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Recent CPEC JCC meeting; Pakistani objectives appear to be unmet

Riz

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In the recent JCC meeting, it appears that the Pakistani side could not get anything it set out to get while the Chinese side has gotten everything it wanted. Tariffs for the Chinese IPPs would not be renegotiated, meaning that PML-N ad-hocism would continue costing the country for the foreseeable future. ML-1 project could also not get off the rail where Pakistani view was again not accepted. Most importantly, the CPEC 2.0, where we were supposed to see widespread industrial collaboration, has remained a pipedream. This collaboration was supposed to increase our production capacity and create exportable surpluses, helping us finance the debt component of the CPEC. No progress on this front was made in this JCC either. It is unclear who is to be blamed for the go-slow policy on this front. Instead, we are talking about the construction of Dir, DIK-Peshawar Motorways which would either be constructed by incurring debt or on a BOT basis necessitating hefty tolls once these become operational. Motorways are not utilized in Pakistan for inter/intra-country trade due to the heavy tolls involved. Is this infrastructure going to improve the productive capacity of our economy? PML-N styled spending priorities that the incumbents used to frown upon rightfully have been embraced by them, unfortunately. Dasu dam attack has angered the Chinese to the extent that the construction on this strategic project which is vital to our water/food security and bringing down power tariffs in the long term, has been completely halted. One does not blame the Chinese there because the weakness of our leaders has virtually allowed India to assume the role of Israel and converted Pakistan into an Iran where Israel could take unilateral actions at will. It has increasingly become easy for India to thwart Pakistan's progress, whether Dasu attack, cyber attacks directed at our critical civilian infrastructure (FBR), or the disinformation operation aimed at Newzealand cricket team's visit (economic and image dividends cricket coming back to Pakistan would have had).

Abhi to kom harami nawazy ki polices ka khamyazi agly 20 sall bugtay gi
 

Pak Nationalist

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In order to play world powers against one another, you need patriots in the government. When you have self-serving corrupts, you will only get the sucker's deal each time. I am sure Nawaz government saw political expedience without considering Pakistan's interests. And Imran Khan is an American slave who has damaged the project further to win accolades from his master. We ARE playing world powers, but by giving them turns to hit us where it hurts most.
That's an extreme position. Imran is the most anti-American PM we have had. His government going slow on CPEC has roots in something else. But you are right; we need patriots and staunch nationalists in government to play powers off each other to get deals in our best national interest. PMLN leadership has always been too shortsighted. I reckon the dynamics of our political system where instability is the only constant has a role to play there. When political parties are not sure about the longevity of their governments in the face of "engineered" dharnas and whatnot, politicians seldom think about the long-term stuff. Since PTI had "guarantees," you see the incumbents putting some effort into long-term policymaking today. At the crux of many ills plaguing us is the lack of political stability and intervention of apolitical institutions into the political realm. That is self-defeating for Pakistan. That's the lesson of history we fail to learn.
 

Pak Nationalist

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Xi at the start of the CPEC have told us with the CPEC belt and road initiative both brothers will develop and prosper together. This doesn't looks like it even its our own corrupt rulers doing but surely Chinese knew what they are getting out of us and this is not a win win situation between two brothers more like it one brother is ripping the other one off as one brother was blind.

We are not an African nation 1000's of miles away from the China and where they can do the investments and earn handsome profit. We are the only friend China have got where we can depend on each other, and down and out Pakistan will not be in China interests too. US is still ruling the waves with their Marshal plan development of Europe after the World war no wonder Europe shows up along side the US on every theatre. This flag ship project of belt and road will soon be without a flag and ship will be returning back to the China, if that's how they do business with us and just win for one like it happens in Sri Lanka. China needs to decide on the political level rather then the business level not to spoil brotherhood between the two nations. China have given the best opportunity to the West to make a song a dance about this unless this is not resolved behind the doors. China have to look at Pakistan differently instead of making exuberant profit they need to make a profit without destabilising us and developing Pakistan for their own security and future too.
I agree with you. A lot has been said about the long-term strategic thinking of the Chinese and how it sets them apart from other players on the geopolitical chessboard. However, this rigidity for short-term commercial gains is not depictive of that strategic culture we get to hear from Sinophiles. A prosperous, stronger Pakistan would prove to be a boon for the Chinese, who are short of true and powerful friends just like the Soviets were (that ultimately led to their undoing). One thought that comes to mind is that China might not be extending the concessions to Pakistan because we are not "practically" boarding the Chinese ship wholly. We pay overzealous lipservice to the BRI but remain committed to courting the West and Western interests as well (that is another story that we have failed in courting those as West sees us with suspicion taking our zeal for BRI as a proof of our firm plantation into the Chinese camp; I have talked about it in a comment above). Maybe if China saw as by its side firmly, it could have extended concessions, so in the absence of that, it could see us from the prism of business interests only.

The common theme is that we have been loud-mouthed about BRI and CPEC instead of silently working with utmost diligence on the projects under the same umbrella. This has alienated us from the West that we seek to court as well. While the Chinese seeing our efforts to court the West still, have also grown skeptical of us over time and are unwilling to extend the same kind of concessions they might be willing had we committed ourselves cent percent. For Pakistan, I think we made a mistake by being loudmouthed and overzealous about CPEC instead of just taking the project to its conclusion in silence.
What were the 'bad deals' signed by the last administration in Pakistan? As per the dawn article, it seems like China expects $1.4 billion dollars in payment. What would be the consequence if Pakistan refuses to pay at this time?

As Pakistan is a strategic ally of China, I think it will get a more preferential treatment than a country like Sri Lanka.
We entered take or pay agreements in setting up the power plants in G2G agreements involving Chinese construction companies. Now we are stuck with overcapacity and capacity payments. This is compounding the miseries of our power sector that, even before the introduction of excess capacity, had a chronic circular debt problem.
It has started to look like Chinese are making clowns out of us. Constant loans for highways, terrible IPPs contracts, not developing ML1 or any industries.
The bigger question is that why are we asking for infrastructure development that is not aligned with our national interest or increasing the productive capacity of our economy? Why blame the Chinese for our own foolishness? PTI is doing the same things it used to lambaste PMLN for rightly. What good would Peshawar DI Khan motorway serve Pakistan? Are motorways in Pakistan being used as lines of communication for trade? If not, why? Because the toll is very high? A whole lot of foolishness that does not come to an end.
 
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Pak Nationalist

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CPEC was a game changer before but only now Pakistanis are realizing that it was actually a noose around their necks. Back then people were raising concerns about secrecy of the deals involving CPEC. Entire PDF would shout that toll gate collection from trade to China (lol) would be enough for paying back. Now begging China to reduce and cut back on the interests. Pakistani leadership and its people have no foresight.

Come out of this brother brother relationship. Pakistanis are fools to think like that in the first place. Understand your position ( both economically and politically ) and work for your interests period. No one is out there to help Pakistan. And please stop lecturing others on how to deal with you. They are better placed to make such decisions for themselves. If India and China can resolve their issues, the latter will dump you in the trash and invest in India like there is no tomorrow. So please wake up and smell the coffee.
If you think the stock here at PDF is the sole representative of the Pakistani public's intellect, you are grossly mistaken. There were many critical voices in Pakistan even then. Even the conservatives that usually align with the narrative of state institutions were cynical about the closed-door deals being made. However, everything wretched is not done by design oftentimes. The same happened during the last PML N stint. Pakistan needed to increase its power generation capacity and do it fast. Enter the Chinese. PML N leaders saw their entry and CPEC as a lifeline to address the chronic power woes of the country. CPEC addressed our power generation shortfall but left excess capacity because the concerned could not project demand properly. Much of the capacity could have been absorbed if an era of industrialization had been unleashed. CPEC 2.0 envisaged that. Comes 2018 and enters PTI, which for reasons unknown till now (maybe IMF, concern in military establishment vis a vis the nature of the CPEC deals, pro-West elements in Pakistani policymaking/political circles, etc.) put brakes on the pace of CPEC development. Consequently, Pakistan still awaits the CPEC 2.0 to kick off. Chinese grow impatient with the lack of pace in developing projects and may be unwilling to extend concessions to inflict costs for our government's vacillations. We are left with an excess capacity that cannot be absorbed because the industries (and SEZs) that were going to consume major chunks were never set up (or see plodding progress).

CPEC was definitely a game-changer, but the unforeseen circumstances that arise in the execution of such large-scale ventures in third world countries have made sure its potential remains unharnessed till now.
 

ghazi52

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$3.2 Billion Karachi Coastal Comprehensive Development Zone (KCCDZ) included under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor framework.

MARITIME MINISTRY INITIATES A HUGE ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION PROJECT FOR KARACHI UNDER CPEC

A monumental decision was taken during the 10th Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) on CPEC, held on 23rd September 2021 at Islamabad and Beijing. The two countries agreed to include Karachi Coastal Comprehensive Development Zone (KCCDZ) under the CPEC framework.


KCCDZ, an initiative of the Ministry of Maritime Affairs focuses on providing Karachi with an ultra modern urban infrastructure zone, placing Karachi amongst the top port cities of the world.

In a first of its kind even for CPEC, the planned multibillion dollar mega KCCDZ project will be built on direct Chinese investment in partnership with Karachi Port Trust (KPT). The quantum of expected investment is around USD 3.5 billion.
 

GOAT

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Renegotiating long term deals such as these has a low likelihood of success, this shouldn’t come as a surprise.
 

CriticalThought

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That's an extreme position. Imran is the most anti-American PM we have had. His government going slow on CPEC has roots in something else. But you are right; we need patriots and staunch nationalists in government to play powers off each other to get deals in our best national interest. PMLN leadership has always been too shortsighted. I reckon the dynamics of our political system where instability is the only constant has a role to play there. When political parties are not sure about the longevity of their governments in the face of "engineered" dharnas and whatnot, politicians seldom think about the long-term stuff. Since PTI had "guarantees," you see the incumbents putting some effort into long-term policymaking today. At the crux of many ills plaguing us is the lack of political stability and intervention of apolitical institutions into the political realm. That is self-defeating for Pakistan. That's the lesson of history we fail to learn.
His advisers are chums with Jared Krushner and have been following an American agenda. As soon as his minister was given access to Nadra database, the first thing he tried was stealing the data. Trump is on record saying Imran Khan is his great friend. The game of selling Pakistan's interests would have gone further if Trump remained in power. But Joe Biden came along and Pakistan has completely lost its geo-strategic value. Now, America's only interest is somehow getting rid of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and if Bajwa and Khan could easily deliver on it, they would. Meanwhile, they have been trying hard to follow the American diktaks regarding India. I have this straight from the mouth of an ex-Australian diplomat who has worked in Islamabad that we had been calling for the Kartarpur Corridor for years. Bajwa and Khan have realized this Western agenda. They have made no effort to enhance cotton production and instead they are trying to make our textile industry dependent on Indian cotton. And now, Shaukat Tarin has openly said he doesn't care about textiles and the whole focus is on IT. A sector where funding is coming from America, and exports will be to America. The companies formed will be headed by Americans. This is how they operate: use cheap Pakistani talent for production, pay them only for cheap production costs to export to America, sell for huge profits and keep profits in America. None of this will have any positive impact on Pakistan's debt which will keep increasing, or the exchange rate. They are selling the country into servitude and using superficial successes to dupe an ignorant and largely illiterate nation.
 
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hydrabadi_arab

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Tbh China doesnt have lot do with power plants. Remember that stupid plan to build 10 coal power plants in Balochistan?

Fact is Pakistan is corrupt country where people look to earn “comission” in every project. More projects mean more money.
 

ziaulislam

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In order to play world powers against one another, you need patriots in the government. When you have self-serving corrupts, you will only get the sucker's deal each time. I am sure Nawaz government saw political expedience without considering Pakistan's interests. And Imran Khan is an American slave who has damaged the project further to win accolades from his master. We ARE playing world powers, but by giving them turns to hit us where it hurts most.
IK is vetting the projects more just like every other country be it bengladesh or mayalsia

Where as nawaj said yes to everything

If pakistanis love CPEC then why arenot they ready to pay the price

This is open knowledge CPEC hydro is 8 cents(14 rupees approx 18 after taxes) vs asian bank funded at 4 cents
 

Pak Nationalist

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His advisers are chums with Jared Krushner and have been following an American agenda. As soon as his minister was given access to Nadra database, the first thing he tried was stealing the data. Trump is on record saying Imran Khan is his great friend. The game of selling Pakistan's interests would have gone further if Trump remained in power. But Joe Biden came along and Pakistan has completely lost its geo-strategic value. Now, America's only interest is somehow getting rid of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and if Bajwa and Khan could easily deliver on it, they would. Meanwhile, they have been trying hard to follow the American diktaks regarding India. I have this straight from the mouth of an ex-Australian diplomat who has worked in Islamabad that we had been calling for the Kartarpur Corridor for years. Bajwa and Khan have realized this Western agenda. They have made no effort to enhance cotton production and instead they are trying to make our cotton industry dependent on Indian cotton. And now, Shaukat Tarin has openly said he doesn't care about textiles and the whole focus is on IT. A sector where funding is coming from America, and exports will be to America. The companies formed will be headed by Americans. This is how they operate: use cheap Pakistani talent for production, pay them only for cheap production costs to export to America, sell for huge profits and keep profits in America. None of this will have any positive impact on Pakistan's debt which will keep increasing, or the exchange rate. They are selling the country into servitude and using superficial successes to dupe an ignorant and largely illiterate nation.
o_O
Tbh China doesnt have lot do with power plants. Remember that stupid plan to build 10 coal power plants in Balochistan?

Fact is Pakistan is corrupt country where people look to earn “comission” in every project, and more projects mean more money.
That might be one of the reasons plants after plants were set up, and the power demand was not properly projected in the years to come. However, the source of worry is the full stop (or excruciatingly slow development) on CPEC 2.0 to attract Chinese industry to Pakistan, construct SEZs, and enable us to repay the debt accumulated for all the infrastructure development across the length and breadth of the country. Articles were being written in Dawn about the overcapacity that would arise after the LNG-based plant was launched in Punjab.
 

khansaheeb

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A dispassionate analysis of the CPEC related developments is scheming? Are you aware that the debt portion of CPEC was supposed to be financed majorly by CPEC 2.0 that involved increasing our domestic production? The financial sustainability of the CPEC project rests on the successful implementation of CPEC 2.0 that involves large-scale industrial cooperation. Highlighting how we are lagging on that in the wider interest of CPEC project is scheming? Pakistan is not a super-rich country, true. That is why we needed industrial cooperation to produce exportable surpluses earning precious foreign exchange to pay for all the debt-based infrastructure development (there is a debt component to the CPEC, too) that was being developed. "Evil eyes" and "hands" would be successful if progress on CPEC 2.0 is not made. Evil hands are already successful in threatening the security of Chinese workers in Pakistan. Why would Chinese investors invest in an insecure environment? Again, that success must be attributed to weak leadership and lack of capability build-up in the security realm.
Perhaps you need to have a more passionate approach for achievement and success. CPEC is a success story comparable to any in human history, with the help of the Chinese people, Pakistan has achieved what was deemed impossible. Pakistan has been transformed from a country on the brink of being a failed state to a country with a dynamic and thriving economy and an infrastructure on par with the richest nations of the world. With what little money that was left by the corrupts from the previous govs, the PTI gov have continued the projects and have successfully completed a vast network of roads, bridges, Dams, port/dry ports , power plants and economic industrial zones. PTI had to make hard business sense decisions for continuity based on the state of the finances and the economic climate. PTI economists were obligated and expected to review the whole scheme and cut some projects to balance the books. China accepted the review and the projects were adjusted accordingly.

In a bureaucratic and corrupt country like Pakistan achieving CPEC 1.0 is in it self a huge achievement and praises should be sung for all those who helped achieve it from Nawaz Sharif, President Xi, PM Imran Khan and Pakistan and Chinese armed forces. As you have seen there were huge challenges to overcome and you don't seem to be appreciating the colossal size and scale of the projects, the jobs it has created, the skills and empowerment of the workers and their families. The number of these projects and the technology behind them has awed the world. Chinese technology and Pakistani and Chinese spirit of workmanship has stunned the world who thought it was impossible. Other nations who had looked into the feasibility of such projects always had negative reports and these same projects were drowned as being not feasible or too costly. Only China had the sincerity and commitment to make this happen.

Like all investments there will be people who will get cold feet and worry if it was the right investment. As in all investments there will be people who have unreasonable expectations and timescales. Yes Pakistan did go on a spending spree and, mix in Pakistan's corruption, delays and higher project costs were inevitable. Higher project costs means the debt to China will be increased and they haven't given us free money, China is not a charity , they have 1.4 billion people to feed and CPEC is a business and strategic venture for them and us. it's Pakistan's dependencies on foreign factors (not Chinese) that is undermining rapid CPEC progress including Currency rates, gov and external debt and foreign entities, whose economic system game we are playing, undermine our economic gains through uncontrolled foreign capital flows. This results in Pakistan attempting to reduce debt by borrowing and hence increasing debt causing Pakistan to be stuck in a cycle and trapped. This is a result of our Western trained economists who only know the Western economics game and not a fault of any other nation. Iran realised long time ago that if you play someone else's game and you keep losing then it best to stop playing the game.

The planners were aware of the risks to the project and these were not unfounded. Other than the financial costs Pakistan has had to focus huge resources in security. Building the fence with Afghanistan, allocating two Divisions and more of PA and suffering a relentless Indian sponsored terrorism has increased the costs. There is also a continual spiteful anti-CPEC agenda spread daily by the enemies of Pakistan who attack it from all angles. Like old hags they keep bitching about the debt, pace, wisdom and need for the investments. The enemies of Pakistan want to undermine CPEC at all costs and will spend huge fortunes from it being a success. We need to be disciplined and focused and counter all the negativities being spewed around. Like all investments they focus on the pains of today and not the pleasures of tomorrow which CPEC will bring to countless generations. The sacrifices of todays generation will be appreciated and enjoyed by the next.
 
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HalfMoon

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In the recent JCC meeting, it appears that the Pakistani side could not get anything it set out to get while the Chinese side has gotten everything it wanted. Tariffs for the Chinese IPPs would not be renegotiated, meaning that PML-N ad-hocism would continue costing the country for the foreseeable future. ML-1 project could also not get off the rail where Pakistani view was again not accepted. Most importantly, the CPEC 2.0, where we were supposed to see widespread industrial collaboration, has remained a pipedream. This collaboration was supposed to increase our production capacity and create exportable surpluses, helping us finance the debt component of the CPEC. No progress on this front was made in this JCC either. It is unclear who is to be blamed for the go-slow policy on this front. Instead, we are talking about the construction of Dir, DIK-Peshawar Motorways which would either be constructed by incurring debt or on a BOT basis necessitating hefty tolls once these become operational. Motorways are not utilized in Pakistan for inter/intra-country trade due to the heavy tolls involved. Is this infrastructure going to improve the productive capacity of our economy? PML-N styled spending priorities that the incumbents used to frown upon rightfully have been embraced by them, unfortunately. Dasu dam attack has angered the Chinese to the extent that the construction on this strategic project which is vital to our water/food security and bringing down power tariffs in the long term, has been completely halted. One does not blame the Chinese there because the weakness of our leaders has virtually allowed India to assume the role of Israel and converted Pakistan into an Iran where Israel could take unilateral actions at will. It has increasingly become easy for India to thwart Pakistan's progress, whether Dasu attack, cyber attacks directed at our critical civilian infrastructure (FBR), or the disinformation operation aimed at Newzealand cricket team's visit (economic and image dividends cricket coming back to Pakistan would have had).

Pure Indian propaganda. No one takes dawn seriously.
 

ziaulislam

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I am not saying its chinese fault here

Its pakistanis fault

Instead of a true owner ship ww gave them BOT model hence very expensive hydro for first 15 years

It should have been a flat tarrif for 40-50 yrs rather then BOT model to gather power at aroind 4-5 cents rather then 8-10 cents

Same is true for coal..why go for coal at 8 cents
The RLNG by pakistan own govt(PMLN era project) is cheaper then CPEC coal

These are all pakostani decisions

So is the orange rail at whopping 3 b$
 

Pak Nationalist

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Perhaps you need to have a more passionate approach for achievement and success. CPEC is a success story comparable to any in human history, with the help of the Chinese people, Pakistan has achieved what was deemed impossible. Pakistan has been transformed from a country on the brink of being a failed state to a country with a dynamic and thriving economy and an infrastructure on par with the richest nations of the world. With what little money that was left by the corrupts from the previous govs, the PTI gov have continued the projects and have successfully completed a vast network of roads, bridges, Dams, port/dry ports , power plants and economic industrial zones. PTI had to make hard business sense decisions for continuity based on the state of the finances and the economic climate. PTI economists were obligated and expected to review the whole scheme and cut some projects to balance the books. China accepted the review and the projects were adjusted accordingly.

In a bureaucratic and corrupt country like Pakistan achieving CPEC 1.0 is in it self a huge achievement and praises should be sung for all those who helped achieve it from Nawaz Sharif, President Xi, PM Imran Khan and Pakistan and Chinese armed forces. As you have seen there were huge challenges to overcome and you don't seem to be appreciating the colossal size and scale of the projects, the jobs it has created, the skills and empowerment of the workers and their families. The number of these projects and the technology behind them has awed the world. Chinese technology and Pakistani and Chinese spirit of workmanship has stunned the world who thought it was impossible. Other nations who had looked into the feasibility of such projects always had negative reports and these same projects were drowned as being not feasible or too costly. Only China had the sincerity and commitment to make this happen.

Like all investments there will be people who will get cold feet and worry if it was the right investment. As in all investments there will be people who have unreasonable expectations and timescales. Yes Pakistan did go on a spending spree and, mix in Pakistan's corruption, delays and higher project costs were inevitable. Higher project costs means the debt to China will be increased and they haven't given us free money, China is not a charity , they have 1.4 billion people to feed and CPEC is a business and strategic venture for them and us. it's Pakistan's dependencies on foreign factors (not Chinese) that is undermining rapid CPEC progress including Currency rates, gov and external debt and foreign entities, whose economic system game we are playing, undermine our economic gains through uncontrolled foreign capital flows. This results in Pakistan attempting to reduce debt by borrowing and hence increasing debt causing Pakistan to be stuck in a cycle and trapped. This is a result of our Western trained economists who only know the Western economics game and not a fault of any other nation. Iran realised long time ago that if you play someone else's game and you keep losing then it best to stop playing the game.

The planners were aware of the risks to the project and these were not unfounded. Other than the financial costs Pakistan has had to focus huge resources in security. Building the fence with Afghanistan, allocating two Divisions and more of PA and suffering a relentless Indian sponsored terrorism has increased the costs. There is also a continual spiteful anti-CPEC agenda spread daily by the enemies of Pakistan who attack it from all angles. Like old hags they keep bitching about the debt, pace, wisdom and need for the investments. The enemies of Pakistan want to undermine CPEC at all costs and will spend huge fortunes from it being a success. We need to be disciplined and focused and counter all the negativities being spewed around. Like all investments they focus on the pains of today and not the pleasures of tomorrow which CPEC will bring to countless generations. The sacrifices of todays generation will be appreciated and enjoyed by the next.
How much has our GDP grown as a consequence of CPEC 1.0? Where are we getting the capacity charges from in our energy sector from most newly constructed power plants that necessitated the GoP's intention to renegotiate the CPEC power projects? Such a beautiful picture you have painted. It appears we have lived in two separate Pakistans. I would take a dispassionate analysis focusing on cost-benefit and undelivered promises over such "passion".
 

khansaheeb

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How much has our GDP grown as a consequence of CPEC 1.0? Where are we getting the capacity charges from in our energy sector from most newly constructed power plants that necessitated the GoP's intention to renegotiate the CPEC power projects? Such a beautiful picture you have painted. It appears we have lived in two separate Pakistans. I would take a dispassionate analysis focusing on cost-benefit and undelivered promises over such "passion".
You need to be patient my friend, time is money with CPEC. Definition of investment:-" An investment is a purchase that is completed with money that has the potential to produce income or a profit. ... Investing is the act of putting forth capital with the expectation of income or profit. Personal investing is buying financial securities or property for the purpose of making a profit."(https://www.m1finance.com/articles-2/what-is-an-investment/)

CPEC 1.0 is infrastructure investment , CPEC 2.0 is Industrial wealth generation. CPEC 3.0 will be Cultural wealth generation. There will be so much much money floating around people will be spending more time on leisure and vacations.
 
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