February 2, 2023
Russian expert Alexander Nazarov: Why is Putin talking about the pre-emptive Russian nuclear strike?
Why is Putin talking about the pre-emptive Russian nuclear strike?
The West has recently and rapidly increased the volume and range of weapons supplied to the Zelensky regime, demonstrating its readiness for almost unlimited escalation, and its readiness to advance Russia's defeat in Ukraine by any means.
On the other hand, the Russian red lines were defined rather vaguely, without much urgency, and for that reason. Given the unified West's superiority in conventional weapons, any Russian response by conventional means would mean an invitation to the West to use this superiority against Russia, meaning that the situation for Russia will get worse. Only the options for using nuclear weapons against the West (and not against Ukraine) lead to significant negative consequences for it, perhaps more dangerous than the consequences for Russia, while the remaining options are more destructive for Russia than for the West.
Therefore, I believe that the current trajectories lead us almost inevitably to an all-out nuclear war between Russia and the West.
Why, then, will this war be nuclear and comprehensive from the first seconds? Will that really happen?
Everything becomes clear if we understand the causes and goals of this conflict between Russia and the West.
Russia first, then China, developed and acquired hypersonic missiles that cannot be intercepted, while the last few tests of American hypersonic weapons succeeded, and it is likely that we expect these missiles to enter service this year or next, and that the United States of America will possess hypersonic missiles in sufficient numbers in 2025, or at the latest in 2026.
The Anglo-Saxons have proven over and over in their history that they do not shy away from genocide in order to maintain their dominance and prosperity. Indeed, at the end of World War II, when the Soviet Union, Britain and the United States of America were still allies, the Anglo-Saxons began to develop plans for an attack on the Soviet Union, including with the use of nuclear weapons (British Operation "Unthinkable", American Operation "Drop-shot", while the United States of America used nuclear weapons against the civilian population of Japan, in a situation where Japan was already losing the war, and there was no threat to the United States of America. That is, to suspect that the Anglo-Saxons would be willing to use nuclear weapons against us or you in any situation at all is foolish and suicidal, for them the word "humanity" is an empty phrase when it comes to their well-being.
It should be noted here that the United States of America declares openly in its national security strategy its readiness to use nuclear weapons first, not only in response to an existential threat, but also in order to influence the decision-making processes in unfriendly countries.
That is, the current war that the West is waging is for the sake of destroying Russia. This is not a sudden or accidental change in the consciousness of Western elites and a large part of the population. On the contrary, the mood of hostility to Russia and the desire to destroy it has always prevailed as an innate component of the West for centuries. Only occasionally, for several decades after one of its defeats against Russia, did the West have to hide those feelings.
The American way of identifying a threat requires the motive and capability to take hostile action, and soon the United States will have the motive and capability.
Since with the advent of hypersonic weapons in the United States of America, the American pre-emptive nuclear attack against Russia will become a real threat and, in my opinion, is inevitable. The only additional requirement required is to place the missiles close to Russian decision-making centers, so that a pre-emptive “preventive” strike would prevent a Russian response momentarily, or severely reduce it.
Vladimir Putin has repeatedly tried to negotiate compromises with the West, including Russia's willingness to accept Ukraine's neutral status, and the Russian president has repeatedly stressed that Russia does not brandish nuclear weapons, and acts responsibly.
Last December, Putin made the surprising declaration that if Russia did not use its nuclear weapons first, it certainly could not use them second. Then he explained that the American doctrine of a preemptive nuclear strike in the current circumstances also forces Russia to consider the possibility of applying such a doctrine, because after the American preemptive strike, Russia will not have an opportunity to respond.
I wouldn't call Putin's warning last, but it is a clear signal to the West about how Russia sees the future development of events. Let me remind you that at the end of last January, the Russian frigate Admiral Gorshkov, equipped with Zircon hypersonic missiles, conducted maneuvers in the western part of the Atlantic Ocean at a distance of one shot from the USA.
And all these talks would have been theoretical had the Russian ultimatum in December 2021 not been followed by the start of Russia's own military operation in Ukraine.
I would even go on to say that the parties now have a maximum of two years to talk. Then, mutual mistrust and growing anti-Russian hysteria in the West will make a pre-emptive strike by one side almost inevitable. At the same time, not only the hypothetical defeat of Russia in Ukraine may lead to this, but even the preservation of the existing areas of control or the limited successes of Russia in Ukraine may push towards this scenario.
Thus, it seems to me that the success of the expected Russian attack this year, and the Western response to it, and its willingness to concede, will be our only chance to even begin to move away from the nuclear scenario. At the same time, given the belligerent statements of Western leaders, first and foremost Poland, I estimate that this chance is slim. So far, there is no reason to expect de-escalation from the West.
Indeed, the increase in Western supplies of tanks, planes, and long-range missiles indicates the West's willingness to increase escalation, and it is likely that Russian successes will lead to the entry of Polish and perhaps other Western forces into Ukraine.
It is therefore unlikely that the war will end this year, but, if it does not end within the next two years with complete victory for Russia and the fulfillment of the Russian ultimatum, I have already described my predictions for the course of events.
Political analyst/ Alexander Nazarov