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Raffie

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Youre saying France will nuke Russia if Russia attackes Finland? What makes you believe the French are dumb?

If you wanna play the nuke game there is really one nation that has enough of them to destroy Russia, and that is The USA. Russia would of course retaliate and destroy USA too.
In fact Russia has enough nukes to totally destroy France and UK, which are the only nuclear powers in Europe. But neither of them have enoug nukes to destroy Russia completley.
You don't get what the 3rd gen stealth that was mounted onboard the M51.3 SLBM is!!!
french-navy-triomphant-class-submarine-conducts-test-fire-of-m51-3-ballistic-missile.jpg

it simply absorbs ANY type of radar waves, including from OTHRs like the 29B6 Konteyner. It's in service since June 2020 for the M51 missile. Rafale F4 receives this too and so will the ASN4G hypersonic nuclear cruise missile...
So, what happens? No detection from where it comes before the MIRVs are released... This is no 200 seconds warning, it's 20 to 30s and it's a bit too late to order retaliations in case of first strike... Moreover, go figure who launched, how it did happened... Who knows, it may even be launched from Iranian territorial waters, some unloaded missiles with stealth off may even be launched towards Israel and USA : you just need to read Khamenei's Twitter to conclude he's totally bonkers...
With such a tool, we can absolutely play dirty.

Moreover, France LIES about its nuclear stockpile, I'm well placed to know this: the public is only told about the peace-time "active" nukes : this means those ready to be launched 24/7/365 in retaliation for a surprise attack, so this means the 2 SSBNs that are permanently at sea with 16 M51.3 SLBMs, each having 10 MIRVs...
Following Popovs' nuclear threats, guess what? The 4 subs are at sea and the ASMPA-R Mach-3 ALCMs have been deployed... Aren't there some Rafales in the Baltic states? ASMP ranged 300km+, ASMPA ranged 500km+, ASMPA-R has seen its range extended (likely 750-800km now) and, how funny, France did another test on March 23rd 2022...
e7nm.jpg

Then, you know, there is no need to fully destroy Russia!!! The 3 quarters of the country are near empty :
7a21c1a3919e2f285ee58ef7641555bd.png


So, you know, with 640 MIRVs and 58 ALCMs, knowing that the French ones are often confused with neutron-bombs due to enhanced radiation effect that implies that the lethality is multiplied by 10, so, e.g. a 100 kt will send ad patres as much ppl as if it was an 1 megaton one, except that instead of being immediately wiped out by the thermal effect, they will suffer a slow and painful death by ARS while survivors will be slowly eaten by cancer... It's even nastier is case of surface blast as the ground materials that are neutron-activated will be way more radio-active, in case of surface blast, the fallouts would look like Chernobyl's Red Forrest in May 1986, except this intensity would spread to about 5000km²+ for a 100kt and to 10,000km²+ for a 300kt while you can double-triple the area for the edge of 1 rad/h zone. Pay a visit to Pripyat and the guide will tell you to move away from the area when it barely radiates 0.05 rad/h. OK, at 1 rad/h you would only start to puke and defecate in your pants after a week, you'll only be a castrated zombie after 2 weeks and reach a lethal dose after a month, and, any way, even at 0.1rad/h, the area is FUBAR...
Now you surely know that in order to please the ecologists, French govt. publishes nuclear dismantlement, don't you? Take the Hades which was similar to the Iskander, except there were two per TEL and the TEL looked like a normal truck:
rue5.jpg

On 23 June 1997 the last of the Hadès missiles was destroyed... Now, if all the cold war IRBMs on the Plateau d'Albion etc, were dismantled, I've NEVER read about the dismantlement of the 452 Cold War era city-buster warheads between 800 kt and 1.2 Mt, but one thing for sure : the 250kg payload of the MdCN is enough for 1 megaton, the 450kg payload of the SCALP is enough for 1.8 megaton

So, you know, it makes no difference if Russia can fully destroy the UK, France or the USA: the only difference is that Russians will die slowly, first symptoms will be a headache like they never had, then diarrhea and puking and I prefer not speaking about further effects of ARS, so, you know what? I definitively prefer being at the receiving end of the Tsar-Bomba than by a TNO (Tête Nucléaire Océanique) or by a TNA (Tête Nucléaire Aéroportée) and not being wiped out due to the rather moderate yield and the even less destructive surface burst, because I know about the totally insane levels of radiations and fallouts that will be released...

Then, some more fun : Map of French NPPs:
8ug1.jpg

Near all French NPPs have 4x 3817 MWth reactors, sometimes only two... In Chernobyl, there were 4x 3200 MWth reactors and only one was blown up... Just nuke the area where I live, get 4.77x the Chernobyl disaster as a special prize :lol: I can tell you that the Chernobyl fallouts did their world tour several times, just like Céline Dion :lol:
Moreover, EDF owns the biggest stockpile of enriched uranium, and this is not including the 30t+ of mil-grade plutonium which is assuredly stored in a military facility... My 2 cts that if these end in a nuke's fireball, there won't be any need for these to reach the critical mass to detonate, you know, same effect as a thermonuclear when you have a double flash :lol: Now I can't tell about the exact effect but with such a quantity, the only thing that is certain, it'd make the Tsar Bomba look like a joke, so... maybe... :lol:
pp1n.jpg

There's something dumber than nuking Russia : it's nuking France because it's the most nuclear country on the planet...

And, another point for fun? Ever heard about the CERN https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CERN
You surely know that it's the #1 antimatter production + storage facility and that they allegdly have already opened two tiny wormholes for short time, but, IDK if it's still on their Facebook page,, but there once was this in the pictures...
r7zl.jpg

Some feared they may create a blackhole by accident while using the LHC. They said it can't happen as an accident, they didn't said that it can't happen at all... And the LHC is dug enough deep to withstand direct nuke blasts, so, you know, Putler can have as many nukes he wants :lol:

Why limiting yourself at destroying Russia when you can do a nicer fireworks?
iu

Frankly? Who wants to live in Mordor with a Putler (or uncle-Xi) posing as Sauron and with orcs everywhere?
 

khansaheeb

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US Senate passes whopping $40 billion in aid for Ukraine​

Thursday, 19 May 2022 8:48 PM [ Last Update: Thursday, 19 May 2022 8:48 PM ]

US Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) (L) talks with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) during a rally with fellow Democrats before voting on H.R. 1, or the People Act, on the East Steps of the US Capitol on March 08, 2019 in Washington, DC. (AFP photo)

File photo of the United States Senate building in Washington, DC
The US Senate has approved more than $40 billion in new “aid” for Ukraine, which has been the site of a Russian military operation since February.
The legislative body gave its blessing to the monumental package on Thursday, with 86 votes in favor and 11 against, the Bloomberg news agency reported.
“The message this sends is that the United States is committed, that we are going to stand with any country that is a democracy when there is an autocracy that attempts to overrun it,” Idaho Republican Jim Risch alleged.
This comes after objections by Kentucky Senator Rand Paul had delayed passage of the bill for an entire week.
“If Congress really believed giving Ukraine $40 bn was in our national interest, they could easily pay for it by taxing every income taxpayer $500,” Paul tweeted on Thursday.
The bill cleared the House of Representatives last week on a 368 to 57 vote.
The package, which is significantly larger than the $33 billion that Joe Biden had requested for Ukraine last month, now only awaits the president’s signature.
Separately, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he had authorized $100 million in additional US arms, equipment, and supplies for Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the “special military operation” on February 24 in order to “demilitarize” the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine. In 2014, the two regions declared themselves new republics, refusing to recognize Ukraine’s Western-backed government.
Ordering the operation, Putin said the mission was aimed at “defending people who for eight years were suffering persecution and genocide by the Kiev regime.”
Another goal sought by the operation was to “de-Nazify” Ukraine, the Russian head of state also said back then, apparently referring to the far-right Azov militant outfit and the influence it wields across Ukraine’s political and military spheres.
Press TV in Mariupol: Ukraine blew up theater to blame it on Russia
Press TV in Mariupol: Ukraine blew up theater to blame it on Russia
Ukraine blew up Mariupol
Also on Thursday, the Group of Seven so-called “advanced economies” that gather Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the United States, agreed to provide Ukraine with $18.4 billion.
The group said the money was to be used towards Ukraine’s “paying its bills,” Reuters reported.
Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said the funds “would speed up Kiev's victory over Russia” and were just “as important as "the weapons you provide," the agency added.
The Western side has, on the other hand, been showering Russia with sanctions since the launch of the operation.
Moscow has unequivocally warned that the unfaltering Western support for the Ukrainian side would indefinitely prolong the war.
It has also vowed to end the operation once its “security demands” were met. The list of demands include provision of security for Russia’s interests in Ukraine and prevention of the ex-Soviet republic’s admission into the Western military alliance of NATO.

Press TV’s website can also be accessed at the following alternate addresses:
www.presstv.ir
www.presstv.co.uk
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Paul2

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You don't get what the 3rd gen stealth that was mounted onboard the M51.3 SLBM is!!!
french-navy-triomphant-class-submarine-conducts-test-fire-of-m51-3-ballistic-missile.jpg

it simply absorbs ANY type of radar waves, including from OTHRs like the 29B6 Konteyner. It's in service since June 2020 for the M51 missile. Rafale F4 receives this too and so will the ASN4G hypersonic nuclear cruise missile...
So, what happens? No detection from where it comes before the MIRVs are released... This is no 200 seconds warning, it's 20 to 30s and it's a bit too late to order retaliations in case of first strike... Moreover, go figure who launched, how it did happened... Who knows, it may even be launched from Iranian territorial waters, some unloaded missiles with stealth off may even be launched towards Israel and USA : you just need to read Khamenei's Twitter to conclude he's totally bonkers...
With such a tool, we can absolutely play dirty.

Moreover, France LIES about its nuclear stockpile, I'm well placed to know this: the public is only told about the peace-time "active" nukes : this means those ready to be launched 24/7/365 in retaliation for a surprise attack, so this means the 2 SSBNs that are permanently at sea with 16 M51.3 SLBMs, each having 10 MIRVs...
Following Popovs' nuclear threats, guess what? The 4 subs are at sea and the ASMPA-R Mach-3 ALCMs have been deployed... Aren't there some Rafales in the Baltic states? ASMP ranged 300km+, ASMPA ranged 500km+, ASMPA-R has seen its range extended (likely 750-800km now) and, how funny, France did another test on March 23rd 2022...
e7nm.jpg

Then, you know, there is no need to fully destroy Russia!!! The 3 quarters of the country are near empty :
7a21c1a3919e2f285ee58ef7641555bd.png


So, you know, with 640 MIRVs and 58 ALCMs, knowing that the French ones are often confused with neutron-bombs due to enhanced radiation effect that implies that the lethality is multiplied by 10, so, e.g. a 100 kt will send ad patres as much ppl as if it was an 1 megaton one, except that instead of being immediately wiped out by the thermal effect, they will suffer a slow and painful death by ARS while survivors will be slowly eaten by cancer... It's even nastier is case of surface blast as the ground materials that are neutron-activated will be way more radio-active, in case of surface blast, the fallouts would look like Chernobyl's Red Forrest in May 1986, except this intensity would spread to about 5000km²+ for a 100kt and to 10,000km²+ for a 300kt while you can double-triple the area for the edge of 1 rad/h zone. Pay a visit to Pripyat and the guide will tell you to move away from the area when it barely radiates 0.05 rad/h. OK, at 1 rad/h you would only start to puke and defecate in your pants after a week, you'll only be a castrated zombie after 2 weeks and reach a lethal dose after a month, and, any way, even at 0.1rad/h, the area is FUBAR...
Now you surely know that in order to please the ecologists, French govt. publishes nuclear dismantlement, don't you? Take the Hades which was similar to the Iskander, except there were two per TEL and the TEL looked like a normal truck:
rue5.jpg

On 23 June 1997 the last of the Hadès missiles was destroyed... Now, if all the cold war IRBMs on the Plateau d'Albion etc, were dismantled, I've NEVER read about the dismantlement of the 452 Cold War era city-buster warheads between 800 kt and 1.2 Mt, but one thing for sure : the 250kg payload of the MdCN is enough for 1 megaton, the 450kg payload of the SCALP is enough for 1.8 megaton

So, you know, it makes no difference if Russia can fully destroy the UK, France or the USA: the only difference is that Russians will die slowly, first symptoms will be a headache like they never had, then diarrhea and puking and I prefer not speaking about further effects of ARS, so, you know what? I definitively prefer being at the receiving end of the Tsar-Bomba than by a TNO (Tête Nucléaire Océanique) or by a TNA (Tête Nucléaire Aéroportée) and not being wiped out due to the rather moderate yield and the even less destructive surface burst, because I know about the totally insane levels of radiations and fallouts that will be released...

Then, some more fun : Map of French NPPs:
8ug1.jpg

Near all French NPPs have 4x 3817 MWth reactors, sometimes only two... In Chernobyl, there were 4x 3200 MWth reactors and only one was blown up... Just nuke the area where I live, get 4.77x the Chernobyl disaster as a special prize :lol: I can tell you that the Chernobyl fallouts did their world tour several times, just like Céline Dion :lol:
Moreover, EDF owns the biggest stockpile of enriched uranium, and this is not including the 30t+ of mil-grade plutonium which is assuredly stored in a military facility... My 2 cts that if these end in a nuke's fireball, there won't be any need for these to reach the critical mass to detonate, you know, same effect as a thermonuclear when you have a double flash :lol: Now I can't tell about the exact effect but with such a quantity, the only thing that is certain, it'd make the Tsar Bomba look like a joke, so... maybe... :lol:
pp1n.jpg

There's something dumber than nuking Russia : it's nuking France because it's the most nuclear country on the planet...

And, another point for fun? Ever heard about the CERN https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CERN
You surely know that it's the #1 antimatter production + storage facility and that they allegdly have already opened two tiny wormholes for short time, but, IDK if it's still on their Facebook page,, but there once was this in the pictures...
r7zl.jpg

Some feared they may create a blackhole by accident while using the LHC. They said it can't happen as an accident, they didn't said that it can't happen at all... And the LHC is dug enough deep to withstand direct nuke blasts, so, you know, Putler can have as many nukes he wants :lol:

Why limiting yourself at destroying Russia when you can do a nicer fireworks?
iu

Frankly? Who wants to live in Mordor with a Putler (or uncle-Xi) posing as Sauron and with orcs everywhere?

You don't need to nuke Russia, you only need to nuke Moscow.

Moscow is Russia for all intents, and purposes.

Russia is more centralised than UK, Japan, or Thailand.

The capital region is pretty much a city-state, and the rest of Russia acts as a colonial territory.

1653003834535.png


In Russia, most of the country is wooden sticks except for Moscow

Things probably changed a bit since my last time in Russia in nineties, but I've never seen such disparity in "on paper" wealth, and reality.

My father told me we are going to see a rich country with oil, but only Moscow was rich, everything else were sticks. We only seen 1 city along the way with concrete buildings.

Very much like how North Korea been until the last Kim.

After googling pictures how most of Russia looks now, I'm it's surprised how little has changed given the amount of oil they have.

It look may look so. Eating few megatons, and losing few millions will probably be to Russia as a country like .22 to an elephant, but not so much to Russia as a state.

I rode train no. 4 with father to Moscow in mid-nineties, and Russia was sooo empty. Most of Russia is empty, and that's the point. Moscow is like 50% of Russia GDP.

And you know, money is power. Nobody can rule without money, and especially if that state already been half-assing the military funding before that irrecoverable hit comes.

You can rally people into a rebuilding project if they believe there is something worth rebuilding. And if not, and your state was already a late stage decay, elites will instead deliver a finishing blow to you, and go serve the new master... "leaders first"

How countries die?

Really, look no further than Iraq.

It's supposedly a functioning state, but de-facto it's anything, but a state.

I really believe USA tried, and tried really hard to preserve Iraq's statehood, but in the end "the medical science can transplant a heart today, but brain death is still irreversible"


For Iraq to regain a functioning statehood, it will either need a really long time to recover naturally, or it will have to fail completely, to let something new entirely to be created from its pieces.

Russia may be on it's way to Iraqing very soon too. The moment Moscow goes broke, we get an imperial state which is suddenly realises it paid to imperialise all these territories, but no money left for soldier there to eat.
 
Last edited:

Hassan Al-Somal

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Do you guys think this plan is still workable or is too late now??
@Apollon @Hassan Al-Somal @Vergennes @jamahir.
Please pardon my ignorance, but was it the plan before? I am a bit late to follow This Russian-Ukrainian military conflict (generally I didn't follow the political development in Europe prior to this war).



It is not workable because there would be no agreement on #Donbas. Zelensky/Ukraine refused to implement Minsk II agreement that gave autonomy to the Russian-speaking East. Instead, they opted for a military solution and did everything they could to subdue these communities. This is what triggered Russia's entry into the war.

Second, allowing Ukraine to enter EU means they'll be part of the collective EU security - meaning any conflict between Ukraine and Russia would be one that is between Russia and the whole of EU that will also bring direct NATO's involvement. The "Neutral" status mentioned in that proposal is just a lip service.

On Crimea, I doubt Russia is willing to renegotiate on this important island.

To sum it up, that is not a workable solution. Any plan that doesn't recognize the independence of Russian-speaking East in Ukraine (or aka #Donbas) is dead on arrival.
 

The SC

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You don't need to nuke Russia, you only need to nuke Moscow.

Moscow is Russia for all intents, and purposes.

Russia is more centralised than UK, Japan, or Thailand.

The capital region is pretty much a city-state, and the rest of Russia acts as a colonial territory.

View attachment 845548

In Russia, most of the country is wooden sticks except for Moscow





How countries die?

Really, look no further than Iraq.

It's supposedly a functioning state, but de-facto it's anything, but a state.

I really believe USA tried, and tried really hard to preserve Iraq's statehood, but in the end "the medical science can transplant a heart today, but brain death is still irreversible"

Tsar Bomba 50, 100 and more Megaton.. effects on different cities from Google Earth​

Every major power is aware of the response though..




The SARMAT/SATAN II have warheads capable of doing factional bombing.. Putin said that was the answer to Global Prompt Strike - an American system of rapid fatal strikes that smashes one third of all Russia's nuclear forces in just 55 minutes. And for Russia to kneel down like that and say that it no longer has the strength to strike back..


The “Fractional Orbital Bombardment System” or FOBS.. to deliver thermonuclear bombs via a low-trajectory, low-visibility route.

Both superpowers contemplated the deployment of nuclear weapons in space. However, Moscow did more than contemplate. During the 1960s, the USSR had an operational system ready to go into orbit to attack the United States.

This weapon was a combined low-flying missile and nuclear warhead. It was designed to take off from the Soviet Union and de-orbit for an attack. Most importantly, it would not fly over the Arctic to reach US territory. It would, rather, traverse southern polar areas and reach the US via the “backdoor.”

The superpower space competition heated up with the Soviet Union’s successful Oct. 4, 1957, launch of Sputnik. In those days, the mere act of putting an object into orbit was a major achievement. It didn’t take very long for both sides to start worrying about missiles equipped with doomsday payloads.

For several years afterward, Moscow had the lead. Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev boasted of his country’s superiority in space. On Aug. 9, 1961, Khrushchev bragged, “You [the Americans] do not have 50- or 100-megaton bombs; we have bombs more powerful than 100 megatons. We placed [cosmonauts] in space, and we can replace them with other loads that can be directed to any place on Earth.”

No one had any doubt that the Kremlin leader was talking about nuclear weapons.

In the ensuing years, both the US and USSR spent considerable energy monitoring the nuclear capabilities of the other. To detect incoming Soviet ICBMs, the US developed both ground- and space-based early warning systems.

FOBS certainly was not a precision weapon. Its circular error probable (the radius of a circle within which at least 50 percent of the warheads would be expected to hit) was more than three miles. Therefore, FOBS wouldn’t be used to destroy hardened ICBM silos or other protected sites requiring a direct hit.

Instead, US strategic planners and policy-makers thought FOBS would be used as a pathfinder. The system could be used to take out numerous command and control centers around Washington, D.C.—the White House, Pentagon, and so forth.

The idea was that effective use of FOBS might well rob the US of its capacity to carry out a launch-under-attack counter-strike which would be possible if a Soviet attack were detected soon enough.

The FOBS threat didn’t last long. Soon, Soviet designers were developing advanced submarine-launched ballistic missiles to equip its undersea vessels. SLBMs emerged as an even stealthier way to launch a disarming strike on the United States.


 
Last edited:

TruthSeeker

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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 19​

May 19, 2022 - Press ISW
ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20%20%20NAME_ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20NAME%20CMYK_421.png

Download the PDF

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan
May 19, 5:30 pm ET
Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Oblast on May 19. The Ukrainian General Staff said that 260 servicemen withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis arrived to replace the significant combat losses that the 107th Motorized Rifle Battalion has taken approximately 20 km southwest of Donetsk City.[1] The Ukrainian Military Directorate (GUR) intercepted a Russian serviceman’s call suggesting that some of the 400 servicemen from the Kharkiv City axis who had arrived elsewhere in Donbas were shocked by the intensity of the fighting there compared with what they had experienced in Kharkiv Oblast.[2]
Russian forces are continuing to suffer shortages of reserve manpower, causing the Russian military command to consolidate depleted battalion tactical groups (BTGs). An unnamed US defense official reported that Russian forces still have 106 BTGs operating in Ukraine but had to disband and combine some to compensate for losses.[3] Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov reported that Russian forces are combining units of the Pacific and Northern Fleets at the permanent locations of the 40th Separate Marine Brigade and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, respectively.[4] Gromov added that Russian forces are training servicemen in Krasnodar Krai to replenish units of the 49th Combined Arms Army and are trying to restore combat power of Russian units withdrawn from the battlefront in occupied Crimea.
Unknown Russian perpetrators conducted a series of Molotov cocktail attacks on Russian military commissariats throughout the country in May, likely in protest of covert mobilization. Russian media and local Telegram channels reported deliberate acts of arson against military commissariats in three Moscow Oblast settlements—Omsk, Volgograd, Ryazan Oblast, and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District—between May 4 and May 18.[5] Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov said that there were at least 12 cases of deliberate arson against military commissariats in total and five last week.[6] Russian officials caught two 16-year-olds in the act in one Moscow Oblast settlement, which suggests that Russian citizens are likely responsible for the attacks on military commissariats.[7]
Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces are intensifying operations to advance north and west of Popasna in preparation for an offensive toward Severodonetsk.
  • Russian and proxy authorities in Mariupol are struggling to establish coherent administrative control of the city.
  • Russian forces reportedly attempted to regain control of the settlements they lost during the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City.
  • Russian forces are bolstering their naval presence around Snake Island to fortify their grouping on the island.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time. We have stopped coverage of supporting effort 4, “Sumy and northeastern Ukraine,” because it is no longer an active effort.

  • Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
  • Subordinate main effort- Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
  • Supporting effort 1—Mariupol;
  • Supporting effort 2—Kharkiv City;
  • Supporting effort 3—Southern axis.
Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to resume offensive operations southwest of Izyum and did not advance in the Slovyansk or Lyman directions on May 19.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces suffered significant losses and retreated after a failed assault on Velyka Komyshuvakha approximately 23 km southwest of Izyum.[9] Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov said that Russian forces are resuming the Slovyansk offensive despite the loss of offensive capabilities.[10] Ukrainian artillery struck Russian electronic warfare (EW) equipment 7 km from Izyum on May 18.[11]
Russian forces intensified efforts to advance north and west of Popasna in preparation for the Battle of Severodonetsk. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces conducted several unsuccessful assaults in settlements leading to the Lysychansk and Bahmut highways near Popasna.[12] The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) claimed to have encircled Ukrainian troops in Zolote and Hirske, approximately 12 and 14 km northeast of Popasna, respectively.[13] ISW cannot independently confirm this LNR claim. Russian forces also attempted to break Ukrainian defenses west and east of Avdiivka without any success and maintained heavy shelling in the area.[14]
Russian troops have begun operating at a company scale rather than at the level of a BTG to focus on seizing specific villages in Donbas, according to US officials.[15] An unnamed US defense official also noted that Russian forces are still facing challenges in coordinating communication between commanders and synchronizing artillery fire in supporting ground assaults.[16] ISW previously reported that some Russian military bloggers criticized the Russian reconnaissance-strike complex due to its excessively centralized approval system for artillery fire.[17] A pro-Russian military Telegram channel criticized the current Russian strategy, claiming that Russian forces are hitting a “strategic dead end” and are suffering significant losses trying to slowly capture small villages in different directions.[18]

Supporting Effort #1—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders)
Russian and proxy occupation authorities in Mariupol reportedly struggled to establish coherent administrative control of the city on May 19. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andyrushchenko claimed that authorities in Mariupol who are collaborating with Russian occupiers do not report to the leadership of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and instead are being guided by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). [19] Andryushchenko additionally stated that the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) will become the only “independent” political organ of Russia due to the way DNR officials are imposing their occupational agendas on Mariupol.[20] Andryushchenko noted that Head of the DNR Denis Pushilin has commanded elements of the police corps currently stationed in Mariupol to move to other areas in Donetsk to respond to riots caused by “an internal struggle of political clans.”[21] While ISW cannot independently confirm Andryushchenko’s claims, they are consistent with the overall lack of coherency in the implementation of occupation agendas by Russian and DNR authorities alike.
Factional infighting between proxy authorities in Mariupol is likely being exacerbated by the ongoing evacuation of Ukrainian defenders from the Azovstal Steel Plant. Pro-Russian Telegram channels complained that Russian forces are removing wounded Russian servicemen from hospitals in the DNR to treat wounded Ukrainian soldiers who were recently evacuated from Azovstal.[22] If confirmed, these reports indicate a continued lack of consistency in the way Russian and proxy authorities are handling the evacuation of Ukrainian forces from Azovstal and the overall capture of Mariupol.

Supporting Effort #2—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces focused on maintaining their positions north of Kharkiv City to prevent further Ukrainian advances on May 19.[23] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops conducted unspecified and unsuccessful counterattacks in an attempt to restore lost positions around Kharkiv City.[24] Deputy Chief of the Main Operations Department of the Ukrainian General Staff Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov reported that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast has liberated 23 settlements since May 5, but did not name the settlements.[25] Russian troops continued to conduct artillery attacks on Ukrainian positions and suburban settlements around Kharkiv City.[26]

Supporting Effort #3—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances on the southern axis and shelled along the frontline on May 19.[27] Russian forces conducted artillery attacks against Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.[28] Unidentified partisans reportedly blew up a Russian armored train in Melitopol and damaged two railway tracks and a locomotive with ten fuel tanks.[29] Russian forces are continuing to fortify their grouping on Snake Island with two warship detachments and cruise missiles.[30] The situation in Transnistria remains unchanged.

Immediate items to watch
  • Russian forces will likely complete their withdrawal from the vicinity of Kharkiv City but attempt to hold a line west of Vovchansk to defend their GLOCs from Belgorod to Izyum. It is unclear if they will succeed.
  • The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at least from the south, possibly by focusing on cutting off the last highway connecting Severodonetsk-Lysychansk with the rest of Ukraine.
 

Oldman1

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It is not workable because there would be no agreement on #Donbas. Zelensky/Ukraine refused to implement Minsk II agreement that gave autonomy to the Russian-speaking East. Instead, they opted for a military solution and did everything they could to subdue these communities. This is what triggered Russia's entry into the war.

Second, allowing Ukraine to enter EU means they'll be part of the collective EU security - meaning any conflict between Ukraine and Russia would be one that is between Russia and the whole of EU that will also bring direct NATO's involvement. The "Neutral" status mentioned in that proposal is just a lip service.

On Crimea, I doubt Russia is willing to renegotiate on this important island.

To sum it up, that is not a workable solution. Any plan that doesn't recognize the independence of Russian-speaking East in Ukraine (or aka #Donbas) is dead on arrival.
Yeah wouldn't work since Russia still wants to landlock Ukraine by taking Odessa as well, not to mention Kharkiv which they are still trying right now. Ukrainians won't allow that.
 

The SC

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Sweden's Prime Minister announces, in the presence of US President Joe Biden, that her country has submitted a formal application to join NATO after 200 years of military neutrality, in circumstances she described as "reminding us of the darkest times of Europe."



Just combine them for this purpose and context..
 
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Raffie

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Youre saying France will nuke Russia if Russia attackes Finland? What makes you believe the French are dumb?

If you wanna play the nuke game there is really one nation that has enough of them to destroy Russia, and that is The USA. Russia would of course retaliate and destroy USA too.
In fact Russia has enough nukes to totally destroy France and UK, which are the only nuclear powers in Europe. But neither of them have enoug nukes to destroy Russia completley.
Now I did some humour, let's speak more seriously :
ruSSian naZis threaten the whole EU with their crackers..
NATO is too pussy about nuclear sharing : there are only 100 outdated B61 gravity bombs. Thanks to Vladolf Putler, EU bought weapons for the 1st time... Why stopping with these?
Time for an EU nuclear sharing starting with 500 ASMPA-R

31at.jpg

It'd only cost €9 billions, the EU can absolutely pay for these. The ASMPA-R is very nice, it's a bit like the P-800 Oniks in performances except it's 300 kilotons instead of 200kt and it weights 900kg instead of 2500, so any tactical aircraft can carry several, moreover, MBDA can make a conventional version too...
500 would just be a start. These would be mainly deployed at EU borders with "unfriendly" countries, e.g. in Cyprus, Greece, Baltic states, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Bulgaria, Ukraine but other countries can have nukes too, then apply a double key system, and, let's suppose Putler deploys his turds in Kaliningrad or his orcs at the border of an EU state, we release the keys to those concerned :)

I also advocate the EU to enforce a 2% of GDP military spending for all member states, at the same time, I also advocate that the difference between actual budgets and the 2% goes to the EU in order to purchase EU-made gear for everybody, especially those not able to afford on their own.
This would mean a cumulated budget of about $360 billions with about $120-140bn going to the EU...
For example, we have areas with some gaps in combat aircraft, especially at our marches with Mordor or Isengard
ot98.jpg

Therefore, EU should consider the purchase of 60 Rafale squadrons and 60 Gripen squadrons, with at least the M88 in 100kN non-afterburner version for Rafale. I think that a "rafalized" version of Gripen-F would be perfect: the room for the 2nd seat would allow Rafale's full combat systems, the M88 is so small that it will allow to stuff at least a ton of additional internal fuel. Safran says they can deliver a 115kN afterburner version into 18 months, here we have the replacement for the F-16s/Mirage-2000...
I also want such kind of racks for Meteor/MICA-NG
k5eg.jpg

So any weapon station can carry either 1 or 2 Meteor/MICA-NG on each side and 3 additional under a TER.
This would allow a Rafale-C/B to carry up to 39 Meteors and 9 MICA-NG at once, and there should be enough to wipe out a huge coalition of the 10 biggest non-EU air forces in a single sweep :lol:
We surely can modify the ASMPA-R as a carrier for MICA-IR or MICA-NG/IR, maybe Meteor so it can engage tankers, AWACS, bombers at insane distances at the contrary, we should also consider some super cheap stuff that can be carried in huge numbers to deal with drone swarms.

Then, it seems that we're not taken seriously so... The MdCN warhead can accommodate 1 megaton, the SCALP-EG up to 1.8 megaton, let's have 500 of each...
We're also lacking submarines... A Triomphant-class costs €3.1bn
Let's order 10, so there will be 14 in the EU => 2240 MIRVs in 224 M51.3 SLBMs
The M51 SLBM is of 2.3m diameter. the MdCN can be launched from submarines in a cannister fitting in standard 533mm torpedo tube... Therefore, 13 of these should be able to fit instead of a M51.3... We should consider also 10 Triomphant-class SSGNs.
Then, thanks to the new generation of Siemens nuclear turbines, you get 60% efficiency instead of 35%... This means that a Scorpène https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorpène-class_submarine
would only need a small 10MWth reactor to pack the same horsepower and 20MWth to double this... And the cost per ship shouldn't exceed €500M, moreover, with no need for fuel, it must be feasible to have more than 18 torpedoes/ASM/cruise missiles onboard...
Adding 60 of these to EU fleets should be OK...

When it comes to air defences, the SAMP/T-NG is better than S-300/400/500, Patriot and THAAD while Israeli Arrow-3 is better than RIM-161D block.II or A235, moreover, block.2 is designed to deal with things like the Avantgard MARV, Kh-47, Zirkon, etc, while even "old" Asters can deal with a Mach3 Oniks/Brahmos even at 6ft altitude with a 98.5% kill ratio for a single interceptor... And if Israel needed Boeing to fund Arrow-3 so they can't sell without US approval, my 2cts Arrow-4 can be made with Arianespace/EU. I bet that some booster coming from Ariane would allow mid-course interception with much better success than the GMD... IMHO, considering IAI prices and reusing some old Ariane designs, we surely can pack 4 interceptors for any Russian, Chinese, NoKo ICBM/SLBM/IRBM, we also need something to shoot down satellites even in MEO...

OK, Vladolf Putler wants to do some nuclear sabre-rattling? Uncle-Xi is into a freaking arms buildup? Let's start a little arms race... We may even do stuff the Yankees wouldn't, e.g. selling ASMPA-R in both nuclear and conventional versions and Rafale to Taiwan so they have something allowing them to sink anything between SoKo and Singapore... 200 Rafales are technically able to carry up to 7800 Meteors in a heavy air superiority config, they can operate from small roads, let's make Taiwan having PRC by the b*lls

Zelenskiy is right : democracy shall not be less armed than tyranny... The EU has played it too nice, thanks to utopists like Merkel, Schroeder, etc... Russia has switched to Nazism into 3 months and dares to threaten EU countries... alright, Putin is a 2nd rate Hitler, Xi sees himself as an Hideki x Stalin and ErdoGollum is acting like Mussolini...
And make no mistakes, I'm not against NATO but if Gollum doesn't goes in June, I think we should consider suspending Turkey until it's a democracy again and in order to introduce Finland, Sweden and until Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Cyprus join too. I think that we're too many to allow a veto from a single country, it should be upgraded to 3 and moreover, the center of gravity should shift to Europe, let's say around Strasbourg, just at the German/French border...

I think that we should allow a single embassy in Europe to some entities like Russia, PRC, USA and they should only be allowed to interact with the EU, not with member-states.

I think some would hate such a program... And considering who they are, it'd be the best reason to put something like that in place.
 

wahhab0202

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Now I did some humour, let's speak more seriously :
ruSSian naZis threaten the whole EU with their crackers..
NATO is too pussy about nuclear sharing : there are only 100 outdated B61 gravity bombs. Thanks to Vladolf Putler, EU bought weapons for the 1st time... Why stopping with these?
Time for an EU nuclear sharing starting with 500 ASMPA-R

31at.jpg

It'd only cost €9 billions, the EU can absolutely pay for these. The ASMPA-R is very nice, it's a bit like the P-800 Oniks in performances except it's 300 kilotons instead of 200kt and it weights 900kg instead of 2500, so any tactical aircraft can carry several, moreover, MBDA can make a conventional version too...
500 would just be a start. These would be mainly deployed at EU borders with "unfriendly" countries, e.g. in Cyprus, Greece, Baltic states, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Bulgaria, Ukraine but other countries can have nukes too, then apply a double key system, and, let's suppose Putler deploys his turds in Kaliningrad or his orcs at the border of an EU state, we release the keys to those concerned :)

I also advocate the EU to enforce a 2% of GDP military spending for all member states, at the same time, I also advocate that the difference between actual budgets and the 2% goes to the EU in order to purchase EU-made gear for everybody, especially those not able to afford on their own.
This would mean a cumulated budget of about $360 billions with about $120-140bn going to the EU...
For example, we have areas with some gaps in combat aircraft, especially at our marches with Mordor or Isengard
ot98.jpg

Therefore, EU should consider the purchase of 60 Rafale squadrons and 60 Gripen squadrons, with at least the M88 in 100kN non-afterburner version for Rafale. I think that a "rafalized" version of Gripen-F would be perfect: the room for the 2nd seat would allow Rafale's full combat systems, the M88 is so small that it will allow to stuff at least a ton of additional internal fuel. Safran says they can deliver a 115kN afterburner version into 18 months, here we have the replacement for the F-16s/Mirage-2000...
I also want such kind of racks for Meteor/MICA-NG
k5eg.jpg

So any weapon station can carry either 1 or 2 Meteor/MICA-NG on each side and 3 additional under a TER.
This would allow a Rafale-C/B to carry up to 39 Meteors and 9 MICA-NG at once, and there should be enough to wipe out a huge coalition of the 10 biggest non-EU air forces in a single sweep :lol:
We surely can modify the ASMPA-R as a carrier for MICA-IR or MICA-NG/IR, maybe Meteor so it can engage tankers, AWACS, bombers at insane distances at the contrary, we should also consider some super cheap stuff that can be carried in huge numbers to deal with drone swarms.

Then, it seems that we're not taken seriously so... The MdCN warhead can accommodate 1 megaton, the SCALP-EG up to 1.8 megaton, let's have 500 of each...
We're also lacking submarines... A Triomphant-class costs €3.1bn
Let's order 10, so there will be 14 in the EU => 2240 MIRVs in 224 M51.3 SLBMs
The M51 SLBM is of 2.3m diameter. the MdCN can be launched from submarines in a cannister fitting in standard 533mm torpedo tube... Therefore, 13 of these should be able to fit instead of a M51.3... We should consider also 10 Triomphant-class SSGNs.
Then, thanks to the new generation of Siemens nuclear turbines, you get 60% efficiency instead of 35%... This means that a Scorpène https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scorpène-class_submarine
would only need a small 10MWth reactor to pack the same horsepower and 20MWth to double this... And the cost per ship shouldn't exceed €500M, moreover, with no need for fuel, it must be feasible to have more than 18 torpedoes/ASM/cruise missiles onboard...
Adding 60 of these to EU fleets should be OK...

When it comes to air defences, the SAMP/T-NG is better than S-300/400/500, Patriot and THAAD while Israeli Arrow-3 is better than RIM-161D block.II or A235, moreover, block.2 is designed to deal with things like the Avantgard MARV, Kh-47, Zirkon, etc, while even "old" Asters can deal with a Mach3 Oniks/Brahmos even at 6ft altitude with a 98.5% kill ratio for a single interceptor... And if Israel needed Boeing to fund Arrow-3 so they can't sell without US approval, my 2cts Arrow-4 can be made with Arianespace/EU. I bet that some booster coming from Ariane would allow mid-course interception with much better success than the GMD... IMHO, considering IAI prices and reusing some old Ariane designs, we surely can pack 4 interceptors for any Russian, Chinese, NoKo ICBM/SLBM/IRBM, we also need something to shoot down satellites even in MEO...

OK, Vladolf Putler wants to do some nuclear sabre-rattling? Uncle-Xi is into a freaking arms buildup? Let's start a little arms race... We may even do stuff the Yankees wouldn't, e.g. selling ASMPA-R in both nuclear and conventional versions and Rafale to Taiwan so they have something allowing them to sink anything between SoKo and Singapore... 200 Rafales are technically able to carry up to 7800 Meteors in a heavy air superiority config, they can operate from small roads, let's make Taiwan having PRC by the b*lls

Zelenskiy is right : democracy shall not be less armed than tyranny... The EU has played it too nice, thanks to utopists like Merkel, Schroeder, etc... Russia has switched to Nazism into 3 months and dares to threaten EU countries... alright, Putin is a 2nd rate Hitler, Xi sees himself as an Hideki x Stalin and ErdoGollum is acting like Mussolini...
And make no mistakes, I'm not against NATO but if Gollum doesn't goes in June, I think we should consider suspending Turkey until it's a democracy again and in order to introduce Finland, Sweden and until Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Cyprus join too. I think that we're too many to allow a veto from a single country, it should be upgraded to 3 and moreover, the center of gravity should shift to Europe, let's say around Strasbourg, just at the German/French border...

I think that we should allow a single embassy in Europe to some entities like Russia, PRC, USA and they should only be allowed to interact with the EU, not with member-states.

I think some would hate such a program... And considering who they are, it'd be the best reason to put something like that in place.
You probably right on all the things you mentioned on the above post. But calling Russian nukes as fire cracker??? A few of them could wipe whole western Europe, and Russia doesn't posses a few but bunch.

The Russians would have to lift the blockade.
Which blockade? Why would they have to? Russia has many ports for their wheat shipment to reach Africa, middle east and south east Asia.
 
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Hassan Al-Somal

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RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 19​

May 19, 2022 - Press ISW
ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20%20%20NAME_ISW%20LOGO%20FINAL%20ACRONYM%20NAME%20CMYK_421.png

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Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan
May 19, 5:30 pm ET
Ukrainian military officials reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis have redeployed to western Donetsk Oblast on May 19. The Ukrainian General Staff said that 260 servicemen withdrawn from the Kharkiv City axis arrived to replace the significant combat losses that the 107th Motorized Rifle Battalion has taken approximately 20 km southwest of Donetsk City.[1] The Ukrainian Military Directorate (GUR) intercepted a Russian serviceman’s call suggesting that some of the 400 servicemen from the Kharkiv City axis who had arrived elsewhere in Donbas were shocked by the intensity of the fighting there compared with what they had experienced in Kharkiv Oblast.[2]
Russian forces are continuing to suffer shortages of reserve manpower, causing the Russian military command to consolidate depleted battalion tactical groups (BTGs). An unnamed US defense official reported that Russian forces still have 106 BTGs operating in Ukraine but had to disband and combine some to compensate for losses.[3] Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov reported that Russian forces are combining units of the Pacific and Northern Fleets at the permanent locations of the 40th Separate Marine Brigade and the 200th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, respectively.[4] Gromov added that Russian forces are training servicemen in Krasnodar Krai to replenish units of the 49th Combined Arms Army and are trying to restore combat power of Russian units withdrawn from the battlefront in occupied Crimea.
Unknown Russian perpetrators conducted a series of Molotov cocktail attacks on Russian military commissariats throughout the country in May, likely in protest of covert mobilization. Russian media and local Telegram channels reported deliberate acts of arson against military commissariats in three Moscow Oblast settlements—Omsk, Volgograd, Ryazan Oblast, and Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District—between May 4 and May 18.[5] Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov said that there were at least 12 cases of deliberate arson against military commissariats in total and five last week.[6] Russian officials caught two 16-year-olds in the act in one Moscow Oblast settlement, which suggests that Russian citizens are likely responsible for the attacks on military commissariats.[7]
Key Takeaways
  • Russian forces are intensifying operations to advance north and west of Popasna in preparation for an offensive toward Severodonetsk.
  • Russian and proxy authorities in Mariupol are struggling to establish coherent administrative control of the city.
  • Russian forces reportedly attempted to regain control of the settlements they lost during the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City.
  • Russian forces are bolstering their naval presence around Snake Island to fortify their grouping on the island.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because those activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time. We have stopped coverage of supporting effort 4, “Sumy and northeastern Ukraine,” because it is no longer an active effort.

  • Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
  • Subordinate main effort- Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
  • Supporting effort 1—Mariupol;
  • Supporting effort 2—Kharkiv City;
  • Supporting effort 3—Southern axis.
Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to resume offensive operations southwest of Izyum and did not advance in the Slovyansk or Lyman directions on May 19.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces suffered significant losses and retreated after a failed assault on Velyka Komyshuvakha approximately 23 km southwest of Izyum.[9] Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov said that Russian forces are resuming the Slovyansk offensive despite the loss of offensive capabilities.[10] Ukrainian artillery struck Russian electronic warfare (EW) equipment 7 km from Izyum on May 18.[11]
Russian forces intensified efforts to advance north and west of Popasna in preparation for the Battle of Severodonetsk. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces conducted several unsuccessful assaults in settlements leading to the Lysychansk and Bahmut highways near Popasna.[12] The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) claimed to have encircled Ukrainian troops in Zolote and Hirske, approximately 12 and 14 km northeast of Popasna, respectively.[13] ISW cannot independently confirm this LNR claim. Russian forces also attempted to break Ukrainian defenses west and east of Avdiivka without any success and maintained heavy shelling in the area.[14]
Russian troops have begun operating at a company scale rather than at the level of a BTG to focus on seizing specific villages in Donbas, according to US officials.[15] An unnamed US defense official also noted that Russian forces are still facing challenges in coordinating communication between commanders and synchronizing artillery fire in supporting ground assaults.[16] ISW previously reported that some Russian military bloggers criticized the Russian reconnaissance-strike complex due to its excessively centralized approval system for artillery fire.[17] A pro-Russian military Telegram channel criticized the current Russian strategy, claiming that Russian forces are hitting a “strategic dead end” and are suffering significant losses trying to slowly capture small villages in different directions.[18]

Supporting Effort #1—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders)
Russian and proxy occupation authorities in Mariupol reportedly struggled to establish coherent administrative control of the city on May 19. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andyrushchenko claimed that authorities in Mariupol who are collaborating with Russian occupiers do not report to the leadership of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and instead are being guided by the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). [19] Andryushchenko additionally stated that the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) will become the only “independent” political organ of Russia due to the way DNR officials are imposing their occupational agendas on Mariupol.[20] Andryushchenko noted that Head of the DNR Denis Pushilin has commanded elements of the police corps currently stationed in Mariupol to move to other areas in Donetsk to respond to riots caused by “an internal struggle of political clans.”[21] While ISW cannot independently confirm Andryushchenko’s claims, they are consistent with the overall lack of coherency in the implementation of occupation agendas by Russian and DNR authorities alike.
Factional infighting between proxy authorities in Mariupol is likely being exacerbated by the ongoing evacuation of Ukrainian defenders from the Azovstal Steel Plant. Pro-Russian Telegram channels complained that Russian forces are removing wounded Russian servicemen from hospitals in the DNR to treat wounded Ukrainian soldiers who were recently evacuated from Azovstal.[22] If confirmed, these reports indicate a continued lack of consistency in the way Russian and proxy authorities are handling the evacuation of Ukrainian forces from Azovstal and the overall capture of Mariupol.

Supporting Effort #2—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces focused on maintaining their positions north of Kharkiv City to prevent further Ukrainian advances on May 19.[23] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops conducted unspecified and unsuccessful counterattacks in an attempt to restore lost positions around Kharkiv City.[24] Deputy Chief of the Main Operations Department of the Ukrainian General Staff Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov reported that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in northern Kharkiv Oblast has liberated 23 settlements since May 5, but did not name the settlements.[25] Russian troops continued to conduct artillery attacks on Ukrainian positions and suburban settlements around Kharkiv City.[26]

Supporting Effort #3—Southern Axis (Objective: Defend Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances on the southern axis and shelled along the frontline on May 19.[27] Russian forces conducted artillery attacks against Kherson, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv Oblasts.[28] Unidentified partisans reportedly blew up a Russian armored train in Melitopol and damaged two railway tracks and a locomotive with ten fuel tanks.[29] Russian forces are continuing to fortify their grouping on Snake Island with two warship detachments and cruise missiles.[30] The situation in Transnistria remains unchanged.

Immediate items to watch
  • Russian forces will likely complete their withdrawal from the vicinity of Kharkiv City but attempt to hold a line west of Vovchansk to defend their GLOCs from Belgorod to Izyum. It is unclear if they will succeed.
  • The Russians will continue efforts to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at least from the south, possibly by focusing on cutting off the last highway connecting Severodonetsk-Lysychansk with the rest of Ukraine.


This is all you need to know about the ISW (Institute for the Study of War) 👇 These Neo-conservatives are leading the regime change campaign against Russia.

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