Agree, it's indeed interesting to see the evolving MENA-US relationship. Say recently KSA begins putting sovereign monies in China, an unprecedented move in their history when they used to put monies exclusively in the West only. US is going to host the so-called "Summit for Democracy" but not a single GCC ally is invited, no Egypt, no Jordan, no Turkey, in fact out of the entire MENA world only Israel (no surprise) and Iraq (at least one Arab representative perhaps) are invited to the party.They should grow this alliance rapidly bring few middle eadt countries in it uae ksa r not happy with usa
Agree, it's indeed interesting to see the evolving US-MENA relationship. Say recently KSA begins putting sovereign monies in China, an unprecedented move in their history when they used to only put monies exclusively in US/Europe. US is going to host the so-called "Summit for Democracy" but not a single GCC ally is invited, no Egypt, no Jordan, no Turkey, in fact out of the entire MENA world only Israel (no surprise) and Iraq are invited to the party.
NATO is an issue for Russia not China. Germany, France and Turkey do not care about China.
It's going to be more than a Quad. The six-members CSTO is already an established military alliance, you may view China, North Korea, Mongolia, Uzbekistan (re-entry) and Tajikistan as kinda "de facto" members, with China being the economic/industrial muscle and Russia continue as military leader. In fact there could be more "de facto" members like Syria, Laos, Cambodia or even nations outside of Eurasian continent, but in order not to repeat the failure of SCO (or NATO but to a lesser degree), expansion needs to be careful, member states with strong pro-west element could endanger the unity of such alliance.Russia China Iran NK new quad
Pakistan/Turkey are friends but too close to the west.
Russia China Iran NK new quad
Pakistan/Turkey are friends but too close to the west.
It's going to be more than a Quad. The six-members CSTO is already an established military alliance, you may view China, North Korea, Mongolia, Uzbekistan (re-entry) and Tajikistan as kinda "de facto" members, with China being the economic/industrial muscle and Russia continue as military leader. In fact there could be more "de facto" members like Syria, Laos, Cambodia or even nations outside of Eurasian continent, but in order not to repeat the failure of SCO (or NATO but to a lesser degree), expansion needs to be careful, member states with strong pro-west element could endanger the unity of such alliance.
I heard in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia is trying to sell oil to China.Not true. China need Russian oil if naval blockade happens.
Russia knows India won't chose them over the US. Russia also knows it has to chose Between China or India the choice is easy to figure out.I wish Pakistan could join this military alliance with China and Russia.
But Russia is too supportive of India.
Well said! That's why almost all multilateral organizations suffer expansion failure to some degree once become "too cluttered", NATO and CSTO included, even US-Japan-Korea tripartite alliance fails, not to mentioned QUAD is nothing more than a group photo session, leaving perhaps AUKUS the real deal. As a start I think most natural addition to Sino-Russia alliance will be CSTO members, or central Asia including Mongolia and Uzbekistan, cos these land-locked states tend to be closely integrated with both China and Russia in most aspects, followed by North Korea. I'm afraid that's as far as it goes at least for the time being.There is really no set define alliances just yet because the world is in election currently and may be in election stage for the next 2-3 decades and alliances could shift back and forth during that period.
Example an Iran inclusion in the Russo-Sino-NK would be bad for them as it could be viewed as threat towards the status quo in the mideast forcing many to go with NATO giving them no other choice really even if they dislike it but in the current status they are in non-alignment to be fairly honest everyone is watching and seeing what happens and will decide which camp to join based on what they can get outta of it and the benefits in it for them meaning nothing is said and done which means China could manage to gather in the next 2-3 decades as many as 40-50 influential allies to join their camp.
Even Central Asia could shift side from the Russian camp depending on if their set policies were to differ each other to greatly or if there were to occur a major counter interest to each other such as Russian attack on KSA or PAK etc etc could force Central Asia to shift alliance etc etc just using this as an example. Their interests has to align.
The showdown won't be immediately and there are atleast 2-3 decades to go before it happens there is plenty of time for them to harvest alliance and they need to go on offensive charm and convince the new partners this shouldn't be difficult thing to achieve considering many won't mind change of guard one way or another. Pakistan has a clear alliance with China in regards to India which it will honor at all costs and will keep neutrality in regards to US-China issues unless the US accepts open hostility stance against them which will make Pakistan break neutrality in there relations but when it comes to India Pakistan is commited to China to a fault but either way we are more chinese aligned in comparison to the US even tho we have cordial relations with them.
Well said! That's why almost all multilateral organizations suffer expansion failure to some degree once become "too cluttered", NATO and CSTO included, even US-Japan-Korea tripartite alliance fails, not to mentioned QUAD is nothing more than group photo session. As a start I think most natural addition to Sino-Russia alliance will be CSTO members, or central Asia including Mongolia and Uzbekistan, cos these land-locked states tend to be closely integrated with both China and Russia in most aspects, followed by North Korea. I'm afraid that's as far as it goes at least for the time being.
The situation in MENA is complicated, you're right to the point, that's why despite both China & Russia are supportive of Iran, both hesitate to get dragged into regional geopolitical fight especially trade-dependent "China Inc.". When it comes to South Asia the Sino-Russia alliance also seems hard to apply, China is clearly pro-Pakistan, Russia is pro-India at least historically, that's exactly why SCO fails big time.
Well said! That's why almost all multilateral organizations suffer expansion failure to some degree once become "too cluttered", NATO and CSTO included, even US-Japan-Korea tripartite alliance fails, not to mentioned QUAD is nothing more than a group photo session, leaving perhaps AUKUS the real deal. As a start I think most natural addition to Sino-Russia alliance will be CSTO members, or central Asia including Mongolia and Uzbekistan, cos these land-locked states tend to be closely integrated with both China and Russia in most aspects, followed by North Korea. I'm afraid that's as far as it goes at least for the time being.
Yes the historical Russia-India tie is increasingly become a baggage for Russian credibility in the Eurasian region and I believe they must have sensed it. Whether they will ditch it or not I can't be sure, but as their ally & friend we just sincerely hope they will.Central Asia is CSTO and allies with Russia but they differ on some parts where they have more in common with China-Pakistan than with Russia example as you put it Russia is more India friendly which central Asia does not share that sentiment or policies they view them as long them security issue especially since the appearance of the RSS element in that instance they are more aligned with Pak-Sino sentance so policies differ in many places where it doesn't really with the Pak-Sino regional outlook which is a more isolated and contained India this is favorable to them and they share these sentiments..
As battlion put it they won't mind partaking in the great sacrifice really and perhaps a participant to count on for the great adventure going down south