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The Burning South: India-Pakistan conflict in 2026 - A hypothetical scenario simulated. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TROLLING OR JINGOISM

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Joe Shearer

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Gentlemen,

I am compelled by Clio to take you to a very dark period, and beg to be forgiven for that, for the way back to normal times is not known to me.

He Who Must Not Be Named, that four-letter word that leads a crazed segment of hominidae, has been re-elected. Convention demands that he retire, but he is anxious to hang on to his modest life-style, his role in world affairs, and to the feeling of power that he relishes.

It is the year 2024, and professionals employed to watch what is going on in India have found, in newspaper reports, in social media dominated by shrill bhakts, and in magazine articles and TV programme references, that a substantial civil engineering programme has been initiated in the country. As time passes, certain more details are available. Large military bases are being built, supplementing earlier constructions, at the following locations:
  1. Jammu
  2. Pathankot
  3. Amritsar
  4. Moga
  5. Bathinda
  6. Sirsa
  7. Jodhpur
  8. Jaisalmer
  9. Barmer
  10. Ahmedabad
  11. Bhuj
  12. Pune
It is not clear what they will house, but there is apparently planned to be accommodation for 20,000 to 25,000 families at each location. Particularly large are locations at Pathankot, Moga, Bathinda, Jodhpur and Ahmedabad.
 

Joe Shearer

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INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #2
OCTOBER 15, 2025.

There are reports of significant troop movements in India.

Precise details are being sought, but it appears that there is movement of artillery units from Ambala to Moga, and also, separately, into Bathinda, from some other location. More details will be submitted once available.
 

Joe Shearer

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INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #3
November 3, 2025

Share prices of Bharat Forge have shot up by nearly 20% in the last two months, to a current price of Rs. 990.00 per share (avg. price 740.00 previous six months' moving average). There are reports that there is a secretive PPP arrangement that has been entered into in great confidentiality between the company, GoI/MoD and an unknown collaborator abroad. Details are being sought.

There is also a sharp increase in Tata Motors share prices, and a related story in the markets that there has been a major shift in rotary wing aircraft production, and Tata Advanced Systems has got a major order for manufacture of light attack helicopters from GoI.

INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #4
NOVEMBER 9, 2025.

It is reliably learnt that the 1st Armoured Division is moving from Patiala to Moga. Also, the 31st Armoured Division is moving from Jhansi to Ambala.
 
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Joe Shearer

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INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #5
NOVEMBER 19, 2025.

VERY URGENT.

ENTIRE INDIAN 29TH INFANTRY DIVISION HAS BEEN TRANSFERRED FROM PATHANKOT TO JODHPUR. MOVEMENT HAS COMMENCED AND WILL TAKE THREE MONTHS TO COMPLETE.
 

Joe Shearer

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INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #6
NOVEMBER 27, 2025.

Brig. Abhay Panthaki, of the Army Air Corps, has been promoted and is to take charge of the Technology Review and Acquisition Committee, which will coordinate all empowered purchases allowed to Corps Commanders and above as a supplement to the normal MoD bidding process. It has been notified that Major General Panthaki will head an all-services group that will have the authority to enter into joint commercial and technical arrangements with Indian industry and overseas associates, for a financial value that is not known in public.
 

Joe Shearer

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INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #7
NOVEMBER 30, 2025.

It is reliably learnt that 22nd Infantry Division is transferred from Meerut to Jodhpur. 41st Artillery Division is transferred from Pune to Jodhpur.
 

Joe Shearer

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I hope to be able to curdle your blood by the time the divisions roll into place. If we map the new hypothetical ORBAT, it will match the PA ORBAT in terms of linear continuity, but with fairly substantial nodes, especially (finally) in the Jammu/Nagrota/Samba/Udhampur, the Moga cluster, and the awful build-up at Bhatinda.

What a fun, Sir-jee!:enjoy:

INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #8
DECEMBER 03, 2025.

6th (independent) Armoured Brigade has been transferred from Suratgarh to Moga.
 

Joe Shearer

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INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #9
DECEMBER 12, 2025

Major General Panthaki is leading a combined TRAC/DRDO/private industry team to Tokyo for detailed discussions with the Japanese Self-Defence Ministry about technical collaboration and technology transfers. The team is said to be on tour for two weeks, of which one week will be spent in Osaka.
 

Joe Shearer

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INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #10
JANUARY 28, 2026.

The explosion in Chandigarh has led to complete curfew in the state of Punjab.

INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #11
FEBRUARY 4, 2026.

24th RAPID has been rushed to Chandigarh.

INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #12
FEBRUARY 15, 2026.

In a surprising move, the Indian Army has transferred 4th, 12th and 36th RAPID from Allahabad/ Prayagraj, Sagar and Jodhpur to the Pathankot area. Exact locations will be known later.
 
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FuturePAF

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Joe, we’re you in the Indian military in a leadership role? I ask to know how plausible this scenario could be to enable better responses?

Btw, does Indian anticipate these troop movement will be picked up, or is that something they want?
 

Joe Shearer

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Brief pause to enable posts and changes to be grasped.
Joe, we’re you in the Indian military in a leadership role? I ask to know how plausible this scenario could be to enable better responses?

Btw, does Indian anticipate these troop movement will be picked up, or is that something they want?
No comment.

You do realise that these movements are apparently being reported by an agency consolidating available information and digesting it for decision makers? It is not an IA operation.

The IA does know, however, that the Pakistanis have the names of COs of their major units at their fingertips. Every precaution is taken to keep things confidential, but there is also a down-to-earth understanding of that very libertine western social dictum, "Everybody knows everything."

INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #13
FEBRUARY 26, 2026.

26TH Indian Infantry Division has moved from Pathankot to Jodhpur.

16th Infantry Division has moved from Sri Ganganagar to Barmer.

9th Infantry Division has moved from Meerut to either Ahmedabad or Jodhpur; it is not clearly known yet.
 
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Joe Shearer

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INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #14
March 1, 2026.

The GoI has apparently come to a contractual understanding with M/s Bharat Forge to put several thousand 105 mm field guns onto motorised platforms, converting them into self-propelled field guns. This is apparently an outcome of the TRAC delegation trip to East Asia. Sources for these numbers of guns is not known. They considerably exceed the number in Indian Army inventory.
 

Joe Shearer

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INTELLIGENCE SUMMARY
BULLETIN #15
March 8, 2026.

18th RAPID has been transferred from Kota to Pathankot.
There are now four RAPID formations near Pathankot.
 
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