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The First Indian attempt at ASAT failed in February 2019

Cobra Arbok

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So what ???? It is already a part of history now. :-)
It does not matter how many times one fails as long as one is eventually successful in the end. The fact is,March 27th will go down in history as the day India joined the big league of the likes of China, Russia, and the US. That is definitely a big achievement, and the fact it is making some Pakistanis so butthurt is proof of how big of a success this was for India.

The only debate here is the timing. Many are questioning whether this test was done primarily to help Modi win re-election, which is a valid concern, and an entirely different debate, one that seems to be the topic of this thread.
 

Tom M

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It does not matter how many times one fails as long as one is eventually successful in the end. The fact is,March 27th will go down in history as the day India joined the big league of the likes of China, Russia, and the US. That is definitely a big achievement, and the fact it is making some Pakistanis so butthurt is proof of how big of a success this was for India.

The only debate here is the timing. Many are questioning whether this test was done primarily to help Modi win re-election, which is a valid concern, and an entirely different debate, one that seems to be the topic of this thread.
Well, personally I never ever fail. ;)
 

amardeep mishra

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however it does seem like this election is witnessing an unprecedented amount of politicizing of India's Armed Forces and its military prowess by the current government, for electoral gains.
Hi @The Deterrent
That is absolutely true. I agree, the current dispensation has started using these events as a tools to boost their chances of electoral gains. These events should be seen in the light of technological advancements only!

The day DRDO trials its BMD against Agni-I/II (or a representative system), I'll be convinced that Pakistani Shaheen-I/II/Ghauri/Ababeel are at risk. The day DRDO trials its BMD against a mid-course maneuvering RV of Agni-III (or a representative system), I'll be convinced that Shaheen-IA/Shaheen-III are at risk.
@The Deterrent
I dont think the Shaheen-3 can maneuver in atmosphere (you are free to correct me with credible evidences!). So you must be talking about maneuvering before it enters the atmosphere? But I am sure you would know that, after burnout point, an RV is like a projectile and any nudge against the flight path will put the RV on a different trajectory and will miss the intended target. So, it will have to fire a series of nudges so as to still land at the intended target. It just seems too difficult for Shaheen-3. Also the fins in Shaheen-1A are for stabilization and not for control.
 

Sine Nomine

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That is definitely a big achievement, and the fact it is making some Pakistanis so butthurt is proof of how big of a success this was for India.
We don't care other then few who want to troll,we don't have any asset which is at risk.
 

The Deterrent

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It does not matter how many times one fails as long as one is eventually successful in the end. The fact is,March 27th will go down in history as the day India joined the big league of the likes of China, Russia, and the US. That is definitely a big achievement, and the fact it is making some Pakistanis so butthurt is proof of how big of a success this was for India.

The only debate here is the timing. Many are questioning whether this test was done primarily to help Modi win re-election, which is a valid concern, and an entirely different debate, one that seems to be the topic of this thread.
It is indeed an achievement, and of course failures are a part of the game and don't really matter. The point of this thread was not 'celebrate' that India failed at the first try, rather just bring it to light that their was an attempt in February that went unnoticed.

Regarding Pakistan, it doesn't have much satellites to begin with, so the ASAT test doesn't really affects Pakistan. Its the dual application in the BMD field that concerns Pakistan.

In my personal opinion, India could have abstained (like Israel), and not invite unwanted attention from around the world. One more reason why I believe that political posturing was the whole point of doing this.

I dont think the Shaheen-3 can maneuver in atmosphere (you are free to correct me with credible evidences!). So you must be talking about maneuvering before it enters the atmosphere? But I am sure you would know that, after burnout point, an RV is like a projectile and any nudge against the flight path will put the RV on a different trajectory and will miss the intended target. So, it will have to fire a series of nudges so as to still land at the intended target. It just seems too difficult for Shaheen-III. Also the fins in Shaheen-IA are for stabilization and not for control.
No credible (publicly available) evidence here, sorry. Shaheen-IA doesn't have any fins except the ones in tail. On this note, try to figure out the commonalities of Shaheen-IA & Shaheen-III.

upload_2019-4-2_10-17-12.png

(From left to right: Shaheen-IA, Shaheen-III, Ababeel)
 

amardeep mishra

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Thats the old Shaheen-I.
@The Deterrent
I mean my point is still unanswered and that is- they would have to fire a "series" of pre-determined nudges to still land at the fixed target. I am ruling out guidance and control of RV in dynamic pressure region during descent phase. It is just too difficult for Pakistan to attempt at this stage. Guidance and Control of hypersonic vehicles is still a very challenging task and way beyond the capabilities of Pakistan. So the only option is that, if at all, the RV maneuvers, the maneuvering takes place outside the atmosphere.
 

The Deterrent

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@The Deterrent
I mean my point is still unanswered and that is- they would have to fire a "series" of pre-determined nudges to still land at the fixed target. I am ruling out guidance and control of RV in dynamic pressure region during descent phase. It is just too difficult for Pakistan to attempt at this stage. Guidance and Control of hypersonic vehicles is still a very challenging task a way beyond the capabilities of Pakistan. So the only option is that, if at all, the RV maneuvers, the maneuvering takes place outside the atmosphere.
The 'no evidence' statement was for the exo-atmospheric maneuvering, not endo-. My bad, didn't read it carefully.

I agree that only exo-atmospheric maneuvering is possible using the current hardware in possession of both countries, and pre-calculated maneuvers will have to be executed to do so. That's precisely why I separated Shaheen-I/II/Ghauri/Ababeel from Shaheen-IA/III.
 

randomradio

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Again, have you read the entire post?
It is as I said. Saraswat confirmed the nature of the test.

https://www.aninews.in/news/former-...-his-comments-on-a-sat-testing20190331211358/
"At that time, we had said that we are going to do two experiments, one with electronically simulated satellite trajectory and launching an interceptor against that to avoid debris in the environment. On the success of this, we had planned to do a test with the real satellite trajectory"; he had stated.

Anyway, I spoke to a friend of mine at ISRO. If a test fails, the bureaucratic hurdles alone take weeks to resolve cumulatively at every step of the process. Also, even in cases of minor failures, the entire rocket is checked. And something as significant as ASAT would definitely be delayed.

So the story about an electronically simulated test followed by the real test makes more sense. Also, it makes sense to end the missile's flight before it reached space in order to maintain secrecy, which gives you a 30-second flight. Which is what was likely done during the Feb test. The article has obviously given a spin on normal stuff.

Again, it is not about exemption or a technicality. Why did Modi feel the need to order an ASAT test close to elections, make a pompous codename for the test, and then brag about it? Don't you think that the Indian military prowess is being exploited for short-term electoral gains?
Nope. As per reports, test preparations began in 2016.

DRDO claimed they had the system ready long before Modi, but the UPA did not go through with it. So Modi getting it done in his term, before the uncertainty of elections, is a huge service to the nation. If UPA came back, there was the risk of them backing out of the test again.

There is always political gain to testing strategic systems, but the political gain was obviously secondary. It's obvious the elections were not the objective, although Modi milking it is his prerogative. Blame UPA for not doing it first, which they could have done in early 2014. They could have gone nuclear in the 80s as well. If you haven't noticed, NDA gets sh!t done.

I've held the same view as many other third parties: Technically, this test had less to do with developing deployable ASATs, and more with verifying BMD's parameters in exoatmospheric domain...along-with achieving political objectives.
Depends. We don't know what's the main objective. Getting into the Space-haves is obviously the main political objective. But military? Who knows?

DRDO now has a somewhat proven seeker, capable of mid-course interception of ballistic non-maneuverable objects. What remains to be developed is a cost-effective and canisterized rocket motor for the seeker (K-4 is an overkill). Perhaps the proposed Agni-IP's motor will be used for this purpose.
Why do you think the K-4 is an overkill? If the objective is to build some for military use then whatever you see will be the production version.

I'll doubt the effectiveness of any ABM unless it is trialed against a BM with an actual RV (representative of the rival's capabilities), for example the Israeli Silver Sparrow. The day DRDO trials its BMD against Agni-I/II (or a representative system), I'll be convinced that Pakistani Shaheen-I/II/Ghauri/Ababeel are at risk. The day DRDO trials its BMD against a mid-course maneuvering RV of Agni-III (or a representative system), I'll be convinced that Shaheen-IA/Shaheen-III are at risk.
DRDO has to increase the scope of their trials. But, AFAIK, they are simulating the same on the Prithvi alone. The current target missile has been specifically designed to be a target that's meant to simulate lower end MRBMs. The last test before Feb actually simulated the Agni I.

Shaheen III's simulation will be part of Phase 2, which is set to begin very, very soon, once the Machilipatnam facility goes online. Phase 2's expected to be a big one, going all the way to IRBMs. Getting the land allotted has been the primary reason for delay in Phase 2.
 

randomradio

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Hi @The Deterrent
That is absolutely true. I agree, the current dispensation has started using these events as a tools to boost their chances of electoral gains. These events should be seen in the light of technological advancements only!
That's never gonna happen in any country in the world.

All strategically significant stuff is going to give the political leadership of the time huge political mileage, which they will all make a big deal about.
 

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