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Taliban Rapidly Raising New Highly Trained Units

adelphi

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Iran and Russia aren't on Indian side in Afghanistan. Get your facts correct.
I said "will actively compete" (this shouldn't suggest being on same side). Although historically Iran & India have actively supported northern alliance & they will continue to do so.

There wont be any civil war if taliban keeps up the pace and takes over the country in months. Also taliban are way more reliable and acceptable then the current afghan govt, a clear indian puppet and whose officials openly abuse Pakistan.
They are taking most areas without a fight and actually including every group in governing the districts. This time over they will be recognized by big powers like china and russia.
Getting regional centres is easy, they had influence in those areas even during US/Nato times. Come major cities there will be resistance even by locals. There will also be resistance by non-Pashtoons & northern groups. Historically Afghanistan has never been taken over without bloodshed so it won't be different this time.
As for recognition is concerned, let's re-visit our respective assesments in near future.
 
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TNT

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I said "will actively compete" (this shouldn't suggest being on same side). Although historically Iran & India have actively supported northern alliance & they will continue to do so.


Getting regional centres is easy, they had influence in those areas even during US/Nato times. Come major cities there will be resistance even by locals. There will also be resistance by non-Pashtoons & northern groups. Historically Afghanistan has never been taken over without bloodshed so it won't be different this time.
As per recognition is concerned, let's re-visit our respective assesments in near future.
There is no such major city without taliban influence except kabul. And if the US and NATO trained, funded and equipped ANA is giving up without a fight, what makes u think the locals would fight? That too after enduring two decades of US bombing. History doesn't need to repeat itself every time and maybe most groups would surrender or negotiate. Even in case of fighting, id prefer it to be quick and power is taken by most powerful group, so some form of peace and stability is achieved.
 

FuturePAF

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Ironically, all this war really did was give the Taliban time to build up influence and their networks all around Afghanistan and diplomatically around the world. Something they could never had done had this war not occurred. Taliban may, I say again, may have made more progress in real sustainable ethnic reconciliation (Within the context of Afghan ethnic and tribal relations) and cohesiveness then the current Afghan government in Kabul.

Other than that, this war moved the NA faction into a position that is allied with extra-regional foreign forces that are challenging Iran and Russia. Their traditional allies.

and now the ANA higher ups are resorting to bringing back militias. In the Iraq context it’s ethnic Sunnis backed by their tribal chiefs fighting AQ, but in Afghanistan it paid militias doing it for the money. Afghans have seen those kinds of groups before and know the bad that can come along for the short term gain.

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That Guy

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Everyone in Pakistan who is cheering for TTA should be atleast somewhat apprehensive. Modern weapons, artillery, ATGM and potentially MANPADS in the hands of rogues can never be good for us. Imagine some BLA/ TTP broker getting their hands on MANPADS for instance. This is definitely going to further complicate the already complex security paradigm of the region.
Some of these weapons are 100% gonna end up in the hands of the TTP and BLA. People cheering for the AT are blind to the geopolitical connections that these various groups have with each other. The fact that the TTP has been allowed to operate in AT territory without issue is indicative of just how close the two are.
 

adelphi

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There is no such major city without taliban influence except kabul. And if the US and NATO trained, funded and equipped ANA is giving up without a fight, what makes u think the locals would fight? That too after enduring two decades of US bombing. History doesn't need to repeat itself every time and maybe most groups would surrender or negotiate. Even in case of fighting, id prefer it to be quick and power is taken by most powerful group, so some form of peace and stability is achieved.
There will be power vaccum after US withdrawal & right now Taliban are the most powerful group to fill that void however it doesn't mean that there won't be any new groups that are propped up against them. The dynamics of Afghanistan hasn't changed for last 30 years. It's still a deeply divided ethnic country. Everyone is hungry for power. Also war lords are still around & they won't let their influence to wane that easily. I won't be surprised if ANA splits up into ethinic fighting groups.
Talibans are capable of taking over large cities but it won't be a walkover. People unite when their existance is thteatened & there are so many groups whose existance is being threatened by Talibans at the moment. In my opinion more bloodshed is expected especially when no one is interested in talks.
 

That Guy

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ironically Ana is a russian name

Exactly but the pashtuns are not local in north nor in that mini island in center..
Feel free to correct me, but the center of Afghanistan mainly dominated by the Hazara, right? They're pretty much an Island surrounded by larger ethnic populations.
 

Clutch

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The Taliban Blitzkrieg in the last few weeks has startled every defence expert in the world. Many key districts surrounding the main cities of Afghanistan have fallen to the Taliban. They have also got their hands on at least 149 humvees, Dozens of Howitzers and many other US hardware. Recently some images have surfaced of some Crack Taliban Commando units.
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A Taliban fighter exiting of US MaxxPro MRAP with Colt M4 Carbine in his hand.
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Below is a two-week old map, things have moved on pretty fast.
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It seems like America came and left behind a well equipped better trained more powerful Taliban.... Hmm . 🤔
 

-blitzkrieg-

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Feel free to correct me, but the center of Afghanistan mainly dominated by the Hazara, right? They're pretty much an Island surrounded by larger ethnic populations.
Predominantly farsiwan with majority hazara.
In Afganistan Farsiwan are usually not able to speak pashto unlike pashtuns who are likely bilingual
There are Hazara on the strip bordering Iran as well.
 
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FuturePAF

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Feel free to correct me, but the center of Afghanistan mainly dominated by the Hazara, right? They're pretty much an Island surrounded by larger ethnic populations.
It’s a good sign for the Hazaras they are able to fit this fight out for as long as possible. Maybe they have let it known to both sides, through tribal elders, they will join whomever wins in the end, so it doesn’t help to fight on their terrain. A little naive. More likely some understanding through with Iranians not to touch the Hazaras, for both sides. There’s a lot of weapons the Iranians could give the Hazaras, as seen by their support to the Houthis.

Also thinking back on the kind of weapon used against that helicopter in Bamiyan. It’s possible it wasn’t a Manpad or an ATGM (because you don’t really see personnel setting up to take the shot). It could have been anti-tank mine (range up to 500 meters). Deadly if placed near known or suspected Landing zones or flight paths.


these helicopters don’t seem to fly very high during a strafing run or resupply mission. Could get very deadly for them. Especially if they are part of a minefield laid down to prevent overrun bases being taken back. I think the Vietcong used this tactic during the Vietnam war.

 
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Nov 18, 2014
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Of profound importance is the fact that current regime of transplants sourced it's sustenance from every source willing to feed it... a dead horse!
Why is it, that Afghans had simultaneously two extremely antithetical, disparate and contradictory set of cultures... one that leeches it's invaders, joins in and suckles till the ultimate opponent and opposition overtakes and overruns.
Leeching Afghan Kings of yore never wasted a moment to demand more from their benefactors... come the Brits, Soviets, Indians and finally U.S., ending up hiring the same set of clowns.
These "lizards" will now seek both former and future would be patrons... dancing to the new tunes.
 

wali87

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The Afghan government it seems, is in a state of denial about the Taliban practically taking control over almost the entire country. Interestingly, almost all of the districts that are falling to the Taliban are through negotiations and without a fight. The pace at which the Afghan national army is surrending to the Taliban, it will hardly take 6 months after the US withdrawal for Taliban to declare victory over almost the entire country. Taliban seem to have support of the public whereas the So called government is desperately clinching onto power. It appears all the President cares about is getting his pictures taken with the US president. That however, will not help. If the US couldn’t win in 20 years with all its NATO allies and advanced weapons, the ANA practically has no chance. The writing on the wall is clear, the Taliban are the next rulers of Afghanistan.
 

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