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Question regarding ICBM Strike against Any Country

Discussion in 'Pakistan Strategic Forces' started by Stealth, Aug 1, 2013.

  1. Stealth

    Stealth ELITE MEMBER

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    One Question is stuck in my mind from the last few days. If any ICBM or Long-Range missile hits any country then how the Military of that Country recognizes from where the missile was fired? How to retaliate in this situation and against whom?


    Example:

    I heard some story regarding US Missile Strikes from Arabian Sea & Gulf of Oman on Afghanistan in the late 90s. There was some intel regarding the whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden the lead to those strikes. Those strikes passed through Baluchistan Air-Space (Pakistan) thus violating the Pakistani air space. To prevent the Pakistani Military from going on a high alert against India, US officials immediately informed Pakistani counterparts (then present in the United States) about the US strikes on Afghanistan.
     
  2. Major Sam

    Major Sam STAFF

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    u r talking about tome hawk cruise missiles.
     
  3. Stealth

    Stealth ELITE MEMBER

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    Yes Exactly.... Read the Question please...
     
  4. Skull and Bones

    Skull and Bones ELITE MEMBER

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    Much of the trajectory of ICBM is above the atmosphere, hence one cannot term it as their own airspace. And the source of the missile is identified by it's trajectory, and it's not an error proof method.
     
  5. Tk_90

    Tk_90 BANNED

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    There is a great diffrence between ICBM and a Cruise missile!An ICBM is above the atmosphere while a cruise missile is well within the atmosphere!
     
  6. Stealth

    Stealth ELITE MEMBER

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    Uncle mainay Example dee hey lagta hey Thread ka topic samaj may nahe aya :P

    How identify?
     
  7. Pak47

    Pak47 FULL MEMBER

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    There is a variety of factors to consider. All are important.

    -The size of a missile can be tracked. Once the size is calculated you know weather its a SLBM, ICBM etc, Solid Fueled or Liquid Fueled, and how many stages it has.
    -If its a submarine countries usually know what parts the missile sub is patrolling.
    -Intelligence agency's
    -Launch will most likely coincide with a particular incident.
    -Satellites

    General reasoning would allow most nations to figure out very quickly who launched a missile because only a select few nations have them.
     
  8. Black Widow

    Black Widow BANNED

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    Concept of physics-Part-I. H C Verma Class 11th....
     
  9. The Deterrent

    The Deterrent PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    The military forces of established nuclear powers (USA+UK/Russia) have Ballistic Missile Early Warning Systems (Satellite based and Phased Array Radar based [e.g. PAVE PAWS]), which can detect an unidentified ballistic missile and track it while it is still in boost phase. This allows for determination of launch point (by plotting the ballistic trajectory backwards), which can easily show the hostile country, unless it is an SLBM. If it is an SLBM (as in, the point of launch is an ocean), the hostile country's identity can be determined by knowing the probable patrolling regions of SSBNs, contacting allies and the probable hostile country itself over the Presidential hotlines.

    Once the boost phase terminates, it becomes easy to calculate point (or points, in case of MIRVs, after they are dispensed) of impact by determining range of the missile and velocity characteristics. Combining this data with already known data based on intelligence gathering and observation of test flights, the missile itself can also be identified. So basically, everything can be determined before the missile even hits the target.

    After the impact, the radioactive material from ground zero can be analyzed to find out the exact proportion of fissile material used in the nuclear weapon, which can be used to find out the reactor which produced it, hence determining the hostile nation.

    Combined with other factors for example intelligence gathering (mass mobilization of nuclear assets), the specific world affairs (e.g. chances of a possible conflict), it can be determined if the hostile country is preparing for a massive first strike.

    I suggest you watch the movie "The Sum of All Fears". It describes a nuclear escalation between USA/Russia with reasonable accuracy.
     
  10. Ayush

    Ayush SENIOR MEMBER

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    Don't bring back bad memories bro :fie: :P
     
  11. Stealth

    Stealth ELITE MEMBER

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    What about those countries who don't have Early Warning State of the Art Systems to detect ICBM or SLBM?
     
  12. The Deterrent

    The Deterrent PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    Well, they can collaborate with their allies. For example, if there is any attack on NATO countries, I suppose they all will know the hostile country because of alliance with USA.

    For others, the intelligence information would be good enough. Although it won't be possible to determine the hostile country with absolute certainty during the missile's flight, it can be done after impact. Reason being, it is impossible for any country to hide an attack like this. Spies within the hostile country can easily obtain that information, because an event like this would be in discussion at every level...be it a rogue launch or an authorized one.
     
  13. Stealth

    Stealth ELITE MEMBER

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    Right on spot... that is what I am actually wanted to know is how the Non-US ally got intel like for example. If Iran under attack with missile strike how the Iran will detect either the strike done by Israel or US?
     
  14. The Deterrent

    The Deterrent PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST

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    First, it would be better to use cruise missiles and stealth aircrafts, as it would increase the ambiguity of the attacker.

    Now if it is a ballistic missile strike, a sound knowledge of the capabilities of both countries is enough. For example, Israel possess only land based ballistic missiles, so any launch from the Israeli territory can be detected by Iranian allies in Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan etc, and that information can be easily relayed to the Iranians.

    US possesses both land-based ICBMs (the silo-based Minuteman-IIIs) at 3 separate locations, and the Trident SLBMs aboard the Ohio-class SSBNs. For ICBMs, any intelligence source of Iranians can easily report a launch coinciding with impact in Iran. If the strike did not originate from the missile silos in US AirForce Bases, neither from Israel, then it would certainly be concluded to originate from an SSBN, which could belong to US/UK/France.

    Furthermore, Iranian intelligence operatives in US can easily determine the hostile nation by using their skills.
     
  15. Skull and Bones

    Skull and Bones ELITE MEMBER

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    The apogee can be calculated from the angle of entry, and so can be the launch region. If it's a SLBM launch, then the possibility of the presence of a hostile nation with sea launch capability is taken into account.