• Tuesday, January 28, 2020

The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

Discussion in 'Iranian Defence Forum' started by mohsen, Apr 17, 2016.

  1. QWECXZ

    QWECXZ FULL MEMBER

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    Rouhani's term will end in 2021. I doubt that technology would advance so fast so much that it renders all of our defense systems obsolete.

    The chance of war is low in my opinion. And don't forget that the same things were said when Iran signed a nuclear agreement with E3 in 2004. Almost everyone said that they would attack Iran when Ahmadinejad took the office. Ahmadinejad ended Iran's compliance to the 2004 nuclear deal and increased the number of Iran's centrifuges from 24 to more than 9,000 centrifuges.
     
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  2. SubWater

    SubWater SENIOR MEMBER

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    WOWWWWW
    72 SWU
    That number is unbelievable for us 5 years ago to even think about it
     
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  3. QWECXZ

    QWECXZ FULL MEMBER

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    Yes, but don't get too excited about it because it's only a prototype and that SWU number is only theoretical and in practice, it won't be attained. The only way to determine a machine's actual separative power is to inject uranium/uranium hexafluoride gas to it and Iran cannot do that until 2025, as long as we are complying with the JCPOA.

    Unless the Rouhani administration completely scraps the JCPOA, we cannot install any new centrifuges in our nuclear facilities. We can only replace the existing ones with IR-2M machines at best (if I'm not mistaken). Even if we produce a prototype that theoretically attains 1000 SWUs, it won't make any difference as long as we can't install chains of them at our nuclear facilities.
     
  4. SubWater

    SubWater SENIOR MEMBER

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    Iran is breaking limits one by one, so do not need to wait till 2025.
    Where were you in last 6 months, my dear friend?
    we already install new centrifuges in last month.
     
  5. QWECXZ

    QWECXZ FULL MEMBER

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    Yes, but most of these limits that we're breaking do no matter. For example, in the first step, Iran said that it would no longer sell its heavy water stockpile to foreign countries but that came after Trump sanctioning our heavy water. So, we said "You don't let us sell our heavy water anymore? Good. We don't want to sell it either." ;-) Then Iran said that it would enrich uranium upto 4.5%. That's not a huge move either because it does not change much for us. Anything below 20% is not a significant leap. Then Iran said that it would test a chain of 32 IR-6 machines at Natanz. It will take you a really long time (more like years) to enrich enough uranium with 32 IR-6 machines to produce electricity for a small village. That's really negligible. And there are talks in the media about Rouhani postponing the 4th step already. Let's see what will happen.

    We are replacing our old broken centrifuges. Do you know how many centrifuges Iran had before the JCPOA? More than 19,000 centrifuges, of which nearly 10,000 centrifuges were operating. Installing thirty-something IR-6 centrifuges to replace broken IR-1, IR-2 and IR-2M centrifuges does not count at all.
     
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  6. Hack-Hook

    Hack-Hook ELITE MEMBER

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    That's unveiling but it certainly have some kink to sort out that take some year to fix . look at IR-8 we showed it certain years ago but how long it take for it to become something economically viable and Even know we are more opted for IR-6 than IR-8 if we want to start the production line . I'm sure this one also will have such situation
     
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  7. QWECXZ

    QWECXZ FULL MEMBER

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    You're correct but please let me add that even IR-6 has not been fully tested yet. You can't test the performance of a centrifuge without injecting U/UF6 gas into it and the JCPOA explicitly defines a schedule for the development and testing of centrifuges by Iran until 2025. You need to set up your centrifuges in series and parallel configurations and inject gas into them with the centrifuges spinning at progressively higher frequencies to see how well your new device performs. IR-8 is completely out of the question at this step.
     
  8. Hack-Hook

    Hack-Hook ELITE MEMBER

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    Yes ,you only can guess roughly how it work but that's even is not certain.
     
  9. QWECXZ

    QWECXZ FULL MEMBER

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    Exactly. The number 72 is only a theoretical upper bound. For example, the IR-1 machine was expected to have a nominal separative work unit of 2-3, but when it came to actual performance, it was more like 0.8-0.9 and it broke at high frequencies very often. So, when they say 72 without having injected UF6 into it, we can't take it for granted.

    And from what I've read in newspapers, even the testing of IR-9 will not happen in the next 5-10 years. So, if we want to have a machine with a SWU higher than 50, we should wait another 10 years at minimum.

    On a side note, Iran always reports the SWU in a confusing way. When they say 72 SWU, it is not clear whether they mean 72 Kg U SWU/year or 72 kg UF6 SWU/year. I always assume the later, but the two do not coincide and 72 Kg U SWU/year > 72 Kg UF6 SWU/year.
     
  10. Sineva

    Sineva FULL MEMBER

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    https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/new...s-grossi-elected-head-of-uns-nuclear-watchdog


    Grossi, who becomes the first IAEA head from Latin America and is believed to have had the backing of the US, has said he wants to be "an honest broker for all" without a "hidden agenda".

    "My approach with Iran will be very firm but very fair," the 58-year-old told AFP in a September interview.

    His little quote about being "very firm but very fair" gave me a good laugh.....
     
  11. zectech

    zectech SENIOR MEMBER

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    Iran has 1 and one-half years to get the bomb. Not only is Washington behind in military technology now... the zionists are trying to build a new brand of Republicanism that is neo-nazis like trump. Zionists don't want to destroy that image that trump is for no more wars and wants to pull out of the middle east. The zionists invest billions of dollars and many hours building that neo-nazis trump brand. And it would be destroyed with another war before the 2020 Nov vote. There would be a war after the elections, no doubt about that, but that is after trump has two terms and won prestige of having a 'valid neo-nazis zionist' movement. If there is a war now, trump would be defeated by an anti-war candidate, and that would hurt the zionists in both Republican branding and Democratic branding.

    No... there was not going to be a war from 2017-2021, Iran had 4 years to get the bomb. Now they have less than 2.

    Zionists are trying to brand trump as an anti-Christ too, for the Christian zionists, if trumpish neo-nazism is rejected by Republican voters. They spend billions to brand their puppets and have reserve paths if nobody buys the bait.

    However if trump is exposed as a zionist warmonger, they lose the 15% of anti-zionists in America who would stop hating Muslims and start hating zionists again. The movement against zionism became so big that the zionists needed to shift this hatred onto Muslim migrants. So for the past decade, zionists have been retraining and reprogramming the minds of ''white' nationalists' to hate Muslims instead of zionists.

    This is very delicate and trump has to play the part of a successful ''white' nationalist' and win in 2020 to create a new movement where zionists run the neo-nazis movement. If a war starts before 2021, trumps brand fails. You have many deranged ''white' nationalists' who believe trump hates zionism and is working for them.
     
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  12. SubWater

    SubWater SENIOR MEMBER

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    Iran nuclear commitment cuts: Gas injection to start at Fordow
    Tue Nov 5, 2019 08:31AM [Updated: Tue Nov 5, 2019 09:26AM ]
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    [​IMG]
    President Hassan Rouhani addresses the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s Azadi innovation factory in West Tehran on November 5, 2019. (President.ir)


    President Hassan Rouhani says Iran will start injecting uranium gas into centrifuges at the Fordow enrichment facility on Wednesday, in the latest step the country is taking away from a 2015 multinational nuclear deal in response to the United States' withdrawal.

    In a Tuesday speech broadcast live on TV, Rouhani said the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) will be ordered to begin the gas injection process at the Fordow nuclear facility — where 1,044 centrifuges are installed — under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Wednesday.

    He, however, reaffirmed that all actions Iran has so far taken to reduce its commitments under the nuclear deal remain reversible.

    The president said Iran is ready to resume its nuclear commitments when the remaining parties to the deal — officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — fulfill their end of the bargain.

    Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to repurpose its Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant as a center for the production of stable isotopes, which have important applications in industry, agriculture and medicine.

    The deal allowed the first-generation IR-1 centrifuges at Fordow to spin without uranium gas, while over 5,000 at Iran’s Natanz facility could enrich uranium.

    “We know their sensitivity with regard to Fordow… [and] these centrifuges,” Rouhani said, referring to the Western states who negotiated the accord with Tehran. “But at the same time when they uphold their commitments, we will cut off the gas again...So it is possible to reverse this step.”

    Iran, he added, cannot continue to uphold its side of the agreement unilaterally, while the other parties keep failing Tehran.

    President Rouhani further expressed Iran’s readiness to restart nuclear talks with member states of the P5+1 group — the US, France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China — if Washington returns to the deal and removes all the “wrong, cruel and illegal” sanctions it has re-imposed on Iran after abandoning it last year.

    (This item is being updated.)
     
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    yavar SENIOR MEMBER

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    yavar SENIOR MEMBER

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