• Sunday, February 23, 2020

The Question That Never Gets Asked About Kashmir: OPINION by a US based thinktank

Discussion in 'Strategic & Foreign Affairs' started by KeyBORED Warrior, Aug 25, 2019.

  1. KeyBORED Warrior

    KeyBORED Warrior FULL MEMBER

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    https://worldview.stratfor.com/arti...mir-plurality-citizens-india-pakistan-nuclear

    In 1998, the CIA subjected India to strict surveillance to ensure it was complying with its commitment not to test nuclear weapons. The agency used satellites, communications intercepts and agents to watch the nuclear facility at Pokhran in Rajasthan state. India could not detonate warheads, which would inevitably lead Pakistan to follow suit, without the United States knowing in advance. Or so the United States thought.

    Washington went into shock on May 11, 1998, when Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee announced that his country had just detonated not one, but five nuclear warheads at Pokhran. "India is now a nuclear power state," Vajpayee declared. R. Jeffrey Smith reported two days later in The Washington Post that CIA analysts responsible for monitoring India’s nuclear program "had not expected the tests and were not on alert, several officials said. They were, according to one senior official, asleep at their homes and did not see the (satellite) pictures until they arrived at work in the morning." U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby called the negligence "the biggest failure of our intelligence-gathering agencies in the past 10 years or more."

    Pakistan responded by testing five of its nuclear bombs on May 28. Pandora’s box was wide open, threatening mass destruction to the Asian subcontinent if the Pakistani and Indian armies squared off along the Line of Control that separated their forces in the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir. That happened a year later when Pakistani paramilitaries masquerading as indigenous Kashmiri rebel jihadists penetrated the Line of Control in Kashmir’s Kargil region. The Indian army confronted them, and U.S. intelligence detected Pakistan moving tactical nuclear weapons onto the battlefield. American diplomat Bruce Reidel wrote in his informative book, Avoiding Armageddon: America, India, and Pakistan to the Brink and Back, "The last war that India and Pakistan fought, over Kargil, threated to expand to a nuclear conflict." It didn’t go nuclear, following U.S. President Bill Clinton’s demand that Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif withdraw his forces. It was a close call.

    A Matter of International Concern
    If the CIA is watching India and Pakistan now, it will have to do better than it did in 1998. In 2019, with passions high over India’s abrogation of Kashmir’s legal, if fictitious, autonomy, the outcome would not be waking up to discover one side or the other had tested weapons. It would be the sight of nuclear war taking millions of lives. Although the stakes in Kashmir could not be higher, the United States and much of the international community call the dispute India’s "internal affair" or a "bilateral" issue between India and Pakistan. It isn’t. A potential nuclear conflagration cannot be anything other than a matter of international peace and security. The Indian and Pakistani armed forces possess both strategic and tactical nuclear weapons, which local commanders could use on the battlefield in populated areas. This would be the first use in war of atomic weapons since the U.S. destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

    The possibility of the conflict going nuclear may have increased on Aug. 16 when Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh seemed to abandon India’s "no first use" doctrine when he tweeted that "India has strictly adhered to this doctrine. What happens in the future depends on the circumstances." The circumstances are not hopeful. Correspondents for The New York Times in Kashmir reported meeting a herdsman beside his flock in the Kashmiri capital, Srinigar:

    As a car carrying a reporter slowed down to approach him, he sprang up and jogged to the window.
    "We are ready to pick up guns," he said, unprompted.

    If the decadeslong armed rebellion in Kashmir grows more intense in response to India’s revocation of the region’s autonomy and its imposition of a total security lockdown, India will blame Pakistan, which in years past supported Kashmiri insurgents. Imran Khan, who became Pakistan’s prime minister in August 2018, was not involved in his predecessors’ interference in Indian-controlled Kashmir.


    Imran Khan's problem is how to avoid war while defending the people of Kashmir, who are overwhelmingly Muslim in India’s only Muslim-majority state.


    Seeking a Moderating Voice
    Following Modi's clampdown in Kashmir, Khan has sought mediation support from U.S. President Donald Trump (who had offered to mediate when he met Khan at the White House in July), the United Nations, fellow Muslim leaders and countries that might influence Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. His pleas, he recently told me over the telephone, fell on deaf ears. His problem is how to avoid war while defending the people of Kashmir, who are overwhelmingly Muslim in India’s only Muslim-majority state. Muslims throughout India, who have been subjected to new tests to prove their right to citizenship, are living in fear of Modi’s Hindu nationalist government.

    India and Pakistan came to blows last February, following an insurgent attack on Indian troops in Kashmir. The Pakistanis downed an Indian fighter jet and captured its pilot, Abhinandan Varthaman. When Khan returned the Indian pilot on March 1, Modi did not acknowledge his conciliatory gesture. Nor has his government been willing to discuss Kashmir, whose people were promised a plebiscite on their future by India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, in 1947. The vote never took place, but several wars have. The question is, what do the people of Kashmir — those in the Indian-held two-thirds of the region, the Pakistani-held western third and the Hindu Kashmiris who were expelled from their homes in 1947 and are still officially displaced — want? No one is asking them, but that may be the only way to save them, and the world, from nuclear war.


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  2. R Wing

    R Wing FULL MEMBER

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    Good piece --- but it should have pointed out that Pakistan fully supports a plebiscite. In fact, we can happily do one in GB, AJK and even Balochistan (just for kicks) to shut Hindutva trolls up for good.
     
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  3. Foxtrot Delta

    Foxtrot Delta SENIOR MEMBER

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    Do a plebiscite thats what we kashmiriz want we all will vote for pakistan!
     
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  4. Osiris

    Osiris FULL MEMBER

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    If thats all you ever wanted, then why did Jinnah refuse to a plebiscite in Kashmir, under auspices of United Nations in November 1947 ?
     
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  5. war&peace

    war&peace ELITE MEMBER

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    Statement of fact and I'm surprised that the world powers are so indifferent and they are again underestimating the seriousness of the situation which can lead to a global disaster.. well, we have warned them but Israel and zionist lobby is planning and pushing India to go for a nuclear war with Pakistan.
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2019
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  6. Taimoor Khan

    Taimoor Khan ELITE MEMBER

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    U.S. Sen. Richard Shelby called the negligence "the biggest failure of our intelligence-gathering agencies in the past 10 years or more."

    Hogwash. America was completely onboard with India. The fact of the matter is, that Pakistan warned America of Indian intentions few days before the nuclear test, which like usual fell on deaf ears. To say America was not aware, is utter nonsense.
     
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  7. Verve

    Verve ELITE MEMBER

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    Right time for plebiscite is now, never before.

    IO Kashmiris majority supported pro-India Kashmiri elite till revocation of 370.

    And we can't forget what IOK residents did in 65!

    Kashmiris have to pick up arms to fight the Fascists.
     
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  8. Rafeh

    Rafeh FULL MEMBER

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    We should realize that why time is on Kashmir's side. Right now they fight with Kalashnikov putting their life in great danger and are easily discovered doing little harm to indians. In a state where majority hates india, soon cheap home-made-able weapons will be available using say simple embedded microcontrollers (say from home appliances, mobile phones etc.) running machine learning and A.I. algorithms (including machine learning based anti-jamming and difficult to detect communication signaling) that will swarm and carry out distributed attacks on indian soldiers inflicting great damage.

    Furthermore machines learning and A.I. algorithms will be public which can be used by even non-technical people, just they can use apps, to do things such as disturb traffic in an entire city, or cause great financial losses in a stock market.

    The point is near future freedom war will be very different. Pakistan and ISI are aware of these developments. That's why for example under the leadership of Atta-ur-Raman, over 5 artificial intelligence and, machine learning research Centre are being set up in Pakistan.

    The point is support structure for more sophisticated technologically advanced covert warfare is taking shape in Pakistan.

    I would not worry about Balochistan at all.

    First notice the facts:

    Fact 1: 50% percent of Baluchistan is Pashtun who are off course Pro Pakistan. Thanks to afghans that percentage is now much higher.


    Fact 2: Overwhelming majority of Baluchistan is Pro-Pakistan. Only handful of clans related to JUST THREE repeat JUST three tribes Marri, Mengal and Bugti have roughly few hundreds part time or full time militants. They are likely just 4 to 5 hundred at most and many are busy fighting among themselves. In fact they are hired to kill each other or intimate each other by these sardars and only some get to attack Pakistan (whenever they receives dollars from india).

    Those Sardars will now soon be settling down in "rich Gawadar and having business whose success depends on Pakistan and china so they will earn their dollars and "respect" by being Pakistanis. China will buy them even before that. Just let the Gwadar construction start more fully. Right now they have no way to make money or have a job. So unemployed youth struggling financially did sometimes ended up in indian hands. That's being solved by Pakistan now.

    Also Note even most bugti, marri or mengal are pro Pakistan and in the Baloch parliament as well as in Pak forces. The Handful few rebels will lose their grip since the sole complaints which was extreme poverty and neglected development and that is being resolved now. Economic development that has started will transform Baluchistan in the next few years and the last complain from Baluchistan will go away. I will write on this an essay here later someday.

    Note as Pointed by someone "Balochistan was NEVER a disputed territory". It joined Pakistan with free will.There is NO meaningful comparison between Balochistan and Indian occupied Kashmir. One is free part of a free country and the other is under forceful military occupation.

    What we really need however is to become sincere muslims. A real muslims is the one who

    "Enters the battlefield undefended and first, with unshakable conviction that from this moment forward Allah will remain closer to him or her than the things that will happen to him (or her)"

    Did I mention the word undefended meaning he does not relies on circumstantial support or guarantee of safety by other "humans" but stands up for the truth with courage and only only Allah almighty by his or her side.

    The point is eventually we would have to be prepared for war with india with our heart.

    In our finite existence one day we will parish anyway probably miserably on a hospital bed. So why not when the times comes, we cease to exist on the battlefield for the ONE and the only ONE Allah who gave us existence in the first place.

    We are even promised enteral and happiness filled existence from then on.
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2019
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  9. American Pakistani

    American Pakistani ELITE MEMBER

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    Balochistan is not a disputed territory. So I dont know why you are dragging it. Any one comparing Balochistan with Kashmir and it proves how successfully India was in linking the two.
     
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  10. War Thunder

    War Thunder SENIOR MEMBER

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    Nuts? Plebiscite in Baluchistan? You think we are some joke of a nation or you like to be seen as a joker and might wanna try some other stunts than suggesting stupidity to the country.
     
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  11. KeyBORED Warrior

    KeyBORED Warrior FULL MEMBER

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    Balochistan?? That's a FATAL error of judgement from you there...
    Well judging by this article, they're not completely oblivious of the fact that nuclear war is now a reality, which SHOULD be worrisome for EVERYONE, not just Pak and india
    I agree with you. It seems Uncle Sam was readying the indians against the Chinese threat. They saw it coming.
    As much as i would like to believe in a piece of paper and peaceful settlement, i don't see it happening until major powers take responsibility.
    I understand your commitment to the cause but dragging Balochistan into IOK is a major MAJOR folly.
    Exactly, thank you for spreading some sense
     
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  12. war&peace

    war&peace ELITE MEMBER

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    But the great thing Pakistan did was to be ready and not rely on anyone and we did the right thing by detonating our own devices on May 28 i.e. within 2.5 weeks .. despite international pressure. So those sanctions and threats have receded in the past but what we have today is prestigious nuke power.. and now we are facing the same situation and time is testing our mettle and resolve.. will be go in the history as a nation that stood its ground braved the gales of pressure and took down the evil with it regardless of the direction or a nation that caved into the pressure and let go its brothers and shunned its sovereignty. Call is ours.
     
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  13. Rafeh

    Rafeh FULL MEMBER

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    I did not drag at all Balochistan into IOK at all. Just tried to calm down some worried Pakistanis that increasing support in IOK might lead to increased terrorism in Balochistan by india.

    I do understand that Balochistan is Pakistan and while IOK is a disputed terrotory. One is a free part of a free country while other namely IOK is forcefully occupied

    We don't ever need to hold any plebsite in Pakistan anywhere, we all made this country with extreme willingness and commitment including baloch.
     
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  14. war&peace

    war&peace ELITE MEMBER

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    But is it enough? He is just a journalist or at max some analyst.. but the lobby (zionists) that are pushing the world to a nuclear are in control and the hindutva goons have just prostituted themselves to the zionists for their hate of Islam.. It is a religious war.
     
  15. Rafeh

    Rafeh FULL MEMBER

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    There are real and greater risks for india in a nuclear war though. since few nuclear weapons in Indian held glaciers and india will starve to death as irradiated water source destroys Indian crops while our large more heterogeneous irrigation system will survive a bit better. But then again Zionists might not mind having few 100 millions dead. They can always buy the hands that push the buttons.
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2019