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Pakistan's GDP | Growth, Forecasts and discussions.

Discussion in 'Pakistan Economy' started by RAMPAGE, Apr 14, 2015.

  1. RAMPAGE

    RAMPAGE SENIOR MEMBER

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    GDP = $247 billion (Page-2 of Monetary
    Policy Compendium SPB, Sep-2014)

    This is how it will look like if we can sustain 6% growth rate which is doable with tax reforms, by meeting the our energy needs, successful completion of Pak-China Economic Corridor and by shifting labour-intensive industry to Pakistan.

    GDP for 2014 = $247 (in billions)

    2015 = 261.82

    2016 = 277.5292

    2017 = 294.1089

    2018 = 311.8317


    Base year has not been changed.

    @HRK
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2015
  2. Winchester

    Winchester SENIOR MEMBER

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    The World Bank forecast for the next three years is less than 5 %

    Forecast Table
     
  3. HRK

    HRK PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT

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    Dear its not that easy & simple ....but I would appreciate your concerns and effort ....
     
  4. RAMPAGE

    RAMPAGE SENIOR MEMBER

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    Yeah got it. The inflation rate for the last 25 years is almost 90%. :P

    Lets limit that forecast.
     
  5. HRK

    HRK PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT

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    In economic forecasting you don't just study economic variables but non-economic variables as well .... like Political stability, Government & Administration, Social factors etc etc .... so its not an easy job ....remember it as a rule of thumb NEVER MAKE ECONOMIC FORECASTING FOR GREATER THEN 3 YEARS PERIOD ....
     
  6. RAMPAGE

    RAMPAGE SENIOR MEMBER

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  7. farhan_9909

    farhan_9909 PROFESSIONAL

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  8. AsifIjaz

    AsifIjaz FULL MEMBER

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    The GDP estimates will increase drastically if
    1) China corridor materializes in the given time
    Imagine the amount of traffic going to China and Central asia... (Road tax, taxes on fuel), associated industries like maintenance and food at rest areas

    2) Thar, electricity from there comes online in 2017/18 and increased by 300 MW per year for 4 years (as expected)
    Only Engro can do it. I can not forsee any other company coming up with a plan in the near future

    3) No major floods occur

    4) Coal reserves in Punjab (small), Badin or Balochistan are also utilized...

    5) Proposed Apparel park in Punjab or the China economic zone materializes.
     
  9. Hurter

    Hurter FULL MEMBER

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    Is it possible to increase GDP target in a year? If yes then how?
     
  10. New World

    New World SENIOR MEMBER

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    @farhan_9909
    sir, as I'm not the student of economy can you tell me what is the game if base year?
    like pak did in 05-06 .
     
  11. ziaulislam

    ziaulislam ELITE MEMBER

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    nothing surprising. its the same as it was before.
    PPPP will usually score a growth between 3-4 with focus on agriculture and service sector
    while PML N will score between 3.5-4.5 with focus on infrastructure and production

    both are corrupt and both dont do any reforms for the purpose of corruption
     
  12. ajpirzada

    ajpirzada PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT

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    yes. government should borrow money from outside pakistan and spend inside pakistan.

    GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + (Exports - Imports)

    When Government Spending goes up, without anything else going down, GDP will go up as well.

    so the answer to your question is yes. But, unfortunately, tomorrow that money will have to be paid back and we will be in trouble especially if the money borrowed wasnt put to some good use.

    here is the growth rate of the Industrial Sector

    [​IMG]

    for this fiscal year so far, growth rate in the industrial sector seems to be even less than 2%
     
  13. ziaulislam

    ziaulislam ELITE MEMBER

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    it was merely a comment on historical data of 90s, so far it seems it will be repeated, with poorer performace due to power situation.
    the industry expansion will remain 2-4%, it has been less in PPPP era, over all growth rate below 5%

    what i meant is that i have no idea why people expect "robust growth" from PML N when it has failed to deliver on two occasions and so far has failed to do so too!

    regardlessly spikes of growth will not help Pakistan and doesnt show sustainable growth or good policy making.
     
  14. Shamain

    Shamain SENIOR MEMBER

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    You know i am at that particular point where i have started concurring with some economists that gdp is an abusrd way to measure economy health.
    Phew but i got no substitute either.
    I mean gdp never takes into account wealth accumalation and even distribution. That bites me hard.

    Can u tell me right now what is our gdp base year. Sorry i m just so ignorant a man could be.
     
    Last edited: Apr 19, 2015
  15. ajpirzada

    ajpirzada PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT

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    thats true. but its always difficult to have one index which could tell you everything about the economy.. Maybe you want to look at HDI (Human development index) or Multi dimentional poverty index for social health of the economy