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oberschlesier

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I see them as liability because neither they or Western Europe is united under single political rule and single armed forces. Again i am seeing this through a non-NATO lense. In a hypothetical situation where Europe has to stand up for itself, alone.
The EU is the potential( and pretty funtional ) single political rule and economic rule.
Militarly Europe has much more potential and will find a way via the EU in the end,
Nothing unites so much as a commom enemy.

For eastern Europe, don`t worry, the Germans will defend the Lidls.

You assume, there would be no NATO, it`s very unlikely, otherwise you would have nuclear proliferation.


True Ukraine was poorest man in Europe but it has recieved massive political, economical and millitary help from Europe and USA, short of only boots on the ground. I wouldnt overestimate Russia, neither underestimate it looking at the history.
Well, until now they got less Military help in USD, that is the yearly polish furniture export( very huge ). Now they are staring to get help with those 40B package. Before the war many Ukrainians were working in the EU, as the salaries were better, than in Russia, this is not help, rather better policy.
 

Gomig-21

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At the present day, the R-37M is only integrated to the MiG-31BM,

It has also been integrated on the Su-35 and the Su-57.

And what d'you want to do with a 600kg R-37M?

Who knows? They have their own protocols and apparently this thing was flying in Russian air space, not in Ukrainian air and could very well be performing defensive duties for any breach into Russian territory. You can't just exclude the simple scenarios and think you know exactly when and where and how any particular platform is used by any air force or military. They all have their own reasons.

It's not an MBDA Meteor pulling 40G or a MICA-NG or IRIS-T pulling 50G...

It's not comparable to those other ones in pulling Gs, but it is in range.
 

oberschlesier

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I wouldnt overestimate Russia, neither underestimate it looking at the history.
When it comes to History:
Well, Russia lost the war with Japan( 1905), Poland(1920), Finland(1940). The war with nazi Geramny they baerly won, with the help of the West.

Anyway, More important, when it comes to Ukraine, the Russian are breaking right now this:

Polish geostrategists cannot really get out of their joy, how stupid this is.
 
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WotTen

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Western culture is too alluring for most of humanity.

The other factor is that Western products are usually built at higher quality standards than from other countries. You buy a German machine tool and it will probably be usable by your grandchildren!

In a sense, this is also a reflection of culture. Many places around the world consider it OK to cut corners -- what can you get away with if no one's looking -- but Western companies enforce higher quality standards.
 

ckf

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This war shows that Europe has been sleepwalking under US protection.

It is clear that without the US, Europe neither has political cohesion or millitary coordination to stand against a Russian game in its own backyard.

Europe should have created a combined Armed Forces long time ago. While its economic and market power is Tier 1 together with USA and China, its hard power (millitary) and political side is very shaky. Without strong armed forces under single political rule, Europe will never achieve its goal of being a equal to the likes of US and China.

Sad but unfortunately also true
Have you consider that this proxy war, US ultimate goal is also to weaken EU as well. By planting division between Ukraine/former soviet block eastern europe now part of EU against Russia, seeds of malcontent will manifest into long term confrontational economic/political division within EU. Ultimate goal is to weaken Euro as a viable fiat currency against US dollar in the multi-polar world. Von der Leyen, Scholz, and Borrell still consider Americans as their friends even as Briexit was clearly planted by the Americans to weaken euro.
 

jhungary

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Dubbed "Game Changer " billed has passed by US Senate (86 to 11, you need 66% to pass a bill in Senate) despite Rand Paul best effort to block it from passing (Some people here even go so far saying the bill is dead, but then they probably did not know how US legislation work)

so 40 billions of aid incoming by the end of year. This will change the landscape of the Ukrainian battlefield seeing the aide the US current gave are in hundred of millions dollars each. This would be the motherload.
 

Brainsucker

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At the same time, ruSSia is absolutely failing in its own backyard

At the present day, the R-37M is only integrated to the MiG-31BM, I'm even dubious about the interest of integrating this on other platforms, it's probably the only potential asset that may be used against an AWACS or Tanker kept out from long range SAMs profile...
And what d'you want to do with a 600kg R-37M? It'd already impressive if this thing can pull a 20-24G manoeuvre. You need the quarter to dodge a missile. Even a basic trainer sailplane has no issues at pulling 6G, some competition ones are rated for 9G if not more... R-37M was designed to shoot down AWACS, bombers, tankers, cargoes and if you have some ruSSian SS war crimes urges, some airliners, you know, MH-17, South Korean Airlines flight 007... It's not an MBDA Meteor pulling 40G or a MICA-NG or IRIS-T pulling 50G...
Unfortunately, UkrAF has no such platforms to shoot down while, since they can rely on NATO intelligence, the NOSTRADAMUS detects stealth objects like a B-2 from 3000km+ with 5km accuracy, and, according to Indian AF, the Su-57 is nowhere as stealth as announced ...
fnke.jpg

Time to consider Putin up a nice SAM trap to make UAC pay for the destruction of the An-225 Mryia by ruining the future sales of the Su-57...
Once the Orcs kicked back into Mordor, the only thing Rosoboronexport will still be able to sell will be some Avtomata Kalashnikovas.

Stalin had no issues at teaming with Hitler, and he didn't needed the naZis to orchestrate the Holodomor in Ukraine and Moldova.
Putler speaks like naZis did, thinkslike naZis did and actslike naZis did.
1myj.jpg

So let me introduce you to a REAL naZi
sja8.jpg


At the same time, ruSSia is absolutely failing in its own backyard.
We're advocating for a way more integrated EU defence policy but the issues come on one side from the little "Atlantists" who all hammer that the EU can't defend itself w.o. the Yankees, which is simply ridiculous : our cumulated armed forces have 50% more personnel, and we have more combat aircraft and of better quality than the Ru ones, when it comes to the Eurocanards, these are better than US jets.
AMX-Leclerc survived Konkurs and Kornet direct hits in Yemen with just some scratches and damages to optics, etc...
But the main issue is Germany which, for historical reasons, insists to rely on soft power alone... Actually, it could be OK, they can even have a smaller army, all that would be necessary would be spending their 2%, we can organize the remainder, Let Germany be the good cop and France be the bad cop.

It was destroyed due to ruSSian, not western interference! Ukraine is a SOVEREIGN NATION and MEMBER OF THE UN. ruSSia has no business here and is acting in absolute violation of ALL international laws. If you have complaints, call Vladolf Putler, BTW, I let you guess who will have issues with food! This rascal is just blackmailing the whole third-world with an holodomor just like Stalin forced Ukraine to bow to the Soviets : by famine!
So, Mordor army acts like the Waffen-SS or the Orcs, while Putler is into starving the poorest on the planet...
Actually, it's high time for a Flying Tigers air-regiment in Ukrainian Air Force, let's field serious aircraft including those able to bust S-400 batteries and enforce an absolute air superiority and nonetheless a no fly zone, but also a no drive zone and a no float zone...
Moreover, US ships can covertly demolish ruSSian spy satellites using the SM-3 where these can't detect ASAT launches.

If Putler was so concerned about an alleged oppression against Russian-speaking Ukrainians by some Nazis [funny fact, Zelenskyi is of a Russian-speaking family and is a Jew... How funny, the Azov battalion didn't tried to murder him], well, Putler should have done just like Israel : send special forces in protection and evacuate them to Russia just like the Spetsznaz evacuated Yanukovich!!!
And don't tell me Russia lacks of room and has too much population :
igs2.jpg

OK, such projection is a bit exaggerated, Russia's real size is about the half of Africa:
e4fk.jpg

The population is about the 10th of China and not even what France+Germany cumulate, and they don't even have scouted all available natural resources...
69.Population_density-administrative_boundaries-ma.png

Actually, it's super-easy to migrate to Russia...
So, what's the point of Putler's expansionism?
8142.jpg

What can Russia bring is this:
1eg1.jpg

Guess why ruSSian waffen-SS is looting things like washing machines? All those SS from Siberia have never seen one! Chechen are more advanced, they stole harvesting machines, but surely have pestered when they got that these freaking expensive stuff can be remotely blocked and have satellite tracking too!
Well not all Russians don't have toilets... Some even have $75,000 toilets in their aircraft...
c4rl.jpg

6lja.jpg
I don't know what is your intention to post such a long pointless post like this. Are you a propagandist to discredit Russia or just want to troll people in here. But let me tell you. PDF is full of troll, but they're smart and grown up. A provocative troll post like yours won't spark the interest of the trolls in PDF. You need to feed them with smarter posts, like what @jhungary write if you want to make people leans their eyes on your thought. Or else people will think you as a kid like Appollon.
 

Paul2

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It is clear that without the US, Europe neither has political cohesion or millitary coordination to stand against a Russian game in its own backyard.
The Europe having no political cohesion or military coordination now is because US always been marshalling Europeans around for these matters, and now it refuses to.

SACEUR is American, and now he could've done way more things besides sitting in a bunker in Belgium.

Just look at NATO logistics in Europe. From people more intimately involved, I hear that European NATO members can barely ship even infantry gear on their own without logistics coordination from US military organs in Europe.
 

TruthSeeker

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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 20​

May 20, 2022 - Press ISW
ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20%20%20NAME_ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20NAME%20CMYK_422.png

Download the PDF

Karolina Hird, Frederick W. Kagan, and George Barros
May 20, 5:30 ET
Russian forces are focusing on digging in and reinforcing defensive positions in Kharkiv and along the Southern Axis in preparation for Ukrainian counteroffensives, while the majority of active offensive operations remain confined to Izyum-Donetsk City arc and especially the Popasna-Severodonetsk area.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are creating secondary defensive lines on the Southern Axis, indicating that the Russian grouping in this area may be preparing for a major Ukrainian counter-offensive and a protracted conflict. Russian forces reportedly are holding defensive positions north of Kharkiv City following the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive since May 5 and have conducted limited spoiling attacks either to give Russian forces time to complete their redeployment back to Russia in good order or to allow reinforcements to arrive to defend territory in Kharkiv Oblast. Significant Russian offensive operations are confined to the area of Severodonetsk. Russian troops have made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of the city, especially around Popasna, in order to attempt to take control of Severodonetsk.
Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces may have made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of Popasna in order to continue their offensive on Severodonetsk from the south.
  • Russian sources may be overstating the number of Ukrainian defenders who have been evacuated from Azovstal to either maximize the number of Russian prisoners of war who may be exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers or to avoid the embarrassment of admitting they have been locked into a months-long siege against only “hundreds” of Ukrainian soldiers.
  • Russian troops reportedly regained certain positions taken by the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City.
  • Russian forces are likely preparing for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive and protracted conflict on the Southern Axis.
Assessed Control of Terrain in Ukraine

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time. We have stopped coverage of supporting effort 4, ”Sumy and northeastern Ukraine,” because it is no longer an active effort.:

  • Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
  • Subordinate main effort- Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
  • Supporting effort 1—Mariupol;
  • Supporting effort 2—Kharkiv City;
  • Supporting effort 3—Southern axis.
Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces conducted unspecified offensive operations in the direction of Slovyansk but did not make any confirmed advances on May 20.[ii] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops are attempting to erect a pontoon bridge over the Severskyi Donets River in the vicinity of Yaremivka, about 25 kilometers southeast of Izyum in the direction of Slovyansk.[iii] Russian forces additionally conducted artillery strikes on Dovhenke and Dolyna, both southeast of Izyum heading towards Slovyansk.[iv]
Russian forces reportedly intensified efforts to break through Ukrainian defenses around Popasna in order to push towards Severodonetsk from the south on May 20. Pro-Russian news sources reported that Russian forces made advances through Ukrainian lines of defense in three directions. Russian Airborne (VDV) forces reportedly took control of Volodymirivka and Lypove, and broke through Ukrainian defenses in Komyshuvakha, all north of Popasna.[v] Troops of the Russian ”Wagner” Private Military Company reportedly took control of Trypillya and Vyskrivka to the west of Popasna.[vi] Ukrainian sources noted that offensive operations are on-going in Vyskrivka.[vii] Russian forces additionally reportedly took control of Troitske, south of Popasna.[viii] Such reports are consistent with Ukrainian General Staff statements that the Russian grouping around Popasna is trying to take new frontiers in the area.[ix] NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management (FIRMS) data, however, does not show a concentration of fires in this area, which may suggest that the Russian sources are exaggerating the scale or significance of the attacks, although the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence in this case.[x] The purported encirclement of the Popasna area may be an effort to break through Ukrainian defenses in order to provide support for the on-going battle for Severodonetsk, where Russian troops are making marginal gains and reportedly took control of Shchedryshcheve and Syrotne, just north of Severodonetsk.[xi]
Russian forces reportedly made marginal gains during ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on May 20. Pro-Russian Telegram channels stated that Russian forces are trying to encircle a Ukrainian grouping around Svyatohirsk and are storming Yarova, both west of Lyman and within 10 kilometers of the border with Kharkiv Oblast.[xii] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are continuing offensive operations around Lyman and will likely continue to push west to meet Russian forces in Southern Kharkiv Oblast.[xiii] Russian forces are additionally conducting unsuccessful assault operations around Donetsk City in the vicinity of Avdiivka and Novobakhmutivka.[xiv]
Control of Terrain Around Luhansk

Supporting Effort #1—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders)
Russian sources may be overstating the number of Ukrainian defenders who have been evacuated from the Azovstal Steel Plant as of May 20. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu stated that nearly 2,000 Ukrainian fighters have left Azovstal since evacuations began, whereas the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) reported that it has registered only “hundreds” of Ukrainian prisoners of war.[xv] The discrepancy could result merely from delays in ICRC registrations or reporting. Official Russian sources may also be obfuscating the true number of evacuees for various reasons, however. The Russians might claim that they have captured more Ukrainian soldiers than they actually did in order to maximize the number of Russian prisoners that can be exchanged should they agree on a prisoner swap with Ukraine. The Russian leadership may also seek to avoid the embarrassment of admitting that their forces have been locked in a months-long siege by ”hundreds” rather than ”thousands” of Ukrainian defenders. Commander of the Azov Regiment Denis Prokopenko additionally stated that he has given the command to stop the defense of Mariupol to save the lives of the defenders of Azovstal, so evacuation numbers will likely rise in the coming days.[xvi]
The Ukrainian General Staff reports that Russian forces are continuing filtration measures in Mariupol.[xvii] Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko additionally made a number of claims that ISW cannot independently verify. He asserted that Russian troops are planning to use filtration camps in Mariupol to forcibly mobilize men into the militia of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR).[xviii] He claimed that the Russian occupation administration in Mariupol is planning a census for men aged 18 to 50 to further force mobilization into the DNR.[xix] He also asserted that four schools in Mariupol are set to open by the end of May under ”Russian standards and Russian programs,” with a full implementation of Russian curricula reportedly slated for fall of 2022.[xx] Andryushchenko’s claims are consistent with overall trends of filtration and occupation processes in Mariupol that ISW has been able to verify through other sources, although these particular claims are unverified at this time.
Mariupol

Supporting Effort #2—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces focused on regaining positions taken by Ukrainian forces during the counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City on May 20.[xxi] Russian forces are reportedly fighting in Vesele, Tsyrkuny, Zolochiv, and Ternova and may have recaptured Ternova and Rubizhne, although ISW cannot independently confirm these claims at this time.[xxii] Such efforts are likely spoiling attacks meant to disrupt the Ukrainian counteroffensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast with the intention of either buying Russian forces time to withdraw and redeploy to other axes of advance or to reinforce defensive positions to the north of Kharkiv City. Russian forces additionally continued to shell Kharkiv City and its environs, likely to further distract Ukrainian forces from cohering offensive actions towards the Russian border.[xxiii]
Mariupol

Supporting Effort #3—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces focused on strengthening existing defensive lines and creating secondary defensive lines on the Southern Axis but did not make any confirmed advances on May 20.[xxiv] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops are bringing engineering equipment to frontlines on the Southern Axis to construct a second line of defense, which likely indicates that Russian forces are preparing to defend against possible Ukrainian counter-offensives and settling in for protracted operations in Southern Ukraine.[xxv] Russian forces conducted rocket, missile, and artillery attacks against Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa Oblasts.[xxvi]
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian special services are continuing to destabilize the situation in Transnistria through disseminating disinformation about the mining of social infrastructure and state institutions in Tiraspol, Bender, Dubossary, and Rybnytsia.[xxvii]
Kherson

Immediate items to watch
  • Russian forces will likely complete their withdrawal from the vicinity of Kharkiv City but attempt to hold a line west of Vovchansk to defend their GLOCs from Belgorod to Izyum. It is unclear if they will succeed.
  • The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at least from the south, possibly by focusing on cutting off the last highway connecting Severodonetsk-Lysychansk with the rest of Ukraine.
  • Russian forces are likely preparing for Ukrainian counteroffensives and settling in for protracted operations in Southern Ukraine.
 

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