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The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.

ayodhyapati

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The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.
Can Bangladeshi "neutrality" be taken for granted?
Is it far fetched to assume Bangladesh is not neutral, and does pose a very minuscule but still possible threat to Pakistan?

Let's look at the facts:

1.0 Overall picture:
Bangladesh has supported India in all its military actions against Pakistan since 1971.
2.0 Military interoperability and alliance:
Bangladesh and India have a formal economic and military alliance , and a complete interoperability and mutual logistics support amongst their armed forces. Bangladesh and Indian armed forces ( particularly the Bangladeshi Navy) exercise and war game with their Indian armed forces counterparts regularly with an undisguised identification of who the "enemy " is.
A large batch of Bangladeshi army officers graduate from India's defense academies ( NDA, Khadakvasla, Indian Military Academy, Dehradun, OTS Madras, ) as well as undergoing advanced training at institutions such as Wellington Staff College. Sharing common equipment BAF maintenance and flying personnel are regularly trained in India.,

2.0 The diplomatic angle:
The Indian Pakistan military confrontations ( Siachen 1985, Operation Brasstacks 1987, Kargil 1999, 2002, 2019, LOC shelling ) have nowhere involved Bangladesh or in anyway affected Bangladeshi security, yet diplomatically Bangladesh has completely sided with India both at international forums such as the UN (or what's left of SAARC ) and on a one on one level echoing the Indian foreign ministry statements and condemning Pakistan.

3.0 Bangladeshi military activity against Pakistan
So far Bangladesh has limited its activity mainly to observers such as during Operations Brass Tacks (1987). Also the BAF takes a keen interest in downed Pakistani military aircraft such as the recovered debris of the PN Breguet Atlantic shot down inside Pakistani airspace by an IAF Mig 21 in 1999.
4. Open threats to Pakistan :
Particularly in 2019 and also before, there have threats made by the foreign office of Bangladesh against Pakistan, echoing the Indian Ministry of Defense and senior Indian Military officers. The threats have been made by the Bangladesh Foreign office only , unlike their ally where chiefs of the three armed forces wings have usually issued threats The Bangladeshi COAS, BAF, ACM, and BN Admiralty have not been making any comments so far.


But why would Bangladesh get involved in an Indian conflict with Pakistan. The simple answer in theory is that there is a mutual defense pact which is supposed to work both ways and India can ask Bangladesh and Bhutan ( and possibly Nepal) to join in a coalition in a war with Pakistan.

The next question is why would India want to involve Bangladesh and Bhutan in a war against Pakistan and would Bangladesh agree.
The answer is that for propaganda purposes India would very much like to have Bangladeshi forces fighting alongside ( deja vu 1971) even though Indian armed forces commanders know that the real impact of Bangladesh's participation in a war with Pakistan would be minimal. Showing a "coalition" is a great diplomatic and psychological warfare feat. Other countries have done this such as the USA who frequently coopts allies in its wars even though their contribution is minimal.
The USA brought Mongolian troops to fight in Iraq as part of the "coalition". The presence of the Mongols ( all 100 of them) was to demoralize the Iraqis recalling the sack of Baghdad by Hulaku Khan in 1258 C.E. The Mongol contingent left after several of their troops were killed by Iraqi resistance.
It's the famous "Us vs You" psychological stance.

Reasons for Bangladesh to join a war against Pakistan:
Economic, diplomatic and political compulsions do produce far fetched scenarios such as the current turn around by most Arab states in favor of Israel. As discussed elsewhere Bangladesh has a severe land and population problem and the solution lies in having open borders with India for population migration. Given the Hindutva rhetoric in India the only way Bangladesh can win over Indian nationalist sentiment is by being more "Hindutva" than the RSS itself.
Since the prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) it makes sense from a strategic point of view to symbolically join the war against Pakistan. Hopefully as a staunch ally a merger with India ( Sikkim style) will be more palatable to a Hindu majority India than it was in 1972 and 1975. The Hindutva regime in India would be closer to their dream of a greater India and it would ensure the Modi regime and its successor Yogi Aditynaths regime a solid electoral foundation going forward for centuries.
( Note: We could discuss Bangladesh's issues in separate thread)
The war game:
We have already war gamed the India Pakistan ultimate showdown scenario and how the war would escalate into a nuclear blood bath so this article is confined to a limited war initiated and planned by the India Bangladesh Axis for a diplomatic and military humiliation of Pakistan where the war would be brief and limited holding the threshold just short of a full Pakistani collapse where Pakistan would use nuclear weapons as a last desperate act of retaliation.
It's a different topic but the war would only be waged when Bangladesh and India believe that Pakistan is sufficiently isolated from its traditional West Asian alliance and economically weakened through international sanctions.
Going forward.
Bangladesh's contribution to India's war effort.
Realistically what would be Bangladesh's contribution to India's military actions on Pakistan's eastern borders.
Air support:
A few BAF Su 30s would probably be flying operations in support of the IAF within Indian airspace . Much of the BAF support would be from transport aircraft as both India and Bangladesh fly C130Js. BAF Mil 17s would probably pitch in. It is doubtful given the training and lack of war experience that BAF would carry out air strikes inside Pakistan, unless they can miraculously come with worthy successors to Rafique and Saiful Azam.
Naval support:
Bangladesh Navy would probably be assisting Indian Navy operations in the Palk Straits trying to intercept Pakistani maritime traffic en-route to China
Army support :
Bangladesh would probably like to avoid casualties hoping for a grand re-enactment of 1971 with the heavy lifting done by India.
BA units are unlikely to be involved in direct fighting especially as there is a severe danger of heavy casualties from a tactical nuclear strike. A few BA units might be positioned as reserves in the rear to function as an occupation force once a portion of the front collapses. India would like to keep the occupied areas under "Muslim" alliance control as their armor moves deeper towards other objectives.
Hopefully the presence of Muslim troops will deter a partisan Mujahid resistance.

The ultimate war game
Pakistan does not share borders with Bangladesh and so there are fewer ways Pakistan can retaliate in a limited conflict. Bangladesh's forces have a huge advantage operating from friendly Indian territory.
. Pakistani submarines would doubtless target Bangladeshi commercial maritime traffic through the Arabian sea and BAF aircraft operating in Indian airspace would be fair game. Bangladesh Army units stationed in the rear of the IB within artillery and MRLS range would definitely be targeted.
We could war game a huge number of scenarios elsewhere but to conclude with the question:

In an ultimate Apocalypse Pakistan would be targeting Kolkata. Would Pakistan strike Dhaka and the rest of Bangladesh as well, knowing that the vast majority of the civilian deaths would be of our so called "brethren in faith" ?
lol
fools are day dreaming .
 

Baibars_1260

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We have been monitoring Bengali social media for a long time. This is obviously beyond the scopes of our fellow PDF forum members.
It is gratifying to know. My only folly is the expectation of honesty from out PDF guests. Having worked and lived briefly in Bangladesh, the sentiments of the middle and newly rich upperclass Bangladeshis is pretty much in line with the government. In fact they are very honest about their views.

Young Pakistanis hardly think beyond fancy hardwares, Afghanistan, cricket and IT career these days. Our policy makers in Islamabad still suffer from a "guilty feeling" towards East Pakistan and that is also why they usually refrain from making anything public.
Which again is baffling. The 1973 Delhi Agreement and subsequent 1974 Apology should have ended the matter then so why the guilty conscience. Also why are we so much in awe over hyped up and manipulated economy performance s and social indices figures.
Pakistan is in a wartime economy having faced multiple devastating wars with Super Power involvement that would have broken any normal nation. We will recover and surpass. Are we to emulate our enemy and become a nation of tailors and export RMGs ? With the hostility of our much larger neighbor should we fold over and become their tailor?
What is there to be guilty about?

Then you have those secular /neo-liberal Pakistanis ( former Indo-Soviet agents) who want to hand Pakistan to NGOs.
Of course. Not just to NGOs but to
our friendly neighbor next door .
lol
fools are day dreaming .
Aap ko kyon khujli ho rahi hai?
Maamla hamara aur Bangladesh ka hai.
Trans: Why are you bothered? This concerns Bangladesh.
 

ayodhyapati

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It is gratifying to know. My only folly is the expectation of honesty from out PDF guests. Having worked and lived briefly in Bangladesh, the sentiments of the middle and newly rich upperclass Bangladeshis is pretty much in line with the government. In fact they are very honest about their views.


Which again is baffling. The 1973 Delhi Agreement and subsequent 1974 Apology should have ended the matter then so why the guilty conscience. Also why are we so much in awe over hyped up and manipulated economy performance s and social indices figures.
Pakistan is in a wartime economy having faced multiple devastating wars with Super Power involvement that would have broken any normal nation. We will recover and surpass. Are we to emulate our enemy and become a nation of tailors and export RMGs ? With the hostility of our much larger neighbor should we fold over and become their tailor?
What is there to be guilty about?



Of course. Not just to NGOs but to
our friendly neighbor next door .

Aap ko kyon khujli ho rahi hai?
Maamla hamara aur Bangladesh ka hai.
Trans: Why are you bothered? This concerns Bangladesh.
abdul bhai
tumhari khujli ka raaj hame pata hai . :D
india ke naam se bahut logo ki khujli shuru ho jati hai .
 

Baibars_1260

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abdul bhai
tumhari khujli ka raaj hame pata hai . :D
india ke naam se bahut logo ki khujli shuru ho jati hai .
Ganpatji
Khujli bahane to aap idhar aye hain
Kuch apney sameekaran ke samarth me tippani karen.
Aap ke sahyogi akele hi hum se jooj rahe hain..

Translation:
Speak up for your alliance. Your partners are tackling us alone.
 

nahtanbob

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Never dreamt that two South Asian nations with the second and third largest Muslim populations would be talking of nuking each other but unfortunately the scenario is possible.

As a Pakistani I don't relish this thought, and in fact most Indians don't relish this thought either.
Having the power, and testing it is a sobering thought.

Unfortunately, those who would ride piggy back on our enemies to harm us, and humiliate us underestimate our resolve to defend our land and our honor.

It is far more likely that India may consider using it's ally as a proxy or as a "peace keeping " mercenary force in the dream event that we capitulate.
The USA used the Kurdish Peshmerga force in a similar manner to hold restive Iraqi territories. Just as the Kurds were promised territory for their fighting men, there may be a deal to deliver territory India's ally desperately needs.,
India's ally is being trained in "peace keeping" operations or rather occupation policing.
Training ally commandos in white water rafting is being done with a purpose with long term resources in mind such as policing the Kuhnar river in Naran.

Why would Pakistanis nuke Bangladesh even if Bangladesh helped India ? It is not like there are not plenty of targets in India
 

Baibars_1260

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Why would Pakistanis nuke Bangladesh even if Bangladesh helped India ? It is not like there are not plenty of targets in India
Pakistan is unlikely to survive a nuclear confrontation with India.
All coalition partners with India will be legitimate targets.

With no land borders with Pakistan, and out of range from conventional fixed wing aircraft, Bangladesh can only be hit by an IRBM of the Shaheen 3 class with a lightweight tritium boosted warhead roughly in the 15-20'kt range.
Because when we go under all go under.
How the nuclear war will develop has been discussed in this thread.

 

Baibars_1260

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pakistan's nuclear arsenal is limited
Current known inventory of warheads is 160.

In a nuclear exchange India's eastern zone major cities ( Kolkata, Patna) will also be targeted, so the fallout is likely to affect Bangladesh anyway, particularly since the river waters flow downstream into the delta.
In an apocalyptic scenario it is possible that at least 5 warheads would be reserved for Bangladesh population centers ( Dhaka, Chittagong, Khulna , Rajshahi, Sylhet, ). Except for Sylhet most of the terrain is flat so is conducive for a surface burst.

We have a nuclear simulator linked in the thread below.
Plugging in the city, yield and surface or air burst type gives
the total number of casualties. Effects of a nuclear attack on Karachi for example have been estimated and pasted here on this thread:


Also check out :


Plug in the references to Dhaka or any other city . It is the aftermath that results in more casualties.
 
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Baibars_1260

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Bro just leave it, They cant even take their beloved Kashmir from India and they want to nuke Bangladesh.
Now i know why Afghans and Iranians are hostile to a wannabe Superpower.
Would request you to stick to the topic of the thread. We are not discussing Kashmir but your nation's military alliance with our enemy and the possibility of joining a coalition against us in a future conflict.
Must commend your honesty in showing contempt for us, which has some merit given your past victory in the Civil War allied with our enemy.

Answering your points:

We can't take Indian held Kashmir back from India, because there was no support from the population during our earlier attempts, and we cannot fight a total war for Kashmir alone. Neither can India take back Azad Kashmir from us, and risk total and possibly a two front war -( so far)
We are not a "wannabe superpower " but merely a nation that has earlier faced defeat due to treachery at your hands, and have resolved never to let it happen again. We only want to survive with honor and never suffer treachery and humiliation at yours and your ally's hand again.

From current trends and developments it is apparent that your nation is once again in a close military alliance with our enemy that is actively planning an attack on us.

There is no longer a Civil War or shared border between Bangladesh and Pakistan . My nation has good relations with all other South Asian nations. After our defeat in the Civil War we signed two tripartite agreements with India and Bangladesh in 1973 and 1974 which so far as India and my nation is concerned ended our involvement in the Civil War and any outlying issues inside Bangladesh. Yet your nation is showing extreme hostility towards us.

We have since built up our armed forces to defend our nation from your ally. Whether we fight Bangladesh or not depends entirely on the choice made by Bangladesh. If your armed forces fight us in a coalition with your ally there will be consequences.

We don't want to nuke Bangladesh, or any nation but it is not our choice.
 
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X-ray Papa

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Would request you to stick to the topic of the thread. We are not discussing Kashmir but your nation's military alliance with our enemy and the possibility of joining a coalition against us in a future conflict.
Must commend your honesty in showing contempt for us, which has some merit given your past victory in the Civil War allied with our enemy.

Answering your points:

We can't take Indian held Kashmir back from India, because there was no support from the population during our earlier attempts, and we cannot fight a total war for Kashmir alone. Neither can India take back Azad Kashmir from us, and risk total and possibly a two front war -( so far)
We are not a "wannabe superpower " but merely a nation that has earlier faced defeat due to treachery at your hands, and have resolved never to let it happen again. We only want to survive with honor and never suffer treachery and humiliation at yours and your ally's hand again.

From current trends and developments it is apparent that your nation is once again in a close military alliance with our enemy that is actively planning an attack on us.

There is no longer a Civil War or shared border between Bangladesh and Pakistan . My nation has good relations with all other South Asian nations. After our defeat in the Civil War we signed two tripartite agreements with India and Bangladesh in 1973 and 1974 which so far as India and my nation is concerned ended our involvement in the Civil War and any outlying issues inside Bangladesh. Yet your nation is showing extreme hostility towards us.

We have since built up our armed forces to defend our nation from your ally. Whether we fight Bangladesh or not depends entirely on the choice made by Bangladesh. If your armed forces fight us in a coalition with your ally there will be consequences.

We don't want to nuke Bangladesh, or any nation but it is not our choice.
I would like to hear from Imran Khan on what he will do when we so called ' invade pakistan'.
 

PAKISTANFOREVER

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I would like to hear from Imran Khan on what he will do when we so called ' invade pakistan'.


Not happening. You and your race would cease to exist as we wipe you off the face of the planet and you lot would not be able to do ANYTHING about it. Nor would the rest of the world care.
 

PAKISTANFOREVER

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Bro just leave it, They cant even take their beloved Kashmir from India and they want to nuke Bangladesh.
Now i know why Afghans and Iranians are hostile to a wannabe Superpower.



Pakistan has domain over 35% of Kashmir already. india occupies 45% of Kashmir. Excellent odds by Pakistan considering india is more than 7x bigger than Pakistan and has the full backing of the West and Russia.............:azn:.................It's more like india cannot even touch Azad Kashmir despite the odds being massively in their favour........................:azn:

Please tell me WHEN did Iran and Pakistan ever have any hostilities with one another? If you are not lying then post the links to the evidence that confirm your claims. Pakistan and Iran are two Muslim nations that share a border with eachother. There is a lot of interaction with each other and in some cases families live on both sides of the Pakistan and Iran border.

If Pakistan wanted to, we could easily nuke bangladesh and wipe it off the face of the universe. Not a problem for us. bangladesh would not be able to do ANYTHING about it nor would the rest of the world really care.
 

KaiserX

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If and IF Bangladesh participates in a war against Pakistan, by providing direct active military support (not just diplomatic as they have done in the past) then Pakistan has various options at its disposal to punish Bangladesh. These options range from attacks on strategic targets, to taking out BDs airforce.

1) Submarine launched cruise missiles- We have the Agosta 90B and S20 Class subs which can launch 750km Babur missiles. Using this against BD in a conflict against India would be unlikely.

2) Long Range Ballistic Missile- We have the Ghauri 2, Shaheen 2a/b, and Shaheen 3. This is more practical and likely. Can be used to hit airbases, army depots, or naval targets.

3) Proxy/Assymetric Warfare- There are still many pro-Pakistan elements in BD. ISI can reactivate its old links and use these proxies to strike targets.

4) Direct Airstrikes- It is almost impossible for PAF to strike BD flying through India even with the Ariel refuelers we have. A more plausible scenario would be to send a squadron of JF-17s to Chinas south east. From there the JF-17s can strike BD targets. This is unlikely but still plausible due to the recent Pakistan/China military/intelligence sharing pact. BD airforce only has 8 odd mig-29s which can easily be taken out by 4 JF-17s as analyzed in this video. The JF-17 is atleast a generation or 2 ahead of BDs best jets.


5) Myanmar factor- Many people forget that Pakistan/Myanmar have very good historic relations. Many of Myanmars top military officers were trained in Pakistan and new generation of officers continued to be trained. Myanmar has even bought JF-17s from Pak. Pakistan can use its links with Myanmar to jointly punish BD by stationing JF-17s for joint strikes, or even by stationing a Babur/Shaheen Brigade there.

So yes if BD were smart then it would not want to involve itself in a war where it would have a lot more to lose compared to PK.
 
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Bangladesh has supported India in all its military actions against Pakistan since 1971.
WROONNNGGG!!!!

after 71, no bangladesh govt has ever mixed with india- pakistan shit sandwich
The simple answer in theory is that there is a mutual defense pact which is supposed to work both ways and India can ask Bangladesh and Bhutan ( and possibly Nepal) to join in a coalition in a war with Pakistan.
we don't have any such defence pact

overall article rating : shitsandwich/10
poop-bread-400x300.jpg
 
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Baibars_1260

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I would like to hear from Imran Khan on what he will do when we so called ' invade pakistan'.
Imran Khan is not the military spokesperson so he will not be telling you what he will do. Our military doctrine and public information is released by ISPR.
(Does Bangladesh have an equivalent? )
Apart from the responses listed by other PDF members Bangladesh maritime assets are likely to be hit while transitioning through the Arabian Sea by both submarines, air launched, anti-ship missiles and littoral fighting craft with anti-ship missiles .
Unless of course you sail under the protection of your bigger ally.

An expensive gamble ...
 

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