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The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

aryobarzan

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After reading the IAEA reports that Yavar pointed out (Yes i read all freaking 20 pages..lol)..you realize how many experiments and tests Iran did to master all elements of building the nuclear device itself . They mastered Exploding Bridge Wire (EBW), they simulated and then tested a device without Uranium Metal ..used Tungsten instead of Uranium , they simulated the implosion ..they did so many individual experiments and these experiments are the ones IAEA knows about ..many other tests they do not know....and these carried out beyond 2003.

So now I am a firm believer They have it..they know it works..how many we do not know....Trump knew it....sanctions are just to ensure HEU metal does not get produced in large quantities.
 

Arian

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After reading the IAEA reports that Yavar pointed out (Yes i read all freaking 20 pages..lol)..you realize how many experiments and tests Iran did to master all elements of building the nuclear device itself . They mastered Exploding Bridge Wire (EBW), they simulated and then tested a device without Uranium Metal ..used Tungsten instead of Uranium , they simulated the implosion ..they did so many individual experiments and these experiments are the ones IAEA knows about ..many other tests they do not know....and these carried out beyond 2003.

So now I am a firm believer They have it..they know it works..how many we do not know....Trump knew it....sanctions are just to ensure HEU metal does not get produced in large quantities.
Sanctions are in place to slow down Iran's progress and press our economy to the point of collapse. The US has decided to deal with Iran the same way it did with the Soviet Union. They will isolate Iran and give Iran such a bad public image that Iran would eventually collapse from within.
 

Shawnee

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Sanctions are in place to slow down Iran's progress and press our economy to the point of collapse. The US has decided to deal with Iran the same way it did with the Soviet Union. They will isolate Iran and give Iran such a bad public image that Iran would eventually collapse from within.
Two ways to handle sanctions:

1. China way:
You overcome the sanctions economically and establish deterrence and you will get a Mao deal, which further strengthens you.

2. Soviet way:
You envy higher quality of life after you fail to overcome the sanctions. You deal out of despair and it is the Gorbachev deal.
 

Arian

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Two ways to handle sanctions:

1. China way:
You overcome the sanctions economically and establish deterrence and you will get a Mao deal, which further strengthens you.

2. Soviet way:
You envy higher quality of life after you fail to overcome the sanctions. You deal out of despair and it is the Gorbachev deal.
I would rather take the China path, but unfortunately the evidence seems to be pointing towards the Soviet way.
 

WudangMaster

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Two ways to handle sanctions:

1. China way:
You overcome the sanctions economically and establish deterrence and you will get a Mao deal, which further strengthens you.

2. Soviet way:
You envy higher quality of life after you fail to overcome the sanctions. You deal out of despair and it is the Gorbachev deal.
The pessimistic in me greatly fears the extremely likely soviet scenario, as there are bloated roaches inside the country who dream of this...
 

Shawnee

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The pessimistic in me greatly fears the extremely likely soviet scenario, as there are bloated roaches inside the country who dream of this...
We have both types. The fear is their children who are aghazadeh.

Positive signs are improvements in domestic industrialization.
 
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aryobarzan

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Guys...We are way more industrialized than our other neighbor (I do not mention the name).....Way ahead of any one around us...so relax...after doing that "tech thread" i realize how far advanced Iran is compared to assembly house next door...

Iran needs to boost GDP..the stuff is being built but it needs to be sold outside also if GDP is to go up..But first lets hope all this is not destroyed by a war with the US....We need less politics and more economy....hope the next government can re-orient things a bit towards economy.
 

Stryker1982

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A latent yet undeclared Iranian nuclear capability would further help explain why both the Americans and Israelis have been so thoroughly against any sort of direct confrontation. Also it would explain why Yavar is so confident (over the years) in his views about Iran having the bomb already.
I had absolutely no idea and throughout my life have never seen a suggestion that natural Uranium-238 could also be fissile under the right conditions. As far as I'm aware no country has ever weaponized natural uranium so it certainly is something Iran might have already done lol...... and almost 20 years ago among many other crazy experiments.
After reading the IAEA reports that Yavar pointed out (Yes i read all freaking 20 pages..lol)..you realize how many experiments and tests Iran did to master all elements of building the nuclear device itself . They mastered Exploding Bridge Wire (EBW), they simulated and then tested a device without Uranium Metal ..used Tungsten instead of Uranium , they simulated the implosion ..they did so many individual experiments and these experiments are the ones IAEA knows about ..many other tests they do not know....and these carried out beyond 2003.

So now I am a firm believer They have it..they know it works..how many we do not know....Trump knew it....sanctions are just to ensure HEU metal does not get produced in large quantities.
We can thank Ahmadinejad for this. Sorely missed.
 

Arian

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I had absolutely no idea and throughout my life have never seen a suggestion that natural Uranium-238 could also be fissile under the right conditions. As far as I'm aware no country has ever weaponized natural uranium so it certainly is something Iran might have already done lol...... and almost 20 years ago among many other crazy experiments.
Uranium-238 does not give you enough free neutrons to start the chain reaction. What he meant is probably that they used natural uranium for a cold test, not a real test.

There are different designs for nuclear bombs. The simplest one (known as the gun type) creates the critical mass required for an explosion by joining two sub-critical masses that are usually fit together as a hollow uranium bullet and a target uranium piece that fills the hollow one. Once joined, the chain reaction starts. This design was used in the Little Boy by the Americans.

The other one, which documents released about the AMAD Project suggest that it is the design that Iran was pursuing before 2003, was used in the Fat Man by the Americans after the Little Boy. They used plutonium as the fissile material. Critical mass is achieved by uniform compression of the fissile material from all directions, i.e. implosion.

The problem with the implosion technique is that your shock waves must come from all directions almost simultaneously. If one direction moves slower and your shock waves don't converge uniformly, you won't be able to compress your fissile material to reach critical mass. This should be done in a matter of nano-seconds. That's the challenge. Apparently, Iran had made some progress in this regard before 2003, the extent of which remains unclear.
The video about those Spherical metal containers that use explosive effects to fully curves them.....Is that a signal that Iran has mastered the EBW detonations and now is using it in an industrial manner (also as cover for EBW tech development)...If you can do it for industrial spheres doing it for a Nuclear device is even easier..Micro second control of explosion (for industrial use) or implosion (for nuclear device).
I was thinking of making this more clear if that is the case and put it in the "middle east Tech thread.
It's impossible to tell. Unless someone has a very deep and detailed knowledge of what they do there with actual numbers. Microseconds might work for creating spherical containers, but for a nuclear implosion device, it should be done in nanoseconds. So, doing it for a nuclear device is actually more difficult.
 
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TheImmortal

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Two ways to handle sanctions:

1. China way:
You overcome the sanctions economically and establish deterrence and you will get a Mao deal, which further strengthens you.

2. Soviet way:
You envy higher quality of life after you fail to overcome the sanctions. You deal out of despair and it is the Gorbachev deal.
What a gross over simplification of the “China way”.

What turned China around was embarce of the West. It was determined to become the leading manufacturer and cheap labor for Western goods and services. It offered its citizens as slaves to the Western Capitalism Empire and in the process made it a key component of Western economies and thus unable to be sanctioned. While having this advantage it rapidly developed its own industry thru IP theft and coercion and ToT from Western firms.

Compare this to Iran’s infamous “Neither East nor West slogan” after the Revolution and you can see why the GDP of the two countries since 1979 has been so so different.

So Iran has zero chance of adopting the China approach. As what led China to become the heartbeat of the world was dirt cheap slave labor it offered to the West.

Iran has zero leverage over Western economies, if it was 1970’s when black gold (oil) was king than maybe the story would be different. But today Iran has nothing to offer the West in order to break the sanctions regime. All it has is a nuclear program which it is slowly giving away for pennies on the dollar.

Trumps “maximum pressure” campaign showed that if the US decides to change its mind and sanction Iran than the world will follow. Who cares about symbolic victories at the UN when Iran is for all purposes cut off from the world?

Many on here cheered the Arms embargo expiring in Oct. Where are the weapons deals? It’s been 3 months not a single weapons deal announced!
 

Blue In Green

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What a gross over simplification of the “China way”.

What turned China around was embarce of the West. It was determined to become the leading manufacturer and cheap labor for Western goods and services. It offered its citizens as slaves to the Western Capitalism Empire and in the process made it a key component of Western economies and thus unable to be sanctioned. While having this advantage it rapidly developed its own industry thru IP theft and coercion and ToT from Western firms.

Compare this to Iran’s infamous “Neither East nor West slogan” after the Revolution and you can see why the GDP of the two countries since 1979 has been so so different.

So Iran has zero chance of adopting the China approach. As what led China to become the heartbeat of the world was dirt cheap slave labor it offered to the West.

Iran has zero leverage over Western economies, if it was 1970’s when black gold (oil) was king than maybe the story would be different. But today Iran has nothing to offer the West in order to break the sanctions regime. All it has is a nuclear program which it is slowly giving away for pennies on the dollar.

Trumps “maximum pressure” campaign showed that if the US decides to change its mind and sanction Iran than the world will follow. Who cares about symbolic victories at the UN when Iran is for all purposes cut off from the world?

Many on here cheered the Arms embargo expiring in Oct. Where are the weapons deals? It’s been 3 months not a single weapons deal announced!
You'll probably ignore this (as usual) but what's your suggestion then?

Should Iran just give in and accept what the West wants which is what Israel wants (as America is working on Israel's behalf): or should Iran continue to endure the onslaught given that at-least some of Iran's aims in the region are worth fighting for namely; (These are what I perceive to be Iran's regional aspirations, feel free to add, remove or critique).
  1. Pushing back against Israeli expansion (or at-least trying to).
  2. Championing for the wavering Palestinian people.
  3. Providing a counter-balance against the Gulf Arab States who support Sunni fundamentalists the region over.
  4. Continuing the use of nuclear energy that is legal.
  5. Helping oppressed people in the region fight against their oppressors.
  6. Making sure Lebanon doesn't fall under Israeli occupation.
  7. Ensuring Syria's safety and integrity (to the best of their ability).
  8. Increasing the National defense capacity of the Iranian nation by use of indigenous means.
  9. Expand the Missile production infrastructure

There is little arguing against what you said about Iranian leverage against the West. America and Europe do not rely on Iran for jack and are very rich/resourceful with or without Iran's existence or assistance in any matter. Yet Iran is still a nut they haven't (yet) cracked which is the main driving force behind the formation of the P5+1 and the implementation of the JCPOA accord.

" Many on here cheered the Arms embargo expiring in Oct. Where are the weapons deals? It’s been 3 months not a single weapons deal announced!"

-- I think It's pretty clear that Iran is not flush with cash and cannot go on even a modest weapons spending spree without incurring both heavy financial and geo-political ramifications. The lack of money alone is pretty bad, but it has still been my long standing take that countries who are now legally allowed to buy&sell weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran will not do so out of sheer fear of negative stigma and other secondary effects that will follow any such deals (sanctions from America are the primary concern here). Moreover, the idea of a totally demonized country (Iran) coming to your nation for jets or tanks or whatever, is really bad on a the global scene (optics) as the Americans will use that as leverage whenever and wherever they can (standard fear-mongering tactics). I should also add that neither Russia or China want to be the ones the rest of the Middle-East points fingers too when bringing up the subject of "balance of regional power". In any scenario where either country sells much needed Aerial superiority platforms to Iran (supposedly upsetting the balance of regional military power). Both their respective regional aspirations will be under jeopardy since now they've given Iran (their enemy/rival) more of a means to defend itself and attack back if necessary and other countries will be less receptive to furthering their wants (Russian or Chinese regional goals). Iran just is too much of a problem for them where prospect of selling offensive weapon systems is concerned. Iran really needs to gain access to some sort of TOT on engines and other avionic systems for its own indigenous jet program, as outright buying new platforms causes a huge geopolitical storm that I don't think Russia or China want to be involved in, just my honest take on the matter.

I guess what I'm really trying to say here is simple. Iran's national defense, more of less rests in the hands of Iranians themselves for the most part, as it always has. Criticizing the lack of signed weapons contracts with outside countries (given all the bad-blood and history) is sort of uncalled for, also let us be real here. If Iran were to sign any sort of weapons deal, they'd have to be in secret and (imo) 3 months isn't that long of time since the lifting of the Weapons embargo. Now if you were to say 3 years or more, then that concern would hold more merit here since that is a comparatively larger timeframe in which nothing was done about acquiring new weapons, thus warranting a more just scrutiny of Iranian inactivity. But 3 months is hardly enough time to hold against Iran for not getting anything into motion. For all we know Iran could be intensely negotiating with Russia or China on such acquisitions but they've haven't yet made a decision to go public with the proceedings. And they don't have to disclose it to begin with.

" Trumps “maximum pressure” campaign showed that if the US decides to change its mind and sanction Iran than the world will follow. Who cares about symbolic victories at the UN when Iran is for all purposes cut off from the world?"

-- Very important point you bring up and people really do need to understand this. Iran is far more isolated where it matters most and those who think it to be otherwise are not in the right mindset. Unfortunate as it is, this is the hand Iran has been dealt. America is a declining world power, fair enough, but that doesn't take away from Iran's lack of global outreach/influence nor America's continued (yet waning) global footprint (in multiple disciplines).

Question is simple, how does Iran plan on breaking this death-grip America unjustly imposed on it and reach out. Can it even do such a thing in the first-place? My assertion is that, no they cannot really. America's financial clout, control over SWIFT and threat of sanctions scares away many prospective buyers of anything related to Iran. This has always been a problem.

" So Iran has zero chance of adopting the China approach. As what led China to become the heartbeat of the world was dirt cheap slave labor it offered to the West."

-- 100% agreed, China's rise and Iran's current situation are not even remotely similar. I think this is attributed to a weird phenomenon in which people think that if all the sanctions currently placed were to be lifted, Iran will all of the sudden be like China in wealth, economy, military etc.... Obviously this isn't based in any sort of respectable reality and people really need to get a good grasp on what is really going on. At best when all or most of the sanctions are lifted, living conditions, economy, and currency will be 'better' but things are still pretty bad internally due to corruption and all the other factors that contribute to a nations domestic issues (whatever they maybe). And the country just becoming 'better' will not happen in a short amount of time. You'll still need strong national and local leadership to enact changes that will positively affect the everyday lives of Iranians.

idk, lots of problems with little solutions outside of "Tough it out" (don't even know if this is possible long-term) or just honorably capitulate.

I remember some time ago you said (in which I agreed) that Iran has no choice but to negotiate with the Americans as continuing this path will cause great harm in the future (or something to that effect).
 
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yavar

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After reading the IAEA reports that Yavar pointed out (Yes i read all freaking 20 pages..lol)..you realize how many experiments and tests Iran did to master all elements of building the nuclear device itself . They mastered Exploding Bridge Wire (EBW), they simulated and then tested a device without Uranium Metal
bit more if interest you to have better understanding how it works

building nuclear device and weight 500 KG or up to 500KG it acquires 90 to 98 enriched uranium 235 or Platinum depending on type up to 300 KG to 400KG and coversion metal core of nuclear weaponnisation

so usually use neutron initiator and in first Generation nuclear weapon ( uranium or Platinum ) to set off nuclear reaction , so they use TOM initiator or neutron initiator as detonator



no let say you want bigger yield, so you increase fissile material to 1000KG one Ton, if again you use neutron initiator to set off nuclear chain reaction the result will be insufficient

such detonator (neutron initiator) with anything heavier than 500KG will not be able to set off full nuclear reaction and let say there is 1000 KG fissile material such detonator used only 300 KG or 400 KG will get participate to detonat in nuclear reaction and the 700 KG will be shattered to air and wasted as particles.


this is when Exploding-bridgewire detonator comes in.
Exploding-bridgewire detonator ( used in third Generation nuclear weapons and Thermo )

with using such detonator (Exploding-bridgewire detonator) you can get efficient nuclear chain reaction and be able to set off bigger fissile material and as result get bigger yield and bigger destractive energey out of it .

 
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Draco.IMF

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thanks for the articles, very interesting informations
So Iran by 2003 finished its work already at two-thirds, and we are here now, nearly 20 years later, so everyone can imagine where Iran is standing now..
My thoughts -> ICBM with nuclear MIRV's is withing Irans capabilities...since some time
 

aryobarzan

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bit more if interest you to have better understanding how it works

building nuclear device and weight 500 KG or up to 500KG it acquires 90 to 98 enriched uranium 235 or Platinum depending on type up to 300 KG to 400KG and coversion metal core of nuclear weaponnisation

so usually use neutron initiator and in first Generation nuclear weapon ( uranium or Platinum ) to set off nuclear reaction , so they use TOM initiator or neutron initiator as detonator



no let say you want bigger yield, so you increase fissile material to 1000KG one Ton, if again you use neutron initiator to set off nuclear chain reaction the result will be insufficient

such detonator (neutron initiator) with anything heavier than 500KG will not be able to set off full nuclear reaction and let say there is 1000 KG fissile material such detonator used only 300 KG or 400 KG will get participate to detonat in nuclear reaction and the 700 KG will be shattered to air and wasted as particles.


this is when Exploding-bridgewire detonator comes in.
Exploding-bridgewire detonator ( used in third Generation nuclear weapons and Thermo )

with using such detonator (Exploding-bridgewire detonator) you can get efficient nuclear chain reaction and be able to set off bigger fissile material and as result get bigger yield and bigger destractive energey out of it .

Thank you again for clarifying the "Gun type" device (first generation nuclear device) to EBW type (third Gen device)....It is now clear how important it has been the mastering of the EBW Tech which iran did in 2003 and how critical EBW tech is for having a small (less that 500 kg) warhead deployable nuclear device with high yield ..Well done to Iranian Scientists and engineers.:cheesy:
 

yavar

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We have both types. The fear is their children who are aghazadeh.

Positive signs are improvements in domestic industrialization.

بیانیه تروئیکای اروپایی در خصوص پس گرفتن قطعنامه پیشنهادی علیه ایران؛ همچنان از اقدامات ایران نگرانیم


and then After

نازنین زاغری آزاد شد

this what you expect from Rouhani government
3 months biden deal with IAEA
And back door dealing with EU

and it all for what ?

Iranian presidential election
 

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