What's new

Russia-Pakistan gas pipeline feasible, Putin tells Shahbaz Sharif

FOOLS_NIGHTMARE

ELITE MEMBER
Sep 26, 2018
14,189
15
29,918
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom

Vladimir Putin says a gas pipeline between Pakistan and Russia is part of already existing infrastructure

1663244344952.png

In a major development, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday told Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif that the installation of a pipeline for the supply of gas to Pakistan from Moscow is possible.

The remarks came during a meeting between PM Shahbaz and Russian President Putin in Samarkand on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan.


During the meeting, matters of mutual interests, bilateral relations between the two countries, and other issues were discussed.

Putin also said that a gas pipeline between Pakistan and Russia was part of the already existing infrastructure.

PM Shahbaz Sharif lands in Uzbekistan

Earlier today, PM Shahbaz reached Uzbekistan on a two-day visit to attend the annual meeting of the SCO's Council of Heads of State (CHS).

The premier will attend the SCO summit scheduled to be held on September 15-16 at the invitation of Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The CHS is the highest forum at the SCO, which considers and defines the strategy, prospects and priorities of the organisation.

During the meeting, the SCO leaders will deliberate on important global and regional issues, including climate change, food security energy security, and sustainable supply chains.

They would also approve agreements and documents that would chart the future direction of cooperation among SCO member states.

Besides attending the summit, the prime minister would hold bilateral meetings with other participating leaders on the sidelines of the Council of Heads of State meeting.
 

AlKardai

FULL MEMBER
Mar 24, 2022
1,243
0
1,723
Country
United Kingdom
Location
United Kingdom

Vladimir Putin says a gas pipeline between Pakistan and Russia is part of already existing infrastructure

View attachment 879301
In a major development, Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday told Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif that the installation of a pipeline for the supply of gas to Pakistan from Moscow is possible.

The remarks came during a meeting between PM Shahbaz and Russian President Putin in Samarkand on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan.


During the meeting, matters of mutual interests, bilateral relations between the two countries, and other issues were discussed.

Putin also said that a gas pipeline between Pakistan and Russia was part of the already existing infrastructure.

PM Shahbaz Sharif lands in Uzbekistan

Earlier today, PM Shahbaz reached Uzbekistan on a two-day visit to attend the annual meeting of the SCO's Council of Heads of State (CHS).

The premier will attend the SCO summit scheduled to be held on September 15-16 at the invitation of Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The CHS is the highest forum at the SCO, which considers and defines the strategy, prospects and priorities of the organisation.

During the meeting, the SCO leaders will deliberate on important global and regional issues, including climate change, food security energy security, and sustainable supply chains.

They would also approve agreements and documents that would chart the future direction of cooperation among SCO member states.

Besides attending the summit, the prime minister would hold bilateral meetings with other participating leaders on the sidelines of the Council of Heads of State meeting.

Woah.
 

nahtanbob

ELITE MEMBER
Sep 24, 2018
10,777
-55
3,686
Country
United States
Location
United States
tiny details like which countries the pipeline is going and who is going to pay for it can be taken care of later :enjoy:
 

Sayfullah

SENIOR MEMBER
Sep 10, 2020
2,266
8
4,195
Country
Pakistan
Location
Canada
How so, if someone cares to explain?
I think it’s because Russian pipelines or Russian controlled pipelines already exist in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Only issue is Afghanistan but if pipeline isn’t built there then everywhere else already has existing gas pipelines in place.
Btw this is just my opinion and might be wrong but I think that’s the case. Someone could search up and confirm if they want.
 

VCheng

ELITE MEMBER
Sep 29, 2010
45,983
57
39,052
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
I think it’s because Russian pipelines or Russian controlled pipelines already exist in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Only issue is Afghanistan but if pipeline isn’t built there then everywhere else already has existing gas pipelines in place.
Btw this is just my opinion and might be wrong but I think that’s the case. Someone could search up and confirm if they want.

To me, that clearly means there is no current pipeline that can be used to get Russian gas to Pakistan, as was claimed.
 

farok84

FULL MEMBER
May 26, 2010
718
8
1,382
To me, that clearly means there is no current pipeline that can be used to get Russian gas to Pakistan, as was claimed.

Hi,

Our media misquoted.


15 SEP, 16:54

Putin says pipeline gas supplies from Russia to Pakistan possible

But "the Afghan issue" have to be solved first, the president notes

SAMARKAND, September 15. /TASS/. Russia can supply gas to Pakistan, with part of infrastructure ready, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Samarkand on Thursday, adding though that there is an issue of stability in Afghanistan.

"The issue is about pipeline gas supplies from Russia to Pakistan, which is also possible, which means part of infrastructure has already been created, meaning Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan. We have to solve the Afghan issue," Putin said when speaking about energy projects.

"Of course, there are problems connected with political stability, but having in mind our mutually good relations with the Afghan people, I hope this problem can also be solved, I mean Pakistan’s influence on the situation in the country," he added.

Overall, Moscow and Islamabad have other very interesting and ambitious projects, particularly in the energy sector, the Russian president noted. He also mentioned the Pakistani Stream project, which suggests the creation of infrastructure for supplies of liquified natural gas.



For further details, you can read my comments below.

Hi,

Thanks for the tag.

Russia exports tonnes of Lng. They can provide us through their Yamal Lng project.



The question is not whether Russia can provide Lng, but at what price? We can't afford spot buys, even at 50% discount. Dutch TTF traded above $100/mmbtu today, so we should be looking for 5 or 10 years term contract. Any long term contract price, whether through pipeline (TAPI, IP, or Russia-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan/Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan) or seaborne (Lng) has to be lower or match our 2021 Qatar Lng contract (that is 10.2% of three months averaged Brent), which will be extremely hard in case of Lng supplies for Russia.

Unfortunately, no information regarding supposed gas sales have been made public so we can only make guesses.

For pipeline gas, Russia can make couple of plays, a separate pipeline from 1) Uzbekistan (Pipeline No. 4, Fig 2) to Pakistan via Afghanistan, but in my opinion they would simply piggyback on 2) TAPI, that is, tie in the existing CAC Pipeline (Pipeline No. 2, Fig 2) in Turkmenistan to TAPI starting point, buy extra capacity in TAPI and provide Pakistan 750-1000 mmcfd (keeping it under Gazprom's sanction limit and financially less burdening on Russia). There's is a reason why Mr. Zamir Kabulov finds Tapi pipeline idea interesting.



But all this will come into fruition only after TAPI is constructed. So, at least 3 years from the start of construction, the contract term will be much longer 20-25 years (specially if they decide for standalone Uzbekistan route).

So, if a contract (a strategic energy partnership) was indeed signed, it would be multi pronged.

1. Work on pipeline construction through Uzbekistan Route or Turkmenistan route. (Physical gas supply starting after 3-5 years)
2. In meanwhile, supply LNG (1.5mtpa or 2 cargoes/ month) through short term contract (for 3-5 years term) starting October/ November 2022.


Hope, this makes some sense.



View attachment 821739

View attachment 821738

Hi,

Europe's LT contracts are indexed with Dutch TTF. For example, Norwegian (Equinor) gas contract price roughly translates into 70% next day TTF + 30% next month's TTF. So their procurements are tied to LT price that is based on an expensive benchmark, which is innately reflective of the daily trading (spot markets)




That price is highly unlikely, on an oil slope it translates to 6.5% of Brent (when Brent is $100/bbl). In my opinion, it won't be lower than 10.2%. It will be a win if Russia even agrees on it. There are other considerations too, specially for pipelined gas, the biggest one, the delivery point (this will change pipeline tariff and landfall prices) and which countries will be involved other than Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan. For example, TAPI price (in its current form) is roughly 12% (plus $0.45/mmbtu Afghanistan transit), but it also includes pipeline's construction, operational cost and 5% return to Pakistan (on her 5% shares for $500m investment). Unlike Turkmengaz, Gazprom (Gazprombank) will have no issues funding the project. What it will indeed require, is a firm commitment on minimum offtakes (take or pay for atleast 50% of Annual Contract Quantity).




Dear Niaz Sb,

Russia has her own plans of expanding her Lng portfolio from 30mtpa (2020) to 120mtpa (by 2035). They have already increased it to north of 40mtpa.

View attachment 821855


View attachment 821894


View attachment 821913


Yamal in 2020 had already delivered 14% more Lng (18.8mtpa) than designed capacity of her 3 trains, and her fourth one is already launched, bringing her nameplate capacity to 17.4mtpa. In 2021, Yamal Lng produced 19.64mtpa.

View attachment 821911


TAPI, is like the kid who keeps on bouncing from one foster home to another. Turkmengaz (the social services) has already found it a new home.

If I were Gazprom, joining TAPI will be a temporary thing, that is until Turkmenistan increases its production to 33bcm in 2-3 years. Even after that the pipeline will have some extra capacity (it has 6 planned compressor stations). This will be a risk free investment for them. Once they gauge progress of TAPI and behavior of all concerned parties, they can proceed with construction of their own pipeline from Uzbekistan (CAC pipeline 4) to Pakistan via Afghanistan.

I tend to agree that it will be extremely difficult for Russia to compete with Qatar Lng (specially after our 2021 contract) in Pakistan's market and hence any Lng sales will be limited to short term (3-5 years) solution until TAPI or Uzbekistan route gets commissioned. The long term commitment will be through pipelined gas.





Hi,

Thank you for your enlightening comments. Kindly share in detail, the cost and timelines associated with such projects, from Feasibility to FEED, to FID, to EPC award, to Detailed Engineering, to Procurement, to Construction, to Pre-commissioning and finally to Commissioning.

Why should Pakistan pay for the pipeline construction? If Russia or Turkmenistan or Iran wants to sell their gas, they will find a financier to finance it. Pakistan can and will be a junior shareholder (5-10% shareholding, similar to TAPI) and will contribute finances accordingly.
 

farok84

FULL MEMBER
May 26, 2010
718
8
1,382
That makes more sense. Unless the gaps are completed, there can be no Russian gas supply possible to Pakistan.

Hi,

Through pipeline gas, yes.

But we can always import Lng from them. PLL has floated a short term Lng supply contract due to be opened on Oct 3rd, let's see if they will let Russians bid.

1663274919148.png
 

VCheng

ELITE MEMBER
Sep 29, 2010
45,983
57
39,052
Country
Pakistan
Location
United States
But we can always import Lng from them. PLL has floated a short term Lng supply contract due to be opened on Oct 3rd, let's see if they will let Russians bid.

As long as that process does not create issues for Pakistan based on the sanctions on Russia, sure, that will work.
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Total: 1, Members: 0, Guests: 1)


Top Bottom