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State Bank reserves at 7.8BN$, lowest in years

SD 10

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I'm aware of the history from previous PLMN rule - as explained by PDF community many times over. But given the current status of reserves, Pakistan does not have the luxury to manipulate with currency. Random tweets and ad-hoc accusations cannot become reality.


.. another deliberate attempt to mischaracterize what I've said earlier on the subject. 🤦‍♂️
okay there will be a hard proof too in coming days!
 

Pogical Thinking

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wtf!!!!!!! pmln is really a cancer! if you are not going to address issues of the economy but just keep on pouring money ............... nonsense
This liquidity injection was done in PKR and not in USD and if anything this liquidity injection would have made the price of dollar go up, not down. Furthermore, SBP routinely does this in order to indirectly loan money to the government. This is because, in accordance with the program established by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government is not permitted to borrow money directly from the SBP. As a result, the central bank will pump this liquidity into commercial banks, and the commercial banks will then utilize this money to buy government assets.
 

SD 10

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This liquidity injection was done in PKR and not in USD and if anything this liquidity injection would have made the price of dollar go up, not down. Furthermore, SBP routinely does this in order to indirectly loan money to the government. This is because, in accordance with the program established by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government is not permitted to borrow money directly from the SBP. As a result, the central bank will pump this liquidity into commercial banks, and the commercial banks will then utilize this money to buy government assets.
so the same old circle continues!
 

AZ1

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This liquidity injection was done in PKR and not in USD and if anything this liquidity injection would have made the price of dollar go up, not down. Furthermore, SBP routinely does this in order to indirectly loan money to the government. This is because, in accordance with the program established by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government is not permitted to borrow money directly from the SBP. As a result, the central bank will pump this liquidity into commercial banks, and the commercial banks will then utilize this money to buy government assets.
we are short of $700 million in exports in july, $150 million in remittances.

So how come dollar coming down rather than increasing? since we are around short of $1 billion month to month?
 

Pogical Thinking

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we are short of $700 million in exports in july, $150 million in remittances.

So how come dollar coming down rather than increasing? since we are around short of $1 billion month to month?
Everyone agrees that dollar is overvalued in comparison to the rupee. The real rate even by most pessimistic estimates is around 200. The crash to 240 was a result of political instability, dollar hoarding, and settling LC for oil payments. Although exports decreased, CAD also decreased so the market gained some confidence there. Secondly, the Good news about the IMF agreement also increased investor confidence. The Finance Ministry also said that they plan to import less crude in August due to already abundant reserves so which also boosted confidence. Also, exporters who had parked their dollars abroad hoping for the rupee to go down more finally began converting their dollars to rupees which provided a great boost to the rupee. China also sold a large chunk of its dollars which caused the dollar to go down globally. All this eventually pushed the momentum in favor of the rupee and since the dollar was overvalued in comparison to the rupee it will continue to go down. All these factors simply gave the rupee the push it needed to go back down.
 

AZ1

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Everyone agrees that dollar is overvalued in comparison to the rupee. The real rate even by most pessimistic estimates is around 200. The crash to 240 was a result of political instability, dollar hoarding, and settling LC for oil payments. Although exports decreased, CAD also decreased so the market gained some confidence there. Secondly, the Good news about the IMF agreement also increased investor confidence. The Finance Ministry also said that they plan to import less crude in August due to already abundant reserves so which also boosted confidence. Also, exporters who had parked their dollars abroad hoping for the rupee to go down more finally began converting their dollars to rupees which provided a great boost to the rupee. China also sold a large chunk of its dollars which caused the dollar to go down globally. All this eventually pushed the momentum in favor of the rupee and since the dollar was overvalued in comparison to the rupee it will continue to go down. All these factors simply gave the rupee the push it needed to go back down.
So removing the factor of china and exporters in few months dollar will increase when the factor effects over? lets say in a span of 6 month or a year
 

Pogical Thinking

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So removing the factor of china and exporters in few months dollar will increase when the factor effects over? lets say in a span of 6 month or a year
No Idea, too many different factors to consider. If CAD continues to go down, political stability is maintained and IMF package is continued then dollar should continue to go down or at least stabilize, and if any of these things don't happen then dollar will probably go soaring again. But this is Pakistan, no one knows or can even predict what is going to happen next week, let alone in six months.
 

Zibago

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who cares ? its not our country anyways
Hamain Somaliland hi bhej do wahan bhi halat yahan sey behtar hein

I am confused!, they said UAE poured 1 billion dollars into psx, they called in investment but if it was really done it would be just another loan but than that would take dollar prices down on its own, but now the reserves have gone low too? so is muftah pouring money from the treasury too? wth is going on?
Arabs want stake in state resources that are still profitable nothing more
 

Wood

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I contest the unsubstantiated notion that SBP used available reserves to prop up the currency in recent past. The article that you've posted confirms that IMF is satisfied with Pakistan's monetary and fiscal actions. That supports what I hope to convey. :coffee:

It is worth mentioning here that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had confirmed that Pakistan has achieved all the set targets for the revival of Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme
 

AZ1

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I contest the unsubstantiated notion that SBP used available reserves to prop up the currency in recent past. The article that you've posted confirms that IMF is satisfied with Pakistan's monetary and fiscal actions. That supports what I hope to convey. :coffee:
So why dont india reduce its exports and just rely on IMF? if its that's good.

If we were increasing exports and taking imf loan wouldnt bother us but its just tkaing loan making bridges go home thing let public in upcoming years face it.
 

Wood

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So why dont india reduce its exports and just rely on IMF? if its that's good.

If we were increasing exports and taking imf loan wouldnt bother us but its just tkaing loan making bridges go home thing let public in upcoming years face it.
India does not have a looming BoP problem like Pakistan. India also accumulates twin deficits (like Pakistan) year after year, but does not need to worry about BoP. Why? Because India has a surplus CA that is padded by FDI every year. Pakistan does not have this luxury. Every time Pakistan increases its exports, its CAD increases along side -- thus making your twin deficit unbearable. Unless Pakistan manages to accumulate a CA surplus like India -- or Riqo Diq comes through in a big way -- Pakistan's high growth will always lead to BoP. Only long term fix is for Pakistanis to increase their quality of labor productivity and logistical efficiency. This will take a long time structural effort -- and Imran did not fix any of it in 3 years. :coffee:
 

ziaulislam

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