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Pakistan's exports declined by 24% in july 2022.

Mav3rick

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Bro my point in the previous post is to point out the error of your argument. The exports did not go down to control CAD. Exports being chopped down does not help CAD. Stopping imports for the export industry is also equivalent to shooting yourself in the foot.

This is not about populist rhetoric. It is about the fact that this govt (PDM) sucks and has screwed over the economy including the hard earned improvement in export industry that PTI accomplished. They don’t have dollars not because of oil or whatever- but because remittances have dropped by abt a billion a month. This is because overseas Pakistanis don’t trust them.

So frankly, you come off as totally partisan and biased my friend. Maybe go read your previous posts and understand what we are saying.
I was quite happy to let @Wood educate you on fiscal matters but just had to step in and correct your dumb rhetoric; overseas Pakistanis do not send money to Pakistan out of love for Pakistan but because it feeds their families back home! It is not like they are out there trying to do Pakistan any favors, it is simply that the remittances is in foreign currency which is favorable to Pakistan but 100% proceeds of that money goes to the families of overseas Pakistanis in Pakistan and NOT into the Government accounts!

So, baseline, trust or no trust, remittances cannot decrease unless countries like Saudi Arabia kick out Pakistanis in bulk; on the contrary, remittances will continue to increase YoY. One good thing that FATF did for Pakistan is it forced us to close hundi/hawala businesses so lots of the money had to come in through banking channel (formal channel) as opposed to the informal channel in the previous years which means that it is only documented better now but the money was always coming and growing every year. COVID19 also gave us a many benefits such as favorable terms for our exports when other markets were not producing, lowering of imports because of the same reason, USD 2.3+ Billion SDR from IMF as assistance (not loan and not repayable) with no strings attached etc., and the fact that travel was severely restricted for well over a year because of which people overseas were FORCED to send money through Banks as opposed to them travelling to Pakistan themselves with cash (or through cash mules) and finally Pakistanis unable to travel abroad on vacations or otherwise also meant that foreign currency was retained within Pakistan.

The fact is that remittances have continued to increase and will continue to increase yearly regardless of who is in the Government. RDA is also posting significant growth which means overseas Pakistanis are more than happy to continue to send money to Pakistan (however, RDA is benefiting overseas Pakistanis more than it benefits Pakistan in the long run).
 

Mav3rick

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Nope this is rubbish


The real reason we are in this world of pain is remittances- here is the news saying as much which Dawn tries to bury.

May 2022:- $2.332bn
Compared to

April 2022:- $3.125bn
May 2021:- $2.506bn

They should be panicking but instead trying to put spin on it that oh it’s still above 2 bn$. Typical duffers.

Remittances during the month of June 2022 were 2.76 Billion USD after USD 2.33 Billion in May which is generally the pattern after every Eid as is the pattern that remittances increase from average which was the case during months building up to Eid.
 

AZ1

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I was quite happy to let @Wood educate you on fiscal matters but just had to step in and correct your dumb rhetoric; overseas Pakistanis do not send money to Pakistan out of love for Pakistan but because it feeds their families back home! It is not like they are out there trying to do Pakistan any favors, it is simply that the remittances is in foreign currency which is favorable to Pakistan but 100% proceeds of that money goes to the families of overseas Pakistanis in Pakistan and NOT into the Government accounts!

So, baseline, trust or no trust, remittances cannot decrease unless countries like Saudi Arabia kick out Pakistanis in bulk; on the contrary, remittances will continue to increase YoY. One good thing that FATF did for Pakistan is it forced us to close hundi/hawala businesses so lots of the money had to come in through banking channel (formal channel) as opposed to the informal channel in the previous years which means that it is only documented better now but the money was always coming and growing every year. COVID19 also gave us a many benefits such as favorable terms for our exports when other markets were not producing, lowering of imports because of the same reason, USD 2.3+ Billion SDR from IMF as assistance (not loan and not repayable) with no strings attached etc., and the fact that travel was severely restricted for well over a year because of which people overseas were FORCED to send money through Banks as opposed to them travelling to Pakistan themselves with cash (or through cash mules) and finally Pakistanis unable to travel abroad on vacations or otherwise also meant that foreign currency was retained within Pakistan.

The fact is that remittances have continued to increase and will continue to increase yearly regardless of who is in the Government. RDA is also posting significant growth which means overseas Pakistanis are more than happy to continue to send money to Pakistan (however, RDA is benefiting overseas Pakistanis more than it benefits Pakistan in the long run).
then why govt is going for mini budget?


Also where you saying remittance going good, we had two eids in pdm govt lets see now
 

Mav3rick

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then why govt is going for mini budget?


Also where you saying remittance going good, we had two eids in pdm govt lets see now
Is it sufficient to say that Miftah is even more retarded than PTI Finance Ministers? And that Miftah + Shahbaz Sharif are perhaps even worse than Tarin + Imran Khan?

The post is misleading - please go and put the last 1 yr of remittances each month into a graph. Remittances reached 3+ billion under PTI. Dropped nearly a billion in May and are still not more than last years remittances in June.

Yes record remittances for the year due to PTI. Last three months have been a disaster.
Hopefully, this official data from SBP will shut your trap:

1659796928588.png


And for the complete picture for yearly comparison:

1659797080518.png
 

AZ1

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Is it sufficient to say that Miftah is even more retarded than PTI Finance Ministers? And that Miftah + Shahbaz Sharif are perhaps even worse than Tarin + Imran Khan?


Hopefully, this official data from SBP will shut your trap:

View attachment 868449

And for the complete picture for yearly comparison:

View attachment 868450
yeah Imran and shaukat tarin were worse yet you saying how good RDA is which is the initiative of imran khan.
 

Mav3rick

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Also where you saying remittance going good, we had two eids in pdm govt lets see now
Please see the facts above. During Eid times, people send more remittances for their families and hence the spike during the months leading up to Eid-ul-Fitr; a small increase in remittances is also a natural occurrence during Eid-ul-Adha. However, there is a drop immediate thereafter and after that things return to normal.

yeah Imran and shaukat tarin were worse yet you saying how good RDA is which is the initiative of imran khan.
Bhai jaan, even a broken clock is correct twice every day!

It's not like EVERYTHING that Imran Khan did was wrong or worse than PML. He definitely did something very good too.
 

Ssan

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Please see the facts above. During Eid times, people send more remittances for their families and hence the spike during the months leading up to Eid-ul-Fitr; a small increase in remittances is also a natural occurrence during Eid-ul-Adha. However, there is a drop immediate thereafter and after that things return to normal.


Bhai jaan, even a broken clock is correct twice every day!

It's not like EVERYTHING that Imran Khan did was wrong or worse than PML. He definitely did something very good too.
Dude, I don’t know what you mean by educate here- you speak as if MashAllah you guys have PhDs in Econ. Do you have any formal training in economics?

Let me be clear- the remittance numbers are looking bleak. They have started to go down. You may be right that a lot of remittances are going to remain because people from abroad send remittances to family at home- and have no choice. But that’s not the whole picture. In fact, remittances from the gulf have remained constant and are expected to go down, that from western countries has increased and that portion is not out of necessity of supporting people at home.

So no I’m so sorry, the numbers do display that remittances have gone down. Things are looking bleak- this is obvious if you have any understanding of how to read in between the lines in official communications made by govt.

For example, that financing for this year is to be a whopping 31 bn $. This is up from 12-15 bn$ during PTI last three years. You do the math.

For the record, I don’t blame Miftah for increasing prices on commodities. I do blame PDM in general for the sort of politics of inflation they did in the last three years that has now come to bite them in the ***. I am not for this populist politics of inflation. But let’s be real about the shitposting we saw on this forum in the last three years from all you PDM supporters and now you can’t face your own bullshit.
 

Ssan

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And for the complete picture for yearly comparison:

View attachment 868450
I’m very happy you posted this. This alone proves my point. Do the following very basic time series analysis. Look at year on year growth in remittances for every month here. Separate out the last three months that PDM has been in control (i.e. July, June, May). Do you see any growth for 2022?

Now compare the other 9 months that are PTI reign, what do you see?

MashAllah, posting official stats as if you guys are Aristotle or something
 

ziaulislam

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@ziaulislam

Patwaris believe that exports increase fiscal deficit and CAD

1. Under circumstances, exports can increase fiscal deficit- typically industries where competitiveness is boosted by generous fiscal subsidies- India's sugar exports (at certain points of time only) is one such examples.
2. Exports don't increase CAD of course- consumption does.

Regards
Under specific circumstances anything can happen.

Dude, I don’t know what you mean by educate here- you speak as if MashAllah you guys have PhDs in Econ. Do you have any formal training in economics?

Let me be clear- the remittance numbers are looking bleak. They have started to go down. You may be right that a lot of remittances are going to remain because people from abroad send remittances to family at home- and have no choice. But that’s not the whole picture. In fact, remittances from the gulf have remained constant and are expected to go down, that from western countries has increased and that portion is not out of necessity of supporting people at home.

So no I’m so sorry, the numbers do display that remittances have gone down. Things are looking bleak- this is obvious if you have any understanding of how to read in between the lines in official communications made by govt.

For example, that financing for this year is to be a whopping 31 bn $. This is up from 12-15 bn$ during PTI last three years. You do the math.

For the record, I don’t blame Miftah for increasing prices on commodities. I do blame PDM in general for the sort of politics of inflation they did in the last three years that has now come to bite them in the ***. I am not for this populist politics of inflation. But let’s be real about the shitposting we saw on this forum in the last three years from all you PDM supporters and now you can’t face your own bullshit.
Remittances down as investment have stalled for variety of reasons
۔
Exports down because industries are not getting gas or oil
 

SD 10

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Jango

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i though i heard him say UAE invested 1 billion dollars into psx, but Pakistanis have a weird concept of investment! I think it will be a loan so intervention yeah but plausible deniability!

Then that confirms that the 'investement' is actually the UAE and possibly Qatar buuying shares in SOE's through a managed sale.
 

Mav3rick

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Dude, I don’t know what you mean by educate here- you speak as if MashAllah you guys have PhDs in Econ. Do you have any formal training in economics?

Let me be clear- the remittance numbers are looking bleak. They have started to go down. You may be right that a lot of remittances are going to remain because people from abroad send remittances to family at home- and have no choice. But that’s not the whole picture. In fact, remittances from the gulf have remained constant and are expected to go down, that from western countries has increased and that portion is not out of necessity of supporting people at home.

So no I’m so sorry, the numbers do display that remittances have gone down. Things are looking bleak- this is obvious if you have any understanding of how to read in between the lines in official communications made by govt.

For example, that financing for this year is to be a whopping 31 bn $. This is up from 12-15 bn$ during PTI last three years. You do the math.

For the record, I don’t blame Miftah for increasing prices on commodities. I do blame PDM in general for the sort of politics of inflation they did in the last three years that has now come to bite them in the ***. I am not for this populist politics of inflation. But let’s be real about the shitposting we saw on this forum in the last three years from all you PDM supporters and now you can’t face your own bullshit.
Well, we will find out within a few weeks to a few months how the remittances turn out, even though remittances were up in June.

As for the last part of your post, firstly I can only speak for myself and secondly, should I not have been speaking about the deteriorating condition of the economy by Imran Khan while he was in power, first because of his appointing a nonsense person as a Finance Minister and delaying going to IMF and later-on for not honoring his own words and committing suicide after going to IMF?? And that was just the beginning, it continued to go downhill from there. But it did not start going down from there, it started when the establishment removed Dar and the useless Miftah was posted; that was the actual beginning of the downfall.......and yet we again have the same dumb Finance Minister.

I’m very happy you posted this. This alone proves my point. Do the following very basic time series analysis. Look at year on year growth in remittances for every month here. Separate out the last three months that PDM has been in control (i.e. July, June, May). Do you see any growth for 2022?

Now compare the other 9 months that are PTI reign, what do you see?

MashAllah, posting official stats as if you guys are Aristotle or something
And you have problems with posting of official stats too? Should I just be making up stats like PTI does like the 22 Billion they left in reserves?

Then that confirms that the 'investement' is actually the UAE and possibly Qatar buuying shares in SOE's through a managed sale.
That's what Miftah said in the media presser yesterday at Karachi chamber of commerce. He also said that there was a buy-back clause (but I say why buy it back, UAE will ensure that the SOE continues to grow), we should have even more investment in PSE by foreign friends.
 

AZ1

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G3-S3.png

From Jan 2022 to March2022 we have $300 million increase continously No Eid.

After April to June we have 2 Eids people send money may june seen good due to eids people sending money back.

We are short of $100 million as compare to last july 2021.

We are short of $700 million in exports

total short of around $900 or $1Billion approx in july.

$300 million world bank has heldup also.


So with this we would be around $7-$9Billion short yearly.
 

Jango

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That's what Miftah said in the media presser yesterday at Karachi chamber of commerce. He also said that there was a buy-back clause (but I say why buy it back, UAE will ensure that the SOE continues to grow), we should have even more investment in PSE by foreign friends.

Yes...sell a 20 PKR share for 9 PKR, and then buy it back two years later for 30 PKR...sound strategy!

BTW, IK was doing populist measures and appeasing the masses...so why has the government taken back the fixed retail tax amounting to 70 billion? Couldn't stand to the pressure? Is say behtar POS based taxation hi nhn thi?
 

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