The SC
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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2
- Thread starter waz
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Viet
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If anything Putin will order the offensive in spring next year when the 300,000 mobis are trained, armed and ready. At best Putin hopes his troops will survive Ukraine onslaughts thru winter.
As for Musk, as engineer I admire his engineering skills and richness however his “peace” plan is retarded. Ukraine is right when they say him to shut up.
Russian troop movements are such a total giveaway:
I've been tracking RU mobo troops over last weeks. They are not even trying to hide them.
Google gives off bi-hourly updates, and they match metadata in leaked phone videos 1-to-1 pretty much.
They haven't sent much of new troops to Ukraine. Rather they keep them in the middle of nowhere near UA border, most in Bilhorod.
UA sources tell of 20-40k of them along the border
I've been tracking RU mobo troops over last weeks. They are not even trying to hide them.
Google gives off bi-hourly updates, and they match metadata in leaked phone videos 1-to-1 pretty much.
They haven't sent much of new troops to Ukraine. Rather they keep them in the middle of nowhere near UA border, most in Bilhorod.
UA sources tell of 20-40k of them along the border
alimobin memon
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The way Ukrainians are reporting and online reports are coming its either that everyone has wrong impression or russians are actually dumb which I would never believe that they are dumb. To me still russians real figures are hidden how many are actually inside ukraine. I claimed before and I claim now that russians are hiding something big making fool of everyone. Putins speech and yesterdays approval and final sign of annexation is propf that the russians are not afraid and yes not even trying hard cause they are confident about annexing them. Its not about who is right or wrong its just a view.
Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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alimobin memon
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Someone posted here a tweet claiming a huge blast through mine and now this says fab was used. Ofcourse mines with huge blasts is new thing
This one i guess.
Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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There isn't much fighting in the first year of the war. Starting in the second year there is more fighting.
The biggest discovery for me this week was finding out that RUAF are super-short of junior officers, despite them having tons of them on the paper.
The level of training of a russian lieutenant is comparable to UK specialist, AT MOST.
How does russian army produce its lieutenants? 1. Military academies; 2. Civilian universities, and colleges which teach military subjects.
Most people were going for the second, because it gives a civilian job. AND, apparently, a lot of russians were getting these courses to actually AVOID getting drafted, or to get easy service if they were to be drafted.
Basically 60%-70% of russian junior officers are civilians, who never did serve professionally, and only got to do real military duties for the first time in their lives this year.
Second, russians do automatic promotions up to a captain in some cases, which is crazy. This means that any of such paper lieutenants can go up in rank by just staying for a few years doing nothing after their draft.
Captain's training in RUAF mostly accents on non-combat related disciplines, because they assume that lieutenants were already taught basics when they were cadets. They learn stuff like paperwork, admin work, legal, doctrine, psych work, etc.
But RUAF also have very few majors, because they are reluctant to promote such low quality officers further, nor they know how to pick good ones from so many candidates. Ones chances to get to a major before 30 is near zero in russian army because there are gazillions of captains. Even in PLA, I know few 28-29 years old majors.
The root cause of all of this seem to be Russia's zeal to "professionalize" the military akin to NATOs armies, and prepare more personel to man complex equipment. And this apparently began back in the USSR, in its last years, when they admitted that NATO has unimaginable qualitative advantage, and that the USSR will soon loose Warsow Pact Countries as allies.
The level of training of a russian lieutenant is comparable to UK specialist, AT MOST.
How does russian army produce its lieutenants? 1. Military academies; 2. Civilian universities, and colleges which teach military subjects.
Most people were going for the second, because it gives a civilian job. AND, apparently, a lot of russians were getting these courses to actually AVOID getting drafted, or to get easy service if they were to be drafted.
Basically 60%-70% of russian junior officers are civilians, who never did serve professionally, and only got to do real military duties for the first time in their lives this year.
Second, russians do automatic promotions up to a captain in some cases, which is crazy. This means that any of such paper lieutenants can go up in rank by just staying for a few years doing nothing after their draft.
Captain's training in RUAF mostly accents on non-combat related disciplines, because they assume that lieutenants were already taught basics when they were cadets. They learn stuff like paperwork, admin work, legal, doctrine, psych work, etc.
But RUAF also have very few majors, because they are reluctant to promote such low quality officers further, nor they know how to pick good ones from so many candidates. Ones chances to get to a major before 30 is near zero in russian army because there are gazillions of captains. Even in PLA, I know few 28-29 years old majors.
The root cause of all of this seem to be Russia's zeal to "professionalize" the military akin to NATOs armies, and prepare more personel to man complex equipment. And this apparently began back in the USSR, in its last years, when they admitted that NATO has unimaginable qualitative advantage, and that the USSR will soon loose Warsow Pact Countries as allies.
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The SC
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Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen
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For Ukraine, gaining territory was relatively easy after they exhausted RUAF offensive potential.
I would argue, their overall strategic priority after March until Kharkiv offensive was to deny RU easy attack, and manoeuvre opportunities, rather than counterattack above all.
Now russians have spread themselves wide, because they themselves wanted to go on the defensive.... and here UA turned the table by throwing 10 brigades at a time enfilading thin defensive lines.
Answering your question now, the battle now will go for the next 10% of the territory, and after that, I bet, Kremlin will lose interest fighting for puny 5%, since Kremlin can't brag with a square face about wasting the entirety of world's №2 military for puny 30000 square kilometres of land.
The entirety of Khesanh province will almost certainly be going back to UA until the end of this month. AFU will also almost certainly be able to push past Krasna river, and reach Bila before the winter. That will be around another ~5%.
If UA will be able to herd RUAF into around 12% of remaining occupied territory, their advantage in long range fires will start to snowball.
Just 100-200 thousand untrained troops without tanks, and artillery would have zero chances to change the situation. It will be a slaughterhouse, especially if they will try to push conscripts into open fields in the south.
The best Russia can do is to stuff urban parts of Donetsk, and Luhansk with those new conscripts, and bid for time. Any other attempt at "Zerg Rush" is already doomed since AFU have already cleared the only remaining major area in the country where vehicles are at disadvantage. After UA will retake Starobilsk, RU will have close to none opportunities to employ infantry in the field.
If russian conscripts were ready just 2 months earlier, they could've bid for holding the Severo — Luhansk line, but now UA will have easy times cutting their supply lines in towns long the Siverskyi Donets river.
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