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PLA will hold massive Taiwan invasion exercises in Yellow Sea tomorrow

Feng Leng

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There are live fire military exercises targeting Taiwan every week now. Different units rotate conducting them. Mobilization is complete. As soon as the situation escalates between now and the November elections in the US, PLA will immediately sweep into Taiwan.
 

52051

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According to US admiral, they think it will only take 3 days for PLA to take over Taiwan.

It has never been the problem whether PLA can take over Taiwan, it has always to do with whether PLA can take over Taiwan by defeating US rescuing force in an possibly all-out war.

If the war can remain conventional, there is no problem that PLA crushed the US in this scenario, even multiple US own studies from DoD and Rand confirmed that.

It is always the problem whether the war will go nuke, if the US lost lots men (according to DoD of US's studies, they believed they will lose 200,000 to 300,000 men per day in this scenario with an all-out war with China) yet without going nuke.

ATM, despite of whatever studies, China don't have the same kind of nuke capabilities vs-via the US, especially the warheads that could reach the US.

So until China developed peer-level nuke capabilities, especially the nuke delivery capabilities, there is always a risk that the US will go nuke after they lost a conventional war badly.

So I don't think its wise to take over Taiwan until China have sufficient ICBMs (I means 1500+ ICBM warheads).
 

nufix

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According to US admiral, they think it will only take 3 days for PLA to take over Taiwan.

It has never been the problem whether PLA can take over Taiwan, it has always to do with whether PLA can take over Taiwan by defeating US rescuing force in an possibly all-out war.

If the war can remain conventional, there is no problem that PLA crushed the US in this scenario, even multiple US own studies from DoD and Rand confirmed that.

It is always the problem whether the war will go nuke, if the US lost lots men (according to DoD of US's studies, they believed they will lose 200,000 to 300,000 men per day in this scenario with an all-out war with China) yet without going nuke.

ATM, despite of whatever studies, China don't have the same kind of nuke capabilities vs-via the US, especially the warheads that could reach the US.

So until China developed peer-level nuke capabilities, especially the nuke delivery capabilities, there is always a risk that the US will go nuke after they lost a conventional war badly.

So I don't think its wise to take over Taiwan until China have sufficient ICBMs (I means 1500+ ICBM warheads).
200-300k casualties per day in a conventional war? That sounds more like a nuclear war.

which study is this?
 

Figaro

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This guy, 詹姆斯·温尼菲尔德, his English name should be James Winsfield or whatever, he is your former vice chief of staff of US military whatever.

I am sure you can find the English source, his article is published in a Journal of US navy
https://dy.163.com/article/FK3PB25305504DOH.html
Former top US officials say China could take Taiwan in 3 days in early 2021

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — In an essay published by the U.S. Naval Institute, former Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Michael Morell and former Admiral James Winnefeld warn that Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) will "bring Taiwan back into China" in mid-January 2021.

With the West distracted by the U.S. election and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the authors believe the "operation" will be completed in just three days.

Morell and Winnefeld paint a worst-case scenario in the article, published by the private, non-profit U.S. Naval Institute. They predict the operation will unfold quickly, "beginning on the evening of 18 January," prior to the U.S. presidential inauguration.

At the same time, China will carry out cyberattacks to cripple the country by disabling the national power grid and other important utilities. This will be followed by a swift sea and air blockade, with several People's Liberation Army (PLA) submarines joining in the action.

The authors imagine the blockade will pave the way for the landing of PLA amphibious forces. Meanwhile, China would send stern warnings not to intervene to the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other Taiwanese allies.

On the second day, global stock markets will crash due to the turmoil. World leaders will make statements condemning the attack, but nothing more. Bogged down by multiple issues, Washington will be unable to react.

On the third day after the attack, Morell and Winnefeld believe it will be too late for Washington to reverse the damage. Xi would then whitewash the invasion by telling the world that the "Chinese Dream" has been fulfilled and "welcome the people of Taiwan home."
 

nufix

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Former top US officials say China could take Taiwan in 3 days in early 2021

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — In an essay published by the U.S. Naval Institute, former Deputy Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Michael Morell and former Admiral James Winnefeld warn that Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) will "bring Taiwan back into China" in mid-January 2021.

With the West distracted by the U.S. election and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the authors believe the "operation" will be completed in just three days.

Morell and Winnefeld paint a worst-case scenario in the article, published by the private, non-profit U.S. Naval Institute. They predict the operation will unfold quickly, "beginning on the evening of 18 January," prior to the U.S. presidential inauguration.

At the same time, China will carry out cyberattacks to cripple the country by disabling the national power grid and other important utilities. This will be followed by a swift sea and air blockade, with several People's Liberation Army (PLA) submarines joining in the action.

The authors imagine the blockade will pave the way for the landing of PLA amphibious forces. Meanwhile, China would send stern warnings not to intervene to the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Australia, and other Taiwanese allies.

On the second day, global stock markets will crash due to the turmoil. World leaders will make statements condemning the attack, but nothing more. Bogged down by multiple issues, Washington will be unable to react.

On the third day after the attack, Morell and Winnefeld believe it will be too late for Washington to reverse the damage. Xi would then whitewash the invasion by telling the world that the "Chinese Dream" has been fulfilled and "welcome the people of Taiwan home."
Historically, the actual war started after such invasion took place. World War 2 only escalated when Germany successfully took over half of Europe. Falkland War started after Argentina took over Falkland, Gulf war escalated after Iraq successfully took over Kuwait. So I think in this context, the real question is more about how China could hold on to recently conquered Taiwan. The US and West might be distracted when China launched the attack, but as soon as China militarily seized Taiwan, all eyes will surely turn towards China.

Arguably, China is not doing so well in building alliances, especially with its immediate neighboring countries, and China can never sustain the fight alone in an all out war against pretty much the whole world.
 

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