• Friday, November 22, 2019

Saudi Arabia Has a Plan B to Try to Stop Iran’s Economic Rise

Discussion in 'Iranian Defence Forum' started by Arminkh, May 26, 2016.

  1. Arminkh

    Arminkh SENIOR MEMBER

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    I personally would love to see the face of the Saudi Prince when he heard Obama say:

    The Saudis must “share” their region with Iran, and was reported describing the U.S. relationship with the kingdom as “complicated.”

    Reminds me of talking to my 6 year old daughter about sharing her toys with rest of her friends :lol:

    Besides that if KSA and Bahran are really causing difficulties for ships carrying Iran's crude oil, why not return the favor in Strait of Hormuz?

    KSA has ports in the red sea that could substitute its ports in Persian Gulf eventhough most of its oil is on the Persian gulf side but Bahrain's only access to open sea is through Persian Gulf.

    I'm sure IRGC's speed boats can easily make any shipments to any of these countries much harder and make them think twice about who can sustain this game longer.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-by-saudi-arabia-to-stop-iran-s-economic-rise

    The kingdom is mobilizing its Gulf allies to make sure that Iran’s opening-up to the global economy doesn’t go smoothly.

    Ladane Nasseri LadaneNasseri

    Glen Carey
    May 25, 2016 — 4:01 PM PDT

    Saudi Arabia couldn’t stop the Iran nuclear deal from being signed. Plan B is to limit Iran’s ability to reap its benefits.

    The kingdom is mobilizing its Gulf allies to make sure that, more than four months after the lifting of sanctions on the Islamic Republic, Iran’s opening-up to the global economy doesn’t go smoothly. Last month the Saudis scuttled a bid to stabilize crude prices because it would have allowed their bitter foe to grab a larger share of oil markets. And in Dubai, once their main gateway to the world, Iranian businessmen privately complain of increasing restrictions.

    Since the easing of sanctions early this year, a key Saudi concern has been that Iran will use the proceeds of a potential wave of investment to step up engagement in regional conflicts. That’s one reason the Saudis are doing their bit to ensure the investment never arrives.


    “What has concerned people is some of the rhetoric that has been used by the Saudis around cutting trade with Iran, and what sort of formal and informal mechanisms and obstacles they can use to put pressure on businesses not to go into Iran,” said Henry Smith, a director at Global Risk Analysis in Dubai.

    Trade Ties
    Dubai is a city that’s always had close ties to Iran, but these days business licences for Iranian nationals aren’t being renewed easily. It’s also difficult for citizens to get residency, and bank accounts are coming under increased scrutiny, according to Iranian businessmen.

    Officials contacted by Bloomberg in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates didn’t immediately comment.

    [​IMG]
    Iran was U.A.E's third largest trading partner in 2015, after India and China.

    Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg
    Times Aerospace, a U.K.-based company that organizes events in Dubai, cancelled its Aviation Iran gathering this year because of political tension. “There are a lot of sensitivities at the moment with Iran in the Gulf,” Mark Brown, director of the group, said in an interview. “We recognize that it’s inappropriate at this moment to hold an Iran-related event.”

    Saudi Arabia is also using oil as a weapon against Iran. Ahead of a meeting in Doha last month, where producers were planning to freeze production, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in two interviews with Bloomberg that the Saudis would only go along with the plan if Iran agreed to participate. That effectively torpedoed the deal, since Iran has ruled out curbs on pumping because it’s trying to recover markets lost during the sanctions years.

    ‘No hesitation’
    “Oil policy was one of the instruments,” said Mustafa Alani, head of defense and security department at the Gulf Research Center. “The other thing is to counter Iranian investment in the region. Under King Salman it has become a clear-cut policy. There is no hesitation.”

    Also last month, Saudi Arabia banned Iran’s Mahan Airline from flying through Saudi airspace. Shipping insurers and brokers have been advising clients since February that ships carrying Iranian crude will not be permitted to enter Saudi or Bahraini waters, according to an April report by Control Risks. It said ships that have been to Iran as one of their last three points of entry must also receive special approval.

    Saudi rulers are complementing those efforts with attempts to deepen Iran’s political isolation in the Middle East.

    U.S. Ties
    Last month, Jordan recalled its ambassador to Iran shortly after a visit by the Saudi deputy crown prince. Ten days later, it signed an accord that could pave the way for multi-billion-dollar Saudi investments. In February, the kingdom scrapped a $3 billion deal to supply much-needed weapons to the Lebanese military, citing the rising influence of Hezbollah, a militant group backed by Tehran.

    The Saudi moves take place against the backdrop of cooler ties with the U.S., in part because of the Iranian nuclear deal. In interviews published by The Atlantic magazine, President Barack Obama said the Saudis must “share” their region with Iran, and was reported describing the U.S. relationship with the kingdom as “complicated.”

    The Saudi push is a “patchwork campaign,” Shashank Joshi, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said by phone. The Saudis can’t do much to block Iran at the global level, he said, but they’re “applying pressure on Iran wherever they are able to do so, to limit its political and economic influence.”

    But one hurdle for the Saudis is that the other Gulf Cooperation Council states, key to the effort, may not be totally on board.

    Bahrain was the only other country in the six-member GCC to follow the Saudis in cutting diplomatic ties this year. Kuwait recalled its ambassador to Tehran in January and the United Arab Emirates reduced its diplomatic representation to the level of charge d’affaires.

    The U.A.E has more at stake than the kingdom: Iran was its third largest trading partner in 2015, after India and China.

    “We still see pretty substantial disagreements within the GCC,” Joshi said. “Iran is already integrated into the Gulf economic systems, and I don’t think anything Saudi Arabia can do can seriously disentangle that.”
     
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  2. cloud4000

    cloud4000 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Before 1979, Iran was the biggest economy in the Middle East, and the strongest US ally. Since then it's been Saudi Arabia. Now things are slowly turning around again. This has the Saudi worried. No wonder Saudi Arabia launched a plan to diversify its economy beyond oil by 2030. Times are a changin'.
     
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  3. C130

    C130 ELITE MEMBER

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    who has more potential to prosper in the coming decades??? I
     
  4. cloud4000

    cloud4000 SENIOR MEMBER

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    Iran. Not only do they have oil, but a very smart and educated people. And don't rely on foreign workers to do their jobs. Only thing they need to do is to curb the power of religious clerics.
     
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  5. war&peace

    war&peace ELITE MEMBER

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    If KSA diversifies all its policies and economy, no doubt they have a potential to grow stronger than many countries in region, they have good resources now, large area and not so large population. They have started investing in education and KFUPM and KAUST really good institutions in the region. Women are getting more freedom day by day, so I guess if they really focus on it, they can do it like Shaikh Muhammad has done for Dubai...KSA can very much do that.
     
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  6. C130

    C130 ELITE MEMBER

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    I agree.
     
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  7. Joe Shearer

    Joe Shearer PROFESSIONAL

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    Iran.

    Light years ahead.
     
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  8. Kuwaiti Girl

    Kuwaiti Girl SENIOR MEMBER

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    The Saudis won't succeed.

    Game over.
     
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  9. GURU DUTT

    GURU DUTT ELITE MEMBER

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    Iran of course cause deu to almost 35 + years of sanctions Iranians have learned to make most of what they have within meager resources and had started a indegenisation hyper drive and smart diplomacy which is now bearing furits if only if they leave supporting anty israel groups like hezbullah and some others in syria and iraq and lebnon im sure they can further mend and strenthen ties with USA and even get much needed support which can take it to next level
     
  10. T-72M1

    T-72M1 BANNED

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    Iran obviously, it's not even close.
     
  11. raptor22

    raptor22 SENIOR MEMBER

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    What you say means nothing but turning back to our revolution, the reason behind learning "to make most of what they have within meager resources" as you described in your post ...
    Many countries have ties with the USA and have economic problems , even the USA has got economic problems ...
     
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  12. bozorgmehr

    bozorgmehr FULL MEMBER

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    Raptor jan, there's no value in regurgitating slogans and predigested ideas.... The US has economic problems? What does that mean? What are economic problems in your book? And what does having economic problems prove? Were they supposed to be problemless? Were they supposed to have reached perfection? Is that the criterion you use? Either you're problemless or it's all the same? Is there no better and worse, on in between state?

    Please think for yourself and use your own thoughts... God gave each of us a unique mind and independent judgment. By ignoring it, we are turning our back on god's creation..
     
  13. GURU DUTT

    GURU DUTT ELITE MEMBER

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    OK i mean to say

    1.Iran is way way ahead of saudi arabia cause they have with there own inguinity developed all the skills required to be great siectifically developed nation despite technology and economick sanctions by the west for more than 35 years

    2.by saying making most of with meager resources means resoursec like new kinds of allied techs and latest toolings and manufacturing and learning skills which were not given to iran deu to sanctions

    3.its a no brainer to think a nation with second largest gas and petroleum reserves dont have money as money sometimes is not the only criteria of growth you also need BAD for it & here BAD means Balls -Attitude & Direction which proud race of persians always had but filthy oil rich saudies lacked it

    Hope i have made my point of view clear @raptor22
     
  14. ADIL SHERDIL

    ADIL SHERDIL FULL MEMBER

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    well one can say USA is changing its allies in this region.iran will grow financially but they will not be part of USA misadventutes anymore like before. loyalities are going to be shifted now.
    modi went to.dubai then saudia and now to iran he is either very smart or has done some blunder. he want to keep all three country happy but my guess is Saudis would not be happy about it which mean UAE wont be happy. Power struggle has started in M.E and i hope they dont fight some proxy war in another country just like they did in Yemen
     
  15. raptor22

    raptor22 SENIOR MEMBER

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    By saying that American has economic problems I did not mean that their economy is about to collapse or we shouldn't have relations with the other nations what I meant is simple for example we have failed to come up with a good plan for the future of our country for several decades and as it seems this vicious cycles is gonna get repeated over and over in the future ...

    Shah had the best relations with America and Israel in fact he was their best ally in the region .. once oil prices rose due to Arab-Israel war back in 1974 he thought that he was standing before the gate of civilization and should build the country by the petrodollars he earned but unfortunately he didn't realized that it's a two edged blade therefore didn't listen to economists and even called them idiots , in fact to bring his dreams into the reality he needed Rial to build schools , hospitals roads etc. within the country what he didn't have he just had $ hence he injected it into the market and let merchants to import goods in exchange of Rial what happened at the end was nothing by high inflation + rising unemployment rate + increase in money stock .... our shops and market were full of foreign goods and commodities resulted in dutch disease .... Iranian workers lost their jobs , production stopped which means recession + high inflation due to money stock .... it was one the main reasons that ignited 1979 revolution ....
    The same happened after Iran-Iraq war , the president of the time "Akbar Hashemi" called himself "Sardar Sazandegi" .... the same policy were taken resulted in inflation rate of 50% and unemployment .... not to mentioned riots taken place in Khorasan province and some people were killed ...
    Again back in 2007 Ahmadnejad did the same , he couldn't resist when oil prices jumped to 140 $ per barrel and adopted populist policies ... results were as same as two previous aforementioned situations .... inflation rate of 45% ...

    See? we don't learn and repeat our mistakes over and over .....
    I am not saying that we should produce everything inside the country on the contrary I am saying it's not logical to do so .... we have comparative advantages in some fields like tourism and we should work on them but when we've failed to plan a scientific reasoned long lasting economic strategy to boost our economy indexes for several decades having ties with other countries just could grease wheels of our economy while the engine's suffocated .... ....

    Thx ... Sure we could and it's possible ... we have all needed factors to step in that way from a great history, culture and young educated people to large oil and gas resources ...
     
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