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Shahbar zaidi ...ban imports...

ahmadnawaz22

SENIOR MEMBER
Oct 26, 2009
3,202
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3,201
Country
Pakistan
Location
United Arab Emirates
The problem is, in 2021
Pakistan total Exports were 25 Billion dollars.
While Import of only Fuel Oil and Heavy Machinery was 25 Billion dollars.
Not even mentioning other inevitable imports like Medicines , Electronics , Services , military Hardware , Raw materials for industry, Automobiles , Parts etc.
Total imports were more then 50 billion dollars.
It cannot be controlled by Imports. Only was is increasing exports.
Its nearly unfixable considering you have to compete with China India Bangladesh Vietnam.
We are not even in the picture with Bangladesh and India Industry wise. Forget China and East Asia.
Forget the stupid "Stretegic position" and "Defined Destiny" Nation needs to work its a** out , control population , Make favorable business environment , stop military adventures and make close ties with big economies.
So much needs to be done. So So many reforms. All problems cannot even be discussed in a single post.
 

ziaulislam

ELITE MEMBER
Apr 22, 2010
18,138
9
18,806
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
The problem is, in 2021
Pakistan total Exports were 25 Billion dollars.
While Import of only Fuel Oil and Heavy Machinery was 25 Billion dollars.
Not even mentioning other inevitable imports like Medicines , Electronics , Services , military Hardware , Raw materials for industry, Automobiles , Parts etc.
Total imports were more then 50 billion dollars.
It cannot be controlled by Imports. Only was is increasing exports.
Its nearly unfixable considering you have to compete with China India Bangladesh Vietnam.
We are not even in the picture with Bangladesh and India Industry wise. Forget China and East Asia.
Forget the stupid "Stretegic position" and "Defined Destiny" Nation needs to work its a** out , control population , Make favorable business environment , stop military adventures and make close ties with big economies.
So much needs to be done. So So many reforms. All problems cannot even be discussed in a single post.
Exports are increasing at 10+% rate so we are good there

The problem is 2011-2018 i.e lost decade
Exports instead of growing at 10% and reaching 60b$ it dropped to 21bfrom 25b$

And dont blame it on power

Bengaldesh total power production is just 10,000 mw..problem was expensive power to the industries not lack of power

Also rupee subsidzation and import liberalization

Power to industry during the day is just needed u can do load shedding during the day but its about pirorities

Our install capacity in 2009 was 20,000+ but issue was these were expensive furnace oil plants

PMLN solution was imported coal at gaddani beach..an excellent idea since in future thar coal in some mix could have replaced it but they didnt want to spend a penny they just invited foreign bids..what happened ...nothing since coal finacing is difficult and their was no transmission

Instead we did imported coal way inland and imported gas

Now gas is too expensive duh..did we forget 2008!?
 

ziaulislam

ELITE MEMBER
Apr 22, 2010
18,138
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####

So we already know what IMF chinese and arabs are saying

The real question is how RDA holders & remittences are going to react

My guess is RDA will drop but remittences will remain strong
 

Ssan

FULL MEMBER
Mar 5, 2022
260
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319
Country
United States
Location
United States
####

So we already know what IMF chinese and arabs are saying

The real question is how RDA holders & remittences are going to react

My guess is RDA will drop but remittences will remain strong
I expect remittances to drop but over 3-6 month period. Or at least not to increase- under PTI govt, it exploded.
 

Ssan

FULL MEMBER
Mar 5, 2022
260
0
319
Country
United States
Location
United States
The problem is, in 2021
Pakistan total Exports were 25 Billion dollars.
While Import of only Fuel Oil and Heavy Machinery was 25 Billion dollars.
Not even mentioning other inevitable imports like Medicines , Electronics , Services , military Hardware , Raw materials for industry, Automobiles , Parts etc.
Total imports were more then 50 billion dollars.
It cannot be controlled by Imports. Only was is increasing exports.
Its nearly unfixable considering you have to compete with China India Bangladesh Vietnam.
We are not even in the picture with Bangladesh and India Industry wise. Forget China and East Asia.
Forget the stupid "Stretegic position" and "Defined Destiny" Nation needs to work its a** out , control population , Make favorable business environment , stop military adventures and make close ties with big economies.
So much needs to be done. So So many reforms. All problems cannot even be discussed in a single post.
In principle, I agree with you but once you account for remittances it’s not that bad. Our current primary account deficit is not that bad- maybe a couple of 100 million $. The real challenge is how to service our debt most of which is mainly short term and expensive.

If we had even a slightly positive CAD (which takes a lot of govt discipline to do), you can decrease your total debt liability pretty quickly. This is what we need to aim to do - have a slightly positive primary CAD (like 3-5 bn$) and service the rest like we have been.
 

ziaulislam

ELITE MEMBER
Apr 22, 2010
18,138
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18,806
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Pakistan
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In principle, I agree with you but once you account for remittances it’s not that bad. Our current primary account deficit is not that bad- maybe a couple of 100 million $. The real challenge is how to service our debt most of which is mainly short term and expensive.

If we had even a slightly positive CAD (which takes a lot of govt discipline to do), you can decrease your total debt liability pretty quickly. This is what we need to aim to do - have a slightly positive primary CAD (like 3-5 bn$) and service the rest like we have been.
CAD is +tive if oil drops to 50$
And it will drop to 50$ if russian embargo is lifted it will drop to 30$ if iran embargo are lifted

The problem is, in 2021
Pakistan total Exports were 25 Billion dollars.
While Import of only Fuel Oil and Heavy Machinery was 25 Billion dollars.
Not even mentioning other inevitable imports like Medicines , Electronics , Services , military Hardware , Raw materials for industry, Automobiles , Parts etc.
Total imports were more then 50 billion dollars.
It cannot be controlled by Imports. Only was is increasing exports.
Its nearly unfixable considering you have to compete with China India Bangladesh Vietnam.
We are not even in the picture with Bangladesh and India Industry wise. Forget China and East Asia.
Forget the stupid "Stretegic position" and "Defined Destiny" Nation needs to work its a** out , control population , Make favorable business environment , stop military adventures and make close ties with big economies.
So much needs to be done. So So many reforms. All problems cannot even be discussed in a single post.
 

-blitzkrieg-

SENIOR MEMBER
Mar 1, 2015
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I've seen central african cities that went through civil war in past become much more developed and cleaner than our mainstream Pakistani cities(islamabad is an exception)..this was my moment of truth. Since then I realized the problem of Pakistan is the psyche of people and their culture itself and politicians is just a byproduct of it. When we decide to divide ourselves based on groups rather than homogenouising our identity like what happened to post french revolution France which was earlier much like present day Pakistan with people of different culture and language... We dont understand each other so we are in a constant state of conflict. Here we have idiots who want maximum autonomy for their provinces..people in respectable under developed countries drive old cars in clean surroundings..we drive expensive cars among cingchis and heaps of garbage... we believe importing cellphones and cars is more important than investing in local manufacturers..this psyche of show off will never end..
 
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ziaulislam

ELITE MEMBER
Apr 22, 2010
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I've seen central african cities that went through civil war in past become much more developed and cleaner than our mainstream Pakistani cities(islamabad is an exception)..this was my moment of truth. Since then I realized the problem of Pakistan is the psyche of people and their culture itself and politicians is just a byproduct of it. When we decide to divide ourselves based on groups rather than homogenouising our identity like what happened to post french revolution France which was earlier much like present day Pakistan with people of different culture and language... We dont understand each other so we are in a constant state of conflict. Here we have idiots who want maximum autonomy for their provinces..people in respectable under developed countries drive old cars in clean surroundings..we drive expensive cars among cingchis and heaps of garbage... we believe importing cellphones and cars is more important than investing in local manufacturers..this psyche of show off will never end..
Nothing is wrong with federal autonomy
Did we do better from 1970 to 1998 when there was no 18the amendement? We did worse

The problem is our country two largest parties want to run the country like UAE lebanon srilanka i.e import based services based economy

Lebanon crashed due to war, srilanaka due to covid, uae innovated, well pakistan never reaches there to begin with

This has to do with PMLN (PPPP is far more diciplined) ..

Dont know why pakistanis turn around and blame everything except for root cause of our problem which is ishaq dar

Had ishaq dar been not borned we would have done much better..its nawa zsharif zardari but ishaq dar who is responsible for this (and may be aristotole ishan iqbal)

1 example is lahore islamabd motorway buold in 1990s that cost 1 b$ ..a rdiculosus stupid project in 1990s

PPPP would come and halt the project and spend else where and PMLN will restart it

Both are corrupt..sure but problem of massive building without having the money and import base economy is majorily a problem created by PMLN ishaq dar

#####
Bottom line instead of fixing ishaq dar
We just point fingers randomly

All we need is someone make ishaq dar an ashiq like amir liaquat, so he can leave pakistan
 

ziaulislam

ELITE MEMBER
Apr 22, 2010
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1- energy independence--hydro/solar
--little work done on solar side

2- food independence
Very little work done
Currently oil, tea, sugar beet, pulses, milk products bill is 4 billion dollars these are easily susbitutable on few years

3- small energering products mobile phones
Bill of 1b$
Mobile phones attracted attention, quiet abit work done

4- cotton
A raw product since our production halved
Some work done

5- refined oil
we have no oil refineries
little work done on this
4+b $ imports of refined oil and oil products

We are more interested in giving petrol subsidy and builing 3 b$ orange line(instead of builing a cheap bus metro) rather then fixing these issues
 

Wood

SENIOR MEMBER
Mar 30, 2013
3,700
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India
Location
Canada
1- energy independence--hydro/solar
--little work done on solar side

2- food independence
Very little work done
Currently oil, tea, sugar beet, pulses, milk products bill is 4 billion dollars these are easily susbitutable on few years

3- small energering products mobile phones
Bill of 1b$
Mobile phones attracted attention, quiet abit work done

4- cotton
A raw product since our production halved
Some work done

5- refined oil
we have no oil refineries
little work done on this
4+b $ imports of refined oil and oil products

We are more interested in giving petrol subsidy and builing 3 b$ orange line(instead of builing a cheap bus metro) rather then fixing these issues
There is a post in economic section claiming petrol prices will rise by 45 rupees now. Shahbaz is delivering the right action and fixing PTI's policy mistakes :cheers:
 

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