I agree with your analysis, india will indeed be on the loosing side. However, for Pakistan the biggest factor would be economics. IMO, instead of looking for big scale war, Pakistan should exploit, sikhs in India, Muslim situation in India and make it very costly for Indian forces to stay in Kashmir. Once the internal rift increases further and thanks to RSS and modi, Pakistan will get far bigger benefits, not just Kashmir. For now Pakistan should focus on Afghanistan... and on some sort of security arrangement with China+turkey like nato...There's no denying that Pakistan lost 1971. In history, many renowned empires have lost wars and then won again.
The geography of Bangladesh with a six time bigger hostile land in between that was actively participating in conspiring against Pakistan, and the internal revolt meant that Pakistan lost even before the war started.
There is no shame in accepting the defeat and lets accept that India played well in fueling the communal riots in Bangladesh and was successful in seeding hate between two populations of a country.
An army can fight many times larger enemy without fear if the population is on its back. When a soldier sees love of people who are waiting for their soldiers to come back as victors, soldiers also put their lives at risk and do not hesitate in sacrificing it when needed. However, when a soldier sees hate in the eyes of a population which he is fighting for, he loses his will and strength to fight and just accepts the defeat. This is exactly what happened in 1971 when people didn't want to live with the western part and they didn't consider Pakistan army their own army. Our army was considered an occupying force by a big chunk of the population and there was a civil war going on. India fully took advantage (as it is in Indian nature to not leave such an opportunity.. they are also famous for backstabbing.. if anyone doubts this fact, just keep looking at Afghan situation.. India can accept Taliban government if Taliban throw a tiny bone to them).
That said, whether that defeat (which was more of a civil war than a one-to-one military conflict) didn't instill any fear in the hearts of Pakistanis. Why? because we still think it wasn't a conflict on equal footing.. Was India able to subdue Pakistan as a result of 1971 war? Could it stop Pakistan from becoming a nuclear power? Has India been able to control Kashmir movement and stop Pakistan from supporting Kashmiris? The answer for all these questions is a big "No".
In most part of last four decades, Pakistan got involved with another neighbor. There was a huge influx of refugees that put a dent on economy big time (and they are still here). On one side of the border, there was a hostile country that doesn't leave a single opportunity to harm us, on the other side we have two countries, one is continuously at war, and the other is under the strictest sanctions. Any country's economy is heavily dependent on the trade with its neighbors, the passages through those neighbors give way to trade with other countries too. Pakistan despite its amazing geography couldn't obtain any benefit due to wars, sanctions and hostilities around her. Result is that we lagged behind, but not by a huge margin. India, which hasn't faced any such issues should have been at least competing with China, but we see where India stands despite huge investments from the west. We can say that Indian performance is far from impressive.
Now is the opportunity for Pakistan to capitalize what India is going through.. just a Bangladesh like situation. If you see, Indian confidence is overflowing (same as in Pakistan before 1971).. This over confidence is the recipe for disaster.
If war breaks out tomorrow, internal civil situation in Kashmir may give us an opportunity of a lifetime.. specially when our synergy with China is at peak. We are getting a lot of military hardware from an emerging superpower and there is no fear of sanctions (that has always been the case with Pakistan while India enjoyed full access to Russian hardware). I don't usually talk about two front war, but the chances are bright that if war breaks out, for India, it will be a two front war in which it will lose Kashmir to Pakistan and China.
We have also not taken into account another actor in the region... Afghan Taliban. By nature, they are sympathetic towards oppressed Muslims all around the world. For them, politics doesn't exist and we have seen this in the last 20 years of conflicts. Good thing is that Taliban are fully in line with how Pakistan thinks.
So yes, India couldn't gain much after 1971s victory although it could have capitalized that. Next war will be an interesting war between the two nuclear armed nations and in my opinion, India has to lose a lot in that war.
@Mangus Ortus Novem @Blacklight @StormBreaker @Ace of Spades