• Saturday, August 15, 2020

Russia Rallying Pakistan, China & Iran To Stop ISIS in Afghanistan

Discussion in 'Strategic & Foreign Affairs' started by Asfandyar Bhittani, Jan 24, 2017.

  1. Asfandyar Bhittani

    Asfandyar Bhittani PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    December 2016 has been eventful month for Afghanistan war. For the first time ever Russia & Iran has not only publicly admitted their contacts with Taliban but also defended its stance on the issue.


    The recent scandals started when top US general, commander of Resolute Support Mission & U.S. Forces Afghanistan Gen John William Nicholson, Jr, claimed “Russia has overtly lent legitimacy to the Taliban” & “Shifting to Iran, you have a similar situation. There have been linkages between the Iranians and the Taliban”
    Russian Ministry of foreign affairs responded on 7 December with “Talks are the only way to restore peace in Afghanistan, and they must involve the Taliban as a member of the political process”. Iran than admitted it invited Taliban leaders, In mid-December, to “Islamic unity summit” in Tehran. Moscow on December 27, hosted a China Pakistan Russia trilateral meeting On Afghanistan & especially IS khorasan (ISIS in Afghanistan). Russia is rallying global & regional powers over ISIS.

    Genesis Of IS Khorasan (ISK)

    [​IMG]
    ISIS Khorasan training Camp In Afghanistan
    The first signs of ISK formation appeared in March 2014. Like In Iraq & Syria, it was formed zby Al Qaeda dissidents. Dissidents like Abu Ubaydah al Lubnani, Abdul Aziz (Brother of Sheikh Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi) among seven others. But this went ignored as ISK controlled neither territory nor had any manpower to do so. And ironically neither was it officially confirmed by ISIS.


    This first major boost of manpower came after Pakistani offensive Zarb-e-azb, which dislodged TTP in FATA & especially in Waziristan. ISK absorbed TTP fighters in retreat who felt betrayed by Afghan Taliban for not coming to their aid, &/or were disappointed in TTP leader Fazlullah’s leadership.

    In October 2014, 4 months after the start of Zarb-e-azb, a big chunk of TTP leadership & their fighters declared allegiance to ISIS. Leaders like Hafiz Khan Saeed (TTP commander in Orakzai who was contestant for TTP leadership along Fazlullah), Shahidullah Shahid (TTP main spokesperson), Hafiz Quran Daulat, Gul Zaman, Mufti Hassan & Khalid Mansoor, TTP chiefs for Kurram agency, Khyber agency, Peshawar & Hangu district respectively. In one week, Half of TTP leadership in Pakistani tribal areas now were in ISK.

    In January 2015 this ISK leadership gave Baya to Baghdadi & infamous ISIS Spokesman al-Adnani confirmed ISK as ISIS’s Khoarsan branch and Hafiz Khan Saeed its leader.

    Threats posed by IS Khorasan

    Islamabad isn’t underestimating threat from ISK. ISK is almost entirely TTP which means it automatically has anti-Pakistan orientation. ISK is to allied Jamat-ul-ahrar (JA), JA has been the most deadly TTP branch and responsible for 2014 Wagah border bombing, March 2016 Gulshan-e-Iqbal bombing. Before the split with TTP, JA commander Omar Khalid Khorasani aka Abdul wali was also linked to the gruesome 2014 Army Public School Peshawar Attack.

    Apart from That ISK directly poses a security threat to Pakistan for it is based in South Nangarhar which borders Parachinar in Pakistan. Parachinar has a sizable population of Shia Muslims.

    As for Russia, it has fought ISIS in Syria & considers it a major threat. ISIS has more than 3000 Russians in its ranks who it fears will bring chaos upon return. Russia has the same concern about ISK who has many Tajik & Uzbeks in its ranks who can foment trouble in central Asia, Russia’s backyard. This fear is also shared by Tajikistan’s govt which prompted Russia to deploy more troops on Tajikistan-Afghanistan border.

    It would be unfair to say that ISK is Russia’s only concern in Afghanistan, as Russian Special Envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulaov, said in an interview “If we did something like that (land bases in Afghanistan) in Mexico, would it not be disturbing for America? Russia will never tolerate this”

    China fears Uighurs militants in ISIS’s ranks, but also ETIM fighting alongside Taliban in northern Afghanistan. Uighurs militants took part in battle of Kunduz (2015). Since then China has hosted Afghan Taliban delegation to discuss peace talks among other things.

    Iran too have similar legitimate fears. If ISK is allowed to grow further, its onslaught against Shia hazaras will trigger another refugee crisis for Iran. Other than that, having another terrorist group at its border wont sit well with Tehran.

    India on other hand doesn’t want anyone to view ISK as greater threat than Taliban as it is shielded by Pakistan acting as a buffer. On the contrary Indian companies have been caught supplying ISIS. And R&AWs contacts within former TTP leadership also saves Indian personnel from ISK’s brutality who have withstood barrage of airstrikes for two years.

    To curb this threat Iran, China & Russia has cosied up to Taliban. They feel Taliban is the only effective force in Afghanistan to tackle ISIS. Taliban chief Mansour was killed in Pakistan coming from Masshad, Iran. And now public admission of invitation to Taliban leaders further proves that Iran considers ISIS a more dangerous threat.

    China & Russia, permanent members of UNSC, now back taking Taliban name off the UN terror list.

    US & Kabul Reaction

    Both US & Kabul reaction to ISK & alliance against ISK has been discouraging. They have allowed ISK to exist in Nangarhar for more than two years. Afghan forces have failed to dislodge ISK & US doesn’t want to commit men. It has been hitting ISK with occasional airstrikes. When has drone strikes ever defeated militants without a simultaneous ground offensive? TTP was being hit by drones too & they only grew stronger, it was Zarb-e-azb that defeated it.
    If ISK is allowed to spread like ISIS, it will be almost undefeatable in Afghan terrain, as it is backed by greater cash reserves & propaganda infrastructure than Taliban.

    US Gen Nicholson called Russian initiative “undermining NATO’s effort” while Afghanistan expressed its “displeasure” over trilateral meeting. But It is the incompetence & half hearted efforts of Kabul & Washington that has forced the Anti ISK alliance into existence, who by defeating ISK & restarting peace talks, might finally bring an end to the longest war of this century.

    Author Asfandyar Bhittani
    https://frontierpakistani.wordpress...istan-china-iran-to-stop-isis-in-afghanistan/
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2017
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  2. Starlord

    Starlord ELITE MEMBER

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    Pakistan will be mostly effected country if ISIS get hold in Afghanistan , Pakistan need to have Armed Drones , Attack Helicopters and sealed the Border . we must have Quick response Forces deployed there with snipers and Tanks , we need to regulate Media on which content will be published and which will be banned , all madarsas and Masjid must be Registered , National Action plan must be more strict and hard , Govt's must ask Ullma to give Fatwa's against ISIS , anyone support or said anything in favor of ISIS must be sent to jail without bail for at least 6 months , Public Execution of ISIS fighters and terrorists , Iran and Pakistan make a Joint Force and Intelligence corporations to tackle in Afgan-Iran-Pakistan border , re-establish Connection with Afghan Taliban and help them to fight ISIS with full force , Stop Supporting US in fighting against Afghan Taliban .
     
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  3. Hassan Guy

    Hassan Guy SENIOR MEMBER

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    Hopefully we are prepared for the worst.
     
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  4. Path-Finder

    Path-Finder ELITE MEMBER

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    ISIS is game over and with obama gone i see Russia stepping up the drive against these savages. in syria gulf states were involved along with NATO, isis in afghanistan is completely a different game their backers are the ones who backed ttp and again this all happened when NATO was present in afghanistan!! who did the US bring into afghanistan? india under project 2015 Pakistan becomes syria. they were so confident that CIA wrote a plan and indians danced calling Pakistan a failed state which as it appeared was the case. second part of the plan was to take away the nuclear arsenal possessed by Pakistan in this time frame.

    It is history these things happened in the 13 years gone. so this isis thing I am not too bothered by because this is where covert ops come into play, isis will never invade Pakistan to hold territory, they will have some similar ttp style threats against personal but with ops happening their support is being killed or captured although punjab operation is must along with sindh operation.
     
  5. Kambojaric

    Kambojaric MODERATOR

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    Of course the Taliban will be contacted by all neighbouring countries as the Kabul government has proven to be incompetent in enforcing its writ throughout the country. Them and the Taliban are engaged in a stalemate and the more these two weaken each other, the stronger ISIS in the country will become. This is a nightmare scenario for all neighbouring countries which is why we should all stick together.
     
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  6. BHarwana

    BHarwana MODERATOR

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    I have only one question if any one with knowledge can answer me. How ISIS is able to relocate passing through the areas controlled by American forces?
     
  7. Asfandyar Bhittani

    Asfandyar Bhittani PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    They are insurgents they mix with the local population, plus US forces are mostly bunkered in their bases
     
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  8. BHarwana

    BHarwana MODERATOR

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    But ISIS travel in New Toyotas and every one knows that so how. Or those drones that USA has cannot spot the white Toyotas that ISIS has.
     
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  9. Asfandyar Bhittani

    Asfandyar Bhittani PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    When have drones ever worked without simultaneous ground op? Read the article again. ISK has been hit my drones. Plus do you think civilians drive Ferraris? Toyota pickups blends in perfectly.
     
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  10. jupiter2007

    jupiter2007 SENIOR MEMBER

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    USA gave them those white Toyotas.
     
  11. WaLeEdK2

    WaLeEdK2 SENIOR MEMBER

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    If we do go into Afghanistan it is the perfect opportunity to take out ttp strong holds there too and dismantle the entire group.
     
  12. BHarwana

    BHarwana MODERATOR

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    But they are white brand new Toyotas freshly imported from Japan or Dubai. like the one UN uses. They are easily spot able from a drone[​IMG]
     
  13. PakForce

    PakForce FULL MEMBER

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    I think this scare tactics to malign muslims.. we should be united. World hate us.