• Thursday, November 21, 2019

Saudi Arabia Has Started An Arms Race

Discussion in 'Iranian Defence Forum' started by AmirPatriot, May 22, 2017.

  1. AmirPatriot

    AmirPatriot SENIOR MEMBER

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    If the dear readers would first like to see the status of Saudi Arabia's military, when all orders are fulfilled, Saudi will have a total of:

    Army

    710 M1A2
    450 M60A3
    400 M2 Bradley
    Over 100 AH-64 Apache
    Some 200 MH-60 Black Hawk
    Nearly 100 CH-47 Chinook

    Navy

    3 La Fayette Class frigates (~4700 tons)
    4 Al Riyadh class (~2600 tons)
    4 Badr Class (~1000 tons)
    4 Littoral Combat Ship
    48 German patrol boats
    Maybe 5+ German submarines
    Unknown no. of P-8 maritime patrol aircraft

    Air force

    232 F-15SA
    70 F-15C/D
    72 Eurofighter Typhoon
    80 upgraded Tornado
    13 E-3 AWACS
    6 A330 Refuellers

    Air Defence

    Lots of Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3
    THAAD

    (This list also includes equipment not on order and fully delivered, just to provide an overview of KSA's most important military assets)

    Clearly a substantial arsenal.

    And looking at Saudi's regional adversaries, we have Syria, Iraq (to an extent, they haven't gone openly hostile), Yemen, and Iran.

    Clearly, one does not buy an exo-atmospheric ABM like the THAAD to shoot down scuds.

    Nor does one need 302 F-15s to fight sandal-wearing Houthis. I mean, more air support is never that much, but you can't say you need that much.

    It is clear the only adversary the Saudis have in mind when they are spending $110 billion on arms in one go is Iran.

    [​IMG]

    It is estimated Saudi will fully acquire these capabilities in the next 10 years or so. Coupling these offensive capabilities with a new, aggressive "defence" "minister" (lets just call him MbS from now, it's easier), who is poised to maintain a powerful position in the Saudi family, means that it is likely there will be some sort of confrontation between Saudi and Iran in the future. I think everyone agrees that detente looks highly unlikely at the moment, and personally I'm going to say to hell with it, they started this IMO, we have no reason to look for detente even if we may accept it if it is offered. But that's my opinion. Note, I am assuming this will be initiated by the Saudi side, as Iran's military posture is defensive.

    So how can Iran's military be equipped to combat this sustained arms buying spree?

    Well, technologically speaking, Iran is advancing in 4 out of 5 relevant fields, and these fields look to be advancing at a rate that can meet threats in the next 10 years (thread will be updated)

    1. Missiles. Iran has moved away from increasing missile range to increasing missile lethality and operation. Whereas in the 90s Iran had relatively inaccurate liquid fueled missiles, which were slow to launch, relatively easy to intercept, and poor at hitting their targets, Iran now has a focus on accuracy and avoiding ABMs.

    [​IMG]
    Zolfaqar

    Now, tactical Iranian missiles like the Zolfaqar, and a re-entry vehicle called the Emad (that looks to be able to be retrofitted to all Iranian MRBMs), can evade exo-atmospheric and endo-atmospheric ABMs respectively. Please read @PeeD's excellent technical analysis for an explanation of how and why here, here, and here.

    This, in a nutshell, means Iranian missiles can be used to evade THAAD and PAC-3 by complementing each others trajectories.

    [​IMG]
    Emad

    There's also the established Khalije Fars AShBM, the first operational Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile in the world. To my knowledge Saudi ships have no defence against this.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    2. Army. This will be brief because there is unlikely to be a land confrontation between Iran and basically any state in the region, let alone Saudi. Iran's armoured forces are improving with the Karrar set to be mass manufactured. This knowledge of armour technology can help advance Iran's other armoured forces. The Army is also looking at a new "future soldier program", with new Iranian Assault rifles and armoured vests.

    Another one of the Army's programs are a series of utility and attack helicopters.

    3. Navy. The Navy is contructing another 5 Moudge class frigates in the Persian Gulf right now, in addition to the one already built. This would bring Iran's PG frigate strength to 9. It is worth noting, that the Moudge design is evolving. It now looks like this:

    [​IMG]

    Sahand, the stealthy next one looks like this:

    [​IMG]

    Shiraz, after that, looks different again!

    [​IMG]

    Much taller!

    Iran is also planning to make a 6500-7500 ton destroyer, the Persian Gulf class. Note: Iran has VLS and AESA tech.

    [​IMG]

    Iran is rolling out the new Fateh class submarine:

    [​IMG]

    4. Air Defence

    10 years ago we were begging the Russians for the S-300PMU1.

    9 years after that, we have the Bavar-373, with AESA radars and a range double the S-300PMU1. Our progress in this field has been outstanding and I'm really confident for the next 10 years if this has been the previous.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    View attachment 398404

    And our medium range missiles have advanced into the Talash system and other systems.

    [​IMG]
    Sayyad-2 missile for Talash system

    [​IMG]
    Tabas missile system


    5. Of course, Iran's Air Force is in need of serious re-organisation. UNSC 2231 which keeps arms sanctions until 18th October 2020, another 3 years and 5 months from time of writing (@BlueInGreen2). In this time Iran can either choose to pursue Russian or Chinese jets, or develop its own. As of yet we do not have enough information to determine what path Iran will take.

    But what is certain is that Iran must improve all 5 fields faster. Iran has the tech for most areas. It must now increase the military budget to mass produce these new technologies to face the threats over the horizon. The Iranian military needs a long overdue equipment update anyway. Increased economic prosperity should improve the government's ability to increase the budget in a sane and sustainable manner, unlike other regional countries I could mention.
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2017
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  2. BlueInGreen2

    BlueInGreen2 FULL MEMBER

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    It's just a lower tier American military. That's really all it is.

    But yes, those weapons are suited for offensive operations mostly.

    Iran is the target and time is running out for the Zionist Neocons agenda ( it really is a toss up though, Saudis can't fight a ground war for jack and they will form a coalition with Iran's neighbors, this is their real ace in the hole). Iran still stands in the way of full middle east dominance. Those weapons will ensure a bloody war no doubt.

    Iran needs an competent air force asap or its gonna be a hard one. When the Arms embargo going to be lifted anyways?
     
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  3. Yaseen1

    Yaseen1 SENIOR MEMBER

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    after achieving their objectives of destruction of Arab world u.s will destroy all these weapons by firing tomohawks missile through their ships at saudi bases
     
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  4. ashok321

    ashok321 ELITE MEMBER

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    A thought provoking question:

    Who will China side, if the war breaks out between the two?
     
  5. KediKesenFare

    KediKesenFare SENIOR MEMBER

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    It is for sure that China would not interfere. As long as Iran doesn't attack Qatar, even Turkey would stay neutral.

    But I do not believe that Saudi Arabia has just started an arms race with Iran. Tehran simply cannot afford to win such a competition with the GCC states. Just look at the data. GCC members are investing hundreds of billions of USD into their military capacities since years. This does not mean that Iran is weak but there is no chance for them to keep pace with the Arabs.
     
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  6. warfareknow

    warfareknow BANNED

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    [​IMG]
     
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  7. AmirPatriot

    AmirPatriot SENIOR MEMBER

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    So you think they've already won the "race"? Bear in mind, western weapons systems are expensive, are marked up to earn profit, and Iran has spent 30 years devising an asymmetric strategy to counter them. The ballistic missiles and FAC are a big part of this strategy.

    China have interests in both sides, I don't think they will take sides. They may continue to maintain Saudi's Chinese military equipment, but unlikely to be anything more concrete than that. In any case, I don't think such a conflict would last very long... the UN would probably broker some sort of ceasefire somewhere down the line.
     
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  8. AmirPatriot

    AmirPatriot SENIOR MEMBER

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    -_-
     
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  9. Fafnir

    Fafnir BANNED

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    I agree iran urgently needs to virtually completely rebuild its atrophied airforce almost from the ground up and realistically there are only a few options available to do this.Sadly the arms embargo wont be lifted for around another 3 odd years or so,evidently this was simply not one of rouhani and co`s priorities with the jcpoa negotiations,which I personally think was a grave oversight on their part,I think that considering the current very "frosty" state of western-russian relations a potentially great opportunity to acquire a lot of new very badly needed new weapons could have been lost as a result but I guess only time will tell.Hopefully with these huge saudi arms purchases rouhani and co will realise that they need to spend some very serious money on irans regular military and quickly but sadly I`m just not that optimistic about that,but time will tell I guess.
     
  10. warfareknow

    warfareknow BANNED

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    Wie bitte? Ich appreciate ihre technologische Überlegenheit..
     
  11. Awan68

    Awan68 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Iran needs to do something about their airforce, its almost nonexistant.

    The best solution i can see is start buying scores of jf 17's(block 3) when they appear in 2018, this will give u a low cost aesa, irst, bvr equipped platform which can take care of saudi f 15s if bought in ample number and flown by iranian pilots. In air defence role.

    For heavy deep penetartion strike capability, secure atleast 40 su 30's asap and in the longer run go for an inhouse assembly deal...
     
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  12. AmirPatriot

    AmirPatriot SENIOR MEMBER

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    Versuche nicht, diesen Thread zu ficken, oder ich rufe Serpentin an. :angry::lol:
    Well we got the S-300PMU2, in all honesty it takes more than 5 years to hammer out a co-production deal with the Russians for Su-30s, assuming that's actually what they are going for. Remember, its transfer of arms, not signing a piece of paper that is banned.
     
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  13. ashok321

    ashok321 ELITE MEMBER

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  14. warfareknow

    warfareknow BANNED

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    Censorship is a common tool i guess
    But nvm i didnt mean anything bad. I appreciated the advancements. :-)
     
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  15. AmirPatriot

    AmirPatriot SENIOR MEMBER

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    Saudi are planning for 302 F-15s and 72 Eurofighters. 374 4.5th gen fighters. Now, you yourself said the JF-17 would have to be bought "ample number". What is an ample number of JF-17s compared to 374 state of the art, supa dupa expensive 4.5th gen fighters? 500 JF-17? 750? 1000?

    Sometimes, it is cheaper and easier on logistics to go for quality over quantity, especially given the high technological demands of aerial combat. I'm thinking stealth which is ambitious I know, but it seems the only option to me.

    Related, but not necessarily the main topic.
     
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