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Release of book containing Iranian nuclear archive by Israel in 10 days

Arian

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@Arian ..Do U think the theft of the info by Israel was an intentional act by Iran to let the enemy know what they have so no miscalculation can happen on their side...
PS: @yavar ....the same question to you my friend.
I don't know what the Iranian authorities are up to, but I doubt it. Western agencies have experts that very well understand the extent of Iran's nuclear program and they have access to the IAEA public and confidential reports. It is widely believed (and rightly so) that Iran is fully capable of developing nuclear weapons, at least old designs. Building a gun-type bomb is within the reach of any nation that has access an advanced enrichment program, if it chooses to acquire nuclear weapons. The technology is so old and well-understood that the United States has already started releasing confidential documents about the Manhattan Project and you can find them online with enough calculations and explanations.

Now there are two groups of people. One group believes that Iran already has nuclear weapons, which fail to come up with a rational explanation as to why Iran keeps its civilian nuclear program in its current futile, insignificant form if it already has nuclear weapons, and the other group which includes people like me that believe that even though Iran can build nuclear weapons from a technological point of view, but the implications and consequences of this decision has prevented the Iranian authorities from pursuing nuclear weapons since 2004. The Iranian decision makers probably think that the repercussions of having nuclear arms would outdo the benefits of having them for the ruling class. After all, the ruling class of Iran continue to have financial and familial interests in the Western countries.

I doubt that Iran has allowed the theft of these documents on purpose. And honestly, I doubt that the majority of these documents that Israel claims it has stolen are anything of importance or significance. Most of the things that Israel will claim in future will be based on confidential IAEA reports and the reports by the US intelligence agencies, particularly the PMD reports of the IAEA from 2008 to 2011. But historically, last time a scenario similar to this happened, it first led to a terrible deal with the E3 in 2004 (which almost completely halted our nuclear program), and later Iran was referred to the UNSC and our economy, which was recovering from the Iraq-Iran war with an impressive pace, was hit with 4 rounds of UNSC sanctions and we were getting closer and closer to Article 42 of Chapter 7 of the United Nations.
 

Hack-Hook

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LOL. So, you're basically saying that Iran should've admitted to things that it wanted to keep secret. 🤪 At least now we can deny what they say and claim they're baseless and the burden of proof will be on them, instead of acknowledging everything on our own.
This is why I never trust reformists. 😋
well very hard denying videos . and when the genie is out of the bottle its out of the bottle, you are welcome to put it back . and 99.9% of what was inside those archives were known facts announced to IAEA years before. denying them is somehow absurd.
if Iran published te content at the time no one could made some fairy tale book with them by publishing selected and distorted material from the archives.
 

Stryker1982

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I don't know what the Iranian authorities are up to, but I doubt it. Western agencies have experts that very well understand the extent of Iran's nuclear program and they have access to the IAEA public and confidential reports. It is widely believed (and rightly so) that Iran is fully capable of developing nuclear weapons, at least old designs. Building a gun-type bomb is within the reach of any nation that has access an advanced enrichment program, if it chooses to acquire nuclear weapons. The technology is so old and well-understood that the United States has already started releasing confidential documents about the Manhattan Project and you can find them online with enough calculations and explanations.

Now there are two groups of people. One group believes that Iran already has nuclear weapons, which fail to come up with a rational explanation as to why Iran keeps its civilian nuclear program in its current futile, insignificant form if it already has nuclear weapons, and the other group which includes people like me that believe that even though Iran can build nuclear weapons from a technological point of view, but the implications and consequences of this decision has prevented the Iranian authorities from pursuing nuclear weapons since 2004. The Iranian decision makers probably think that the repercussions of having nuclear arms would outdo the benefits of having them for the ruling class. After all, the ruling class of Iran continue to have financial and familial interests in the Western countries.

I doubt that Iran has allowed the theft of these documents on purpose. And honestly, I doubt that the majority of these documents that Israel claims it has stolen are anything of importance or significance. Most of the things that Israel will claim in future will be based on confidential IAEA reports and the reports by the US intelligence agencies, particularly the PMD reports of the IAEA from 2008 to 2011. But historically, last time a scenario similar to this happened, it first led to a terrible deal with the E3 in 2004 (which almost completely halted our nuclear program), and later Iran was referred to the UNSC and our economy, which was recovering from the Iraq-Iran war with an impressive pace, was hit with 4 rounds of UNSC sanctions and we were getting closer and closer to Article 42 of Chapter 7 of the United Nations.
well very hard denying videos . and when the genie is out of the bottle its out of the bottle, you are welcome to put it back . and 99.9% of what was inside those archives were known facts announced to IAEA years before. denying them is somehow absurd.
if Iran published te content at the time no one could made some fairy tale book with them by publishing selected and distorted material from the archives.
The IAEA report about MPI cold tests being done in the early 2000s were after the nuclear archives were stolen. None the less the archives wouldn't contain up to date (latest) information as by nature, they are archives. They did not know about the site for many years!

1620543674422.png


What does the state of the civilian program have to do with a possible clandestine military program that would be held among the upmost secretive programs in Iranian existence. Probably a handful of people would even know about such tests occurring. If the nation had nuclear weapons, it would mean the nuclear deal(s) has been nothing but a way to string along the rest of the world to give concessions while having a small but secret arsenal. Truly the greatest deception operation in history.

We know these tests have been completed. We know the tests have been done literally up till the last possible step i.e. cold test. The last missing component was the fissile material, now unless Iran has been holding a secret even small stockpile of uranium since the early 2000s or had already enriched weapons grade material in Fordow or any other site prior to the known existence of the site is unknown. I guess at that point, you can make the guess that Iran "is a nuclear weapons power" camp or not. As a matter of fact, a global nuclear weapons power if it can be fitted to a new 3rd stage (Salman based) Sejil model or a liquid-solid Salman based shahab-4 design. Hypothetically speaking of course.
 
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Bahram Esfandiari

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I once read a book (Non fiction mind you) that claimed that Israelis secretly flew out IRIAF F-14A Tomcats out to Israel at the beginning of the Islamic Revolution. Just because some one writes it in a book it does not mean it's true!
 

Stryker1982

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Written by well known nuclear physicist and also war-hawk.

Here's the Summary: (Basically what we were all somewhat expecting, moving towards latent nuclear capability, but has alot of historical activities that were unknown to the public eye)

The Institute of Science and International Security’s new book Iran’s Perilous Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons chronicles the Islamic Republic of Iran’s efforts to build nuclear weapons. The book draws from original Iranian documents seized by Israel’s Mossad in 2018 in a dramatic overnight raid in Tehran. The “Nuclear Archive” allows deep insight into the country’s effort to secretly build nuclear weapons. The book relies on unprecedented access to archive documents, many translated by the Institute into English for the first time.

The first part of the book concentrates on Iran’s crash nuclear weapons program in the early 2000s to build five nuclear weapons and an industrial complex to produce many more. By 2003, responding to growing pressure from European powers to freeze its publicly known nuclear programs and fearing a possible U.S. military attack, Iran’s leaders decided to downsize, but not stop, their secret nuclear weapons effort. The second part of the book discusses Iran’s nuclear path post-2003, revealing a careful plan to continue nuclear weapons work, overcome bottlenecks and better camouflage nuclear weapons development activities.

Since 2003, the Islamic Republic’s nuclear scientists and weaponeers have concentrated on establishing capabilities to make weapon-grade uranium and developing more reliable, longer-range ballistic missiles. Work on the nuclear weapon itself also has continued. Given how much Iran learned about building nuclear weapons during its crash program, combined with its post-2003 accomplishments, the country has developed a sophisticated capability to make nuclear weapons.

Iran appears to have a program to be prepared to make nuclear weapons and to do so on short order. Rather than a crash nuclear weapons program, Iran threatens the world with a program ready to produce nuclear weapons “on-demand.” Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities pose great risks. If Iran detonates a nuclear explosive or demonstrates possession in another way, nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles are sure to follow at a later date. The Middle East will become more dangerous and far less able to walk back from the nuclear precipice. Nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament efforts throughout the world could suffer irredeemably.

The story of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons is nearing a climax. Iran’s Perilous Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons is a richly illustrated and comprehensive assessment of Iran’s nuclear weapons activities and the country’s longstanding subterfuges. It contains much new information and analysis, invaluable in any discussion of the most effective ways to ensure Iran does not build nuclear weapons, indispensable for all those concerned about the spread of nuclear weapons, arms control, and the future of the Middle East.


Major components include the following (Tears of the enemy I will call it):
  • “maintaining the capability to use computer codes to simulate a nuclear weapons explosion. Greater use of simulations would make component testing less necessary.”
  • “retaining a mastery of the multi-point initiation system, e.g., the shock wave generator, including possibly having conducted a successful ‘cold test’ of a nuclear explosive with a surrogate nuclear core.”
  • The third item would be “having the capability to make the neutron initiator.” “Iran planned on using a relatively sophisticated neutron source, or initiator, to trigger a chain reaction in the weapon-grade uranium core of its nuclear weapons.”


The existence of nine major Amad facilities was completely unknown until after the seizure of the Nuclear Archive,

1621395975627.png

I once read a book (Non fiction mind you) that claimed that Israelis secretly flew out IRIAF F-14A Tomcats out to Israel at the beginning of the Islamic Revolution. Just because some one writes it in a book it does not mean it's true!
It's probably true though.
 
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