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ziaulislam

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Apr 22, 2010
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19 b is misrepresentation
Had PTI govt not reign in last 3 months it would have been 24b$(2b average for april-july)
Regardless doesnt matter post 2023

Educated mass of punjab will vote for PMLN

Also controlling CAD without big boast in productivity coupled with international crisis leading to global high inflation would mean PTI will lose it somewhat sport in urban punjab leading a PMLN clean sweep ..
Couple with south punjab or PPP u will see a new govt
 

farok84

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May 26, 2010
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Tender:


1625823286188.png

Evaluation:


1625823749147.png



Pakistan has cancelled this tender. It's a bold but calculated move motivated by last two days trend showing 5-10% decrease in spot lng prices (TTF/ JKM). Remember in February, we cancelled a tender and refloated a new one instead, that risk paid off and we got cheaper quotes as a result. Lets hope if we can get the same results this time. It's a fairly risky but appreciated move by Petroleum Division.

It also begs for a carefully articulated road map for upcoming winter's procurement plan, if they have any, unfortunately PD has a proven tendency for adhoc/ band-aid solutions than a deliberated and long term strategy. If we are getting these prices (+$15/mmbtu) in September/ October, it's unlikely to get any cheaper in winters.

It will be interesting to see whether PD can source cargoes (upto 2) from QP starting October/ November at 10.2%, as was foretold at the signage of PTI's lng contract in February. (Note 2 out of 3 lowest bids for October, priced at $13.9875, are by QP Trading, the spot lng trading arm of QP)
 

Jango

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Sep 12, 2010
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Tender:


View attachment 760790
Evaluation:


View attachment 760791


Pakistan has cancelled this tender. It's a bold but calculated move motivated by last two days trend showing 5-10% decrease in spot lng prices (TTF/ JKM). Remember in February, we cancelled a tender and refloated a new one instead, that risk paid off and we got cheaper quotes as a result. Lets hope if we can get the same results this time. It's a fairly risky but appreciated move by Petroleum Division.

It also begs for a carefully articulated road map for upcoming winter's procurement plan, if they have any, unfortunately PD has a proven tendency for adhoc/ band-aid solutions than a deliberated and long term strategy. If we are getting these prices (+$15/mmbtu) in September/ October, it's unlikely to get any cheaper in winters.

It will be interesting to see whether PD can source cargoes (upto 2) from QP starting October/ November at 10.2%, as was foretold at the signage of PTI's lng contract in February. (Note 2 out of 3 lowest bids for October, priced at $13.9875, are by QP Trading, the spot lng trading arm of QP)
Indeed a bold move, and where there is room for cost cutting.

At the start of the year, this strategy paid off, but now with the increase in demand globally and industries slowly coming back online, it would be interesting to see if the trend continues.

Maybe @niaz can contribute further.
 

farok84

FULL MEMBER
May 26, 2010
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Indeed a bold move, and where there is room for cost cutting.

At the start of the year, this strategy paid off, but now with the increase in demand globally and industries slowly coming back online, it would be interesting to see if the trend continues.

Maybe @niaz can contribute further.
Hi,

The market is too tight, and we might see this decision backfiring upon us, nonetheless it is an appreciative move on PD's part, a sly move, even if it fails to achieve desired outcome.

Pakistan needs to review it's baseline Rlng requirements and have to think beyond the guaranteed off-takes of ~800mmscfd. With private players in China willing to pay upto $2/mmbtu premiums (over TTF), securing lng vloumes for next two years (26 cargoes starting this winter), market is going to maintain its bullishness. The last week's drop in spot prices have adjusted themselves and have now risen back.

It should be noted that for past couple of tenders we have seen a new disturbing trend. Instead of getting a traditional discounted quote of 5-10% over JKM, we are getting a 20-25% premium on JKM. This aggressiveness is dictated less by the global supply chain woes and more due to cunningness of suppliers and their realization of Pakistan's dire energy situation. To mitigate this, we have resorted to short sighted but quick and manageable fix of utilizing more and more liquid fuels (FO/ Diesel).

To get out of this conundrum, in short term, we require a complete overhaul of our current procurement regime, and get out of band-aid solutions mindset, for example, instead of going for floating spot tenders every two months, we should look into tendering a one year contract for upto 2 cargoes on a fixed price, plenty of suppliers/ traders will be happy to accommodate us, even at $8-10/mmbtu, we will be in a better situation than our current scenario, and will not have to brace for market volatility, for long term, a massive infrastructure boost is required. This infra boost is capital intensive but with friendly investment policies, we can rope in private investors.

The next 2-3 years, will be massively challenging for Pakistan's energy market, till our planned infra projects like, lng terminals, onshore storage facilities and pipelines come online, traversing through these tricky times will be a daunting task for PD.
 

niaz

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Jun 18, 2006
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Indeed a bold move, and where there is room for cost cutting.

At the start of the year, this strategy paid off, but now with the increase in demand globally and industries slowly coming back online, it would be interesting to see if the trend continues.

Maybe @niaz can contribute further.
I am afraid low LNG price days are over. According the my info (about a week old) August LNG deliveries for Japan /Korea were valued at around $14/- per mm Btu.

Unless UAE agrees to increasing the OPEC production limits (last OPEC meeting on output levels was called off on July 5, 2021 without agreement due to UAE objection); despite summer being traditionally low demand season for LNG & LPG; I don't think Pakistan is likely to get cheap LNG bids.

Hydrocarbon supplies remains tight on account of increasing demand from China & India. Lets wait & see.
 
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