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PKR plummets to all-time low of 255 against USD (268.3 Now!)

HAIDER

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This is bad 😢 I think we are entering hyperinflation period.

The rupee has no ceiling now. It will just keep increasing. I guess people will always ask the question- how will you pay back the 20-25$ bn payment that is due for every year for the next three years if you are not even running a positive primary CAD?

The closest equaivalence to this was what happened in Turkey in the 90s. The military there did a soft coup against Erbakan. He played it smart. The follow up govt could not handle the economy. There was hyperinflation after which AKP got the mandate.

I think something like that might be playing out here.
Do you know how much Pakistan has to pay in 2023,2024,2025 ????? only two options.
1. IMF forgives all loans.
2. cut massive imports and increase massive exports up. Which is not possible.

Pakistan to pay back $100 bn to China by 2024​

By Obaid Abrar Khan
September 29, 2017



ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has to payback $100 billion to China by 2024 of total investment of $18.5 billion, which China has invested on account of banks’ loan in 19 early harvest projects mostly relating to energy sector under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The sources in Chinese Embassy told ‘The News’ that loans which China had given to Pakistan were considered as concessional loans, having special subsidy from the Chinese government. These loans are not the burden on Pakistan economy, as these constitute only 1.1 percent of total Pakistan foreign debt.
The sources said that Chinese financial assistance to Pakistan made a big contribution in strengthening Pakistan’s economy. Four years back GDP of Pakistan was 3.6 but now it reached 5.2, this reflected the fact that CPEC has played a major role in the economy of the country,” sources added.
 

VCheng

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I am no one's lawyer but yanking scholarships away in the middle of course for a whole bunch of students does sound like a serious breach of promise and may be corrupt too. We are talking of peanuts, really, here anyway (from the state's perspective).

The excuse given was the government has no foreign exchange left to complete its commitments. Then all foreign currency accounts were seized after some time as the crisis worsened. As Yogi Berra would say, this crisis is deja vu all over again for some of us. :D

Of course, they still had money to finance NS's extravagances while in London. The doorman got more foreign exchange in tips than what I needed to complete my degree. That insult is what got to me.
 

ziaulislam

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I am no one's lawyer but yanking scholarships away in the middle of course for a whole bunch of students does sound like a serious breach of promise and may be corrupt too. We are talking of peanuts, really, here anyway (from the state's perspective).
Not when the country bankrupts...which it did in 1998

Being on a scholarship is privelidege not right as most of our American friends will say
 

Realtalk108

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how in the world can Pakistan plug a 40 billion dollar hole in its finances every year,

Pakistan has a 5-10 billion USD CAD, not 40 billion.

~$50 billion import vs ~$25 billion export + ~$20 billion remittance.

Islamabad should have cut subsidies and devalued the PKR loooong back. If you are consistently running a CAD year after year then it's obvious that the currency is overvalued. The Afghan tap kept the show on the road during the last decade. Now it's over.

The external debt right now is as good as written off. Something along the Argentine scenario will be attempted next if all goes well.

Essentially Pak will have to restrict its import in such a way that the deficit doesnt cross that figures. Cut the coat according to the cloth. In growth terms, it might mean 2-3 years of the "Hindu" rate of growth.

The economy will outright contract for next 1-2 years as it adjusts from the shock. In nominal dollar term it will be 5+ years before they come back to 2022 level. It's gonna be a hard landing.
 

epebble

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Not when the country bankrupts...which it did in 1998

Being on a scholarship is privelidege not right as most of our American friends will say
Did SBP release foreign exchange for tourists and pilgrims in that year? How about foreign jaunts of government officials and other bigwigs? If yes, that tells the priority of the government.
 

ziaulislam

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I am grateful to my country for giving me cheap education
Did SBP release foreign exchange for tourists and pilgrims in that year? How about foreign jaunts of government officials and other bigwigs? If yes, that tells the priority of the government.
Well our sir still loves Nawaz sharif what can I say?
 

villageidiot

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Not when the country bankrupts...which it did in 1998

Being on a scholarship is privelidege not right as most of our American friends will say
What about this part below? It was pocket change, like he said. Meanwhile forget about 1998, even today badshah huzoor ke 2 naye camp offices tayar kiye jaa rhe hn. Medicine import band he and God knows how many luxury cars for the hard-working cabinet that brought us to this verge of greatness where we stand today.

Of course, they still had money to finance NS's extravagances while in London. The doorman got more foreign exchange in tips than what I needed to complete my degree. That insult is what got to me.
 

VCheng

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What about this part below? It was pocket change, like he said. Meanwhile forget about 1998, even today badshah huzoor ke 2 naye camp offices tayar kiye jaa rhe hn. Medicine import band he and God knows how many luxury cars for the hard-working cabinet that brought us to this verge of greatness where we stand today.

Think of all the patients who cannot get their medicines and will fall prey to complications while the criminals drive around in shiny new Mercedes and you may get some idea of my continuing outrage.

I am beyond what anyone thinks of my story, thank God, but what is being repeated here and now again only motivates to strive to let people know that such crises are not new, just as I told the truth about the military's shenanigans and CPEC and engineered changes of civilian facades and so many other things over the past decade on PDF.

I have received negative ratings from title holders here and ridicule from their equally misguided lackeys as we can see even here, and I can still smile since I have been proven right time and again. That is enough for me. :D
 

Chute

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Think of all the patients who cannot get their medicines and will fall prey to complications while the criminals drive around in shiny new Mercedes and you may get some idea of my continuing outrage.

I am beyond what anyone thinks of my story, thank God, but what is being repeated here and now again only motivates to strive to let people know that such crises are not new, just as I told the truth about the military's shenanigans and CPEC and engineered changes of civilian facades and so many other things over the past decade on PDF.

I have received negative ratings from title holders here and ridicule from their equally misguided lackeys as we can see even here, and I can still smile since I have been proven right time and again. That is enough for me. :D

A few folks are rocks to the crashing waves and inclement weather....while most others are pebbles.

As a distanced observer of this particular forum, I have grown to admire the former of which I count you among.

Truth doesnt care about negative ratings, bans and foul emotionalist dissonance of whatever scale.
 

Skull and Bones

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Pakistan to pay back $100 bn to China by 2024​

By Obaid Abrar Khan
September 29, 2017



ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has to payback $100 billion to China by 2024 of total investment of $18.5 billion, which China has invested on account of banks’ loan in 19 early harvest projects mostly relating to energy sector under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The sources in Chinese Embassy told ‘The News’ that loans which China had given to Pakistan were considered as concessional loans, having special subsidy from the Chinese government. These loans are not the burden on Pakistan economy, as these constitute only 1.1 percent of total Pakistan foreign debt.
The sources said that Chinese financial assistance to Pakistan made a big contribution in strengthening Pakistan’s economy. Four years back GDP of Pakistan was 3.6 but now it reached 5.2, this reflected the fact that CPEC has played a major role in the economy of the country,” sources added.
Wow, Pakistan really is a cash cow for the chinese.
 

epebble

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Pakistan has a 5-10 billion USD CAD, not 40 billion.

~$50 billion import vs ~$25 billion export + ~$20 billion remittance.

Islamabad should have cut subsidies and devalued the PKR loooong back. If you are consistently running a CAD year after year then it's obvious that the currency is overvalued. The Afghan tap kept the show on the road during the last decade. Now it's over.

The external debt right now is as good as written off. Something along the Argentine scenario will be attempted next if all goes well.



The economy will outright contract for next 1-2 years as it adjusts from the shock. In nominal dollar term it will be 5+ years before they come back to 2022 level. It's gonna be a hard landing.

Do you know how much Pakistan has to pay in 2023,2024,2025 ????? only two options.
1. IMF forgives all loans.
2. cut massive imports and increase massive exports up. Which is not possible.

Pakistan to pay back $100 bn to China by 2024​

By Obaid Abrar Khan
September 29, 2017



ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has to payback $100 billion to China by 2024 of total investment of $18.5 billion, which China has invested on account of banks’ loan in 19 early harvest projects mostly relating to energy sector under China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The sources in Chinese Embassy told ‘The News’ that loans which China had given to Pakistan were considered as concessional loans, having special subsidy from the Chinese government. These loans are not the burden on Pakistan economy, as these constitute only 1.1 percent of total Pakistan foreign debt.
The sources said that Chinese financial assistance to Pakistan made a big contribution in strengthening Pakistan’s economy. Four years back GDP of Pakistan was 3.6 but now it reached 5.2, this reflected the fact that CPEC has played a major role in the economy of the country,” sources added.
1. Not going to happen, they will be compelled to reschedule, however reluctantly. No write-offs though. They don't do that. If push comes to shove, there will be a few asset transfers via long term 'lease'.

2. What is the arithmetic behind $100 billion is only 1.1% of Pakistan's foreign debt? That means Pakistan's total foreign debt is $10 Trillion, which is absurd.
3. The comment on GDP (growth?) is disingenuous. It probably measures in Rupees which is depreciating and not per capita, hence appears to grow because of population growth. The real story is rather dismal.
YearGDP Per Capita (US $)Annual Growth Rate (%)
2021$1,53813.12%
2020$1,360-8.25%
2019$1,482-11.69%
2018$1,6782.85%
 

Realtalk108

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O Bhai. Pakistan imports in 2021-22 were $80 billion. Kis kue (water well) me soo Raha hy

My numbers are from 2020. Covid year but $80 billion sounds too high. Source?

1675266274389.png


2021 figures are as follows -

Import - $63 billion
Export - $32 billion
Remittance received - $31 billion
Remittance paid - $0.2 billion

So 2021 had a marginally positive BoP. But prior years (2018, 2019) all had $5-$10 billion BoP deficit. 2021 improved due to significant uptick in remittance. 2022, obviously has gone back into deficit.

All data are from WB.
 

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