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The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

TheImmortal

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Heres a very good one,and long overdue.
It lays out the potential iranian requirements for verifying western compliance with the terms of the jcpoa.
This was always the obvious glaring weak point in the jcpoa,its complete and utter lack of any iranian verification measures.
Basically copying the US “waiver” verification under the old JCPOA.

Issue is once Iran joins JCPOA 2.0 again, it won’t leave even if US violates. Trump ripped up the deal and for 1 YEAR Iran stayed in compliance and it took another 2-3 YEARS to actually breach enough of the deal to put pressure on the West.

So I’m not optimistic about this tactic at all. Iran is way too pragmatic for it. West will call the bluff and see right thru it.
 

Stryker1982

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Basically copying the US “waiver” verification under the old JCPOA.

Issue is once Iran joins JCPOA 2.0 again, it won’t leave even if US violates. Trump ripped up the deal and for 1 YEAR Iran stayed in compliance and it took another 2-3 YEARS to actually breach enough of the deal to put pressure on the West.

So I’m not optimistic about this tactic at all. Iran is way too pragmatic for it. West will call the bluff and see right thru it.
What can be done?

Dont sign and remain fully sanctioned with a weakened economy
Or sign in the hope they won't screw us over to be able to import/export freely and unfreeze the 10s of billions of dollars that are frozen.
 

Sineva

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Basically copying the US “waiver” verification under the old JCPOA.

Issue is once Iran joins JCPOA 2.0 again, it won’t leave even if US violates. Trump ripped up the deal and for 1 YEAR Iran stayed in compliance and it took another 2-3 YEARS to actually breach enough of the deal to put pressure on the West.

So I’m not optimistic about this tactic at all. Iran is way too pragmatic for it. West will call the bluff and see right thru it.
Theres a lot more than mere waivers here,this is effectively demanding guarantees of minimum oil sales of 2.5mpd,and for western banks to provide $5.7bd in transactions per month.
This goes way beyond just lifting sanctions,as even with lifting sanctions there was still no requirement that western banks,or any others,actually had to do business with iran,this was another glaring weak point in the original jcpoa.
If this was still rouhanis government,then I would agree with you,as the original jcpoa was rouhanis baby,and he [very foolishly imho] quite literally bet everything on it,including his reputation and his political career.In addition to that it was painfully clear that he had no back up plan,no plan B,so its not surprising that he bent over backwards to try and preserve it,even when he must`ve known that he had to respond eventually to western failures to abide by the deals terms.
Irans new government however,has no personal or political investment in the jcpoa,indeed without some rather substantial changes,such as verification measures for iran,I really dont see any return being likely.
 

Stryker1982

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Theres a lot more than mere waivers here,this is effectively demanding guarantees of minimum oil sales of 2.5mpd,and for western banks to provide $5.7bd in transactions per month.
This goes way beyond just lifting sanctions,as even with lifting sanctions there was still no requirement that western banks,or any others,actually had to do business with iran,this was another glaring weak point in the original jcpoa.
If this was still rouhanis government,then I would agree with you,as the original jcpoa was rouhanis baby,and he [very foolishly imho] quite literally bet everything on it,including his reputation and his political career.In addition to that it was painfully clear that he had no back up plan,no plan B,so its not surprising that he bent over backwards to try and preserve it,even when he must`ve known that he had to respond eventually to western failures to abide by the deals terms.
Irans new government however,has no personal or political investment in the jcpoa,indeed without some rather substantial changes,such as verification measures for iran,I really dont see any return being likely.
good timing

 

mohsen

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Original JCPOA is dead. Iran has gotten more advanced since then and the terms are obsolete (in the eyes of the west).

Do you think their will be a new deal at all?


They are upset that they cannot collect the layout of the facility for future sabotage attempt.
Original JCPOA was one-sided and gave Iran nothing, so it's their turn to remove the sanctions first. after that, in return of a full compensation, Iran may accept to extend some restrications.

This is the only possible scenario. but from what I see today, US still thinks this is 2013 and there is a chance for imposing a one sided-deal again, most probably they will try this goal in new round of negotiations again, the round which is doomed to fail. but Iran will gladly waste some time for negotiations too, cause this time, time is on our side.
 

TheImmortal

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Theres a lot more than mere waivers here,this is effectively demanding guarantees of minimum oil sales of 2.5mpd,and for western banks to provide $5.7bd in transactions per month.
West cannot guarantee banks do a damn thing. They are free to make their own decisions and that’s what they will tell you in the negotiating room. Most banks won’t touch Iran its radioactive to them, not enough business revenue to justify “future” sanctions. Regardless what the US promises.

Just look at the utter failure that was the EU “banking channel”.

Maybe once banks see sanctions stay off for a decade or more they will start relaxing restrictions, but their is no guarantee how long JCPOA 2.0 will last. After all Trump 2024 is just around the corner.

Also remember in the future a reformist could be in power and US decides to exist deal. Reformist will sit in deal for a few years just like Rouhani did. And as much as I want to blame Rouhani, the breaches of the deal were set by the SL and Security Council so they all elected to wait and see. Such is nature of pragmatic Republic.

Keep expectations low, JCPOA 2.0 won’t be anything great for Iran either. But it’s better than being under sanctions.
Iran has been so close to the bomb....for 25 years

Just scare mongering tactics. As if Iran would be using material at Natanz to detonate a nuclear bomb.

Only a moron would use its declared material.

What can be done?

Dont sign and remain fully sanctioned with a weakened economy
Or sign in the hope they won't screw us over to be able to import/export freely and unfreeze the 10s of billions of dollars that are frozen.
Issue was after 1990, instead of courting Western firms and banks to make investments in Iran like Turkey did. Iran chose to be stuck in revolutionary thinking mode while China choose to be more proactive even though they didn’t like western culture either.

Not saying Iran could have been China today (far from it), but it would have had a lot more connections and trade with the West, which would have insulated it better from being cut off from the global economy. It could have used the extra foreign investment and ToT to build its resistance economy and its own domestic industry much like China did (and Turkey to an extent).

Instead, it decided to forgo foreign investment and lived off of oil income with the thinking that oil could never be sanctioned. That the world needed oil too much to shoot itself in the foot (higher oil prices) to punish Iran. Well that was a terrible gamble.

Anyway the past is the past. Iran needs to access to its foreign reserves. Even if Future US President (Trump or DeSantis) rips up JCPOA 2.0, iran will have brought over 100B USD back into the country which is very helpful.
 
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aryobarzan

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Iran does not need trade to prosper Turkey does...With JCPOA 1.0 dead people are talking JCPOA 2.0..Iran needs no JCPOA...Iran needs no trade...Iran has everything internally to prosper. A high living standard is achievable with Zero trade for a country such as Iran..With Trade you makes it faster...the Key is Sound management of resources...and yes sorry you will not have the latest version of Iphone but I assure you will live a good life without it..:azn::azn:
 

SalarHaqq

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The only reason why international firms tended to shun Iran despite the JCPOA being in force was the US threat of secondary sanctions. Banks tend to care less about duration of sanctions relief than other companies, since it's the latter which invest and have to bear the associated risk, while banks are better insured against such eventualities.

The Supreme Leader is not free to enact whatever he wants, political maneuvering from the liberals puts limits on his margin of action. When the moderates and reformists in the early years of the Rohani period were on the rise, the Leadership had no choice but to allow them to try their luck with the JCPOA, while knowing perfectly that the US is not going to respect its engagements. And so, the ground was prepared in advance for a revolutionary administration to take over once the failure of Rohani's approach would become obvious to all (not least due to their degraded economic situation). A revolutionary administration which will no longer place all its hopes on FDI and foreign trade, but will develop domestic production regardless and in spite of sanctions.

Iran doesn't intend to build nuclear weapons. But the mere breakout capability does scare zionists and the west. It exerts real pressure on them, as they cannot even tolerate an Iran with the remotely theoretical capability to acquire nuclear weapons on relatively short notice.

Regarding China one should not forget that it used to be a geostrategic partner of the west after the Sino-Soviet split and especially Nixon's trip to Beijing in 1972, all the way until Tian An Men. China had therefore as good as abandoned anti-imperial Resistance for some 17 years. It was the US which interrupted this relationship in 1989. Iran however has no interest in abandoning Resistance in the first place.

Then, China did not exactly build a resistance economy since there were not many significant sanctions placed on it and its industrialization was dependent on foreign investment and trade. Only in recent years has China started to conduct certain policies which might qualify as components of a resistance economy (such as increased reliance on the domestic market).

Regarding oil, Iran has been one of the most successful amongst oil-exporting nations when it comes to reducing its economic dependence on the latter commodity. Investments into the oil sector were (quasi deliberately) neglected vis a vis other sectors, and this is why the relevance of oil revenues in Iran's budget fell from some 80% to around 40% or less in 40 years. Which is remarkable, especially considering the inherent structural challenge of getting rid of oil dependence.

Actually foreign investments would surely have focused to a large extent on the oil and gas sector, that's where the bulk of them would have ended up in a sanction free environment. So sanctions turned out to be a blessing as far as breaking oil dependence is concerned. Had Iran not been sanctioned, it would probably have remained more or less as dependent on crude oil exports as it used to be prior to the Revolution.
 
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TheImmortal

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Regarding China one should not forget that it used to be a geostrategic partner of the west after the Sino-Soviet split and especially Nixon's trip to Beijing in 1972, all the way until Tian An Men. China had therefore as good as abandoned anti-imperial Resistance for some 17 years. It was the US which interrupted this relationship in 1989. Iran however has no interest in abandoning Resistance in the first place.
Dadash,

China never abandoned its resistance. China plays the long game and by long game I mean decades unlike the White man who thinks only about tomorrow.

China bears the scar of colonial imperialism And traumatic actions of neighbors (Japan) during its weak period. In order to be strong you need to have more than just fancy toys, you need to have economic reach to choke your enemies. In the past with Silk Road they had that power. China realized long ago, that the white man’s society has spiraled into mass consumerism and debauchery.

What better way than to supply the very society you had with more goods (material drugs) to destroy it?

They used capitalism against the white man. For insatiable greed to reduce costs and increase profits lead leading US and European companies to run into China and in their desperation to have access to cheap (slave) labor they signed away many technologies ToT. China gave them no choice, you want factory? Tell me how you build this. Anything it didn’t get thru this state extortion, it hacked and stole from them.

In order to be strong, China played along with the West. If it continued to do this faux resistance they would still be in the rice paddies. Iran reduced its oil income because it HAD NO OTHER CHOICE, not out of some smart energy reducing dependance agenda. You laud Iran for something it was forced to do. Meanwhile since 1980, China has taken 90% of its country out of poverty who were living on less than $1/month.

Iran’s resistance while admirable wasn’t the best available path. It has worked to an extent. But remember you are still negotiating with the people who killed the 2nd most powerful man in Iran. Iran still hasn’t been able to get its overdue oil revenues (billions) from SK instead resorting to childish piracy which went No where. SK isn’t afraid of US fancy toys, it’s afraid of its economic whip.

Instead you have the white man still saying “ok I’m going to give you some of your own money back, but I’m going to send it in the form of medical supplies”. How embarrassing for us in 2021, that we had to get our money back from the EU via approved goods. As if we are children who cannot be trusted with our allowance. Is this what resistance looks like?

Germany fought 2 World Wars to control Europe and failed. In 2021 it’s controls EU with its economic might alone and zero soldiers.

You want to resist? Build an economy that will force the white man to trade with you. Because the white man will sell his own mother let alone his country to make a dollar of profit. Look at how they all kiss up to China and look the other way to all the “education camps” it has sent up. Meanwhile they crucify Iran for hanging drug traffickers who destroy families and weaken Iran’s society.
 

Sineva

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Reading this one gets the feeling that its less about the west supposedly trying to "pressure" iran to return to the negotiations,because frankly at this point theres really little that it can pressure iran with,than it is the west desperately trying to convince itself that it still has other options in the event that iran doesnt bother to return to the table.

US, allies step up pressure on Iran to return to nuke talks
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...0c5134-2df1-11ec-b17d-985c186de338_story.html

WASHINGTON — The United States and its closest partners are stepping up pressure on Iran to return to stalled nuclear negotiations, warning that it will face greater international isolation, new economic penalties and possibly military action if it forges ahead with its atomic program.

In a series of high-level diplomatic meetings this week in Washington, U.S.. European, Israeli and Arab officials agreed on the need to make clear to Iran that its continued resistance to rejoining the talks in Vienna will not be ignored or left unpunished.

The consensus comes amid growing concerns that Tehran is not serious about returning to the negotiations aimed at bringing both Iran and the United States back into compliance with the languishing landmark 2015 nuclear deal that former President Donald Trump withdrew from three years later.

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It also comes as the Biden administration, which had made rejoining the accord a priority in its first months in office, and others become increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for such negotiations even if they do resume.

Iran was at the top of the agenda in all the meetings that brought together top diplomats from the European Union, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, according to officials who participated, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud and Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah Bin Zayed.

The U.S. special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, is continuing the Iran conversation with Gulf Arab states this weekend, while the head of the United Nations’ atomic watchdog, Rafael Grossi, will be in Washington next week for further discussions.


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Iran has hinted it’s ready to return to indirect negotiations with the U.S. but has not yet committed to a date. The EU, which has been charged with organizing the talks, has reported that Iran may not be willing to do so anytime soon and wants to meet with Borrell and others in Brussels before returning to Vienna.
As the new Iranian government led by hardline President Ebrahim Raisi delays, it has continued to blow through limits on it nuclear activities that had been constrained by the deal, including enriching uranium to higher levels. This has alarmed U.S. officials who fear that if such activity continues, a return to the 2015 deal may be pointless.

Borrell, whose top aide just returned from a visit to Tehran to gauge the position of the government, said he is willing to meet with Iranians ahead of a resumption in the Vienna talks. But he said enough time had already passed for Raisi and his team, which took office in August, to prepare.

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“I’m ready to do that if they want to come to Brussels. But time is pressing,” Borrell told reporters Friday. “I understand that the new government requires time to study the file, to instruct the negotiation team, but this time has already passed. It’s time to go back to the negotiations.”
Asked about the possibility of a failure in negotiations and what might follow — something often referred to as “Plan B” — Borrell replied: “I don’t want to think about ‘Plan Bs.’ No ‘Plan B’ that I could imagine would be a good one.”

“We’re in a very dangerous place,” Prince Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, told reporters at a separate news conference Friday, noting Iran’s accelerating nuclear work. “I think we need to focus on a quick resumption of talks (and) suspension of these activities by Iran.”

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After meeting Lapid on Wednesday, Blinken offered a bleak assessment of the situation. In a rare acknowledgment by the U.S. that it is looking at what to do in the event diplomacy with Iran fails, he said the window for Iran to return to the talks is closing but declined to give a date at which it would be too late.

“Time is running short,” he said. “We are prepared to turn to other options if Iran doesn’t change course, and these consultations with our allies and partners are part of it. We will look at every option to deal with the challenge posed by Iran.”
Lapid was more blunt, raising anew Israel’s warnings that it will act, with military force if necessary, to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.
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“There are moments when nations must use force to protect the world from evil,” Lapid said. “If a terror regime is going to acquire a nuclear weapon we must act. We must make clear that the civilized world won’t allow it. If the Iranians don’t believe the world is serious about stopping them, they will race to the bomb.”


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A senior Israeli official who participated in the talks told reporters that Lapid’s visit to Washington, which also included meetings with Vice President Kamala Harris and national security adviser Jake Sullivan, “was a very intimate discussion about what should be done” if Iran refuses to engage or engage seriously.
The official said Israel was pleased that the Biden administration was hardening its position and said Israel believes it is “important to give (Iran) the feeling of encirclement.”
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Speaking ahead of his visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Malley, the U.S. envoy, said the Biden administration’s preferred approach remains a diplomatic one. He stressed that consultations are picking up on other options.
“We will be prepared to adjust to a different reality in which we have to deal with all options to address Iran’s nuclear program if it’s not prepared to come back,” he said. “There is every possibility that Iran will choose a different path, and we need to coordinate with Israel and other partners in the region.”
 

Nasr

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American and Western governments are retarded if they think Iran would ever bother to return to the farce which was suppose to be a Nuke Deal which is mutually beneficial. That Nuke Deal or any others that follow are being pushed by the West on Iran, to protect their illegitimate child (zionist-israel). Iran should not interact with those who are defacto Zionist Slave-States (america, britain, france, netherlands, germany, belgium, canada, australia). Talk to the owner of these dog-countries, the Zionists, who seem to hide like snakes tucked away in the dark.
 

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