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PL-9 SRAAM

Discussion in 'Pakistan Strategic Forces' started by EagleEyes, Mar 17, 2007.

  1. Keysersoze

    Keysersoze SENIOR MEMBER

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    Oh I am sorry I should have realised that a growing superpower would simply knuckle under and allow a smaller nation dictate to it. What was I thinking?:disagree: Like it or not the Chinese will not allow this to be the case and their growth into a superpower will put it into contention, hence they will put billions into developing power projection into areas such as the Indian ocean. and whilst your navy will have new bases the Chinese will do absolutely nothing........:disagree:

    Oh and for the record the Russian carriers are designed for bastion defence rather than forward operations so to have this idea of blockading Chinese ports is somewhat far fetched.

    To use your own phrase "stop wetdreaming"
     
  2. Adux

    Adux SENIOR MEMBER

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    I said Karachi Port Blockading, If you have read the thread I have always maintained IN nor PLAN doesnt have the legs or porjection capacity to influence each other's home turf. Yes PLAN is on the way to be Navy of a very powerful Nation, But NewsFlash for you so are we. Do you know why Vikramaditya and IAC -1 are slated for Western Seaboard, while IAC-2 mostly a catapult is slated for the Eastern Seaboard(Rumour Mill), In Comparison to China we are more than thier match, hell we are better than the India-Pakistan comparison.

    Diego Garcia, is a US Naval as well as a B-2 Base, taken on lease from Great Britian. If you expect US, Japan or India to allow Chinese Presence in this area, China's primary concern : Taiwan is a lost cause, You can expect forward deployment of US Carrier Groups.
     
  3. PakSniper

    PakSniper SENIOR MEMBER

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    If you read their is an Island nation that has a contract with China (Naval base) I believe Malay posted an article once before (in the Indian Ocean), you must realize the USN can't do anything if China decided to come in, having a base here and their wouldn't matter much, US can't get into a conflict with China way to much at stake especially crippling the US economy we all seen what happened about 3 weeks ago with the stock market it had a global effect of 1.4 Trillion dollars, and dropped US market down 400+ points, hell even right now the financial market is suffering in the US, trade deficit rose to about 23B+ a month (only with China), I just found out about 3 weeks before the college semester ended that US is paying Social Security by taking money from China, teacher presented an article. China and Pakistan together can have an effect in the Indian Ocean, but as I said before China is a rising power has alot at stake and will secure their interests, and I have no doubt in my mind that China will come to Gwadar and also Pakistan is deciding to build another port (I believe about 4) so don't think that Karachi port Blocking will hamper PN, and we will be backed by land assets.

    " Meanwhile on India's eastern flank, China has long maintained a small base and an electronic listening post on the Cocos Islands in the Bay of Bengal, and has also proposed building a Gwadar-style port in Myanmar to join a new railroad from Kunming in China via Sitwe to the Myanmar coast. China has also proposed similar facilities to Bangladesh, improving the current Mongla port and building a new deep-sea port and naval base at Kutupia. "

    http://www.spacewar.com/reports/India_Developing_News_Alliances_999.html

    (You can do further search on your own to find out, as of now they are already near India)

    Oh and not all South East Asian countries will open their bases for Indian Naval Ships.

    But also know it's you people who believe China can't do anything in Indian ocean.

    I wish they did stop, but they make is sound so easy and everything will fall in place for them.
     
  4. Adux

    Adux SENIOR MEMBER

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    Dragon,

    Where is the Chinese GDP Reserves Located ? IOU from US.lol
    The US is so integrated to into the World Economy. A collapse of the US economy will have a duplicate Image all over the world. Dollar is the primary currency used in the world? Where will China sell its products, How will the company's in China work. There is no other market like the US Market. Most company's in CHina are MNC. Dont get clouded by your hate for US. Unless the Euro and Yuan becomes the primary currency of trade, any downfall in US Economy will have and severe impact on the world
    US is far ahead of China, Let China catch up to military tech of the old Soviet Union first.

    Read this,
    20 July 2005
    ''India's Project Seabird and the Indian Ocean's Balance of Power''
    ews on New Delhi's foreign policy has recently been among the top stories in the media. On April 11, 2005, India started a strategic partnership with China, and, on June 29, 2005, signed a 10-year defense agreement with the United States. Western observers, however, have paid less attention to an ambitious Indian move in the military field: Project Seabird. This plan -- with origins from the mid-1980s -- is to be assessed in light of two geopolitical triangles juxtaposing on the Indian Ocean's background: U.S.-India-China relations and China-Pakistan-India relations. In this complicated geopolitical configuration, New Delhi is not simply a partner of China or the United States: India is emerging as a major power that follows its own grand strategy in order to enhance its power and interests.

    India's New Diplomacy

    India is emerging as a decisive player in U.S.-China bilateral relations, often regarded as the real landmark of this decade's geopolitics. New Delhi launched a potentially revolutionary "strategic partnership for peace and prosperity" with China on April 11, 2005. The move was aimed at ending the Sino-Indian border dispute on Aksai-Chin (existing since 1962), and at boosting mutual trade and economic ties. Prospects for a more cooperative relationship between the two Asian giants are to be read in light of regional powers' ambition to reshape world order along the guidelines of a balanced multipolarity -- a goal already expressed by China, France and Russia, among other states.

    However, in order to rise as a great power, India needs more than economic assets and a strong military; "infusions of U.S. technology and investments in infrastructure," as former Indian envoy Lalit Mansingh told the press on July 14, are necessary for India to "become a major global player." These Indian needs -- along with concerns over the Indian Ocean's security -- form the context that led New Delhi on June 29 to sign a 10-year defense agreement with Washington. Strategic partnerships are not intended to challenge the U.S. directly, but rather to obtain economic, technological and military power rapidly. Thus, India's strategy is not contradictory. On the contrary, it is a sophisticated policy whose endeavor is to create the necessary balance of power in its geostrategic environment in order to concentrate on economic, technological and military matters indispensable to its emergence as a true great power. [See: "Great and Medium Powers in the Age of Unipolarity"]

    Interestingly, as the Wall Street Journal reports, U.S. President George W. Bush clearly said that the United States is involved in helping India "become a world power" -- which could be a sign of Washington's gradual acceptance of an embryonic multipolarity in Asia. However, U.S. fundamental interests in developing better relations with India are the necessary containment of China, and New Delhi's help in the war against militant Islamic groups -- a need that is growing stronger due to the unstable political landscape in Pakistan. [See: "India: A Rising Power"]

    Project Seabird

    Such a political and diplomatic framework is the background of India's ambitious Project Seabird, which consists of the Karwar naval base, an air force station, a naval armament depot, and missile silos all to be realized in the next five years.

    Indian Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on May 31 that the naval base INS Kadamba in Karwar, Karnataka state will protect the country's Arabian Sea maritime routes. Kadamba will become India's third operational naval base, after Mumbai and Visakhapatnam. Six frontline Indian naval ships, including frigates and destroyers, took part in the commissioning. Kadamba extends over 11,200 acres of land, along a 26-km stretch of sea front, and it will be the first base exclusively controlled by India's navy. Eleven ships can be berthed at Kadamba once the first phase of it is achieved; 22 ships after the second phase of construction will be completed around 2007, according to INS Kadamba's first Commanding Officer Commodore K.P. Ramachandran as reported in the international media. Moreover, the new harbor is designed to berth ultimately 42 ships and submarines once completed.

    The geopolitics of the Arabian Sea and the Western Indian Ocean largely explain India's determination in such an $8.13 billion enterprise. The China-Pakistan-India triangle is more than ever the Arabian Sea's decisive geostrategic setting. For the Chinese, this trilateral relationship is crucial for two reasons: from the point of view of energy security, the Arabian Sea and Pakistan are Beijing's access points to the oil-rich Middle East; from the perspective of military security, Pakistan provides China an effective counter-balancing partner in front of India's ambitions.

    Therefore, faced with geographic constraints, the Chinese successfully proposed to Islamabad back in 2001 the sharing of the Gwadar naval base. This latter serves the Chinese purposes in three ways: first, it serves as a tool to secure Beijing's access to the Gulf's resources; second, it is a useful military base to counter Washington's influence in Central and South Asia: in fact, the Sino-Pakistani agreement came into being just four months after U.S. troops entered Kabul in 2001; third, Gwadar functions as an excellent wedge between India and the Middle East and as an offset against India's naval power.

    Sino-Pakistani cooperation has contributed to accelerating India's plans to regain the upper hand in the Western Indian Ocean.

    India and U.S.-China Competition

    The slowly escalating competition between the U.S. and China has helped to create a fertile environment for India's ambition to gain status as a great regional power. Cooperation with China has become one of the most discussed issues in India's business community for a number of reasons, but the loudest talk has been the opportunities based in combining India's "software" economy with China's "hardware" economy. There are also geopolitical motivations for India to align itself with China. Both countries favor multipolarity: for Beijing, this trend will help to weaken U.S. influence in its sphere of influence; for New Delhi, this shift creates an environment for it to gain influence over its near-abroad.

    However, there are drawbacks for India to aligning too closely with either power. Washington has often touted the "natural alliance" between the two expansive, multi-ethnic democracies, but it is on military issues that India would most like to develop its relationship with the U.S. During the recent tsunami relief effort, the two states' navies worked together, which helped to cement their budding military-to-military ties. The U.S. would like for India's navy to serve as a bulwark against China as Beijing becomes more active in the Indian Ocean. Also, there are some areas where the U.S. Navy cannot operate, such as the Malacca Straits, where India's presence might be seen as less threatening than that of the U.S.

    However, there are drawbacks to aligning too closely with either power for India. On energy security, India and China have found cooperation to be easy in Iran, but, as finding new sources of oil becomes more difficult, there are bound to be areas of friction. For example, China views the Andaman Sea off Myanmar's coast as an important source of oil to fuel the economic expansion of China's western provinces. However, New Delhi sees building a port at Dawei, Myanmar as a major component to its future security strategy for the region. China's presence in the area is an unwelcome development for India.

    Washington's relationship with two of India's neighbors, Iran and Pakistan, is the major sticking point in their relationship. The U.S. prefers to starve out the current government in Iran, but India sees the country as an important source of energy for its expanding economy. Washington's support of Pakistan's military since September 11, 2001, has been protested loudly and repeatedly by India. However, the U.S. is unlikely to abandon this support because the Central Asian countries aligned with China in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (S.C.O.) have recently signaled that they favor a U.S. withdrawal from the region. Because of this, the U.S. will now need Pakistan's support even more for the success of its operations in Afghanistan.

    Even though Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Bush announced on July 18 a new agreement for the U.S. to cooperate with India's civilian nuclear industry in return for international oversight and a continued moratorium on nuclear weapons testing, Washington's support for New Delhi's nuclear industry will continue to be tempered by India's unwillingness to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

    In this environment, India has been very successful in using strategic partnerships with both Washington and Beijing to further its interests on the Indian Peninsula and Indian Ocean. For the near term, New Delhi can be expected to emphasize points of agreement with China and the U.S., while looking to gain better positioning for itself in the region.

    Another Interested Player: Russia

    India's increasing ambitions in the Western Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf will most likely draw in actors other than the U.S., China and Pakistan. The Russian Federation will no doubt assume greater importance for India as a major source of military hardware that is currently fueling India's drive for a blue water navy. Since the flagship of Karwar, INS Kadamba is a Russian-built aircraft carrier with Russian-designed Mig-29 aircraft, India will rely on Moscow for a major portion of spare parts and maintenance in the short and medium run.

    India's growing naval ambitions represent an expanding area of interest for Russian manufacturers. Currently, China is a major customer for Russian-made submarines, surface ships and surface-to-surface weapons systems that are adding to Beijing's growing naval strength. Since Karwar, INS Kadamba is expected to accommodate an increasing number of military ships, India may augment its indigenous production capacity with ever-growing numbers of Russian-made vessels.

    This may spark a naval race in the Western Indian Ocean if China places its most advanced vessels in Pakistan's Gwadar Port. The two countries have much to gain from cooperation in the business and trade sphere, and an outright military clash between their navies is unlikely. However, the two could be drawn into a confrontation if the vessels of other navies, aligned to either state, get involved in a conflict.

    If more political and military problems develop between India and Pakistan, then even a growing rapprochement with China may not prevent a dangerous escalation for New Delhi. Washington may find itself powerless to act in this case, as it will be unwilling to compromise both its tactical relationship with Islamabad and its growing "alliance of need" with New Delhi. On the other hand, Russia may well benefit from such a scenario, as it has experience in supplying two belligerents fighting each other at the same time. Moscow sold weapons to both Iraq and Iran in the 1980s when the two countries were at war. Presently, Russia will be content in selling naval ships and technology to both India and China, even as the two states may be inching towards competition in the strategically important Western Indian Ocean.

    There is much to gain from cooperation for India and China when it comes to shipments of oil from the Persian Gulf. A major disruption of such flow -- whether from an intentional military escalation by the two states or even from a combination of factors having less to do with both countries, such as an Iranian military action or a terrorist attack -- will have negative consequences for the economies of both countries. Peaceful shipments of oil and gas are in everyone's interests. Still, the construction and use of both Karwar and Gwadar will certainly invite some form of competition, as India and China may view each other's minor advancements in naval technology, number of vessels or any other technical factor as a less-than-benign show of strength.

    The dynamics of the region still call for a balance of power approach rather than a straight alliance. China-Pakistan cooperation will figure prominently for Indian decision-makers, just as India's warming relationship with Washington may be a concern for China's People Liberation Army planners. The construction of both Karwar and Gwadar may signal both India's and China's readiness to upgrade their naval strength from brown water to blue water capability, but cordial relations between both states may be no guarantee of the peaceful use of the Western Indian Ocean.

    Relying more and more on advanced military technology that is not currently indigenously produced by both states, India may turn to Russia to supplement its increasing naval needs. This may enhance Moscow's status in the region, as well as offer the possibility of countering Washington's current undisputed naval primacy in that part of the world.

    Conclusion

    The rise of India as a major power, coupled with the better-known -- and frequently analyzed -- Chinese rise, is changing the structure of the world system. Not only is U.S. "unipolar" hegemony in the Indian Ocean facing a challenge, but the strategic triad U.S.-Western Europe-Japan, which has ruled the international political economy for the past few decades, is now also under question. Nonetheless, when confronting the new reality, Washington seems eager to help India rise in order to counter Beijing's growing influence. Moreover, India's increasing power is also a part in the process of a major shift occurring in international relations, from U.S.-based unipolarity to a "multifaceted multipolarity," which could be the prelude of a new multipolar order. [See: "The Coming World Realignment"]

    In this transition phase, the Indian Ocean's security will be a crucial issue. Massive military build-ups have already started, and the risks of miscalculations by the traditional and new great powers are getting higher. We can expect the South Asian region to be one of the system's key areas to be watched in the next decade.

    Report Drafted By:
    Adam Wolfe, Yevgeny Bendersky, Dr. Federico Bordonaro
     
  5. PakSniper

    PakSniper SENIOR MEMBER

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    No, the reserves are in China but in dollars. Also, know besdies the reserves US in debt to China.

    They are integrated no doubt. But their is another rising global market which is the EU as well.

    Yes, Dollar is widely used, also know Euro's value is higher than the dollar as of right now. China has a vast market that is unexplored, such as the ME and Asia and Africa and some parts of Europe.

    Also, the reason why the dollar is on top is cause a valuable resource "Oil" is traded with dollars, if it's traded in another currency, the US economy and dollar hemonogy will be gone. This willn't hurt the oil producers but those holding the dollars, and once calls come in for money collection it will be impossible for US to pay their debt.

    Watch Business in China program forgot what channel, China tends to buy less US products cause most of them are produced at home, and US products are to expensive.

    We already seen it 3 weeks ago when the market was hit, and I live in US and study Business management and let me tell you its not a healthy market at home as of right now, the US economy is to sensitive a little jerk kills alot. The financial market is hit "very hard" this time around, but as US is struggling the rest of the world markets are moving on, read interviews of Alan Greenspan, even he has said the US could be heading into the recesion.

    Before commenting on my field in Business you must go and learn a lot more, it's not as simple you make it look as if US is the lone market.

    -----------------------------------
    Below is my point, China will come in. But for financial reasons US can't get into conflict with China, to much at stake.

    " For the Chinese, this trilateral relationship is crucial for two reasons: from the point of view of energy security, the Arabian Sea and Pakistan are Beijing's access points to the oil-rich Middle East; from the perspective of military security, Pakistan provides China an effective counter-balancing partner in front of India's ambitions.

    Therefore, faced with geographic constraints, the Chinese successfully proposed to Islamabad back in 2001 the sharing of the Gwadar naval base. This latter serves the Chinese purposes in three ways: first, it serves as a tool to secure Beijing's access to the Gulf's resources; second, it is a useful military base to counter Washington's influence in Central and South Asia: in fact, the Sino-Pakistani agreement came into being just four months after U.S. troops entered Kabul in 2001; third, Gwadar functions as an excellent wedge between India and the Middle East and as an offset against India's naval power.

    Sino-Pakistani cooperation has contributed to accelerating India's plans to regain the upper hand in the Western Indian Ocean."
     
  6. Adux

    Adux SENIOR MEMBER

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    Dragon,

    China's reserves are invested the US Treasuary Notes, which in turn gives a IOU Notes.. Euro's value has nothing to do with Dollar's power in trading. Look at the number of countries having Euro as it reserves. The whole EU market is not as big as US, nor is it or any other market capable of covering the vaccum created if the US Market aint there. the US is multi trillion dollar market. A 3-4 % growth in US Economy has more real value than 10% chinese Economy. Small Recoverable fluctuations in the Index can be absorbed by Chinese,NIKKI, LSE and BSE etc, but complete rundown of the US Market will bring down Chinese and the world economy. China's is already reeling under the pressure of NPA's, cuz of Bad Credit management, I suggest you speak about that to your teacher.

    Please dont flash your resume, as you have no idea about my education or field of Expertise. So can we have the discussion without them.

    And I rest my case, cuz you have a lot to learn
     
  7. PakSniper

    PakSniper SENIOR MEMBER

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    The People's Bank of China said reserves rose to US$818.9 billion ($1.1 trillion) at the end of December from US$769 billion at the end of September and US$610 billion a year earlier.

    China has been investing its reserves in US government debt and held US$247 billion in treasury bonds at the end of October, making it the largest investor after Japan.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10363958
    -------
    Hence not all the money is in the US, their is a difference between investing and holding reserves (the money is held in China).

    So, as I rest my case you have alot to learn. Read the article of the link I provided, it will give you in-debt info on the US dollar and Europe.
     
  8. Adux

    Adux SENIOR MEMBER

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    Where did I Say complete Investment? 1/3rd of Investment in US Treasuary Bonds, and rest in dollars, what happens to those dollars when US dollar loose value. You can use that as Toilet paper.
     
  9. PakSniper

    PakSniper SENIOR MEMBER

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    When you said their reserves are in US, other than that you didn't provide any other argument. You made it sound everything was in US which it wasn't, you need to be more clear next time.

    What matters is the 1/3 in US bonds for holding their debt + adding more reserves with the trade surplus, hence why you have US crying to revalue their RMS.

    About those dollars when it looses value, China also loses their value of reserves, same for other countries who have US dollars as reserve hence why some are changing their reserves to other currencies like Kuwait did their reserves to have them at least 12-15% in Euro (should have seen how EU stock market jumped, when the news came out).
     
  10. Adux

    Adux SENIOR MEMBER

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    Yes, I know about Kuwait, Also Understand the level of integration between Euro and US Markets, therefore US will downfall will have a impact in Eu market.But as of Now, China hasnt changed it to Euro. Nor has any other country in a subtantial manner, so your argument is moot. You are comparing differnet things,you still havent proved to me, on how US engaging China in War npo, Would affect US Economy more and lesser on CHina, It actually affects China more, They can throw way that 1/3rd of their IOU's, US will loos a lot of its capital ex made in China.
     
  11. Contrarian

    Contrarian ELITE MEMBER

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    Times change, things change, apart from nukes, Pakistan would not be in a position to even take the fight in Indian territory. Its only made now to defend itself.
     
  12. Contrarian

    Contrarian ELITE MEMBER

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    Ahem, what do you think that USN and Jap Navy will sit on their behinds while China starts to project power in the IOR? Or is it just China which has the right or the mind to play strategic games?
    US and Japan will and even are fully supporting IN in the IOR. China cannot have enough bases or projection capabilities to match IN in IOR. Since you say that China has a growing naval and power projection might, allow me to say again what adux has said, we are expanding our navy bloody fast as well.
    And if China actually starts making bases here which have actual physical power projcetion capacity on the lines of Diego Garcia(not the coco islands) then allow me to say that India will stsart negotiations with Vietnam etc and Japan to put the ball squarely in China's own area.

    You are simply banking on teh fact that a "rising superpower" will not let its intersts be harmed. Well, like it or not, India is growing too.


    That is the reason the Russian carrier was made to undergo a change in its infrastructure. To make it into a true carrier. There is extensive change on Vikramaditya. No one said anything about blockading Chinese ports, similarly Chinese dont got nothing comming to even dream about comming close to India.

     
  13. Adux

    Adux SENIOR MEMBER

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    Malay,

    India doesnt need any support in IOR from USN JSDF regarding PLAN
     
  14. Contrarian

    Contrarian ELITE MEMBER

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    I didnt say they needed help. I said USN and JapN would be more than working overtime to ensure that either they or their allies get bases, etc as much to put a hedge on China's expansion anywhere.
     
  15. Adux

    Adux SENIOR MEMBER

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