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The Taliban-US treaty: Will it sound the death knell for Pakistan?

CrazyZ

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Afghanistan needs to develop its economy as the USA cuts foreign aid. Its in Afghanistan's economic interests to work with a Sino-Pak bloc going forward. The USA-Indo-Iranian nexus that Kabul has been championing hasn't yielded much economic development in the past 10 years. Afghanistan will have to develop its mining and mineral sector (possible worth trillions)....the largest importer of minerals globally is China. Afghanistan already has rail links to Pakistan to ship this to China via CPEC. Air corridors wont work for shipping ore.
 

FuturePAF

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India was the only democracy that voted in the United Nations to support the soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which start the 40 years of misery for the Afghans. If the Indians go in themselves or even openly support an unpopular Afghan regime they are no different than any other invader and will be treated as such by the Afghans

Also, the Indians are hoping foreign nations will pay their people to go to Afghanistan. If the US Won’t pay black water to do it, they won’t pay the Indians. US domestic politics, especially after the writing is on the wall with the us deal in Qatar and the economic effects of the coronavirus, the US is done wasting money in Afghanistan.
 

Kaniska

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If anyone thinks that Afganistan is in constant war because of Pakistan, US, Iran or other countries...They are in illusion...It is the people who make nations...Just go by the history of Afganistan for 200-300 years, you will realize that Afganistan is always in some sort of war in some form or the other...The only difference is the players are changed in different era...If US leaves Afganistan, that void will be eagerly filled out by other Islamic poweful countries who are just waiting in their lines to fill the vaccum.... Because, since last 30 year, Muslim worlds used western nations such as Russia in 80's and US led Nato in 2000 as a bogey man to justify their violence...Now, if the bogey man is gone, then i hope it should not turn up like another Syria where opposite political affiliation Islamic groups go for a kill with each other...And then, Western nations can simply use passive support to any group and take control of Afganistan through back door.....

So if Pakistan would like to see Afganistan as a peaceful neighour, then forget about India as India is just a nuance for you in Afganistan...We do not have the real ability to be a deal breaker there...But you should control the scenario in a such a way so that it should not turn into another Syria..
 

CrazyZ

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well the most common outcome is that when US leaves Iran will come in and fill the vacuum left behind as we are seeing it after 2019 Iran begun to transfer advanced weapons to Taliban to combat US and US it self said Iran has transferred advanced SURFACE TO AIR MISSILES to Taliban in recent months so as i said before PK should get in line with Iran ( to make sure its interest are well protected and in line with Iran and Imran khan is going this exactly ) because Iran has long plan to rule west Asia and its not going to back down from it at any and i mean annnny cost.
Its in Iran's interests as well to work with us. Iran has made gains in the region,no doubt, however it was through skillful exploitation of American and European blunders in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. 100k - 200k Iranian proxies are enough to hold off KSA in Yemen and Turkey in Syria but that won't be enough to hold Pakistan off in Afghanistan. We can easily raise 400k-500k proxies and ground pound any Iranian backed adversary. We don't need F-15's or drones. This would be completely different fight then Iran has seen in other parts of the ME.
 
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skyshadow

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i think you are a bit late to the party..
those had to fill the space have already done so.
Iranians can only maintain foothold among Hazara people like they always did since their revolution and they are hardly 13-15%.
well They are not Shiat's it's going to take time for Iran to find an footprint or a common ground if you will, Taliban is not going anywhere and they need a powerful and reliable country to back them up so Iran can do that but only time will tell for now Iran has to win a in ME first.

Its in Iran's interests as well to work with us. Iran has made gains in the region,no doubt, however it was through skillful exploitation of American and European blunders in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. 100k - 200k Iranian proxies are enough to hold off KSA in Yemen and Turkey in Syria but that won't be enough to hold Pakistan off in Afghanistan. We can easily raise 400k-500k proxies and ground pound any Iranian backed adversary. We don't need F-15's or drones. This would be completely different fight then Iran has seen in other parts of the ME.
agreed a lot more dangerous as we never projected power where majority of people are Sunni and not alined with us but i'm telling you now Iran and PK will not fight in Afghanistan if some day god forbid it happens then Iran will wait until it has full control over much of the area but PK and Iran will not fight in near future.
 

-blitzkrieg-

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Taliban is not going anywhere and they need a powerful and reliable country to back them up so Iran can do that but only time will tell for now Iran has to win a in ME first.
you perhaps have very limited knowledge in regards to Talis. Their Qom is in Pakistan.. And Afghan Shia population wont like this action.
 

925boy

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i think you are a bit late to the party..
those had to fill the space have already done so.
Iranians can only maintain foothold among Hazara people like they always did since their revolution and they are hardly 13-15%.
What you are saying makes sense in general, but please remember one thing- Iran can always build up MORE support than it deserves in Chaotic situations/ wars/conflict/ anarchy.

What you are saying is correct, IF we assume there is general peace in Afghanistan, but there isnt. in war(according to my limited knowledge), most things are in flux and people think and do things differently than if they were in peaceful situation. All i'm telling you is that expect Iran's influence in war torn theaters Iran chooses to jump in to be disproportionate to Iran's expected influence.
 

925boy

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We can easily raise 400k-500k proxies and ground pound any Iranian backed adversary.
this is a lie because lack of sufficient funding will prevent this from happening. 2nd of all, you are only saying this because you assume Iran will act in Afghanistan the way its been since 2001 - act, but dont expose your hand too much, and play both sides until clear winner shows. 2nd of all, you cant train proxies as well as Iran. YOur proxies against India are good, but thats a different conflict and ball game.

We don't need F-15's or drones. This would be completely different fight then Iran has seen in other parts of the ME.
is this a video game? cuz this you are talking hypothetical which means no one realy knows how things will turn out. Also, India, Russia, CHina will delegate Iran with securing and helping their interests. who will support you? dont mention US because US will sanction Pakistan if Pakistan supports Taliban or anti-govt forces after this deal has afghan peace deal has been signed.

you perhaps have very limited knowledge in regards to Talis. Their Qom is in Pakistan.. And Afghan Shia population wont like this action.
Your Taliban are not the same Taliban as pre 2001, just like AMerica of today is not same America if early 2000s. Today is different and the context is different. Taliban will never control all of Afghanistan AGAIN, that is history and i will bet $ on that any day. screen shot this post if u like too.
 

Kaniska

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Its in Iran's interests as well to work with us. Iran has made gains in the region,no doubt, however it was through skillful exploitation of American and European blunders in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. 100k - 200k Iranian proxies are enough to hold off KSA in Yemen and Turkey in Syria but that won't be enough to hold Pakistan off in Afghanistan. We can easily raise 400k-500k proxies and ground pound any Iranian backed adversary. We don't need F-15's or drones. This would be completely different fight then Iran has seen in other parts of the ME.
Trust me, if i am not an Indian, i would have vouched for Pakistan taking control of Afganistan than Iran...The problem with Iran and Gulf is their inherent interest expand their influence near to their neighborhoods with their own sectarian beleif...If Iran will take control of Afganistan, why do you think they will stop exploring the option to improve their influence in Pakistan and then India...This is a typical mindset of expansionist mindset of all these Islamic powerful country....

Rather Pakistan, Indonesia or some extent Malaysia are few countries where Islam is not driven any sectarian beleif....So it is better for Pakistan to take control of Afganistan and stop the expansion of Iran’s influence at Iran Afganistan border only..
 

CrazyZ

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this is a lie because lack of sufficient funding will prevent this from happening. 2nd of all, you are only saying this because you assume Iran will act in Afghanistan the way its been since 2001 - act, but dont expose your hand too much, and play both sides until clear winner shows. 2nd of all, you cant train proxies as well as Iran. YOur proxies against India are good, but thats a different conflict and ball game.


is this a video game? cuz this you are talking hypothetical which means no one realy knows how things will turn out. Also, India, Russia, CHina will delegate Iran with securing and helping their interests. who will support you? dont mention US because US will sanction Pakistan if Pakistan supports Taliban or anti-govt forces after this deal has afghan peace deal has been signed.


Your Taliban are not the same Taliban as pre 2001, just like AMerica of today is not same America if early 2000s. Today is different and the context is different. Taliban will never control all of Afghanistan AGAIN, that is history and i will bet $ on that any day. screen shot this post if u like too.
The greatest victory is that which requires no battle...Sun Tzu
Iran and Pakistan will not fight in Afghanistan. It is in both countries interest to reach a mutual understanding and avoid a fight. Plus the Afghans have suffered from war long enough.

But if push came to shove......I am reminding the Iranians that Pakistan is a completely different creature then KSA or Turkey. The ground components of KSA in Yemen and Turkey in Syria have been generally inferior to the Iranian ones. We have a long history of training and using unconventional proxies. Plus Pakistan can field a mass that can easily outnumber any Iranian backed faction by many times on the ground.

That said...Pakistan would prefer that a civil war in Afghanistan not start again.
 

Valar.

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To sum up, it would sound apt to quote at this stage what the Indian Foreign Minister Shri S Jaishankar, while addressing a conference by the Centre for Policy Research on 02 March 2020 said, “In a world which is fractured with polarised debates, India is willing to step up to the plate and play a larger role.” Therefore, the time has now come for India to step out and make her presence felt in the global power play, leveraging every instrument of power at her disposal ranging from natural geographical dominance, global presence of Indian diaspora, soft power of Bollywood, a growing strong economy, military might and nuanced diplomacy.

(This aticle has been written by Lt Gen Abhay Krishna, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM, (Retd) Former Army Commander of Central Command, Eastern Command and South Western Command.
LOL

Sometimes it's fun to read old articles.
 

Dalit

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LOL

Sometimes it's fun to read old articles.
LOL Exactly. In hindsight all these Indian fortune tellers and magicians must be eating their words. What an epic humiliation. Such tough talkers, but when push comes to shove nowhere to be found.
 
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Here is what's going to happen.
India will be punched from all side let's start shall we..
1. US will economically slap India to face off against China..
2. China will smack India in Ladakh and Tibet and all those sister states...
3. Pakistan will smack India in Kashmir.
4. Taliban will make sure India won't be in Afghanistan so no access to Central Asian markets as well...
Let's see how what action bollywood movie would India make now...
India is trapped by allies and adversaries alike....
Ab to Ganga Meli ho gi...
A new Khilafastan will emerge from mother India...
 

LeGenD

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