• Saturday, January 18, 2020

The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

Discussion in 'Iranian Defence Forum' started by mohsen, Apr 17, 2016.

  1. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal SENIOR MEMBER

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    Rahbar is but one man. He is powerful and enjoys support among many power bases. But Iran is littered with different power bases all with varying degrees of corruption and sway. While you might think it’s best for him to destroy his rivals. The opposite is true. He tries to make sure no power base gets stronger than him including his own allies.

    Rahbar cannot just snap his fingers and have entire legions wiped out. Iran is a republic and as the ill fated story of Emperor Julius Caesar shows, friends one day can be enemies plotting your demise tommorrow.

    Discontent over gas prices is a joke when Iran has the 3rd lowest gas prices in the ENTIRE world and lowest in Middle East. And the increase in gas prices is to allow more subsidies to the poorest of Iranians.
     
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  2. Sineva

    Sineva FULL MEMBER

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    And just who was it who implemented these sanctions?,iran certainly did not sanction itself.However I think that part of the blame does lie with rouhani and his failure to take into account and plan for the very real likelihood that the west would either violate the deal or at the bare minimum fail to live up to its obligations to irans satisfaction.Had he been more pragmatic and planned accordingly he could`ve used the failure of the jcpoa to begin a policy of economic reform and push it through regardless,however the only plan that he seemed to have was the jcpoa and western style economic liberalism,which might`ve worked......if it hadnt been for the chumpster and all those closeted american fascists who came out of their closets to support him......regardless of the cost to their country and its standing in the world.
    Ultimately tho it will fall to rouhanis [very likely hardline] successors to accomplish this reform,or at least get it started,after all it takes more than mere slogans to produce a resistance economy,however sanctions are often a twin edge sword,in that they can do great harm but that they can also produce priceless opportunities.......that is provided that the political will is there to take advantage of these in the first place of course.
    I agree that corruption looks to be a very big problem,indeed this is where oil has in many ways been a curse economically,as it lead to a failure to build a decent taxation system and to enforce it.Ultimately ANY economic reform will have to involve ruthlessly rooting out corruption WHEREVER it is,as with oil no longer being the governments main financial source of revenue taxation will have take over and every rial/euro/dollar/yuan lost to corruption will be one less for irans economy and the taxes that it will generate.This was ALWAYS going to have to be done as the oil and gas would never last for ever but it was assumed that this was decades into the future but with the coming of the chumpists and the intensification of the economic warfare against iran it will have to be done far,far sooner......thats all.
    Its a big job,hopefully the iri is up to it because the price of failure could be catastrophic.However I think that iran is potentially the best placed in the region to do these various things as in most other regional [mena] countries there is either no money or technology,or no political will and little to no political accountability......or worse all of these things combined.
     
  3. Sineva

    Sineva FULL MEMBER

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    For once western sanctions and russias reliable unreliability appear to have worked in irans favor as the western plan to convert fordow into a medical isotope production facility now appears to have been effectively scuttled,ironically by the chump regime who refused to continue its waivers for the project.You`d have thought that some of his eurovassal "friends" would`ve told him why this was so important[LOL!]
    I suspect the next step [hopefully] will be the end of waivers for the redesign/reconstruction of the arak reactor and hopefully the rebuilding by iran of the core to the original non enriched fuel design.

    https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Russia-suspends-Fordow-project-in-Iran

    Iran's action followed its withdrawal from some of the obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), and TVEL's announcement yesterday came on the eve of the next round of talks between Iran and the JCPOA signatories at the International Atomic Energy Agency's headquarters in Vienna.

    TVEL, the nuclear fuel manufacturer subsidiary of Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom, said it was "technologically impossible" to implement the Fordow project at this time. Uranium enrichment and stable medical isotope production cannot be sustained in the same room because air and equipment are exposed to UF6 "leftovers", making the produced stable medical isotopes unsuitable for medical purposes, TVEL said.

    "To resume this work, it will be necessary to stop and dismantle the cascades in which uranium enrichment takes place and to thoroughly clean the premises and equipment. Until these conditions are met, work on the project from the Russian side has been suspended," it said.

    Since 2017, TVEL has been engaged in modifying two gas centrifuge cascades at the Fordow facility, intended for producing stable isotopes (xenon and tellurium) for medical purposes. The works were carried out in compliance with the JCPOA dated 14 July 2015. The International Atomic Energy Agency and the JCPOA Joint Commission were regularly updated on project progress, TVEL said.

    TVEL's suspension follows a US announcement last month that the waiver allowing foreign companies to work at Fordow will end on 15 December. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said yesterday that this pressure had "created a difficult environment" for Russia and other participants in the JCPOA. Russian news agency RIA Novosti quoted Ryabkov as saying that Russia is suspending its participation in the project to "analyse the possibilities and potential negative consequences of the American measures" but was not stopping it altogether.
     
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  4. mangekyousharingan

    mangekyousharingan FULL MEMBER

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    What difference does it make? Our problem is not and have never been oil dependency. We could be the world leaders in every single technological field. What difference does it make when we need permission from USA to export our goods and tech? US can put sanctions on us whenever they like, and no one will dare to buy anything from us. Today it's oil, tomorrow it's gas next week its solar energy. It doesn't matter. Our only option is to normalize ties with US, but they will only normalize ties and leave us alone, if we give up our missile program, acknowledge Israel, give up our integrity and become a vassal state like Saudi.

    Our only option is to become strong enough to force them into leaving us alone. We need nukes. We need ICBMS. We need to tell them to lift sanctions or we will nuke Israel and each and every American city. But our corrupt rulers doesn't give a shit about sanctions or our economy, as long as their own pockets are full.
     
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  5. TheImmortal

    TheImmortal SENIOR MEMBER

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    lol nuke US? What a great idea, send Iran back 3000 years. Because if even one nuke flies towards US, every Iranian city will be hit in retaliation. And Iran will be a social pariah and failed state for next 500 years

    Eventually the world will normalize ties with Iran because Iran, Turkey and other developing countries are needed to keep the dollar Ponzi scheme alive. The west is reliant on continuing world growth to issue more and more debt, this growth will only come from going into other countries like Iran and sucking the growth out. China and India are slowing down as they become more developed and move to consumer based economies.
     
  6. mangekyousharingan

    mangekyousharingan FULL MEMBER

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    I didn’t say we should nuke US.. What I’m saying is, if we do have the capability to nuke all their cities. I’m sure they would think twice before sanctioning us again. So it’s just a deterrent against sanctions. Like Israel’s Samson option.

    I don’t think the world will ever normalize ties with Iran. Not as long as US tells them not to. The only option we have is to make US change their mind about sanctioning us.
     
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  7. Hack-Hook

    Hack-Hook ELITE MEMBER

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    North Korea has the capability to nuke USA and they get sanctioned, you don't want to get sanctioned then get capability to sanction them , get something they want and cant get it from somewhere else .
     
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  8. mangekyousharingan

    mangekyousharingan FULL MEMBER

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    North Koreas case is very different from Iran. I'm sure Kim prefers North Korea to be sanctioned and cut off from the world as much as possible. According to North Korean media. North Korea beat Brazil and won the world cup in 2014... Being cut off from the world, sanctioned and having a poor population just means more power to Kim. North Korea is just Kims playground and I'm sure he would prefer to keep things as they are.

    Look at their trade from 2017 (Right) and compare to Iran (Left)

    upload_2019-12-22_16-11-59.png

    It's entirely different for Iran. You just cant compare North Korea to Iran. We have more than enough resources, manpower, ideology, vision.

    We are the third most oil rich country in the world. And the most rich in natural gas. We have a big young population where almost all are educated. We have enormous potential, only thing holding us back are sanctions and our selfish leaders lack of balls.

    The Iraq war destroyed our revolutionary spirit. Sanctions are destroying whats left of us. But I guess the solution is to do nothing?

    From wiki:

    Iran's population reached 70 million in 2006. More than two-thirds of the Iranians are under the age of 30, and the literacy rate stands above 82%.[1]

    By 2007, Iran had a student to workforce population ratio of 10.2%, standing among the countries with highest ratio in the world.[3]

    In 2008, 85% of the Iranian adult population were literate, well ahead of the regional average of 62%. This rate increases to 97% among young adults (aged between 15 and 24) without any gender discrepancy.[1]

    Iran holds 10% of the world's proven oil reserves. According to the Iran Petroleum Ministry, the proved natural gas reserves of Iran are about 1,201 trillion cubic feet (34.0 trillion cubic metres) or about 17.8% of world's total reserves, of which 33% are as associated gas and 67% is in non associated gas fields. It has the world's second largest reserves after Russia.[1][2] As it takes approximately 5,850 cubic feet (166 m3) of gas to equal the energy content of 1-barrel (0.16 m3) of oil, Iran's gas reserves represent the equivalent of about 205 billion barrels (3.26×1010 m3) of oil.

    There was a new discovery (I don't remember which and when) that made us surpass the Russians.
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2019
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  9. Sineva

    Sineva FULL MEMBER

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    Ultimately so long as rouhanis regime is still in power the appeasement style policies of "smiling diplomacy" and "dialogue between civilizations" will continue,however he will NOT be in power for much longer and then it will be time for some brand new policies......hopefully ones of maximum iranian counter pressure,as it is only by imposing escalating economic costs on the west and its vassals that they may actually begin to think twice about the wisdom of doing nothing to oppose chump and his utterly destructive policies.
    But so long as rouhani thinks that there is even a ghost of a chance that the jcpoa might be preserved then he will continue with it,after all when one has played the role of neville chamberlain for so long,one cannot suddenly turn around and try and play a convincing winston churchill[lol!].At this point his last faint remaining hope is that chump will not be reelected and that a new democratic president will rejoin the deal.......Once a fool always a fool,I guess.
    Still at least this way iran can say that it tried every reasonable diplomatic option,naturally of course that doesnt include bullsh!t photo ops with the orange sh!t-gibbon in chief.
     
  10. mangekyousharingan

    mangekyousharingan FULL MEMBER

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    Unfortunately, the problem goes much deeper than just Rouhani and his administration. Most if not all our government heads have their children living in US, Europe and Canada. So they don't need to think about the future of their kids.

    What they need to think about is their own future. They have unlimited money because they can plunder Irans wealth as much as they like. When their kids living abroad need money, they can plunder some for them too. So the only thing they need to worry about is staying in power. And as long as they don't go against the US, they will continue to stay in power. Which means they will continue to stay wealthy, and continue to send money to their kids who live in the west. Thats why they wont do anything about the situation. Not the current administration, not the next, or the next one after them.
     
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  11. skyshadow

    skyshadow SENIOR MEMBER

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  12. Sineva

    Sineva FULL MEMBER

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    Just saw this on the BBC
    Iran to no longer abide by any limits on enrichment,"iran will enrich based on its technical needs"
    So iran has now removed the restrictions on quantity AND the level of enrichment as well.
     
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  13. BlueInGreen2

    BlueInGreen2 FULL MEMBER

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    Both the U.S. and Israel are going to have put up or shut up.

    Let's see if they are going to go ahead with their plans of "stopping" Iran.
     
  14. Inqlab-e-Pakistan

    Inqlab-e-Pakistan FULL MEMBER

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    Means now US have solid reason to attack Iran.
     
  15. OldTwilight

    OldTwilight SENIOR MEMBER

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    Finally ....great pressure is lifted from my heart
     
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