• Monday, November 20, 2017

The Black Swan Event?

Discussion in 'Pakistan's Internal Security' started by Path-Finder, Jan 25, 2017.

  1. Path-Finder

    Path-Finder SENIOR MEMBER

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    Has anyone seen todays Live with Dr Shahid Masood? It is about a piece written in Foreign Policy Magazine/Think tank



    bk swan.jpg
    bk swan2.jpg
     
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2017
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  2. tarrar

    tarrar SENIOR MEMBER

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    Something really bad on its way. On the other hand, corrupt & treacherous politicians are clearly not concerned about Pakistan issues, all they are worried about is corruption, DEMOCRAZY & their terrorist political wings.
     
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  3. newb3e

    newb3e FULL MEMBER

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    Why always blame polticians? Yes they are evil but why not blame army and judiciary? Army has total control over everything in this country its been this way since 1947 what have they done to fix anything? We talk about politicians being corrupt and make amry some saint! A small example look at fwos work on khi-hyd motorway its a fucking disgrace and every km smell of corruption! Because of fwo ie army people have lost life because they never bothered about making safe and humane diversion!

    This country was fucked since its inception we the people are just tools!
     
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  4. H!TchHiker

    H!TchHiker SENIOR MEMBER

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    We select politicians to be held accountable and they in turn select Army heads and Judiciary...So yes politicians are to be blamed..
    We the people are fools ..Pakistan was much better till the politicians hold the rope..
     
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  5. graphican

    graphican ELITE MEMBER

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    This is ridiculous but allow me to mention it anyway. These 4 guys are also talking about political assassinations and then religious confrontation issue in 2017.



    In order for the even to be big enough, by definition, it must affect a very large segment within the country that has ability to create "swan effect".

    Who can it be?
    • Christians? Not in big numbers, they are also not a pressure group.
    • Ahmadies? Not in big number. Have no direct influence within the country.
    • Hindus or Sikhs? Not in big number - not a pressure group either.
    • Shias - Significant in number, some 20% of country's population and scattered across the country. They could be the hit list.
    • Sunnis - 80% population but they won't see sectarian angle unless attackers were open and known to be from the opposite scat.
    In my analysis, Shias could be on the target list and the attackers could be from the banned Sunni organisations who now have new homes in Afghanistan.

    What city?
    • Big cities only
    • Cities which are in the centre of Pakistan. I am ruling Karachi out as that is away from rest of the country and things which develop in Karachi stay there. In order for anything to be big enough, it would have to be in the middle of the country.
    • Lahore - Less likely, it has never been centre of religious confrontations.
    • Rawalpindi - a possible candidate. Has significant Shia population and it has history of religious confrontation. Also anything which happens there can affect Islamabad automatically.
    • Multan - a possible candidate, has considerable Shia population but doesn't have a history of religious confrontation.
    • Faisalabad - less likely as majority of population is workers, they are Punjabi and less aggressive.
    • Peshawar - Army has significant presence in FATA. Because of their presence, any -ve situation would lose its momentum quickly.
    So in my analysis, Shias in Multan or Rawalpindi could be under attack. All in my humble opinion only.
     
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  6. Goenitz

    Goenitz FULL MEMBER

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    trump can only intervene if attack on us embassy occurs or especially in a us embassy held event/ceremony where all dignitaries are present..
     
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  7. newb3e

    newb3e FULL MEMBER

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    Lols politicians never select army heads! Atleast not in Pakistan!

    The whole system is fucked and is only their to protect corrupt bastards! Be it politicians army or judges everyone is fucking looting our country.
     
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  8. PaklovesTurkiye

    PaklovesTurkiye SENIOR MEMBER

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    Or may be devastating attack by terrorists or cyber attack on our nuclear installations...???

    Big political assassination? Blast inside Parliament/provincial assemblies?

    Or major attack on our air/naval bases/GHQ ?

    WE NEED TO STAY RED ALERT....FROM ALL FUKIN SIDES
     
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  9. mzeeshanfahd

    mzeeshanfahd FULL MEMBER

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    let me guess ..... something on the lines of URI but far worst consequences .... as it involves india ...... or if india is not involved then a major attack on GHQ/AHQ/NHQ ....... all indicators are already pointing in these two directions ..... I would give first possibility the most probability because the of the selection of words in the last paragraph .... let this "next USSR" move its not their issue I am sure they will make a move but actual issue is then what will we do ............. "apologise .... like we did at OBL time or like salala .... chief will pay a visit at boarder and deliver a speech saying shoot those ..... if it happens next time ...... " or may keeping quite is easier you know who can ask when you have the greatest authority .
     
    Last edited: Jan 26, 2017
  10. truthseeker2010

    truthseeker2010 SENIOR MEMBER

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    definitely the new COAS has toned down the momentum created by Raheel sharif..............
     
  11. Taimoor Khan

    Taimoor Khan SENIOR MEMBER

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    With orange man at the helm in Washington, there could be another 9/11 type event somewhere outside Pakistan, near or far, and they will somehow manage to find links with Pakistan.

    We need to achieve ICBM capability asap without wasting much time so the situations like "are you with us or against us" can be avoided.
     
  12. PaklovesTurkiye

    PaklovesTurkiye SENIOR MEMBER

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    The thing in my mind is that if US ever threatens Pakistan again just like she did at the time of 9/11.....Pakistan should fuk up the current world order and arm major Muslim countries with NUKES (Selling them nuke technology)
     
  13. Taimoor Khan

    Taimoor Khan SENIOR MEMBER

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    We should have enough strength to tell anyone on their face, that their problem is not ours. If anything bad happen on their soil, its their problem not ours. Nuclear Pakistan didnt go about telling the world after APS attack, that you are either with us or against us, so why should we jeopardize our interests for someone else. ICBMs are must to shield us from getting bullied through false flags.
     
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  14. Lucky Breeze

    Lucky Breeze FULL MEMBER

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    Quite the reverse. This black swan theory could be applied on India against Pakistan.

    By Lt. Gen(R) Tariq Khan

    So what governs Indo-Pak relations? Is it Indian belligerence that contains an aggressive Pakistan or is it Pakistani deterrence that keeps India at bay? We shall never really know but one thing is certain, it is strongly influenced by the spontaneity of a sudden event. This event has some defining signatures: first, it would have to be something that happened in India to create an impact. An event in Pakistan has no apparent effect on an Indo-Pak relationship; probably because the political and military will have been severely compromised due to an image deficit. Second, it could be manufactured to create a cause-belief justifying military action against Pakistan. Third, it could be non-state actor operating independently whose agenda is to destabilize the region.
     
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  15. Taimoor Khan

    Taimoor Khan SENIOR MEMBER

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    I am also inclining towards some sort of false flag to rope Pakistan in.

    We must clear this present mess at the political level and get some new order in, strongly nationalist and patriotic to deal with the issues at hand, both internal and external. The present mess has been dragged on for far too long.