in OurRecovery.
Having a State of our own has enabled us to protect OurTehzeeb and OurIdentity.
Yes, we have a lot of demons in our garden or front yard... but we are a State nevertheless... just have a look at the 'Indian' muslims. Nothing further to add here.

We need to visit and revisit, again and again, the Original, Natural... purposed Map of Pakistan.
And when the Meaning sets in .. it becomes abandently clear that why the British could not allow for such a State to come into being.

Please, YoungPaks, do remember that Quaid e Azam R.A. was against the devisions of Bengal and Punjab on the basis of religion..but the Congress of the good Indians wanted it.
They needed MassGenocide as first step their Recovery. Without the blood of million plus muslims their Order couldn't begin... and it was War.

The TotalWar for the Creation of Pakistan
costed Million+ Pak lives ... but the Benefit is Pakistan at 75... giving us OurLand so that we can have The Privilge to criticise Pakistan and PakState...because it is Ours!!!

From our Day 1 till today we are under attack.
Our existence is a threat to the IndianOrder simply because we represent and inherit the Old Order of 1000yrs.

The HybridWar on Pakistan
is not new.. it started even before Pakistan came into being @N.Siddiqui @Ace of Spades @M. Sarmad the Cleansing of Muslims from Jammu to Utrakand is yesterdays news.
So this Non-Kinetic Indian Doctorine is not a new thing @PanzerKiel @Signalian @HRK
Even now there is a thread on 10 PakArmy men killed by the Indians via their terrorist pets.
This is just daily addition to 80k PakLives and more billions to the incurring Costs for the PakState i.e Paks who pay for it. APS.

The day Paks or PakState forgets to repay the Debt of APS
... will be day Pakistan has accepted the IndianOrder.

And let us abuse any naivete here... even if Pakistan accepts the IndianOrder like BD it is not going to be enough. Rather it would be an inducement for the good Indians to impose their will more harshpy.
And frankly, why not? Isn't it the purpose of Vicotry?

Till today Pakistan has fought and won all Battles against the IndianOrder in the ArmedConflict Vector.
71 was a fluke and result of insanity and vulgarities of Pak politicos and drunk generals... we had decided long before to part ways with the BDs... lethargy has consequences.
So let the BDs and the good Indians claim that as victory. It has ZERO impact on Pakistan.

Since, 1948 till the current agreement on CeaseFireLine all ArmedConflicts have resulted in nothing that could change the status quo on this FrozenWar between the Two Orders.

There has been No War between Indias and Pakistan. One if fully aware of the implications of such a statement. Nevertheless!

Indians have been unable to impose their Order on us and we are NOT in a position to impose OurOrder on them. The UglyTruth.

But the FrozenWar can not always remain frozen ... A TotalWar on all Vectors is as real as Pakistan. Neither Pakistan nor India can escape it.
The longer it takes for this War to Unfreez the Desructive it shall be. Piling up weapons for what?
Peace is only won when one Order can become pervailant.

That is Essence of Peace. Anyhting else is Rainbows and unicorns... @StormBreaker

This brings us to identifying the Vectors of Destruction imposed on Pakistan.

Please, consider that Quantification of Accumlated Destruction is a challenge in itself and requires a Substative Framework to start compilying data as @SQ8 knows far too well. However, Quantification of Destruction is imperative. Without it understanding the Consequences/Cost of TotalWar is impossible. It should be Quantified in Gold!

The Economist's
estimation $200+Bln as Cost of Pak's War on Indian Terrorism in OurLand was a snapshot of that moment i.e. till that date. It failed to factor in the ensuing and subsequent costs, including impact and quantification of loss of life of bread-winner on left-behind widows and orphans... @SIPRA

It might appear dark, apathetic or insensitive...but human life is perfectly quantifiable.. just look at the insurance modelling... will rob anyone of their vague notions... not all humans are equal in quantifications... Woke or Not to Woke is irrellevant as it is fake @OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ

Now the Vectors of Destruction then... (these Vectors will be explored later in detail with welcome contribution of the ThinkingHeads of Paks on PDF)


1. Identity Vector
The Idea of Pakistan
is based on the Inheritence of PakCivilisation i.e. Two Nation Fact presented by the Original MuslimLeague and successfully championed by Quaid e Azam R.A. in accordance with the Vision of Allama Iqbal R.A.
Both the Great Muslims of their time.. and nemesis of FazoolMullahMafia.

The good Indians attacked this Civilisation/Identity Vector long before Pakistan came into being...
Ghandi's visit to KPK and him being stoned by OurPashtoons there is still great memory.
But lets not forget that the then KabulRegime tried to stir EthnoNationalism in OurPashtoonBelt.... and we can still see their remenants..though greatly reduced now.
PTM came and went... and a new PTM shall come and go as well. TTP is not a religious outfit but an armed variant of the PTM as we all know.
Talibans on OurFence. Reality check??

Similarly the BalochEthnoNationalism was/is financed by the good Indians and some borthers... during the Soviet times and recently during the American times... and of course, still financing them.

And there are the waderas... sain te sain.. sain da kutta vi sain.
Oh those glorious years of SindhuDesh... JaiSindh was all the rage. Money talks. Pay to Play EthnoNationalists. Just wonderful.
Even the all-to-blame-for Punjabis of NarcoTerroristLeague came up with slogans to wake up the Punjabis...jab Punjabi jab.. terri pag te lag gaya dagh. Fun never stops here.
Of course, how to forget the legendary Kalia of Londonistan. LingoFacists to add to the mix.

Now it is easy to play the Victim here. And Playing Victim shall Add Cost to Pakistan in this TotalWar. We don't have the luxury to do that.

That the good Indians wish to exploit and hire for-rent-terror-outfits or invest in political families/dynasties is FairGame as it is TotalWar.

Why wouldn't an Enemy exploit our internal fissures?

It is to be expected and all we can do is not offer Opportunities.

How halirous this is that a major Dam got undammed because some ethnofacist party member had a factory or something there... Ridiculous but true.
And why wouldn't the good Indians pay such people?
Isn't it Cost Effective for them?

Regardless of the above high level description... Paks remain Paks and the Idea of Pakistan has a Pull that is subliminal... even spiritual.
Yes, cynic has the right to see things through his/her lens. And it is valuable to have such views.

Now when we come to the Real meat of this Vector we need to Quantify the Loss to Pakistan when all the above are accumlated.
Just have a look at Karachi that should form the TrueBaseline in Quantification of Loss to Pakistan.
When we see Karachi as a Battleground ... then my dear Paks, have we won or lost?
Yes, we need to factor in the PPP's facist policies of quotaz and ChinaCutting by all the card-bearing memebers of the CriminalEnterprise. Surely, PDF has enough TTz to Quantify the Net Loss using Karachi as Baseline. Waiting for it.

And since Pakistan neither has the Resources nor do we have the inclination to affect similar courtesy to the good Indians in the Identity Vector... our Benefits have been none!

PakKashmiris
are in Struggle on their own despite the sold-out IOK politicos... and Mushy proved to be 'good guy' and fenced the CeaseFireLine... it is Stupid to call it LoC.

Fleatingly one would draw attention to the glorious SecterianFunk. Loyalists of Persians and Saudis... and that is that. Not going further than this. This too needs to be quantified in terms of Loss to Pakistan.

2. Economic Vector

When OurLand came up as a map on the atals we had No Money to run the nascent PakState. The good Indians withheld OurMoney to kill our statehood in infancy, courtesy Nehru!
YoungPaks must recall that it was Paks who left their homes for OurLand gave money to treasury to run the state.

We had NOTHING. Just land. IMF is our phraand!

Yes, we have had and still do... so many challenges that running the PakState and providing BasicServices to Paks is a Huge Challenge... but again we don't have the luxury to play the Victim.

It is instructive to note that China was far poorer and hungerier back then and all the way to the early 80s. They had a National Plan and we don't. That is why China is Doing the CPEC and not us. Something to ponder about. @vi-va @Shotgunner51

True that the Two AfghanWars have costed us an arm and a leg... and true too that we had No Choice in the matter but to live with the Costs and Consequences the best way we can.

But neither the IMF nor the WorldBank Forced us to NOT have an Economic/Industrial GamePlan i.e. LongTerm Plan divided into FiveYearPlans... eating an elphant with a spoon. And we hear slogans about the ChinaModel of Development. Stupid to say the least.

Once again let us thoroughly abuse this notion. Only China can/could have ChinaDevelopmentModel. None else can.
If someone suggests so then they lack both information and knowledge about the Nature of China. Even in the last years of QingDynasty the imperical court was sending the Chinese to study the American railways. And now if they have the most miles of railtracks of highspeed railways.. it is because they are studious and goal oriented. Call it ConfucianEthics.. call it genetics... it is what it is.

Frankly, most of our loss in this Vector is our own lack of long term planning and defining OurPlace in the World. How do we percieve ourselves?

That the good Indians and Phraandz have kept us in FATF greyzone.. is totally understandable. Again why would an enemy allow you to breath??

The suggestion or oration about we cann't go to war because of poor economy is laughable at best and criminal at worst. @ps3linux
And then there are lumanaries talking about pacifism because of economic realities... Is it acceptance of the IndianOrder? If so then come out a play... why eschew... Funk!

The UglyReality is that to be truly Viable PakState needs to have $1Bln per million Paks in the Reserve. This is MinimumRequirement! And it is so bloody doable that current state of affairs, though understandable as legacy effect, is scary!

So if India is apparently winning in EconomicVector of TotalWar on Pakistan... can we blame them? All we can do now is have an EconomicPlan... choose a DevelopmentModel and stick with it. SouthEastAsia is not descended from Heavens... same brown mass as us.

We need to win this ... we have no other Choice!

3. Diplomatic Vector
60s Pakistan is Gone.
The sooner we accept it the better it is for us. Pakistan then was an Economic and Industrial Power compared to our 'brotherly countries'. And that gave us Diplomatic Leverage ... of course, the alliance with the Yanks did help a bit too. But let us not forget 1962, 1965, 1971 and all the way to Kargil. Let us not forget the IndianBias in the CombinedWest.

Once again... YoungPaks need to revisit the history of the dismanteling of the Ottomans and why Paks Original Map was a no-no for the GlobalEmpire. Has anything changed in that equation?

The Rise of China
is benefitial to the Chinese first and farmost. It does give us breathing space.. considering that China has used its VetoPower to shield us in the UNSC and helped us with FATF along with Turkiye and Malaysia.

But it does show us our DiplmaticStrength... lack thereof actually.

And if India has leveraged its position/existence as a power to Keep Pakistan Down and China Out in the Subcontinet for the GlobalEmpire... then can we blame them. Enemy is expected to utilise everything to its advantage.

There is NO IslamicWorld. There are countries/states which happens to bear the name muslim... but there is no such thing as IslamicWorld. Yes, there is OilRichArabWorld and then there is Mughreb i.e NorthAfrica and some African countries with muslim majority.
Muslims of SouthEastAsia are nationalists first. A Reality we need to absorb.

The outcome of the SecondAfghanWar is not there yet. It would be diplomatic blunder of highest order to conclude that India is out of Afghanistan or CentralAsia. They are in SCO and have a deal with Russia and Iran to build a corridor through Iran and CaspianSea.

The Monkey was working in Chabhar should we forget ... and Persians fashion themselves after their ancient ancestors!

Therefore, let us accept OurWeakness and Baseline OurCondition so that we can have a Clear DiplomaticBattle Plan.

In case of ArmedWar no brother or friend is coming to our aid... and everyone will side with India even when they commit WarCrimes... as in IoJK so would be in Actual TotalWar.

Starting from such point is imperative in planning WarScenarios.

Just as Reality Check: Why would China want to help us in OurWar?

4. Armed Forces Vector

Of all branches of PakArmedForces PNS' coming of Age is the most welcome sight. OurFleet is shapping up nicely. Still a long way to go to become a RealNavalPower in AfroAsianRegion...but good development all around.

In terms of ArmedConflict the Reality is we are a DefensiveForce. Yes, there are Offensive-Defence elements within OurCapabilities but we are NOT in position to wage an OffensiveWar or War of Conquest against the Enemy. It is UglyTruth. We better accept it.

SwiftRetort was magnificent display of the above. And that is that. We need to forget it and move on.

The Purpose of OurArmedForces is to Deny the good Indians from imposing IndianOrder on Pakistan.
Liberation of IoJK
is a complex affair where China is the DecidingFactor. From GHQ to any analyst worth a read knows this. Political slogans are cheap and easy.

PakArmedForces are the Tip of Spear where body of the Spear is PakNation.
This is vitally important that YoungPaks understand this.
PakArmedForces is us and not some alien entity...even though none of this person's chacha, mama or dada was/is in the PakArmedForces... despite this the Ownership is claimed and cherrished.. hence, the desire/demand of Excellence from OurForces!

Till date the good Indians have FAILEd to break the Tip of OurSpear and that comes from the Idea of Pakistan and its Life and Resilience. Something to ponder upon by uniformed and un-uniformed alike!

Yes, OurArmedForces have made tons of mistakes and blunders... and many of decisions are frankly stupid... but overall we are NOT in bad shape.
Of many expectations is one that we NEED to become self-reliant and this has to be One of OurStrategicGoals...
Frankly, there needs to come a stop soon for buying complete systems from even China.. regardless, how helpful they have been or friendly terms of purchases.

It is deliberate attempt from this person to avoid the technical aspects or asset quality/ratio whence compared to the good Indians... simply, because one lacks knowledge and deems essential to take a student posture here.
Surely, we have Paks here who can offer excellent Quantitative and Qualitative Analysis of Strengths and Weakness of PakArmedForces.

For now we can be assured that the good Indians are not in a position to impose their Order on Pakistan. How long will it last depends on us Paks and NOT the good Indians!!!

Two Scenarios:

If the Observation is correct and there is a FrozenWar between India and Pakistan then it becomes obvious to frame WarScenarios in which such an Unfreezing can happen.

For the sake of discussion and exploration its evident that extremes positions in WarGaming take first row. Everything else is variation of these two. One doesn't have to be a general to understand this simple FACT.

Scenario 1:

Pakistan fails to course correct in Socio-Economic Vectors resulting in fragile Diplomatic Strength and less developed ArmedForces.

The Political Families further destablise OurLand and demand that Pakistan become a Confederation which essentially Pakistan has become since the 18th Amendment. Having no Financial stake in Pakistan the CompradorElite starts bagging the money.
No MarshalLaw can be imposed neither there is a clear PoliticalAthourity to affect an National Emergency.

Also, the CombinedWest has imposed massive SanctionsRegime as Punishment for Pakistan joining fully the BRI. HyperInflation and all that jazz.

India does a FalseFlag and blames it on Pakistan. The CombinedWest already primed to the 'defanging' of Pakistan... starts a media campaign.

NATO moblises all its naval strength in the AfroAsianOcean with the USN in the lead... threatening with NuclearStrikes if PakArmedForces were to use StrategicAssets. Green signal to India to move in.

This time, however, India doesn't amass troops on the border but goes for DecapitationStrike with Brahmos and the lot. The Indian strike is so massive that it not only destroys military instillations but also the civilian i.e. State Infrastructure. The goal being destroying the Functioning of the PakState on every level.

India doesn't move in to capture territory. But keeps the pressure for the disintegration of Pakistan into smaller units. The good old BloodBorder dreams!

Scenario 2:

Pakistan has course corrected and has built both the civilian and military strength. Also, Pakistan possesses ICBMs and has strategic assets above 200 with varrying yields.

The CriminalEnterprise is defanged and made impotent. A new, PanPakistan, political force has matured and enjoys human resources of professional quality to manage the economy and industerialisation. Overall Socio-Economic Indicators are condusive for Pakistan to be a Factor in the ThirdActorDynamics of the ME and Capabilites of Deterence in AfroAsianOceanRegion.

In this Scenario Pakistan does the same as India but only focusing on the BufferZone Destruction i.e. areas bordering Pakistan/HindiBelt and Bombay.

After the First Massive Strike Pakistan is already positioned for the SecondStrike with strategic assets primed and ready.

Pakistan pervails without massive capturing of IndianTerritory. The goal of destroying economic and military capabilities is achieved. IoJK is liberated.

Pakistan does incur damages too but nothing fatal.

The Strategic Objective of Creating BufferZone states is achieved with Sikhs given a choice of freedom.


In both senarios Pakistan depends on its own Zoray e Bazoo and neither on brothers nor on friends.

The outcomes of both scenarios will determine which Order pervails in the subcontinent and another war doesn't happen for a long long time.

Its instructive to note that Pakistan CanNOT afford to loose the TotalWar. Simply because if we loose we cease to exist. Both Afghanistan and Persia will have their pound of flesh from our body in case of defeat.

Pakistan is Tounge Leaving among Teeth for the past 75 years.

Our StrategicGoal has to be to change this equation to our benefit.


Mangus

After Thoughts:

It is quite true that the Vectors are not fully detailed and are generic. However, that is the intention to start a discussion. It is also true that the TwoScenarios appear to be too simplistic and don't involve the overall GlobalStruggle in the MulitpolarDynamics.
This is necessary to StressTest Pakistan's Ability to Pervail. Again we do NOT have the luxury to loose a war. India can loose all the BufferZone and still remain functional as a state. We can not.

Furthermore, one is fully aware that the Vectors of War are lightly touched and are more like place holders at first sight. It is understood that the each Vector has its Siblings and all have Qualities... and each Quality have its Atributes and each Atribute has different Aspects.

Modelling a TotalWar is long and expansive excercise. Hopefully, thinkers on PDF will contribute and remdy this.

Drawing Conclusions already is a great temptation but one should avoid it in the early stages of WarGaming and let the Scenario play out first.

It is Clear as PakSun what Pakistan needs to do.


@jaibi @The Eagle dear Paks, kindly, let this thread remain in this section... given the subject matter one expects it to die a quick death! Thankyou!!!

Good to see you back, I have been outta here for sometime was busy in writing my own books and the fact that economy and finance are my prime interest area, but I couldn't add any value on this board in the presence of much more learned people who could copy every news out there on the internet and create a thread out of it.

Let me get my head straight and then I will get back. Best of luck and health my friend.
 

Mangus Ortus Novem

SENIOR MEMBER
Jun 7, 2008
2,997
186
32,237
Country
Netherlands
Location
Pakistan
You know, I think we are not as bad as we think. Strategic thinking is for the great powers, for lesser beings, it is about making do with the situation you have, and adjusting to your ground realities.


PakBrother mine,

Allow me to disagree with you.

A State that wishes to survive and thrive needs to Think Strategically and Plan its Policy accordingly. Otherwise, no State ever rises....
The great powers don't become great overnight.. it takes StrategicThought and long efforts accordingly that makes them great as outcome!
Europeans became global power by thinking ahead and fashioning themselves as such...long before the sailed out to discover/conquer the 'new worlds'.

Because the CriminalEnterprise has eaten our flesh and thrown our bones to bleach in the sun... doesn't mean that we cann't Think ahead Strategically.

The Idea of Pakistan
demands that we Think and Think longterm framing our policies to achieve Our Place in the World.

As the Old World Order comes to an End... we need to capitalise on this 'DisorderPhase' and shape the environment around us that is Conducive to PakPositiveGrowth and enhancing OurPosition in the New Oder of the World.

No Multipolar World can be stable without Pakistan becoming one of the Pole in it..albiet within our current circumstance might appear to the PakNegative people as bleak.

The BattleGround has been Pakistan for more than 40+yrs... latest physical occurance in OurBalochistan. We lost OurSoldiers!

Hence, it is imperative... that we Think Strategically to make sure that the BattleGround is not in the Heartland Pakistan.
Of course, Our enemies won't want that and would like to continue this War of Terror on Pakistan as this is most CostEffective tool for them.

Without removing this BattleGround from Pakistan we cann't truly become a GeoEconomic Centre for Eurasia...which we must!

You did mention about NK. It won't collapse simply because it is a kind of GreatWall of China against Barbarians... though we can utilise the bonanza even now!

@OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ I agree with your Observations but given the CriminalEnterprise has been using Pakistan as a Colony...being a CompradorElite... we have a long battle ahead for True Independence of Pakistan.

The Idea of Pakistan is a terrifying Idea for OurEnemices and 'brothers' alike.

In the PowerArchitecure of the GlobalDomminance... a Strong, Stable and Prosperous Pakistan is a Tipper of Scales... YoungPaks need to understand this!

EmergingPakistan will shape the Dynamics of Eurasia and we do see that EurasianPowers need Pakistan and are doing everything to make us join them.

Yes there is going to be enormus pressure and some... but we remain an Eurasia country... Eurasia ends in Pakistan afterall!


Mangus
 

Mangus Ortus Novem

SENIOR MEMBER
Jun 7, 2008
2,997
186
32,237
Country
Netherlands
Location
Pakistan
Cui bono?

@peagle meri jaan, once again allow me to pose the same question:
What is going to be effect of Uko-Rus War on Pakistan?

We need to study all three phases of UkrainianWar ...
starting from 2013 to 2014...
and of course, from Oct2021 to the actual Russian onslaught ...now about 5 days old.

Perhaps, it is not going to be 7DaysWar... might be 4Weeks plus War...

Even before this mini-war began... we already had - a Winner,
- a Loser
- and a BigQuestionMark...

I still maintain that War is Stupid and Only Stupid want War... but then Humanity is what it is... and War is hardwired into the DNA.... from senseless violance on the streets to organised violence... war is there because Humanity is Dark @SIPRA

We need to read and study every leaf of UkrainianCrisis so that PakState could be able to avoid danger and manage crisis/threats.

The Engineering of UkrainianCrisis and subsequent RussianInvasion is already becoming a Classic!!!

It was designed with great care and foresight... the planning, execution and then the Delivery... is a continuation of the Method perfected since WorldWar1...
History buffs need to dig the squence of events and planning of that MassMurder i.e. War!!! @Indus Pakistan

Now quickly to the Victor:

The US led Empire
is the Victor without any single shred of doubt!

The StrategicObject is achieved with some bonus...

- Russia is Out... again!
- Gemany is Down... again!


A Strategy is good if it works.

A Stragey is Brilliant if it works effortlessly with minimum expenditure i.e. if it is Efficient!

The US led PsyOp ...with relentless 'The Russia is Going to Invade' ... this month to this week to today... ad nauseum...

From MSM to Pentagon to WhiteHouse to Whitehall to 10 DowingStreet...

For months... the high pitch... non-stop... multilayered PsyOp of goading, daring and poking of Putin and Russia... was ridiculed, laughed at but it didn't stop... rather it gained more pace...
Blinken's UNSC speech/message... of saying... look the ast time of WMD-in-a-Bottle was different and this time... it is different... as 'we are here to stop a war...not start one'....

This relentlessness was directed at both the Russians and the Germans...
NewEuropeans were already onboard... but then Macron too came onboard...i.e OldEurope fell inline!

BoJo's attempts of copying Churchill was a delight to watch... though a failure in performance....
Nevertheless, BritishPM and his key Cabinet members were in full gear...
Ms. Truss, notwithstanding geography, went to Moscow and warned the Russian in their own town... of 'Consequences'.... @Deino

All this a very well Scripted and Sequenced PsyOp with its OpeningAct... cookies baked by Ms. Nunland for the MiadanLiberators...

The StrategicObjective as pronouced by Ms. Nunland ' Fxxck the EU' is indeed achieved.

EU is royally Phaaked!


Any chance of EuropeanSovereignity is flushed down by the RussianInvasion... everyone is on the SanctionRussia race to finish... @Slav Defence @Reddington

No more chance of Euro challenging the Dollar... because now the RussianPlan of trading in Euro is Nunlanded.

The Loser:

EU states now have to hoard Dollar for our energy needs... relieving the Fed enormusly.

Germany has effectively accepted this fate...by cancelling NordStream2 and increasing its defence spending... guess where they are going to buy their weapons from... same goes for the rest of EU members of NATO... spending on AmericanWeapons...

The Russian footprint in EuropeanSpace, for now, is in negative territory than just being Zero! @Ace of Spades

The US led Empire did all this without loosing a Single American or 'allies' soldier!

This is StrategicAchievement! @dbc

The BigQuestionMark:

The Russians late last year deliver their Ultimatum.
And of course, declared that should their SecurityConcerns weren't met they will resolve to MilitaryTechnicalMeasures.

They did their MilitaryExercises from Balarus to the border near Ukraine.
This, of course, after the successful coutner to the ColourRevolution attempt in Khazakistan.

Tthis time, however, the Americans remain dismissive of the RussianUltimatum...giving rather vauge assurances of talks in the future... but continuing their Back-to-Future Russian-Are-Coming narrative non-stop.

This was/is a brilliant execution of goading, daring and pushing for RussianInvasion... remember those 'FalseFlag' warnings... one has to laugh at it...consider WMD-in-a-Bottle routine of the recent past... regardless, the US led Empire took away any options for Russia to employ...

And throwing the WinterOlympics2022 into the mix... Killing two birds with one shot!

Russia didn't invade Ukraine during the Olympics... call it courtesy to the PRC or whatever.

Some were quick to paint that the RussianInvasion has broken up NATO and a NewWorldOrder is born... NOT So Fast, my dear!

5Days and counting... @StormBreaker

Demilitarisation
and DeNazification is the stated objective of the Russians... with added bonus of Ukraine NEVER to be part of NATO.

One thing is for sure... Ukraine is not going to be Directly part of NATO in the near future...but NATO has agreed to send weapons... and the Icing-on-the-Cake is that Germany, the most pacifist country, has announced to send GermanWeapons plus famous Stingers to Ukraine... 1stAghanWarMemories... those slippery Stingers!!!

People do talks/write about War in Europe after 2ndWorldWar...but they do forget BosnianGenocide ...
Besides, what about wars in MENA and Asia... do the Lives of these people not Matter?
Obviously, NOT!

The PRC, so far, has walked a tight rope because of the pending Sino-European-Investment-Agreement...
And those who haven't seen it yet... this is the SecondStrategicObjective of the US led Empire... killing it that is! @Shotgunner51

The sudden love for ...MuslimsLivesMatter..in Xinjiang... should abuse any innocence regarding the GrandStrategy!

The Chinese know this.
The European know this.
But knowing is not much of a help if an Actor can't Act in the StrategicSpace...

Throwing Taiwan into the mix is a handy tool... but for now Taiwan is going to be put on low flame till the EuropeanTheatre is fully resolved for the US led Empire!

After that it is Taiwan's turn to 'join NATO' a la Ukraine.
Evil-Chinese-Are-Going-to-Invade FreedomLoving Taiwanese is going to be new vouge!

The ChineseStartegy of Non-Kinetic Reunification shall be put to test in not so distant future...

It is rather simple... the US led Empire needs to Crush the NewEra of MultipolarWorld or the Dollar dies... which mean NATO dies...which means no money for GlobalBases... which of course, means... NoMore GlobalHegemon.

DoMore for the US led Empire!
@SIPRA

In other words the US led Empire has made an AgressiveMove to dislodge the EmergingSinoCenteric AsianOrder in Ukraine.

It is Not the End of Beginging:

The above is what the current available data is telling us. It is by no means a fait accompli ... rather it is situation resultant from the OpeningMove by the US led Empire...

Ukraine, Taiwan, Quad and AUKUS were the EnablingFactors arranged carefully by the US led Empire... so that the OpeningMove can have maximum Effect.

A lot is riding on the RussianGambit in Ukraine.

If Russia is able to achieve its stated Objective of Demilitarisation and Denazification i.e. A RussianProtectrate in Ukraine with not-too-much-cost.. and quickly, then the Sino-Russian-Axis will able to Counter the OpeningMove by the US led Empire.

If the Russia is unable to achieve a SwiftVictory then its Credibilty and the Potency of its MilitaryTechnicalMeasures will come into question.
Doing a Syria is one thing but doing a Ukraine is totally different BallGame!

Russia being open to talks with UkrainianGov without any pre-condicitons is instructive. However, it would be foolish to draw any conclusions from it at this stage.

Both the Russians and the Chinese had enough time to WarGame and prepare for the US led Empire's OpeningMove...
Therefore, the Sino-Russian-Axis is expected to be prepared for the CounterMove.
The QuestionMark is the Effectiveness of the CounterMove.

For now the US led Empire has its Cake and is Eating...

EuropeanUnion is, indeed, Fxxkd or Nunlanded... both would do!

@peagle meri jaan, I did post the video of the good IndianMedia with a forethought... despite having the fun factor.

Please, note that the non-stop coverage by the GodiMedia of the UkraineCrisis and particularly, Framing of the Russians as BadRussians and the Ukrainians as GoodUkrainians... to top it all... your favourite... has been calling Putin the NewHitler... with all the qued personal history to build up a narrative.
This is Quading for those who think that Quad is Dead!
One has to wonder what has India to do with NATO/EuropeanAffairs.. regarding its net capabilities...that is.
But the Non-stop Godi/IndianMedia siding with NATO, just like DW, BBC, FranceWorld and everyone and their NATO-aunties... tell us something very clearly @PanzerKiel

Before we can draw any conclusions to the FirstMove and CounterMove by the two sides... we need to wait for the Russian performance in Ukraine.

In an absurd way the Global Polarity will be decided on the UkrainianPolishBorder...

The Consequences for Pakistan are dear, lasting. QuadingBrigade is sitting right next to OurBorder.. it tells us something.

It is a long game... rather its the GreatestGame and Pakistan is the Heartland...

And this GreatestGame has come to our town now.

Wonder why Pakistan has been accelerating in operationalising J10CP, SH artilery, PNS going full sail on ships and subs...

Pakistan is preparing for the TotalWar on Pakistan.

Our FifthColuminsts are in full swing... we don't have a Single Media outlet with PakPositivism... and MarasiMedia is doing whom's bidding? Point to ponder...

Mulana aa raha hai...

Noora aa raha hai...

Barash hotta ha to pani atti hai... aa raha hai...

LongMarch aa raha hai...


Something is truly off here... and HamidMir is back on TeeVee... SoftStates don't survive in this GreatestGame!


Mangus
 

Reddington

FULL MEMBER
Feb 22, 2019
1,043
20
2,882
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
We need to read and study every leaf of UkrainianCrisis so that PakState could be able to avoid danger and manage crisis/threats.
Indeed. Here are some lessons we can learn from this war.
But imo, the biggest lesson from this war is that if you don't take the war inside your enemy's territory, then the war will be fought inside your territory and the flames of war will reach your homes.
Another lesson is to prepare for urban warfare. As the future wars will be fought in urban areas and the civilians have to fight alongside military in urban areas.

I still maintain that War is Stupid
Disagree with this. Wars are fought to achieve political objectives. When diplomacy (soft power) fails to achieve political objectives, hard power has to be used. Without the threat of hard power, diplomacy won't work.

Anyways, these are still early days into this war to really determine who might come out unscathed from this war as a winner.
It is a long game... rather its the GreatestGame and Pakistan is the Heartland...
"Everything under heavens is in utter chaos; the situation is excellent."
 

Reddington

FULL MEMBER
Feb 22, 2019
1,043
20
2,882
Country
Pakistan
Location
Pakistan
But imo, the biggest lesson from this war is that if you don't take the war inside your enemy's territory, then the war will be fought inside your territory and the flames of war will reach your homes.
Another lesson is to prepare for urban warfare. As the future wars will be fought in urban areas and the civilians have to fight alongside military in urban areas.
Another lesson which is not that much discussed is that in the modern wars, the one who strikes first has a massive massive advantage. The first one to strike has the initiative as well as the surprise. Russians with massive strikes on Feb 24 managed to take out the military infrastructure, command, control and intelligence apparatus.
@Mangus Ortus Novem
 

Mangus Ortus Novem

SENIOR MEMBER
Jun 7, 2008
2,997
186
32,237
Country
Netherlands
Location
Pakistan
Another lesson which is not that much discussed is that in the modern wars, the one who strikes first has a massive massive advantage. The first one to strike has the initiative as well as the surprise. Russians with massive strikes on Feb 24 managed to take out the military infrastructure, command, control and intelligence apparatus.
@Mangus Ortus Novem


My very dear Pak,

First the most important:

Yom e Pakistan sub ko mubarak ho!

My health has become very Nakhraybaz so I don't have much energy most of the time to post. Though I do try to read.

Secondely, I was waiting for the right time to post something of value... at least I try to. Hence, the delay in replying your post. Appologies!

As the NWO is unrevalling before our eyes.. the New Order of the World is emerging... it is not there yet.
But its contours are there to be sensed... though it would be hasty to jump to conclusions just yet.

The appearance and rather clear, productive address by the Chinese State Councilour Wang Ye at the OIC Summit was instructive.
It bodes well for Pakistan and PakKashmiris...

The Chinese abhore impulsiveness or emotioanlismoz... so we can be certain that Mr. Wang Ye was stating the Chinese StatePolicy regarding Pakistan.

It was sublte, yet clear. The message is of lasting effect!

What I sensed (and I could be totally wrong here!) that the PRC is against RegimeChange in Pakistan i.e. No ColourRevolutions ... be it HalwaRevolution supported by MarasiMedia or some Pink/Blue/GreenRevolution.

The PRC needs a stable, prosperous and relatively IndependentPakistan.
Anything else is inviting wolves through the main gate... and back to the dog-house for 220Million Paks.

In other words, China is a Factor now in Pakistan's Internal Affairs.
So, instead of meeting 'Opposition' parties by some ambassadors or some combined letters... the Chinese have taken a considered and measured position without trampling on our BesiegedSovereignity.

Pakistan has been a BattleGround for more that 40yrs now... starting with pre-FirstAfghan KosharJihad till today's Rent-a-Terrorist attacks on OurArmedForces.

We need to see things in larger context and in correct perspective... so that we might be able to understand pervailing conditions better and remedy situation to the benefit of Pakistan.

Pakistan becoming a SoftState has been a decades long journey.. it didn't just happen overnight.
The Rot starts with minute mold in the basement!

I, for one, fully support a legal, non-Khottacracy, change of government which is good for Pakistan's Political Health.
That is to say:
Democracy sans Khottacracy/Lottacracy.

Therefore, if an oppsition moves in the best interests of Paks and the Sovereignity of Pakistan and legally remove a sitting government then NOTHING could be better and vital for Pak's National Intereests.

However, the current Majma of Khottacracy is anything but a RegimeChange attempt against the PakNational Interests ... rather it is in the interests of the CriminalEnterprise and its ForgeinBackers.

It is important that I bring to your attention my disgust with the Buzdarizmo imposed on the biggest province of Pakistan. As PaaJee @SIPRA shall confirm.

So, it has nothing to do with the incumbent GoP or its support but rather highlighting that the TotalWar on Pakistan has many facets which include Khottacracy and its enabler MarasiMedia.

A politically stable Pakistan can take bold decision which would benefit 220Million Paks and we would be able to regain OurSovereignity.... albiet step-by-step.

Of course, there is an obvious remedy to Khottacracy and its little pup MarasiMedia.
But this is such a terrifying thought that no politcal party in Pakistan has the guts to enact it. Not only, one does sense, political imposters but also the PakState is terrified of this.

Regardless, in OurWar of Survival this is the only path.
A journey that started in 1850 and had its First Milestone on 14 Aug1947... is still the Most Potent Force laying in latent form in the Heart of OurLand.

I am forced to conclude that this RegimeChange is NOT Made-in-Pakistan.

This current GoP has failed to take bold actions and its in-actions have been costly.
Call it incompetence, political paralysis due to minority government or whatever... Buzdarismo is unfogivable.
Despite this the current GoP is the Product-of-Pakistan after a very long time... i.e. without interferece from the known quarters.

We can say that its Paks' attempt to regain their Homeland from the OccupationalForces of the CriminalEnterprise for whom Pakistan is just a Colony... to plunder and 'rule'... not Serve!

Yes, a devasted economy and EconomicTerrorism (still unpunished, still flourishing!) has left the koffers of the PakState in deep red... and in this world, as always, weak get eaten. Period!

So, expecting miracles have not been the issue but Action against the CriminalEnterprise has been lacking... impotent really.
And for this both GoP and PakState are equally responsible.

There can never be Peace without Justice.

Muslihat only puts rubbish under the carpet where it festers further and becomes disease. The mold starts in the basement!

The sudden spike in Terrorism against Pakistan and PakArmedForces... along with the groundwork for the RegimeChange has been going on hand-in-hand... with MarasiMedia doing a daily blitzkrieng of FakeNews and Fasad.... thus priming the PakNation for instability and chaos...

It is too obvious to even mention....

Unless we dismantle the CriminalEnterprise our lot is not going to change regardless how many prayers we offer! ( I am sorry for saying this!)

My dear Paks forget that we had been neighbours with the USSR for decades... and the History of HybridWar on Pakistan is quite long and deep... and the same actors or better said rented-forces are active today which were on the pay-roll of the Soviets... they just changed camps... and went to sell their services to other buyers.

Both the Buyers and Sellers are known to the PakState.
So, what can one say in such a situation.???

The Destruction of Karachi started when ZAB became an aazab for Pakistan... the policies he introduced were/are the root-cause of the Destruction of OurEconomicHub.

And it is true that to Counter a BigMonster PakState created other Mini-Monsters who then turned into BigMonsters of today.

All these Nooraz, Fazluz or rest of the creatures are the result of not following the Idea of Pakistan... and no matter how much we try... we shall remain in the dog-house ... as long as the Latent Force is not awakened.

Please, do see that I understand that it is in the best interests of these CreatedMonsters and the CriminalEnterprise to NEVER let the LatentForce to Awaken... for whence it does... it will flush away every filth... in every corner of Pakistan.

You have been a keen observer and analyst of perailing situation for longer and better than I... hence, you know the ground realities far better than I ever could...
Please, do tell me whether the current Nizam, in its entirety, is compatible with the Idea of Pakistan or rather with the Progress of Pakistan.

Every two bit 'leader' becomes a SupremeLeader... MullahMafia threatens the PakState or inheritors of mere name become blackmailers of PakState and the very existence of Pakistan...
How long this can last?

As long as such a farce continues... Pakistan shall remain the Battleground and TotalWar on Pakistan shall continue!

When will this TotalWar stop?

The day that happens the GeoEconomic and GeoPolitical landscape of Eurasia will go through a massive Shift... towards EurasianCentury!

Of course, we view the war in Ukraine through PakLens since we are on PDF... supposedly, OurOwn Forum!!!

I still believe that Russia failed miserably in countering the US PsyOp and fell into trap head first!

The US has won a StartegicVictory in divorcing EU from Russia and re-enforcing its Dominance on the EU.

Russia is Out. Again!

Germany is Down. Again!


For now the Media (including Indian... can you imagine!!!) will keep potraying BadRussian to the hilt and the Russian can kiss goodbye to re-entering EU for decades to come.

This StrategicVictory belongs to the US.

It doesn't matter that Ukraine will be crushed in the process and its statehood will become a burden on Eurolands for many decades... but it has served the US StrategicAgenda rather well.

All those cookies that Ms. Nunland backed in 2014 have borne fruits!

It was/is a truly strategic enterprise ... very well planned and extremely well executed.

Now coming to your contention of the FirstStrike and its benefits... I agree with you totally.

A FirstStrike is an extremely potent rather essential/critical component of WarFighting.
But the FirstStrike needs to make sure total decapitation of the opponent.

In Pakistan's context... Our FirstStrike has to be so massive that there is Nothing Conventional left for the enemy to respond to.
Otherwise, the conflict will be long drawn and Costly!

I have asked/requested the PDF resident experts to model the Cost of Destruction of Karachi... am still waiting.

Our PM should know his figures and be consistent in qouting them... as we cann't expect MarasiMedia to do anything remotely PakPositive.

The total loss to PakEconomy of the SecondAfghandWar has been far more that the Economist figure of $220Bln... it is the ensuing Costs that accumulate...

That is why we should build OurDefences based on our own production... just as China does... build our Capabilities in such a manner that we can Redue Cost... (yes, I do sound like a bean-counter... but War is all about Cost-n-Benefits).

So, yes... we must build First MassiveStrike Capabilities i.e. Military, Economic, Diplomatic and Industrial.

But first we need to make sure that the Battleground shifts away from Pakistan for good!

It has been too long and has costed us too much PakBlood and PakTreasure... I mean almost Half a Century .. is enough!!!

We know that our 'brotherly countries' see Pakistan as competitor... and a Strong, Prosperous and Stable Pakistan scares the nickers off them... hence, they shall continue their 'brotherly works'.... and if the good Indians help them achieve it... merrier it is.
Here I don't make a distinction... because this Secterianismo is nothing but an advancement tool for these regional pretenders.. where, in absence of the AwakendForce, good hearted Paks get beguiled and end up hurting ourselves!

I do oppose this Pan-Islamismo... there is NOTHING to be gained by this.

Our only Umah is 220Million Paks
... the rest is Diplomacy and Economics. Nothing else!

As I have tried to say... the first StrategicVictory belongs to the US in this Russo-Ukrainian conflict... but this is NOT the end of War.

We shall see increasing pressure on China. And one wouldn't be surprised to see another brilliantly crafted PsyOp directed at China a la Russia. @Shotgunner51

We already have a run of Sinophobia with Covid... and some of the good Indian media outlets are still framing Covid as ChineseVirus...

Here, I shall like to draw you attention to my thesis that the India is an ImperialCreation to:

Keep Pakistan down!

and

China Out!

My observation/contention has historic roots.. as the creation of this super-state and keeping it aflot has been a StrategicEffort from the Whitehall strategists... who saw to it that the Ottomans be dismantled.
And no ChallengerState could emerge from its ashes...

Same thing happened with Pakistan.

If you recall that the Quaid e Azam R.A was fundamentally against the partition of Punjab and Bengal... even our Elders had a very different Map of Pakistan in mind...
But then.. when you are Weak... you get Eaten!

$Trillions in aid and diplomatic support even in case of WarCrimes and CrimesAgainstHumanity in IoJK (100.000+ PakKashmiris in massgrave, 10.000 PakKashmiris women/girls gangraped by the indian army)...
No HumanRights warrior... no condemnation... NOTHING!

And the same Actors have the audacity to accuse China of MuslimGenocide... Funny this!

So, keeping Pakistan on slow boil is in strategic interests of 'brotherly countries' and their masters... for a long time.
The good Indians benefit from it and exploit it.. is understandable... why would a mortal enemy give us breathing space?

The good Indians have openly stated that they have a war-chest of $700mln to 'oppose' CPEC.. if that is not a blatant terror-funding then I don't know what could be... and we are in FATF!!!
(I believe it was their NSA who declared it rather triumply)

But as luck has it... a stable, strong and prosperous Pakistan is in China's Strategic Interests... and they have been consistent in their policy and support.
Of course, NO free lunches anywhere.
And why should it be?

An interesting observation/statement made by Mr. Wang Ye was that Pakistan must be able to choose the Development Path that fits Pak's NationalConditions...

This simple statement is quite valuable. This needs deep analysis!

We cann't copy/paste a model that highly developed socio-economic societies have taken Centuries to develop and deploy.
We simply cann't.
As it is not only against Nature but also unachievable for the pervailing conditions in OurLand where 25% (55Million that is) Paks live in abject poverty.

As MarasiMedia, getting fatter on the foreign grants, tell us daily about this SacredCow ...Khottacracy... is a lie!!!

The entire Nizam is rigged... and last 40years have created the intertiwned nods in this Network of the CriminalEnterprise.... where there are intermarriages ...from Bubucracy QabzaGroup to Judiciary to Politicos... even the CriminalEnterprise has tried to incorporate OurArmedForces...

I did make a calculation regarding the Strength of the CriminalEnterprise... though the data set is an educated guesstimation... but it does give us the Ratios at all levels of PakState and PakSociety.
Would be nice to have your feedback on that... Thread: Pak's CriminalEnterprise ... in PakPolitics section.


Now once again we need to see the Picture in its totallity and not just fragments...

So, please, allow me to Frame the Question:

What is Total Picture of Eurasia?

What is its NetWorth in Resources?

How Pakistan is Connected to Eurasian Picture?

Why a RegimeChange in Pakistan at this juncture necessary?

How ColourRevolution in Khazakistan is linked to Pak situation of these days?



Russia is NOT a European state nor it is part of EuropeanCivilisation.
Yes, they are 'white' and blue-eyed... but if the West considers Ukraine to be 'relatively civilised' what do you think they consider Russia to be?

The Failure of Russia
to affect Change in Kiev and not being able to demonstrate its MilitaryPower in the FirstWeek of this conflict exposes many things... which can have adverse effect on OurLand.

So, if Russia is able to split the current Ukraine into two and a half states and can get out of there without too much loss it will be Won-Battle... anything less will be total Failure!

And Failure has its Cost!

For now I am unable to draw conclusions regarding the Ukraine conflict... perhaps, it is better to wait for another month.
Yes, prediction business is sexy... and making grandios statements in such threads is all the rage... but I feel I am not qualified to comment more than my above observation.

But one thing is definitive:

The Results of Russo-Ukrainian War shall have deep impact on Pakistan.


To Victor the Spoils...

There is a Momentum of History in Acceleration ... and these things happening have an animus to them.

For now we have two states as the Gatekeepers of Eurasia.
Tukiye and Pakistan.
Both are Civilisational States.

Pakistan
is an AncientState and is the home of one of the most ancient Civilisation on the Planet.
Yet everything is latent!
Sleeping!

You know what Allam Iqbal R.A. had said about this slumber...
OurCivilisation is still Alive and well.. just dosing off... from CentralAsia to Ancient Summer... OurCivilisational footprints are everywhere... yet no Claimant?

What kind of Inheritors we are!!!


The ONLY thing that can stop for Pakistan to be BattleGround is PakPositiveNationalism.

We don't need MullahMaffia for Unity or Faith or Discipline... this assumption has created too many thugs and profiteers...
Time to dismantle MullahMaffia and their foreign funders for good!

PakPositiveNationalism is the LatentForce that gave Agency to the
Idea of Pakistan.. the same LatentForce that fought in 1857 ... if anyone doubts it then dig deeper in OurHistory... from Khyber to Chittagong... those who were hanged by the British were Muslims!

We were tied to the cannons and blasted!

it was PakPositiveNationalism that united every Pathan, Baloch, Kashmiri, Punjabi, Sindhi or Baltistani... from Christians to Hindus to, of course, Muslims of Pakistan woke to the Idea of Pakistan.

Our Order was Defeated but it NEVER Died.


The compulsions to Create the Bumb and todays great display is the result of this Latent PakPositiveNationalism.

And it scares the nickers off everyone...

NOT a single political party dare touch it.. because this pervailant Khottacracy is run as family affair... even Fazlu has his son primed for 'leadership'...

PakPositiveNationalism is demanding and unforgiving... whence it awakes... people will have to deliver according to the Idea of Pakistan ... and just some Milli Nagma won't do...

Those jumped in front of the tanks in Chawinda were high on PakPositiveNationalism ... RashidMinhas was high on it...

When I read comments from my dear Paks in PolitcalSection ... it saddens me.
Everyone is busy supporting one over the other... blind to the massive faults/crimes of their 'dear leaders' .... I could call it pathetic... but then I would be passing a judgement on my own... which I don't like!... Hence, Ijtinab!

The OIC made the useless soundbites and alot of photo-ops and hand-shakes... it is still a dead horse.

There is NO Muslim Block... Period!

The Sino-Pak Front
is squaring up to the challenge of managing this imperial experiment called 'India' ...
China more so that Pakistan. FACT!

In a way PMIK has a golden opportunity to use this RegimeChange exercise to Awaken PakPositiveNationalism... but it can't be just empty rhetoric... or sloganairing...

He has to understand the Depth and Breadth of PakPositiveNationalism...

A leader in Pakistan who truly understands the Essence of PakPositiveNationalism can Awaken this LatentForce and Unify the PoliticalLandscape like no-other ...

And NO... Nobody can be like Quaid e Azam R.A.

A Jinnah is born after many centuries...

We could call OurLand lucky if we can have someone 5% of the Calibre of Baba e Qom R.A.

Hum Pakistani hain

Pakistan hamara hae!


For now TotalWar on Pakistan continues... MarasiMedia is priming the PakNation for chaos and fasad... and PakState had decided to be neutral! Funny this!


Mangus

P.S. @Reddington yaar, should my health stop its nahraybazi... I shall attempt to define the Contours of PakPositiveNationalism... a massive undertaking for sure... but with your and others help we can develop the Framework!

@GlobalVillageSpace kindly do your work and try to be a creative force and help us with PakPositiveNationalism. You are media ...


@RescueRanger @HRK @ghazi52 @Windjammer @Slav Defence @Horus @WebMaster @PakSword @Signalian @PanzerKiel @Rashid Mahmood @Indus Pakistan @Mentee @Valar. @StormBreaker @The Eagle @LeGenD @Musings @peagle @newb3e @DESERT FIGHTER @vi-va @ps3linux @Ace of Spades @waz
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Top Bottom