• Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Researchers warn India-Pakistan nuclear war could kill 100 million

Discussion in 'Pakistan Strategic Forces' started by Devil Soul, Oct 3, 2019.

  1. Devil Soul

    Devil Soul ELITE MEMBER

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    Researchers warn India-Pakistan nuclear war could kill 100 million
    AFPUpdated October 03, 2019
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    In a new paper published on Wednesday, researchers envisage a scenario which envisaged more than 100 million immediate deaths, followed by global mass starvation after megatons of thick black soot block out sunlight for up to a decade. — AFP/File
    The year is 2025 and militants have attacked India's parliament, killing most of its leaders. New Delhi retaliates by sending tanks into Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK).

    Fearing it will be overrun, Islamabad hits the invading forces with its battlefield nuclear weapons, triggering the deadliest conflict in history — and catastrophic global cooling, with temperatures not seen since the last Ice Age.

    Read: 'Kashmir now a flashpoint, has potential of turning into nuclear war'

    This scenario was modelled by researchers in a new paper published on Wednesday, which envisaged more than 100 million immediate deaths, followed by global mass starvation after megatons of thick black soot block out sunlight for up to a decade.

    ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD
    It comes at a time of renewed tensions between the two South Asian rivals, which have fought several wars over the Kashmir Valley and are rapidly building up their atomic arsenals.

    They currently each have about 150 nuclear warheads at their disposal, with the number expected to climb to more than 200 by 2025.

    “Unfortunately it's timely because India and Pakistan remain in conflict over Kashmir, and every month or so you can read about people dying along the border,” Alan Robock, a professor in environmental sciences at Rutgers University, who co-authored the paper in Science Advances, told AFP.

    India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi scrapped the autonomy of occupied Kashmir in August, following which his Pakistani counterpart Imran Khan warned the United Nations last week that the dispute could escalate into nuclear war.

    The two countries last fought a border conflict in February, but they pulled back from the brink after Pakistan returned a downed pilot to India.

    India has a “no first strike” policy, but reserves the right to mount a nuclear response to any hit by weapons of mass destruction.

    Pakistan has declared it would only use nuclear weapons if it could not stop an invasion by conventional means or were attacked first with nuclear weapons.

    The authors wrote that although their scenario had Pakistan pulling the trigger first, they did not mean to imply they believed this was more likely.

    Mass starvation
    Based on their current populations and the urban centres that would be likely targeted, the researchers estimated up to 125 million could be killed if both countries expended the bulk of their highest yield weapons.

    Around 75-80 million people were killed in World War II.

    This most extreme scenario would involve the use of 100 kiloton weapons, more than six times as powerful as the bombs dropped on Hiroshima.

    A single airburst from such a bomb could kill two million people and injure 1.5 million — but most of the deaths would occur from the raging firestorms that followed the blast.

    “India would suffer two to three times more fatalities and casualties than Pakistan because, in our scenario, Pakistan uses more weapons than India and because India has a much larger population and more densely populated cities,” the paper said.

    As a percentage of its urban population, though, Pakistan's losses would be about twice those of India.

    But nuclear Armageddon would be only the beginning.

    The research found that the firestorms could release 16 million to 36 million tonnes of soot (black carbon) into the upper atmosphere, spreading around the world within weeks.

    The soot in turn would absorb solar radiation, heating the air up and boosting the smoke's rise.

    Sunlight reaching the Earth would decline 20 to 35 per cent, cooling the surface by 2 to 5 degrees Celsius and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30pc.

    Worldwide food shortages would follow, with the effects persisting up to 10 years.

    “I hope our work will make people realise you can't use nuclear weapons, they are weapons of mass genocide,” Robock told AFP, adding the paper lent more evidence to support the 2017 UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

    Johann Chacko, a columnist for Quartz India and doctoral student at SOAS in London, said the work “helps the global community evaluate the cost of nuclear war for everyone, not just the combatant nations,” particularly its climatic impacts.

    But, he added: "There's very little in the history of Indo-Pakistan kinetic conflict to suggest that leadership on either side would continue escalating until they annihilated the other."
     
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  2. W.11

    W.11 ELITE MEMBER

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    the only thing left in this dire economic situation in pakistan is pakistan army explodes one nuclear bomb in its own country and be done with it. as we say na rahe ga bans, na baje gi bansuri
     
  3. AMRAAM

    AMRAAM FULL MEMBER

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    It's coming!!

    Modi knows that he has spent almost his entire life and barely has a few years left so why not go to a WAR and get everyone killed.

    Hearts of these Ganghus need to be filled with fear somehow. They can only fear it when they will see the actual outcome of this conflict. Right now, they are living in Bollywood world and considering Pakistan as a simple walkover even though they were badly beaten up on Feb 27th. They just don't want to accept it which will definitely take the world towards this catastrophe.
     
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  4. litman

    litman SENIOR MEMBER

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    the movie "book of eli" depicted the situation after a nuclear war.
     
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  5. Baz

    Baz FULL MEMBER

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    Ah so these "researchers" already have planned the killing of indian parliamentarians. Wow
     
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  6. Wrath

    Wrath FULL MEMBER

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    :pessimistic:
     
  7. xyxmt

    xyxmt ELITE MEMBER

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    would be a 1 to 10 ratio
     
  8. Max

    Max SENIOR MEMBER

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    China, USA, Russia, France etc did dozens of test some of which were in MT cetagory, Russia tested 60MT tsar bomba, what was it's effect? Why all these tests didn't cause any mass starvation?

    I am not saying nukes are not dengerous, just a question in my curious mind.
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2019
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  9. AMRAAM

    AMRAAM FULL MEMBER

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    They were either tested underground or undersea which will not be the case in Indo-Pak conflict.
     
  10. Max

    Max SENIOR MEMBER

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    Many were tested on ground or launched from air like Tsar bomb.
     
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  11. SABRE

    SABRE FULL MEMBER

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    Most tests done by the US, USSR, China, France, & Britain [& Israel+South Africa, see Vela Incident) were above ground. From so-many numbers of Megaton Yield (MTy) nuclear device tests, only 7 are known to be underground. Very few, especially MTy, nuclear test have been conducted at sea with most being conducted on barges.
     
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  12. jamahir

    jamahir ELITE MEMBER

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    There should be three things to be pursued to survive a nuclear war :

    1. Moving the populations of big cities into smaller and widely spread out townships.

    2. Neighborhood-level Vertical Farms.

    3. More protected seed vaults like the one in Svalbaard.
     
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  13. SABRE

    SABRE FULL MEMBER

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    It would be less risky and may I say even cheaper to instead mutually sue for peace then prepare for mutual destruction. Better to live like a human being then a cockroach.
     
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  14. sohail.ishaque

    sohail.ishaque FULL MEMBER

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    what about the cow dung(Gobar) ??? Can't it be supplied all over the world as it is an effective defense against the nuclear radiation. Proven by NASA.
     
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  15. Itachi

    Itachi FULL MEMBER

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    100 Million?? lol....they need to look at the numbers again...more like a billion if not more. :rolleyes: