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The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.

Baibars_1260

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The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.
Can Bangladeshi "neutrality" be taken for granted?
Is it far fetched to assume Bangladesh is not neutral, and does pose a very minuscule but still possible threat to Pakistan?

Let's look at the facts:

1.0 Overall picture:
Bangladesh has supported India in all its military actions against Pakistan since 1971.
2.0 Military interoperability and alliance:
Bangladesh and India have a formal economic and military alliance , and a complete interoperability and mutual logistics support amongst their armed forces. Bangladesh and Indian armed forces ( particularly the Bangladeshi Navy) exercise and war game with their Indian armed forces counterparts regularly with an undisguised identification of who the "enemy " is.
A large batch of Bangladeshi army officers graduate from India's defense academies ( NDA, Khadakvasla, Indian Military Academy, Dehradun, OTS Madras, ) as well as undergoing advanced training at institutions such as Wellington Staff College. Sharing common equipment BAF maintenance and flying personnel are regularly trained in India.,

2.0 The diplomatic angle:
The Indian Pakistan military confrontations ( Siachen 1985, Operation Brasstacks 1987, Kargil 1999, 2002, 2019, LOC shelling ) have nowhere involved Bangladesh or in anyway affected Bangladeshi security, yet diplomatically Bangladesh has completely sided with India both at international forums such as the UN (or what's left of SAARC ) and on a one on one level echoing the Indian foreign ministry statements and condemning Pakistan.

3.0 Bangladeshi military activity against Pakistan
So far Bangladesh has limited its activity mainly to observers such as during Operations Brass Tacks (1987). Also the BAF takes a keen interest in downed Pakistani military aircraft such as the recovered debris of the PN Breguet Atlantic shot down inside Pakistani airspace by an IAF Mig 21 in 1999.
4. Open threats to Pakistan :
Particularly in 2019 and also before, there have threats made by the foreign office of Bangladesh against Pakistan, echoing the Indian Ministry of Defense and senior Indian Military officers. The threats have been made by the Bangladesh Foreign office only , unlike their ally where chiefs of the three armed forces wings have usually issued threats The Bangladeshi COAS, BAF, ACM, and BN Admiralty have not been making any comments so far.


But why would Bangladesh get involved in an Indian conflict with Pakistan. The simple answer in theory is that there is a mutual defense pact which is supposed to work both ways and India can ask Bangladesh and Bhutan ( and possibly Nepal) to join in a coalition in a war with Pakistan.

The next question is why would India want to involve Bangladesh and Bhutan in a war against Pakistan and would Bangladesh agree.
The answer is that for propaganda purposes India would very much like to have Bangladeshi forces fighting alongside ( deja vu 1971) even though Indian armed forces commanders know that the real impact of Bangladesh's participation in a war with Pakistan would be minimal. Showing a "coalition" is a great diplomatic and psychological warfare feat. Other countries have done this such as the USA who frequently coopts allies in its wars even though their contribution is minimal.
The USA brought Mongolian troops to fight in Iraq as part of the "coalition". The presence of the Mongols ( all 100 of them) was to demoralize the Iraqis recalling the sack of Baghdad by Hulaku Khan in 1258 C.E. The Mongol contingent left after several of their troops were killed by Iraqi resistance.
It's the famous "Us vs You" psychological stance.

Reasons for Bangladesh to join a war against Pakistan:
Economic, diplomatic and political compulsions do produce far fetched scenarios such as the current turn around by most Arab states in favor of Israel. As discussed elsewhere Bangladesh has a severe land and population problem and the solution lies in having open borders with India for population migration. Given the Hindutva rhetoric in India the only way Bangladesh can win over Indian nationalist sentiment is by being more "Hindutva" than the RSS itself.
Since the prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) it makes sense from a strategic point of view to symbolically join the war against Pakistan. Hopefully as a staunch ally a merger with India ( Sikkim style) will be more palatable to a Hindu majority India than it was in 1972 and 1975. The Hindutva regime in India would be closer to their dream of a greater India and it would ensure the Modi regime and its successor Yogi Aditynaths regime a solid electoral foundation going forward for centuries.
( Note: We could discuss Bangladesh's issues in separate thread)
The war game:
We have already war gamed the India Pakistan ultimate showdown scenario and how the war would escalate into a nuclear blood bath so this article is confined to a limited war initiated and planned by the India Bangladesh Axis for a diplomatic and military humiliation of Pakistan where the war would be brief and limited holding the threshold just short of a full Pakistani collapse where Pakistan would use nuclear weapons as a last desperate act of retaliation.
It's a different topic but the war would only be waged when Bangladesh and India believe that Pakistan is sufficiently isolated from its traditional West Asian alliance and economically weakened through international sanctions.
Going forward.
Bangladesh's contribution to India's war effort.
Realistically what would be Bangladesh's contribution to India's military actions on Pakistan's eastern borders.
Air support:
A few BAF Su 30s would probably be flying operations in support of the IAF within Indian airspace . Much of the BAF support would be from transport aircraft as both India and Bangladesh fly C130Js. BAF Mil 17s would probably pitch in. It is doubtful given the training and lack of war experience that BAF would carry out air strikes inside Pakistan, unless they can miraculously come with worthy successors to Rafique and Saiful Azam.
Naval support:
Bangladesh Navy would probably be assisting Indian Navy operations in the Palk Straits trying to intercept Pakistani maritime traffic en-route to China
Army support :
Bangladesh would probably like to avoid casualties hoping for a grand re-enactment of 1971 with the heavy lifting done by India.
BA units are unlikely to be involved in direct fighting especially as there is a severe danger of heavy casualties from a tactical nuclear strike. A few BA units might be positioned as reserves in the rear to function as an occupation force once a portion of the front collapses. India would like to keep the occupied areas under "Muslim" alliance control as their armor moves deeper towards other objectives.
Hopefully the presence of Muslim troops will deter a partisan Mujahid resistance.

The ultimate war game
Pakistan does not share borders with Bangladesh and so there are fewer ways Pakistan can retaliate in a limited conflict. Bangladesh's forces have a huge advantage operating from friendly Indian territory.
. Pakistani submarines would doubtless target Bangladeshi commercial maritime traffic through the Arabian sea and BAF aircraft operating in Indian airspace would be fair game. Bangladesh Army units stationed in the rear of the IB within artillery and MRLS range would definitely be targeted.
We could war game a huge number of scenarios elsewhere but to conclude with the question:

In an ultimate Apocalypse Pakistan would be targeting Kolkata. Would Pakistan strike Dhaka and the rest of Bangladesh as well, knowing that the vast majority of the civilian deaths would be of our so called "brethren in faith" ?
 
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vi-va

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Bangladesh is no fool. India is too big for Bangladesh to be friend, and too dangerous to be enemy.

Bangladesh just knew how to survive under India shadow, and need external friend like China to counter balance India influence.
 
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El Sidd

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Who will discuss the intelligence piece?
Mukti Bahani succeeded only through a robust intelligence system made possible.

Bangladesh as a country will choose India. Bangladeshis as people would always choose themselves.

The argument of brethren in faith has no relevance in Pak Bangla affairs.
 

mudas777

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What Bangladesh can do other then boycott SARCC or at best vote against us in the UN or OIC. As they say keep kids away from the waring factions and Bangladesh factor is no different to that.
 

KaiserX

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Bangladesh can do very little against Pakistan but can do a lot by supporting Pakistan against India

Simply put Bd is a bigger threat to India due to their georgraphy and proximity to Indias chicken neck.
 

El Sidd

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Bangladesh can do very little against Pakistan but can do a lot by supporting Pakistan against India

Simply put Bd is a bigger threat to India due to their georgraphy and proximity to Indias chicken neck.
Bangladesh poses an existential threat to India.

The Bengali nationalism cannot be confined for long by artificial borders created by foreigners.
 

Gangetic

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Do you think Bangladesh could build up the capability to cut the chicken's neck? Geography heavily favours them and the majority of India's army is near the LOC/LAC.
 

Avicenna

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The Bangladesh factor in a future Pakistan India conflict.
Can Bangladeshi "neutrality" be taken for granted?
Is it far fetched to assume Bangladesh is not neutral, and does pose a very minuscule but still possible threat to Pakistan?

Let's look at the facts:

1.0 Overall picture:
Bangladesh has supported India in all military action against Pakistan since 1971.
2.0 Military interoperability and alliance:
Bangladesh and India have a formal economic and military alliance , and a complete interoperability and mutual logistics support amongst their armed forces. Bangladesh and Indian armed forces ( particularly the Bangladeshi Navy) exercise and war game with their Indian armed forces counterparts regularly with an undisguised identification of who the "enemy " is.
A large batch of Bangladeshi army officers graduate from India's defense academies ( NDA, Khadakvasla, Indian Military Academy, Dehradun, OTS Madras, ) as well as undergoing advanced training at institutions such as Wellington Staff College. Sharing common equipment BAF maintenance and flying personnel are regularly trained in India.,

2.0 The diplomatic angle:
The Indian Pakistan military confrontations ( Siachen 1985, Operation Brasstacks 1987, Kargil 1999, 2002, 2019, LOC shelling ) have nowhere involved Bangladesh or in anyway affected Bangladeshi security, yet diplomatically Bangladesh has completely sided with India both at international forums such as the UN (or what's left of SAARC ) and on a one on one level echoing the Indian foreign ministry statements and condemning Pakistan.

3.0 Bangladeshi military activity against Pakistan
So far Bangladesh has limited its activity mainly to observers such as during Operations Brass Tacks (1987). Also the BAF takes a keen interest in downed Pakistani military aircraft such as the recovered debris of the PN Breguet Atlantic shot down inside Pakistani airspace by an IAF Mig 21 in 1999.
4. Open threats to Pakistan :
Particularly in 2019 and also before, there have threats made by the foreign office of Bangladesh against Pakistan, echoing the Indian Ministry of Defense and senior Indian Military officers. The threats have been made by the Bangladesh Foreign office only , unlike their ally where chiefs of the three armed forces wings have usually issued threats The Bangladeshi COAS, BAF, ACM, and BN Admiralty have not been making any comments so far.


But why would Bangladesh get involved in an Indian conflict with Pakistan. The simple answer in theory is that there is a mutual defense pact which is supposed to work both ways and India can ask Bangladesh and Bhutan ( and possibly Nepal) to join in a coalition in a war with Pakistan.

The next question is why would India want to involve Bangladesh and Bhutan in a war against Pakistan and would Bangladesh agree.
The answer is that for propaganda purposes India would very much like to have Bangladeshi forces fighting alongside ( deja vu 1971) even though Indian armed forces commanders know that the real impact of Bangladesh's participation in a war with Pakistan would be minimal. Showing a "coalition" is a great diplomatic and psychological warfare feat. Other countries have done this such as the USA who frequently coopts allies in its wars even though their contribution is minimal.
The USA brought Mongolian troops to fight in Iraq as part of the "coalition". The presence of the Mongols ( all 100 of them) was to demoralize the Iraqis recalling the sack of Baghdad by Hulaku Khan in 1258 C.E. The Mongol contingent left after several of their troops were killed by Iraqi resistance.
It's the famous "Us vs You" psychological stance.

Reasons for Bangladesh to join a war against Pakistan:
Economic, diplomatic and political compulsions do produce far fetched scenarios such as the current turn around by most Arab states in favor of Israel. As discussed elsewhere Bangladesh has a severe land and population problem and the solution lies in having open borders with India for population migration. Given the Hindutva rhetoric in India the only way Bangladesh can win over Indian nationalist sentiment is by being more "Hindutva" than the RSS itself.
Since the prime target of Hindutva are Pakistan and Indian Muslims (both of which Bangladesh hates) it makes sense from a strategic point of view to symbolically join the war against Pakistan. Hopefully as a staunch ally a merger with India ( Sikkim style) will be more palatable to a Hindu majority India than it was in 1972 and 1975. The Hindutva regime in India would be closer to their dream of a greater India and it would ensure the Modi regime and its successor Yogi Aditynaths regime a solid electoral foundation going forward for centuries.
( Note: We could discuss Bangladesh's issues in separate thread)
The war game:
We have already war gamed the India Pakistan ultimate showdown scenario and how the war would escalate into a nuclear blood bath so this article is confined to a limited war initiated and planned by the India Bangladesh Axis for a diplomatic and military humiliation of Pakistan where the war would be brief and limited holding the threshold just short of a full Pakistani collapse where Pakistan would use nuclear weapons as a last desperate act of retaliation.
It's a different topic but the war would only be waged when Bangladesh and India believe that Pakistan is sufficiently isolated from its traditional West Asian alliance and economically weakened through international sanctions.
Going forward.
Bangladesh's contribution to India's war effort.
Realistically what would be Bangladesh's contribution to India's military actions on Pakistan's eastern borders.
Air support:
A few BAF Su 30s would probably be flying operations in support of the IAF within Indian airspace . Much of the BAF support would be from transport aircraft as both India and Bangladesh fly C130Js. BAF Mil 17s would probably pitch in. It is doubtful given the training and lack of war experience that BAF would carry out air strikes inside Pakistan, unless they can miraculously come with worthy successors to Rafique and Saiful Azam.
Naval support:
Bangladesh Navy would probably be assisting Indian Navy operations in the Palk Straits trying to intercept Pakistani maritime traffic en-route to China
Army support :
Bangladesh would probably like to avoid casualties hoping for a grand re-enactment of 1971 with the heavy lifting done by India.
BA units are unlikely to be involved in direct fighting especially as there is a severe danger of heavy casualties from a tactical nuclear strike. A few BA units might be positioned as reserves in the rear to function as an occupation force once a portion of the front collapses. India would like to keep the occupied areas under "Muslim" alliance control as their armor moves deeper towards other objectives.
Hopefully the presence of Muslim troops will deter a partisan Mujahid resistance.

The ultimate war game
Pakistan does not share borders with Bangladesh and so there are fewer ways Pakistan can retaliate in a limited conflict. Bangladesh's forces have a huge advantage operating from friendly Indian territory.
. Pakistani submarines would doubtless target Bangladeshi commercial maritime traffic through the Arabian sea and BAF aircraft operating in Indian airspace would be fair game. Bangladesh Army units stationed in the rear of the IB within artillery and MRLS range would definitely be targeted.
We could war game a huge number of scenarios elsewhere but to conclude with the question:

In an ultimate Apocalypse Pakistan would be targeting Kolkata. Would Pakistan strike Dhaka and the rest of Bangladesh as well, knowing that the vast majority of the civilian deaths would be of our so called "brethren in faith" ?
This is:

1608392465191.png
.
 

Baibars_1260

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Bangladesh is no fool. India is too big for Bangladesh to be friend, and too dangerous to be enemy.
influence.
Bangladesh just knew to how survive under India shadow, and need external friend like China to counter balance India
A noble and patriotic sentiment but not based on reality.
It is just like Mexico and Canada saying they need to team up with China to counter the USA's influence. Which is why Canada and Mexico alway fight alongside the USA even if they disagree on the foreign policy.
Nations can't choose their geography or their neighbors.
Who will discuss the intelligence piece?
Mukti Bahani succeeded only through a robust intelligence system made possible.
We are not discussing the Mukti Bahini here but possibility of the regular Bangladesh Armed Forces supporting India in its war against Pakistan in a "junior" role akin to the UAE supporting Saudi Arabia in Yemen.
Bangladesh as a country will choose India. Bangladeshis as people would always choose themselves.
My thoughts exactly!
Thanks for agreeing with my article.
The argument of brethren in faith has no relevance in Pak Bangla affairs.
Once again my thoughts exactly !
I strongly suspect the Pakistan NCA has very little concern on this matter and fully agrees with you . But let's open the discussion to other points of view..
 
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KaiserX

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Do you think Bangladesh could build up the capability to cut the chicken's neck? Geography heavily favours them and the majority of India's army is near the LOC/LAC.
With the Bangladeshis militarys current state...def not. India would be easily be able to stop them with just a divison.
 

Baibars_1260

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With the Bangladeshis militarys current state...def not. India would be easily be able to stop them with just a divison.
Are we discussing an India Bangladesh show down? Foreign policy and geopolitics suggests otherwise.
My two cents:
The whole of Bangladesh is under Indian MRLS range. It wouldn't need. much effort for India to stomp the Bangladesh Armed Forces into pulp.,
 
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Basel

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A noble and patriotic sentiment but not based on reality.
It is just like Mexico and Canada saying they need to team up with China to counter the USA's influence. Which is why Canada and Mexico alway fights alongside the USA even if they disagree on the foreign policy.
Nations can't choose their geography or their neighbors.

We are not discussing the Mukti Bahini here but possibility of the regular Bangladesh Armed Forces supporting India in its war against Pakistan in a "junior" role akin to the UAE supporting Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

My thoughts exactly!
Thanks for agreeing with my article.

Once again my thoughts exactly !
I strongly suspect the Pakistan NCA has very little concern on this matter and fully agrees with you . But let's open the discussion to other points of view..
If BD ever do that kind of stupidity then they will not be able to save themselves from Pakistani response, we have capability to hit any place inside BD if ever needed (god forbid).
 

El Sidd

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A noble and patriotic sentiment but not based on reality.
It is just like Mexico and Canada saying they need to team up with China to counter the USA's influence. Which is why Canada and Mexico alway fights alongside the USA even if they disagree on the foreign policy.
Nations can't choose their geography or their neighbors.

We are not discussing the Mukti Bahini here but possibility of the regular Bangladesh Armed Forces supporting India in its war against Pakistan in a "junior" role akin to the UAE supporting Saudi Arabia in Yemen.

My thoughts exactly!
Thanks for agreeing with my article.

Once again my thoughts exactly !
I strongly suspect the Pakistan NCA has very little concern on this matter and fully agrees with you . But let's open the discussion to other points of view..

I got evidence. The racial disharmony is bound to flare with religiosity.

It shall end, how it began. In Terror
 

Baibars_1260

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I got evidence. The racial disharmony is bound to flare with religiosity.

It shall end, how it began. In Terror
Good post but could we confine ourselves to the topic.
To summarize my article:
1. Bangladesh and India have an identical foreign and defense policy so far as Pakistan is concerned .
2. Due to climate change, and population pressures Bangladesh has a direct interest in moving even closer to India in a Canada USA like relationship, This can only happen if Bangladesh demonstrates to India that it is fully on board with its nationalist Hindutva agenda targeting Pakistan and Indian Muslims.
3. The Bangladesh Armed Forces have complete interoperability with the Indian Armed Forces and in theory can fight alongside and support India in its war effort against Pakistan.
4. Due to limited capabilities and training Bangladesh's participation in a war against Pakistan will be symbolic but a huge diplomatic and psychological victory over Pakistan, which is what both India and Bangladesh want.
5. In a Pakistan-India-Bangladesh war Pakistan will treat Bangladeshi forces exactly like the enemy and inflict losses accordingly.
6. Question: As the war escalates will Pakistan treat Bangladeshi territory as enemy territory and strike it with weapons of mass destruction?
My answer is unfortunately YES! As it goes under Pakistan would annihilate Bangladesh as well ; even though that would result in the elimination of the only two "Muslim" nations in the subcontinent.
I personally abhor violence and no people should pay the price of their leadership's folly.
 
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