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The time of political change is coming in Bangladesh

idune

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The time of political change is coming in Bangladesh
October 21, 2020In

The time of political change is coming in Bangladesh



Pinaki Bhattacharya
Bangladesh's inclusion in the Indo-Pacific Alliance has created the possibility of political change in Bangladesh. Before that, we need to know what is the Indo-Pacific Alliance and why?

On January 19, 2018, the Trump administration unveiled a new US defense strategy. The rise of China and Russia as enemies has been seen as a threat to US influence in the world. In the words of US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, "Fighting for power, not militancy, is now the main goal of US defense." This means that America has finally pulled out of that War on Terror strategy of war with the Muslim community. This strategy will work even if there is Trump, it will not stop even if there is not. The impact of elections or a change of leadership on US foreign policy is small. A significant part of Trump's defense strategy is to form alliances by bringing different countries around the world under their sphere of influence. The Indo-Pacific Alliance is the US sphere of influence for Bangladesh.

America wants Bangladesh in this alliance. The United States considers Bangladesh as a "key partner" in Trump's Indo-Pacific strategy. US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen E. Beagan, who is visiting Dhaka, said Bangladesh is at the center of the Indo-Pacific. And that is why I came to visit Bangladesh. Bangladesh's inclusion in this US alliance is very important. The United States will somehow include Bangladesh in the Indo-Pacific Alliance to protect its international political interests in the region.
America also wanted India subject to conditions. What is that condition? The two conditions are - if the Indian economy can be revived, and the second is that the present state of India must stop spreading anti-Muslim hatred in politics and parties and agree to build a plural society. Modi's government will never be able to fulfill these two conditions. Because fulfilling this condition means abandoning the name and politics of BJP-RSS.
What other important political changes have taken place in the region because of this Indo-Pacific alliance?
An important element of American policy since the first decade of this century has been the decision to see South Asia through the eyes of India. Especially in Asia, the so-called American security or America will look through the eyes of India. In other words, if India sees its own security interests, it will also see American security interests. What is this security interest? That security interest is the security interest of the War on Terror.
When India translates what it said to America at that time into our meeting language, it seems that we have been fighting this war on terror since 1947, look at Kashmir. Muslims want to make our country a land of terror, we have been fighting against it since 1947.
With the regional authority of the War on Terror in the hands of India, the US went to rescue the interests of 'stopping China'. In exchange for the watchdog of stopping China, he allowed India to indulge or indulge India in Asia's neighboring region. As a result, India has the opportunity to directly dominate Bangladesh.
In Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, just like in India, adopted the policy of War on Terror in the context of Bangladesh. They said that this Jamaat-e-Islami and their patron BNPE is that Islamic terrorism, we will eradicate them. Based on this, Hasanul Haque Inu started calling Begum Khaleda Zia a "militant mother". Since then, we have heard many stories of police leaders being hanged at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICT) and killing militants by pretending to surrender to the Awami League.
Soon after, the United States began to view Islamic terrorism in Kashmir and India in the same way as the Indian administration.
The United States no longer sees Bangladesh in Delhi's eyes, according to a key American minister who spoke at a webinar on Indo-Pacific strategy last September. This means that the term of the American watchdog given to India has expired. America will deal directly with Bangladesh.
Will Bangladesh join the Indo-Pacific Alliance? I think Bangladesh has yet to take the time-wasting strategy. As long as this American pressure can be removed, it has taken a strategy. By saying one thing at a time to Abdul Momen, they are revealing their inner indecision about the Indo-Pacific Alliance.
Another important problem is that it is not possible to build a new international political relationship with the way Hasina has arranged the administration and power structure of Bangladesh in the last twelve years in an India-friendly manner. That structure of the new relationship will crumble. The Awami League government does not have the time or energy to break that structure and rebuild it. What was easy for the Awami League in 2013, today in 2020, the Awami League has lost the ability to do the same.
However, from what the Awami government has openly said about the Indo-Pacific Alliance, we can understand the attitude of the Hasina government.
Regarding US IPS, Hasina's Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen said the government has no objection to the US Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS), but more investment is needed in Bangladesh.
This simply means that we are meeting the need for investment with Chinese money.
"The United States wants to go into defense, it wants to sell equipment, but we are not in a fight," Abdul Momen said of the Indo-Pacific Alliance. So we have reluctance in those matters.
At the same time, Momen claimed, the meeting did not discuss Indo-Pacific. The meeting did not discuss the issue of defense co-operation or US arms sales, which has been the subject of much media coverage over the past few days. According to him, there has been no discussion on what you have written for a few days about defense co-operation or anything else.
So where did Momen know it from? 'The United States wants to go into defense, wants to sell equipment?
Will America remain in this indecisive state of Bangladesh? Never. America will use various tactics to create pressure. Meanwhile, US ally Saudi Arabia has pressured 42,000 Rohingya to return to Bangladesh. The next pressure may be to impose international sanctions on the heads of the armed forces for continuing human rights violations. International human rights activists are aware that American organizations have come a long way.
With the political support of India and the two lines of Chinese investment, the train of the Awami Empire, which was faltering, is now about to be torn apart by the American storm. It is conceivable that if the US pressure tactic does not work, the US will try to make another intervention like the One Eleven. And America's ability in this case is well known. It is not a matter of complexity for any international superpower to overthrow a government that holds power by electing an unpopular and voterless fraud that violates human rights.
No matter what happens, the time of fascism, which is sitting on the chest of Bangladesh holding the hand of India, is over. But history will tell exactly how this period of Amanisha will end.

 
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Cherub786

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The honest truth is Bangladesh doesn't have any geopolitical significance in this world, unlike Pakistan (gateway to Central Asia and the Persian Gulf). It's perhaps the most geographically unfortunate situated country in the world.
 

peagle

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The honest truth is Bangladesh doesn't have any geopolitical significance in this world, unlike Pakistan (gateway to Central Asia and the Persian Gulf). It's perhaps the most geographically unfortunate situated country in the world.
That's a very harsh assessment. I do see where your thinking is based, but with a population of 165 million, a country of that size will always matter.

If Bangladesh turned hostile to India, that is an Indian nightmare. Right now, they have taken the view that security is not a priority, I think it's a poor decision, but it's their decision. They have no territorial dispute with anyone so they can afford not to concentrate on security.

But, with greater economic stability, you can see issues relating to security are becoming more important. So, watch this space.
 

Cherub786

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That's a very harsh assessment. I do see where your thinking is based, but with a population of 165 million, a country of that size will always matter.

If Bangladesh turned hostile to India, that is an Indian nightmare. Right now, they have taken the view that security is not a priority, I think it's a poor decision, but it's their decision. They have no territorial dispute with anyone so they can afford not to concentrate on security.

But, with greater economic stability, you can see issues relating to security are becoming more important. So, watch this space.
What difference does population make? Bangladesh only matters conceivably because India could potentially be cut off from the "Seven Sisters" or Northeast states if China seized control of Siliguri Corridor. Then India would have to use Bangladesh's airspace and even territory to send supplies and forces to protect the Northeast.
But even if Bangladesh was hostile to India I think it wouldn't really matter for India because Bangladesh is no match for India militarily. India would use their territory with or without their permission.
This is why Bangladesh made a huge blunder in 71. If they remained East Pakistan today they would be a nuclear armed state, there would be nukes stationed in East Pakistan as there are nukes stationed in West Pakistan. I suspect many educated Bangladeshis of the younger generation regret the decision of their idiotic elders to revolt against Pakistan in 71
 

Neurath

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What difference does population make? Bangladesh only matters conceivably because India could potentially be cut off from the "Seven Sisters" or Northeast states if China seized control of Siliguri Corridor. Then India would have to use Bangladesh's airspace and even territory to send supplies and forces to protect the Northeast.
But even if Bangladesh was hostile to India I think it wouldn't really matter for India because Bangladesh is no match for India militarily. India would use their territory with or without their permission.
This is why Bangladesh made a huge blunder in 71. If they remained East Pakistan today they would be a nuclear armed state, there would be nukes stationed in East Pakistan as there are nukes stationed in West Pakistan. I suspect many educated Bangladeshis of the younger generation regret the decision of their idiotic elders to revolt against Pakistan in 71
You know mate, it is a bit complicated, we also did a supposed genocide so revolt is expected.
But you're right and I fully agree. Pakistan and Bangladesh would be better off united than divided. Plus Pakistan isn't that ulta conservative state it was 50 years ago.
Things have gotten better.
However, there are still many pro-India Bengalis. I don't expect a major and proper alliance between Bangladesh or Pakistan anytime soon.
 

peagle

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What difference does population make? Bangladesh only matters conceivably because India could potentially be cut off from the "Seven Sisters" or Northeast states if China seized control of Siliguri Corridor. Then India would have to use Bangladesh's airspace and even territory to send supplies and forces to protect the Northeast.
But even if Bangladesh was hostile to India I think it wouldn't really matter for India because Bangladesh is no match for India militarily. India would use their territory with or without their permission.
This is why Bangladesh made a huge blunder in 71. If they remained East Pakistan today they would be a nuclear armed state, there would be nukes stationed in East Pakistan as there are nukes stationed in West Pakistan. I suspect many educated Bangladeshis of the younger generation regret the decision of their idiotic elders to revolt against Pakistan in 71
I prefer not to enter a debate, it's nice article above and I would rather Bangladeshi's discuss it among themselves.

But,
The Soviet Union, with the most power military in the world at the time, could not dominate Afghanistan with 12 million people.
The richest and the most power country in the world, America, could not dominate Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, each with just over 20 million people.

No country in the world, let alone India, can dominate a country of 165 million, if anyone thinks they can, then they need to think again.

Regarding 1971, India did nothing except take advantage of a domestic situation, a fight between brothers, it acted like a feral street dog. We could have done the same to them in 1962, but that's a different issue altogether.

Size always matters, especially when you start talking about 100 million +.
Plus, come on, they are our brothers, please show some respect.
You know mate, it is a bit complicated, we also did a supposed genocide so revolt is expected.
Please pick your words carefully, there was no genocide.
Lot of very bad things happened sadly, but no genocide.
 
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idune

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The honest truth is Bangladesh doesn't have any geopolitical significance in this world, unlike Pakistan (gateway to Central Asia and the Persian Gulf). It's perhaps the most geographically unfortunate situated country in the world.
Not quite. Bangladesh may not be that important in broader global geo-political matter but in regional scenario, Bangladesh has importance. Bangladesh geographical location is quite strategic. Problem is Bangladeshi regime(s) had not taken advantage and used its potentials to realize those strategic importance it deserves. For example, there supposed to be a deep sea port built in southern part of Bangladesh in Kutubdia area but regime delayed for years and finally cancelled the project. Had such project implemented as planned 10 years back Bangladesh economic and military importance would have been much different.
 

Neurath

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Please pick your words carefully, there was no genocide.
Lot of very bad things happened sadly, but no genocide.
Look I sure am using my words correctly, Fk it, I don't want to touch that topic but you can do your research.
 

peagle

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Look I sure am using my words correctly, Fk it, I don't want to touch that topic but you can do your research.
fk it?
Time to calm down I think.

If you think you are using your word correctly, you need to learn a lot of actual information, you basically know nothing.

We can discuss this in private discussion if that's possible, I don't mind, your choice. But keep the emotions in check.
 

Bouncer

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The honest truth is Bangladesh doesn't have any geopolitical significance in this world, unlike Pakistan (gateway to Central Asia and the Persian Gulf). It's perhaps the most geographically unfortunate situated country in the world.
Any sane Pakistani will trade this "geopolitical significance" with Bangladesh in a heartbeat. It has caused misery to our masses and delusions of grandeur to our establishment. Imagine for a minute if Pakistan were located in some secluded corner of the world away from our lovely neighbors.

Bangladesh is lucky in a sense that it has an opportunity to keep its head down, stay away from these nasty geopolitics and work hard on its economy. I hope the people of Bangladesh see through this latest American/Indian maneuvering in their backyard and stay out of it. You get involved and it'll only result in your "patriots" getting an excuse to spend more than you can afford on defense and get you entangled in useless schemes.

You guys are in a very sweet spot right now; your exports are increasing, your per capita just crossed India's though not a big target to start with but still counts as a win. Wish you guys good luck!
 

idune

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There had been tussle going for uni polar vs multi polar world. This tussle will go on for sometime and in the regional play Bangladesh is a pit stop. That being said, US policy of hyphenating its relation with Bangladesh through india had not been beneficial. In fact it is proven to be harmful to current uni polar struggle US is leading. So changes to external scenarios around Bangladesh and in internal politics expected to see changes.
 

DalalErMaNodi

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There had been tussle going for uni polar vs multi polar world. This tussle will go on for sometime and in the regional play Bangladesh is a pit stop. That being said, US policy of hyphenating its relation with Bangladesh through india had not been beneficial. In fact it is proven to be harmful to current uni polar struggle US is leading. So changes to external scenarios around Bangladesh and in internal politics expected to see changes.
make more sensible comments like this, post less trash.
 

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